As I continue my study into contract fate in the NFL (as described here), before the 2023 season begins I thought I’d take a look as to some veteran players whose play in 2023 should be seen with an eye as to whether that season could be their last under their current contracts. This resulting in generating a list of players that met the following criteria:
- On a vested veteran contract (four or more accrued seasons)
- Due at least $4 million in cash for 2024
- With a negative contract fate of 60% or greater odds that their contracts will be terminated or cut in pay after the having completed the number of seasons on their contract.
That list of 104 players can be found at the end of this article. Before that, here are some highlights that stood out to me:
- Cody Whitehair tops the list at 87.5%. Of left guards with 5 year contracts, only one (Rodger Saffold) fully completed a contract, and only one other (Joel Bitonio) got another extension.
- 3rd, 4th, and 5th on the list are all running backs, with the intense conversation over their pay and career length perhaps being focused on Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara come spring of 2024–all with negative contract fate odds well above 80%. Kamara additionally has the complication of a looming suspension over his head, while Chubb would seem most likely to beat the odds.
- Wide receiver really sticks out as a position where negative contract fates could be abundant, taking up 16 of the top 42 odds. I had observed that despite being much higher valued, wide receivers end up having slightly worse fates than running back, and this list appears to confirm that, even if the quantity may be a little inflated by teams employing more wide receivers in general
- Among wide receivers, the Chargers really stand out here, with their top two in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both having the final year of their contracts come up in 2024 when each will be over 30 and due at least $20 million. With the team having just extended Justin Herbert and drafting Quentin Johnston in the 1st round, contractual change could be coming for both of them.
- The Chargers are also one of five teams currently over the 2024 cap by $20 million or more, alongside the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, and Saints. That could pose additional problems for Chubb, Kamara, Allen, and Williams. Other players on those teams that are on this list with odds above 70% are Demario Davis, Jerome Baker, Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Amari Cooper.
- Quarterback is the one position that did not show up on this list. The highest negative contract fate odds there were at 56.3% for Jared Goff and Dak Prescott, with both having the ends of their contracts after 2024.
| Name | Team | Age | Pos. | Contract Length | Seasons Completed After 2023 | 2024 Cash Due | Odds Of Negative Contract Fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Whitehair | Bears | 32 | LG | 5 | 4 | $10,250,000 | 87.5% |
| Mike Hilton | Bengals | 30 | CB | 4 | 3 | $6,450,000 | 86.8% |
| Nick Chubb | Browns | 29 | RB | 3 | 2 | $12,200,000 | 86.1% |
| James Conner | Cardinals | 29 | RB | 3 | 2 | $5,490,000 | 86.1% |
| Alvin Kamara | Saints | 29 | RB | 5 | 3 | $11,800,000 | 83.3% |
| Brandon Scherff | Jaguars | 33 | RG | 3 | 2 | $16,500,000 | 80.0% |
| James Daniels | Steelers | 27 | RG | 3 | 2 | $8,250,000 | 80.0% |
| Austin Corbett | Panthers | 29 | RG | 3 | 2 | $6,250,000 | 80.0% |
| Mark Glowinski | Giants | 32 | RG | 3 | 2 | $5,700,000 | 80.0% |
| Keenan Allen | Chargers | 32 | WR | 4 | 3 | $23,100,000 | 79.5% |
| Foyesade Oluokun | Jaguars | 29 | LB | 3 | 2 | $15,000,000 | 78.1% |
| Demario Davis | Saints | 35 | LB | 3 | 2 | $12,000,000 | 78.1% |
