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2025 Compensatory Picks Potential

The 2024 league year in the NFL officially starts on Wednesday, March 13. The two day negotiating period of free agency commences on Monday, March 11, and it is then when we would typically get first knowledge of the largest contracts to be signed. With those contracts signed come the assignment of some players as compensatory free agents (CFAs), and thus the generation of compensatory picks for the 2025 NFL Draft. Now that we know which players will be effectively taken out of free agency via tags, thus it’s time to take a look at what comp pick potential teams might be looking at.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a high quantity of pending UFAs at 21, and while none stand out, there are several that could get CFA eligible contracts elsewhere. This group includes AJ Epenesa, Leonard Floyd, Gabe Davis, Tyrel Dodson, Tim Settle, and Micah Hyde. Combine this with a roster that’s all in on the current players that might not have much room to sign too many new players, and that could be a recipe for multiple lower round comp picks. Potential: Moderate

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s pending UFA count is very high at 26, and leading that list by far is Christian Wilkins, who surprisingly did not receive a franchise tag by the Dolphins. Protecting a high comp pick for his departure should be the Dolphins’ priority, and with several UFAs that could go to other teams (Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Andrew Van Ginkel, Raekwon Davis, Brandon Jones, DeShon Elliott), the Dolphins could make some low level CFA signings of their own if they leave for CFA worthy contracts, while protecting their high pick from Wilkins departing. Potential: Moderate

New England Patriots

Placing the transition tag on Kyle Dugger took him out of CFA eligibility unless the Patriots were to rescind the tag before he signs it. That leaves Mike Onwenu as the new leading candidate, with other players like Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne, Josh Uche or Myles Bryant looking for new contracts. But with a new head coach for the first time in a long time, and plenty of money to spend, will we see a regime that’s different from the very comp pick friendly one of the past? Potential: Low

New York Jets

The biggest UFA question for the Jets will be how they handle Bryce Huff’s expiring contract after coming offer a ten sack season. If he’s retained, the list of pending UFAs gets thin, but there are a few players like Jordan Whitehead, Connor McGovern, or Mekhi Becton who could get CFA worthy deals that could protect a possible comp pick should Huff leave if they keep their own CFA signings to a minimum. Potential: Low

Baltimore Ravens

Another season, another slate of high quality and quantity of potential CFAs for the Ravens. And this is even after they placed the franchise tag on Justin Madubuike. Patrick Queen, Geno Stone, Jadeveon Clowney (albeit capped at 5th rounder due to accruing 10 seasons), Gus Edwards, Devin Duvernay, John Simpson, Rock Ya-Sin, and even older players like Ronald Darby, Kyle Van Noy, and Odell Beckham Jr. could be at play. With a deep roster as is even without these players, the Ravens as usual are sitting pretty to do what they do here. Potential: Very High

Cincinnati Bengals

With Tee Higgins tagged, the Bengals could prioritize Jonah Williams as a CFA to account for should he leave, as tackles are always in high demand. DJ Reader’s quad injury could hamper his next free agency journey after a strong season beforehand. Tyler Boyd, Chidobe Awuzie, and Drew Sample could also pad CFA departures for Williams should the Bengals want to sign CFAs of their own. Potential: Moderate

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a high quantity of CFA eligible pending UFAs at 23, but none of them figure to stand out as notable. Should Cleveland decide to withhold from free agency, perhaps they could see a low round comp pick or two come their way, but this might be a good season for them to not care too much about it. Potential: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers also do not have any notable pending UFAs, and their total number is on the low end at just 13. Unless they feel this is a season to entirely sit out of free agency, there’s not likely much of a reason to prioritize comp picks this time around. Potential: Very Low

Houston Texans

The Texans have been renowned in recent years for signing many low level veterans to one year contracts, and that bears out this offseason with a very high 28 pending UFAs hitting the market. Having that many of them raises the odds of generating some CFA worthy contracts, but none of them are likely to be in the high rounds, with Jonathan Greenard possibly being the highest after the team extended Dalton Schultz. With CJ Stroud on a rookie contract and plenty of money to spend, their best avenue to take the next step may be to hit free agency heavy. Potential: Low

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a low quantity of pending UFAs at 14, but there could be some quality within there–Kenny Moore and Julian Blackmon are a pair of defensive backs that could see CFA worthy deals even in a glut of DB talent. Zack Moss also hits the market alongside an abundance of RBs. And don’t count out Gardner Minshew for getting a decent CFA contract even as a backup due to a strong season coming in relief for Anthony Richardson. There’s not a lot to work with, but some if the Colts wish to eschew free agency. Potential: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars

Josh Allen received an expected franchise tag, which leaves the door open for Calvin Ridley to hit unrestricted free agency. While there’s a few other pending UFAs that could get CFA worthy deals, such as Ezra Cleveland or Dawuane Smoot, with only 13 pending UFAs total, the Jaguars would have to go lean on CFA signings of their own if they want to protect a potential high comp pick should Ridley leave. Potential: Low

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are in a similar place to the Texans in that they have a high quantity of pending UFAs (23), but not much quality within them. They also have a quarterback on his second season poised to be the starter in Will Levis that the team may wish to build around in free agency righter than working on comp picks for two drafts down the road. Potential: Low

Denver Broncos

Lloyd Cushenberry looks to be the leading center in unrestricted free agency if the Broncos let him get there. Josey Jewell has been a useful and underrated linebacker that could see attention elsewhere if he’s not retained. Beyond that, there’s not a lot for Denver to work with here, but after a heavy foray into free agency last offseason, indications may be that they won’t repeat that in 2024, which could generate comp picks if they don’t retain their key UFAs. Potential: Moderate

Kansas City Chiefs

Much has been said about Chris Jones’s contribution to the Chiefs’ defense, but it was sensible for Kansas City to instead use the franchise tag on the younger L’Jarius Sneed. That could leave a path for Jones to sign a large contract elsewhere, and establish a high comp pick going the Chiefs’ way. Beyond Jones, Willie Gay, Drue Tranquill, Derrick Nnadi, Donovan Smith, Tershawn Warton, and even punter Tommy Townsend could garner CFA worthy contracts. Unless the Chiefs want to go shopping in the CFA market themselves–which they are not averse to doing–they have plenty of paths for comp pick generation. Potential: High

Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs will not be franchise tagged a second time, and that will set him up to be the Raiders’ leading CFA candidate. But with only 17 total pending UFAs, and the only notable ones being a handful of marginal offensive linemen like Andre James, Jermaine Eleumenor, and Greg Van Roten, there’s likely not much for the Raiders to work for in comp picks as they try to build a stronger roster. Potential: Very Low

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are poised for much change with a new head coach and general manager that may have different visions from the previous regime. That might cause a fair number of CFA worthy UFAs to depart: Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Murray, Alohi Gilman, Michael Davis among them. The question will be whether any of their departures are offset by arrivals of CFAs to turn over the roster. Potential: Low

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys tend to prioritize retaining their own over venturing too far in unrestricted free agency. This approach tends to fetch them comp picks for players they were unable to come to agreement on extensions with. This season, this includes Tony Pollard (who was not given another franchise tag), stalwart Tyron Smith (who will also be capped at a 5th round for being a 10+ accrued season veteran), and Tyler Biadasz (another leading UFA at center). Add on a few other peripheral players like Jourdan Lewis or Jayron Kearse, and the usual path to comp picks for Dallas is there despite having only 16 total pending UFAs. Potential: Moderate

New York Giants

Saquon Barkley will not receive another franchise tag, and he should headline a deep running back market should he not stay in New York. Also not getting tagged is Xavier McKinney, who could also headline a deep safety market. Padding them will be a total of 24 pending UFAs that could give the Giants some leeway to shop for CFAs if enough of their own sign CFA eligible contracts to pad for comp picks should Barkley and McKinney leave. Potential: Moderate

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles overflowed the comp pick chart last season with nine CFAs that departed, and signed none. This time, while they have 20 pending UFAs, they are either older (Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham) or lower profile (D’Andre Swift, Nicholas Morrow). The Eagles have mostly committed to their roster for the long term with a series of contract structures designed to be all in, and even if the comp picks they receive aren’t high, they could still be numerous. Potential: Moderate

Washington Commanders

With a new head coach and new general manager, change could be on the way in DC, and with plenty of money to burn, that could also indicate an array of CFA signings at hand. With Kamren Curl perhaps the most prominent pending UFA for the Commanders in an abundant safety market, and not much else beyong him, this could be a good season for the Commanders to overload on veterans, particularly if they take a rookie quarterback 2nd overall. Potential: Very Low

Chicago Bears

The Bears appear poised to reset the rookie quarterback clock thanks to being gifted the 1st overall pick from the Panthers, which can give them room to be aggressive in free agency to continue to improve the roster. And with only 14 pending UFAs, the best of which might be Darnell Mooney or Equanimeous St. Brown, it’s unlikely that they’ll need to run over comp picks to do so. Potential: Very Low

Detroit Lions

Jonah Jackson and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Jr. are a couple of Lions that could get decent CFA contracts elsewhere. Charles Harris, Romeo Okwara, and Donovan Peoples-Jones could also attract CFA contracts even if they’re on the 7th round end. But their list of CFA eligible contract candidates got pared down due to Teddy Bridgewater retiring, Halapoulivaati Vaitai becoming ineligible due to his contract being shortened, and Emmanuel Moseley signing an extension. If the Lions want comp picks, they may have to hold back in signing CFAs of their own. Potential: Low

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have only 12 pending UFAs, but some are notable enough to consider–Jon Runyan Jr., Darnell Savage, AJ Dillon, Keisean Nixon. Because the Packers have a long history of prioritizing comp picks, they can never be ruled out in getting some, even if the quantity of candidates they have to work with is low. Potential: Moderate

Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins will lead the way with a 3rd round CFA contract if he leaves Minnesota. Right behind him will be Danielle Hunter coming off another double digit sack season. Dalton Risner, KJ Osborn, DJ Wonnum, and Marcus Davenport are other Vikings from 2023 that could see good contracts elsewhere if not retained. Suffice to say, the Vikings will be poised very well to make their 2025 draft slate abundant if they so choose. Potential: Very High

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are yet another team that has a decent number of pending UFAs, but none particularly notable. Barring a surprise signing, there’s not much to talk about with them beyond the typical observation that they could get low round comp picks if they hold off on free agency. But that doesn’t mean that it’s the advisable thing to do if they have outlets to improve the team there. Potential: Low

Carolina Panthers

Brian Bruns was taken off this list after he was franchise tagged. This leaves Jeremy Chinn and Frankie Luvu as their most prominent CFA candidates. DJ Chark also can’t be discounted for another decent contract. But comp pick consideration could be offset by the need to improve a roster that was the worst in the NFL in 2023, plus with fewer draft picks due to trading up for Bryce Young. Potential: Low

New Orleans Saints

The Saints remain devoted to keeping core players on their roster, no matter how much they amortize the cap dollars associated with their contracts to do so. This regularly leaves them with few CFA worthy players hitting free agency. But on the other hand, filling up on incumbent players also tends to make them avoid free agency. In the past couple of seasons this has generated some comp picks for them, but typically they do not care much about them, and this could be one of those seasons where they revert to their mean. Potential: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Antoine Winfield Jr. tagged and Mike Evans extended, all eyes will be on Baker Mayfield to see if he signs an extension with the team. If he doesn’t, then he’ll easily generate a 3rd round comp pick for the Bucs even on a lower end starting quarterback contract. But even if he does, there will be other players such as Lavonte David, Devin White, Aaron Stinnie Ryan Neal, and Greg Gaines that could also net CFA contracts if not retained. The precise quality of comp picks will hinge on what Mayfield decides to do, but the quantity feels like it will be there for Tampa. Potential: High

Arizona Cardinals

Marquise Brown leads a list of 17 pending UFAs as he comes off a rookie contract that saw him traded from Baltimore. Josh Woods and Antonio Hamilton are two other players that played more than 50% of the snaps to watch out for. But with not much else here, and an abundance of draft picks to use this season, it might be at the end of April when they decide to take significant steps to improve the roster. Potential: Low

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been very adept at leveraging comp picks to improve their roster with skilled drafting–in 2023, they got an extremely positive example of that with Puka Nacua. This season, they don’t have as many high profile pending UFAs as they did before, but even if they’re low round comp picks, players like Coleman Shelton, Ahkello Witherspoon, Jordan Fuller, or Kevin Dotson could keep their modus operandi going. Potential: Moderate

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers traded a 3rd round 2024 comp pick to acquire Chase Young on the last season of his contract, and it very much felt like a move in which they hoped to recoup some of that draft capital with a future comp pick in 2025 if they chose not to extend him. Oren Burks and Ray-Ray McCloud were underrated contributors for the team recently. And San Darnold can’t be counted out for a CFA eligible contract even as a backup. This slate of pending UFAs doesn’t look as lucrative for San Francisco as last season, where they had nine leave, but there’s still plenty to work with. Potential: Moderate

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks also made an aggressive trade for Leonard Williams, giving up 2nd and 5th round picks to the Giants in order to get him on the final season of his contract. Recouping some of that value with a comp pick could be on their mind. Noah Fant, Evan Brown, Damien Lewis, and maybe Drew Lock even on a backup QB contract could also be in play. The big question with Seattle though is that with Pete Carroll no longer there, will John Schneider shape a different vision for the roster than he has before that involves free agency considerably–especially after also cutting a spate of players in Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, and Will Dissly. Potential: Moderate

Projecting The 2024 Compensatory Picks

This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2024 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

TeamRdCompensated Departure
JAX3Jawaan Taylor
PHI3Javon Hargrave
SF3Jimmy Garoppolo
BUF3Tremaine Edmunds
BAL4Ben Powers
NO5David Onyemata
GB5Allen Lazard
NO5Marcus Davenport
PHI5Isaac Seumalo
PHI5Andre Dillard
KC5Andrew Wylie
DAL5Connor McGovern
NO5Kaden Elliss
CIN5Vonn Bell
SF5Samson Ebukam
LAR5Baker Mayfield
PHI5T.J. Edwards
JAX6Arden Key
LAR6Matt Gay
DAL6Dalton Schultz
SF6Jimmie Ward
SF6Azeez Al-Shaair
GB6Jarran Reed
LAR6Nick Scott
LAR6A’Shawn Robinson
GB7Dean Lowry
CIN7Samaje Perine
NYJ7Nate Herbig
NYJ7Mike White
TB7Mike Edwards
LAC7Drue Tranquill
NYJ7Dan Feeney
Over 32-pick limit; not awarded
JAX7Chris Manhertz
DAL7Noah Brown
JAX7Marvin Jones
GB7Robert Tonyan

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 36 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge presence of any comp picks in excess of 32, as this list does with strikethrough text.

Over the past three years, the official release has happened just before the start of free agency. Last year it was the Thursday before on March 9, the Monday before two years ago on March 15, and the Thursday before again three years ago on March 10. There have also been multiple times when the official release happens on the Friday before the NFL Scouting Combine. This year, that is scheduled for February 27-March 4, so the Friday before would be February 23. The range of the release could be anywhere after the Super Bowl (February 12) but before the start of free agency (March 13).

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”. This draft, I will continue to use the average of the estimated number of leaguewide players in previous sets of compensatory picks, dating back to 2014. This average comes out to 1,965, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

RoundPercentileOverall RankRepresentative Player
3rd/4th95th (top 5%)98Harold Landry
4th/5th90th (top 10%)196Jack Conklin
5th/6th85th (top 15%)295Malik Hooker
6th/7th75th (top 25%)492Cody Barton
7th/Qualify65th (top 35%)688William Gholston

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

None

4th/5th

  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196
  • David Onyemata (New Orleans): #197
  • Allen Lazard (Green Bay): #198

5th/6th

  • Baker Mayfield (Los Angeles Rams): #286
  • TJ Edwards (Minnesota): #289
  • Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #295
  • Charles Omenihu (San Francisco): #299
  • Arden Key (Jacksonville): #310

6th/7th

  • Rakeem Nuñez-Roches (Tampa Bay): #491
  • Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #492
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (Tampa Bay): #506
  • Dean Lowry (Green Bay): #509
  • Samaje Perine (Cincinnati): #514

7th/Qualifying

None

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

Perhaps the most compelling story among compensatory free agents this season has been the play of Baker Mayfield, who because the starting quarterback for the Bucs, and took them all the way to a playoff win in the wild card. He signed for a base salary of $4 million for this season, and that alone would have placed his contract in the 6th round. But there were also $4.5 million in incentives that he could earn. I estimate that he earned $2.85 million of those incentives, as illustrated in the tweet before, and the total of $6.85 million he should have earned in 2023 should push his contract into the 5th round.

There was also an instance of a CFA being traded, and in this case, a player went back to the team that he left in free agency: after leaving Kansas City for the New York Jets, Mecole Hardman was traded back to the Chiefs in the middle of the season. This should cause Hardman to cancel himself out in the Chiefs’ cancellation chart, and leave them with one fewer comp pick than anticipated–in this case a 5th rounder for JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving for Foxboro.

Charles Omenihu will also be a player that could affect the Chiefs’ projected comp pick, as well as one for the 49ers. His six game suspension for violation of the personal conduct policy regarding domestic violence limited the snaps he could play, and has placed his contract on the 5th/6th round bubble. This projection has his contract in the 6th round, but if it falls in the 5th instead, San Francisco will get a 5th for his departure instead of a 6th for Jimmie Ward going to Houston, while Kansas City will still get a 5th but it will be a few picks lower, with the compensated player being Smith-Schuster instead of Andrew Wylie.

Tampa Bay also has a possibility to upgrade the 7th round pick it’s projected to get to a 6th rounder. If both Rakeem Nuñez-Roches and Sean Murphy-Bunting get their contracts valued in the 6th round, that will give the Bucs a 6th rounder for Murphy-Bunting’s departure, as the signing of Greg Gaines would instead cancel the departure of Mike Edwards to Kansas City.

Finally, there could be a bit of drama on who receives the Mr. Irrelevant pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It should be a nailbiter between either the Jets, for Dan Feeney leaving for Chicago, or the Jaguars, for Chris Manhertz leaving for Denver. According to OTC’s compensatory formula page, the two players are within a point or two of each other. It is unclear how the compensatory formula resolves ties–of which Feeney and Manhertz could end up in–and after every official release is made, I regularly have to clean up the order of a few comp picks due to the resolution of tiebreakers. Most of the time this is trivial, as it just moves picks one spot up or down. But in the case of the 32nd vs. 33rd comp pick, it could mean the difference between getting a comp pick or not. OTC’s formula has the Jets coming on top with Feeney, but it could be wrong and say the Jaguars have it with Manhertz instead.

2024 Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates

When NFL observers start to get to work on looking how teams may change for the next season, the first place to reference is to look at the list of pending free agents coming from contracts that are expiring. This is easy because it’s very known as to when that expiration occurs. But what is less easy, but just as important, is figuring out which players are going to become free agents because their contracts are instead terminated.

Therefore, this article is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months, using some metrics that include recent work done on determining contract fate. This article is an update from a similar article in August that will additionally use the regular season OTC Valuation metric to add an estimate of performance quality on the field in 2023 to try to forecast a more accurate picture.

It must be stressed that this list is not attempting to be predictive. It is guessed that most of the players on this list will not be cut. Many could see their contract restructured, and a few others might take a pay cut to stay. The hope is that list can provide a guide as to lessening surprise on why certain players may be cut. This list also does not intend to limit possible cuts to these players–some other players, a few of whom could be mentioned below, do not show up due to the history of their contract fate being lower than the threshold described below.

With that, this list is built from the players who:

NameTeamPositionAgeAPY2024 Cash Due2024 Guaranteed SalarySeasons Completed/
Contract Length
2023 OTC Valuation Above Starter MedianOdds Of Negative Fate
Andy DaltonPanthersQB37$5,000,000$4,000,000$2,000,0001/2($23,895,000)52.5%
Jarrett StidhamBroncosQB28$5,000,000$6,000,000$1,000,0001/2($23,784,000)52.5%
Taylor HeinickeFalconsQB31$7,000,000$7,000,000$01/2($22,555,000)52.5%
Tyus BowserRavensEDGE29$5,500,000$5,500,000$03/4($11,201,000)63.6%
Matt JudonPatriotsEDGE32$11,250,000$7,500,000$01/2($9,695,000)60.2%
Anthony NelsonBuccaneersEDGE27$5,000,000$4,500,000$01/2($9,510,000)60.2%
Emmanuel OgbahDolphinsEDGE31$16,350,000$15,800,000$02/4($9,352,000)51.5%
Tim PatrickBroncosWR31$10,000,000$9,900,000$02/3($9,208,000)71.6%
Russell GageBuccaneersWR28$8,500,000$10,000,000$01/2($9,208,000)76.1%
Deonte HartyBillsWR27$4,750,000$4,110,000$01/2($8,479,000)76.1%
Joey BosaChargersEDGE29$27,000,000$22,000,000$03/5($8,455,000)53.7%
Hunter RenfrowRaidersWR29$15,850,000$11,882,000$01/2($8,304,000)76.1%
Mike WilliamsChargersWR30$20,000,000$20,000,000$02/3($8,173,000)71.6%
Charles OmenihuChiefsEDGE27$8,000,000$7,400,000$01/2($8,146,000)60.2%
Zay JonesJaguarsWR29$8,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($7,448,000)71.6%
Nick ChubbBrownsRB29$12,200,000$12,200,000$02/3($7,072,000)86.1%
Nyheim HinesBillsRB28$4,500,000$5,000,000$01/2($7,072,000)57.6%
Deatrich WisePatriotsEDGE30$5,500,000$5,000,000$03/4($6,740,000)63.6%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingChiefsWR30$10,000,000$12,000,000$02/3($6,552,000)71.6%
Bryan MoneSeahawksIDL29$5,517,500$5,900,000$01/2($6,532,000)64.4%
Dean LowryVikingsIDL30$4,250,000$4,000,000$01/2($6,532,000)64.4%
Allen RobinsonSteelersWR31$7,500,000$10,000,000$01/2($5,237,000)76.1%
C.J. UzomahJetsTE31$8,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($5,090,000)71.1%
Robert WoodsTexansWR32$7,625,000$6,500,000$1,500,0001/2($5,034,000)76.1%
Folorunso FatukasiJaguarsIDL29$10,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($4,854,000)64.4%
Aaron JonesPackersRB30$11,500,000$12,000,000$01/2($4,810,000)57.6%
John Franklin-MyersJetsEDGE28$13,750,000$13,900,000$02/4($4,594,000)51.5%
Shaq ThompsonPanthersLB30$6,300,000$5,600,000$2,000,0001/2($4,277,000)57.5%
Avonte MaddoxEaglesCB28$7,500,000$7,500,000$02/3($4,184,000)70.1%
Sam HubbardBengalsEDGE29$10,000,000$8,150,000$02/4($3,643,000)51.5%
Davon GodchauxPatriotsIDL30$10,400,000$8,300,000$01/2($3,618,000)64.4%
Jimmie WardTexansS33$6,500,000$6,000,000$2,000,0001/2($3,501,000)57.6%
Tracy WalkerLionsS29$8,333,333$8,000,000$02/3($3,483,000)75.0%
Christian KirkJaguarsWR28$18,000,000$16,500,000$02/4($3,477,000)61.5%
Eddie JacksonBearsS31$14,600,000$14,150,000$03/4($3,378,000)74.4%
Cameron HeywardSteelersIDL35$16,400,000$16,000,000$03/4($3,305,000)63.6%
Mo Alie-CoxColtsTE31$5,850,000$5,920,000$02/3($3,256,000)71.1%
D.J. JonesBroncosIDL29$10,000,000$10,000,000$02/3($3,118,000)64.4%
Younghoe KooFalconsK30$4,850,000$4,000,000$02/5($3,038,000)100.0%
Diontae JohnsonSteelersWR28$18,355,000$10,000,000$01/2($2,952,000)76.1%
Carlton DavisBuccaneersCB28$14,833,333$14,500,000$02/3($2,927,000)70.1%
Taysom HillSaintsTE34$10,000,000$10,000,000$02/4($2,924,000)61.9%
Tre’Davious WhiteBillsCB29$17,250,000$10,400,000$02/4($2,830,000)57.9%
Budda BakerCardinalsS28$14,100,000$14,600,000$01/2($2,765,000)57.6%
Brian AllenRamsC29$5,000,000$7,000,000$01/2($2,601,000)58.7%
Marcus MayeSaintsS31$7,500,000$7,500,000$02/3($2,410,000)75.0%
Will DisslySeahawksTE28$8,000,000$7,000,000$02/3($2,339,000)71.1%
Shaquil BarrettBuccaneersEDGE32$17,000,000$17,000,000$03/4($2,183,000)63.6%
De’Vondre CampbellPackersLB31$10,000,000$10,750,000$02/5($2,178,000)53.1%
John CominskyLionsIDL29$4,250,000$5,000,000$500,0001/2($2,077,000)64.4%
Justin ReidChiefsS27$10,500,000$10,750,000$02/3($1,505,000)75.0%
Alvin KamaraSaintsRB29$15,000,000$11,800,000$03/5($1,317,000)83.3%
Julian LoveSeahawksS26$6,000,000$5,680,000$01/2($924,000)57.6%
Mason ColeSteelersC28$5,250,000$4,750,000$02/3($826,000)60.9%
Byron MurphyVikingsCB26$8,750,000$8,850,000$01/2($773,000)65.5%
Kyzir WhiteCardinalsLB28$5,000,000$5,000,000$1,000,0001/2($751,000)57.5%
Jonnu SmithFalconsTE29$7,500,000$6,500,000$01/2($474,000)63.1%
Mark AndrewsRavensTE29$14,000,000$11,000,000$02/4($393,000)61.9%
Donte JacksonPanthersCB29$11,726,667$10,622,500$02/3($333,000)70.1%
Logan ThomasCommandersTE33$8,021,667$6,565,000$02/3($298,000)71.1%
Demarcus LawrenceCowboysEDGE32$13,333,333$10,000,000$02/3($161,000)71.4%
Jonathan JonesPatriotsCB31$9,500,000$9,000,000$4,000,0001/2($25,000)65.5%
Brandin CooksCowboysWR31$10,000,000$8,000,000$01/2$076.1%
Patrick RicardRavensFB30$3,750,000$4,000,000$02/3$061.5%
David AndrewsPatriotsC32$4,750,000$5,500,000$03/4$114,00063.6%
Justin SimmonsBroncosS31$15,250,000$14,500,000$03/4$431,00074.4%
Tyler ConklinJetsTE29$6,750,000$6,750,000$02/3$504,00071.1%
Austin CorbettPanthersRG29$8,750,000$6,250,000$02/3$526,00081.0%
Nate HerbigSteelersRG26$4,000,000$4,000,000$01/2$587,00070.3%
Courtland SuttonBroncosWR29$15,000,000$13,500,000$02/4$730,00061.5%
Mark GlowinskiGiantsRG32$6,100,000$5,700,000$02/3$746,00081.0%
Jerome BakerDolphinsLB28$12,500,000$11,133,000$02/3$802,00078.1%
Ted KarrasBengalsC31$6,000,000$6,400,000$02/3$833,00060.9%
Marcus EppsRaidersS28$6,000,000$6,000,000$2,585,0001/2$852,00057.6%
James ConnerCardinalsRB29$7,000,000$5,490,000$02/3$940,00086.1%
Arik Armstead49ersIDL31$17,000,000$18,260,000$04/5$1,146,00060.7%
Quandre DiggsSeahawksS31$13,000,000$11,000,000$02/3$1,146,00075.0%
Josh SweatEaglesEDGE27$13,333,333$16,000,000$02/3$1,198,00071.4%
Mitch MorseBillsC32$9,750,000$8,500,000$01/2$1,296,00058.7%
Harrison PhillipsVikingsIDL28$6,500,000$6,500,000$02/3$1,351,00064.4%
Darius SlaytonGiantsWR27$6,000,000$6,000,000$01/2$1,466,00076.1%
Kevin ByardEaglesS31$12,550,000$14,100,000$01/2$1,516,00057.6%
Rayshawn JenkinsJaguarsS30$8,750,000$9,000,000$03/4$1,611,00074.4%
Joe MixonBengalsRB28$5,750,000$5,750,000$01/2$1,772,00057.6%
Xavier WoodsPanthersS29$5,000,000$4,500,000$02/3$1,794,00075.0%
Jordan PoyerBillsS33$6,250,000$5,500,000$01/2$1,831,00057.6%
David BakhtiariPackersLT33$23,000,000$21,500,000$03/4$1,893,00066.7%
Dre Greenlaw49ersLB27$8,200,000$8,700,000$01/2$1,994,00057.5%
David Long Jr.DolphinsLB28$5,000,000$4,500,000$01/2$1,997,00057.5%
Cody WhitehairBearsLG32$10,250,000$10,250,000$04/5$2,000,00087.5%
Eric KendricksChargersLB32$6,625,000$6,500,000$01/2$2,107,00057.5%
Dallas GoedertEaglesTE29$14,250,000$14,250,000$6,000,0002/4$2,179,00061.9%
DeAndre HopkinsTitansWR32$13,000,000$14,000,000$01/2$2,264,00076.1%
David NjokuBrownsTE28$13,687,500$14,500,000$3,000,0002/4$2,328,00061.9%
Tyler LockettSeahawksWR32$17,300,000$17,000,000$02/4$2,673,00061.5%
Travis KelceChiefsTE35$14,312,500$13,000,000$02/4$3,243,00061.9%
B.J. HillBengalsIDL29$10,000,000$7,500,000$02/3$3,264,00064.4%
Jarran ReedSeahawksIDL32$4,500,000$4,470,000$01/2$3,808,00064.4%
Laken TomlinsonJetsLG32$13,333,333$13,000,000$02/3$3,921,00060.9%
Keenan AllenChargersWR32$20,025,000$23,100,000$03/4$4,644,00079.5%

One aggravating factor that will show up on this list in several places are players who did not meet starter median performance due to significant injury. On the one hand, many of those players will be seen as victims of bad luck, and will be given the benefit of the doubt to bounce back in 2024. On the other hand, teams may view the injuries on some of these other players to be a sign of decline, and thus may see that as a reason to exit from those contracts. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players in this aggravating category fall into which side of each subcategory.

But for the players that were able to contribute an expected number of snaps in 2023, their contributions may come under more scrutiny by their teams when 2024 is taken into account.

Breakdown by team

Here are the number of players each team has on this list:

  • 6: Seahawks
  • 5: Panthers, Patriots, Bills, Broncos, Steelers
  • 4: Chargers, Chiefs, Bucs, Jaguars, Jets, Eagles, Bengals
  • 3: Falcons, Ravens, Dolphins, Vikings, Packers, Saints, Cardinals
  • 2: Browns, Raiders, Texans, Bears, Lions, Cowboys, Giants, 49ers
  • 1: Colts, Rams, Commanders, Titans

While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2024. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.

Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2024 versus their 2024 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.

The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2024 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.

The teams in or near the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. As would be expected, most of these teams have made the playoffs, and several of those within are also very serious Super Bowl contenders. Regardless of how their season ends, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2024. Some fringe exceptions include the Giants, who did not do well in 2023 but also have much locked up in guaranteed salaries in players like Daniel Jones, or the Saints who nominally have not guaranteed many salaries but will do so once their annual restructures take place.

No team is dominantly placed in the top right quadrant, which would indicate teams that have plenty to spend but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Instead, what is notable is the cluster of teams on the right side, and mostly on the lower right, indicating teams that have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action might take place.

The Chargers break the graph in this regard by having over $70 million in such salary at play, but it is barely so due to Keenan Allen barely making this list as the 100th player with over $20 million in cash due in 2024. Despite turning 32 this year, Allen’s performance has been solid enough that a restructure seems more likely than being cut. Practically, Allen’s place on this list should likely be taken by Corey Linsley, who is likely to retire, but doesn’t show up due to otherwise low negative contract fate odds that can’t be foreseen in this manner.

But there are several other players alongside Allen for the team to consider: his fellow wide receiver in Mike Williams, both starting edge rushers in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa (with Tuli Tuipulotu waiting in the wings behind them) and linebacker Eric Kendricks. Yet this graph would be more extreme in bounds had the Chargers not already cut Sebastian Joseph-Day a few weeks ago. With a complete overhaul at general manager and head coach coming for the Chargers, it could also portend similar overhaul on the roster.

Meanwhile, among other teams in this cluster on the right side:

  • The Broncos need to alter some contracts, and the magnitude of such could go up if they really do move on from Russell Wilson. Tim Patrick has lost two whole seasons due to injury and may be pressured on a contract change on those grounds. DJ Jones could also see negative contract fate. But two other players on this list, Justin Simmons and Courtland Sutton, should instead be seen as extension or restructure candidates to be retained.
  • The Seahawks won’t be moving on from newly minted Pro Bowler Julian Love any time soon. Tyler Lockett and Jarran Reed only barely make this list and are above starter median, but both will be turning 32 next season. Will Dissly and Quandre Diggs may see more scrutiny in the coming weeks. So too could Jamal Adams, who barely misses the negative contract fate cut here at 48.7%.
  • For the Steelers, Allen Robinson sticks out in coming over from a trade from the Rams, and only garnering 280 yards in the regular season. Cameron Heyward and Diontae Johnson would not appear to have their contracts be in any immediate danger and would instead be restructure candidates.
  • The Packers’ amount largely consists of $21.5 million due to David Bakhtiari, who missed almost all of 2023. A decision also needs to be made on Aaron Jones, who is due $12 million and is turning 30 after gaining 656 yards in 11 games in 2023.
  • For the Jets, CJ Uzomah could be a leading cut candidate. The ultimate contract fate of John Franklin-Myers could be tied to other roster decisions, such as whether Bryce Huff will be retained. Tyler Conklin and Laken Tomlinson also show up on this list, though their OTC valuation comes up above median starter level.
  • The Jaguars see two receivers that battled injuries in Christian Kirk and Zay Jones on this list, while Folorunso Fatukasi and Rayshawn Jenkins are older defenders to consider.
  • A dominating story of the Chiefs in the regular season was a plague of dropped passes, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling could take the brunt of that criticism with $12 million in salary due in 2024. Despite turning 35 next season, it is still surprising to also see Travis Kelce barely turn up on this list.
  • The Eagles have already done most of their work in committing to players for 2024 and beyond, but one player where that commitment has not yet happened is with Avonte Maddox, who has $7 million due coming off missing most of 2023 due to injury.
  • And finally, while the Bucs have the least immediate need to make contract moves to be in compliance for 2024 among this cluster, they still see multiple players with high cash payments due making this list: Shaq Barrett ($17 million), Carlton Davis ($14.5 million), Russell Gage ($10 million, after missing all of 2023 due to injury), and Anthony Nelson ($4.5 million).

The Potential Pay Raises From 2023 Pro Bowl Honors

With voting for the Pro Bowl in its prime, and a preliminary list of leaders from the fan votes released by the NFL, here is your annual guide toward how you, as a fan (or even players, if they just so happen to read this) can maximize your Pro Bowl vote to help top players in the league earn pay raises via mechanisms in the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement.

There are two situations in the CBA where an original ballot (not as an alternate) Pro Bowl honor could result in a raise in salary:

  • Article 7, Section 4(e)(iv) creates a tier of Proven Performance Escalator that can raise the salary of a player drafted outside of the first round to the value of the 2nd round restricted free agent tender.
  • Article 7, Section 7(g)(iii-iv) calls for fifth year options on first round rookie contracts to equate to the transition tag if named to a Pro Bowl once in their first three seasons, and to the franchise tag for two or three.

Here are some of the players that could see notable raises in their salaries should they earn an original ballot Pro Bowl, grouped by conference and position. All numbers used are OTC’s estimates for the fifth year options for the 2021 first round picks, and for the franchise, transition, and RFA tenders. To maximize strategic voting, prioritize on your ballot players from the 2021 rookie class, as this will be last time they are eligible for the following pay raises.

AFC Quarterback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Trevor LawrenceFifth Year Option$23,250,000$32,960,000$9,710,000
CJ StroudFifth Year OptionTBDTBDTBD

It’s always daunting for any quarterback from the AFC to come away with a Pro Bowl, and Lawrence will also have to do so despite recently suffering a sprained ankle, but the base raise for the 5th year option that would be set is large as he seeks an extension. Despite getting the second most fan votes, it’ll be even harder for Stroud to do it as a rookie, and in any case, he’ll have two more chances to get the maximum raise in the future if he doesn’t get it now.

NFC Quarterback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Brock PurdyProven Performance EscalatorTBDTBD$2.5M

Purdy’s meteoric rise from Mr. Irrelevant to top tier quarterback will also see a meteoric rise in salary, and it would start here by locking in a much higher fourth year salary.

AFC Running Back

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Travis EtienneFifth Year Option$6,345,000$10,688,000$4,343,000

Etienne hasn’t even achieved the playtime boost to his fifth year option due to missing his rookie season to injury. Getting named to the Pro Bowl would help get his fifth year option to a much more reasonable salary.

AFC Wide Receiver

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Jaylen WaddleFifth Year Option$15,902,000$20,520,000$4,618,000
Nico CollinsProven Performance Escalator$2,992,000$4,901,000$1,909,000

The (final) opportunity should be there for the taking for Waddle, who is having an outstanding season in Miami even in spite of playing next to Tyreek Hill. Collins is one of several receivers having a strong season in Houston upon the arrival of Stroud, and with the unfortunate injury to his teammate Tank Dell, Collins could avoid some vote splitting as a result.

NFC Wide Receiver

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Devonta SmithFifth Year Option$15,902,000$20,520,000$4,618,000
Amon-Ra St. BrownProven Performance Escalator$3,242,000$4,901,000$1,695,000
Chris OlaveFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$5M-$8M

Unlike Waddle, Smith might have a more difficult time getting named while playing alongside AJ Brown, but this is the last season he has a chance to get a boost to his fifth year option. It’s also the last season for St. Brown to be able to get that PPE boost, and he is in good position to do so having just crossed the 1,000 yard mark on a high flying Lions offense. Olave got over 1,000 receiving yards last season and is on pace to beat that number this season.

NFC Tight End

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Sam LaPortaProven Performance EscalatorTBDTBD$2.5M

In his rookie season, LaPorta will have to fend off fellow Iowa alumni George Kittle and TJ Hockenson among NFC tight ends–he is third to them in yardage, but also had more receiving touchdowns than either of them.

AFC Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Rashawn SlaterFifth Year Option$20,877,000$22,976,000$2,099,000

Slater missed most of last season due to injury, but he has a chance to max out on his fifth year option raise with another Pro Bowl honor this season.

NFC Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Penei SewellFifth Year Option$17,157,000$20,877,000$3,720,000
Christian DarrisawFifth Year Option$17,157,000$20,877,000$3,720,000

The offensive rise in Detroit should be recognized all across the roster, and Sewell, OTC’s highest valued tackle, would reap the financial benefit by getting a Pro Bowl honor. Darrisaw gets a repeat mention from last season with his OTC valuation also still very high.

AFC Guard

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Quinn MeinerzProven Performance Escalator$3,242,000$4,901,000$1,695,000
Trey SmithProven Performance Escalator$3,242,000$4,901,000$1,695,000

Meinerz and Smith are guards in the AFC West that have been quietly putting together good careers, and boosts to their fourth year pay will be nice to work toward future extensions.

NFC Defensive End

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Aidan HutchinsonFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$7.5M-$10.5M

Hutchinson should be poised to start working on getting those Pro Bowl bids in a bid to max out his fifth year option salary in Seasons 2 and 3.

NFC Outside Linebacker

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Kayvon ThibodeauxFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$7M-$10M

Ironically, Thibodeaux might have a more difficult time getting name this season than Hutchinson due to playing on a struggling team, even though he has twice as many sacks thus far this season.

AFC Free Safety

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Kyle HamiltonFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3.5M-$6M
Jevon HollandProven Performance Escalator$3,242,000$4,901,000$1,695,000

Hamilton found himself on the top of the fan vote here, and getting a Pro Bowl bid now would help his cause toward maxing out his fifth year option potential. Holland runs under the radar a bit among plenty of talent on the Miami defense, but perhaps the fame that he got for pulling off turning a Hail Mary into a pick six will help his cause.

AFC Cornerback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Patrick Surtain IIFifth Year Option$16,803,000$19,475,000$2,672,000
Sauce GardnerFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3.5M

Surtain and Gardner both earned their first Pro Bowl honors last season, but the work isn’t done for them yet, as they could max out their fifth year option raises by making the honors consecutive. The priority here should go to Surtain, as he is one season further in his rookie contract than Gardner, who will also have another chance in 2024.

NFC Cornerback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
DaRon BlandProven Performance EscalatorTBDTBD ~$2.5M

Bland leads the fan vote among this position and conference, and his league breaking number of pick sixes in one season should greatly help his cause.

Which Players Could Face Negative Contract Fate In 2024?

As I continue my study into contract fate in the NFL (as described here), before the 2023 season begins I thought I’d take a look as to some veteran players whose play in 2023 should be seen with an eye as to whether that season could be their last under their current contracts. This resulting in generating a list of players that met the following criteria:

  • On a vested veteran contract (four or more accrued seasons)
  • Due at least $4 million in cash for 2024
  • With a negative contract fate of 60% or greater odds that their contracts will be terminated or cut in pay after the having completed the number of seasons on their contract.
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Contract Fate

Training camps are starting this week, and in their leadup we have seen multiple stories of some players deeming to be underpaid (Zack Martin, Chris Jones) and others deemed to be overpaid by their teams (Joe Mixon, Kevin Byard). This was leading me to consider a concept I’ll call contract fate, the outcome of multiyear contracts signed by vested veterans.

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