| Jerome Baker | Dolphins | 28 | LB | 3 | 2 | $11,133,000 | 78.1% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Titans | 32 | WR | 2 | 1 | $14,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Hunter Renfrow | Raiders | 29 | WR | 2 | 1 | $11,882,000 | 76.0% |
| Diontae Johnson | Steelers | 28 | WR | 2 | 1 | $10,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Russell Gage | Buccaneers | 28 | WR | 2 | 1 | $10,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Allen Robinson | Steelers | 31 | WR | 2 | 1 | $10,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Brandin Cooks | Cowboys | 31 | WR | 2 | 1 | $8,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Robert Woods | Texans | 32 | WR | 2 | 1 | $6,500,000 | 76.0% |
| Darius Slayton | Giants | 27 | WR | 2 | 1 | $6,000,000 | 76.0% |
| Joe Thuney | Chiefs | 32 | LG | 5 | 3 | $16,000,000 | 75.0% |
| Quandre Diggs | Seahawks | 31 | S | 3 | 2 | $11,000,000 | 75.0% |
| Justin Reid | Chiefs | 27 | S | 3 | 2 | $10,750,000 | 75.0% |
| Tyrann Mathieu | Saints | 32 | S | 3 | 2 | $9,000,000 | 75.0% |
| Tracy Walker | Lions | 29 | S | 3 | 2 | $8,000,000 | 75.0% |
| Marcus Maye | Saints | 31 | S | 3 | 2 | $7,500,000 | 75.0% |
| Xavier Woods | Panthers | 29 | S | 3 | 2 | $4,500,000 | 75.0% |
| Justin Simmons | Broncos | 31 | S | 4 | 3 | $14,500,000 | 74.4% |
| Eddie Jackson | Bears | 31 | S | 4 | 3 | $14,150,000 | 74.4% |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | Jaguars | 30 | S | 4 | 3 | $9,000,000 | 74.4% |
| Chandler Jones | Raiders | 34 | EDGE | 3 | 2 | $17,000,000 | 72.3% |
| Josh Sweat | Eagles | 27 | EDGE | 3 | 2 | $16,000,000 | 72.3% |
| Haason Reddick | Eagles | 30 | EDGE | 3 | 2 | $15,000,000 | 72.3% |
| Demarcus Lawrence | Cowboys | 32 | EDGE | 3 | 2 | $10,000,000 | 72.3% |
| Mike Williams | Chargers | 30 | WR | 3 | 2 | $20,000,000 | 71.2% |
| Chris Godwin | Buccaneers | 28 | WR | 3 | 2 | $20,000,000 | 71.2% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Chiefs | 30 | WR | 3 | 2 | $12,000,000 | 71.2% |
| Tim Patrick | Broncos | 31 | WR | 3 | 2 | $10,000,000 | 71.2% |
| Zay Jones | Jaguars | 29 | WR | 3 | 2 | $8,000,000 | 71.2% |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | Dolphins | 29 | WR | 3 | 2 | $7,300,000 | 71.2% |
| Amari Cooper | Browns | 30 | WR | 5 | 4 | $20,000,000 | 71.1% |
| Zach Ertz | Cardinals | 34 | TE | 3 | 2 | $10,050,000 | 70.5% |
| C.J. Uzomah | Jets | 31 | TE | 3 | 2 | $8,000,000 | 70.5% |
| Will Dissly | Seahawks | 28 | TE | 3 | 2 | $7,000,000 | 70.5% |
| Tyler Conklin | Jets | 29 | TE | 3 | 2 | $6,750,000 | 70.5% |
| Logan Thomas | Commanders | 33 | TE | 3 | 2 | $6,565,000 | 70.5% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Colts | 31 | TE | 3 | 2 | $5,920,000 | 70.5% |
| Carlton Davis | Buccaneers | 28 | CB | 3 | 2 | $14,500,000 | 68.8% |
| Charvarius Ward | 49ers | 28 | CB | 3 | 2 | $13,000,000 | 68.8% |
| D.J. Reed | Jets | 28 | CB | 3 | 2 | $11,000,000 | 68.8% |
| Donte Jackson | Panthers | 29 | CB | 3 | 2 | $10,622,500 | 68.8% |
| Darious Williams | Jaguars | 31 | CB | 3 | 2 | $10,000,000 | 68.8% |
| Rasul Douglas | Packers | 30 | CB | 3 | 2 | $9,000,000 | 68.8% |
| Taron Johnson | Bills | 28 | CB | 3 | 2 | $7,697,333 | 68.8% |
| Avonte Maddox | Eagles | 28 | CB | 3 | 2 | $7,500,000 | 68.8% |
| Will Hernandez | Cardinals | 29 | RG | 2 | 1 | $4,075,000 | 68.6% |
| Nate Herbig | Steelers | 26 | RG | 2 | 1 | $4,000,000 | 68.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 28 | RB | 4 | 2 | $12,000,000 | 68.2% |
| David Bakhtiari | Packers | 33 | LT | 4 | 3 | $21,500,000 | 66.7% |
| Garett Bolles | Broncos | 32 | LT | 4 | 3 | $16,000,000 | 66.7% |
| Taylor Decker | Lions | 31 | LT | 4 | 3 | $13,700,000 | 66.7% |
| Dion Dawkins | Bills | 30 | LT | 4 | 3 | $10,300,000 | 66.7% |
| David Njoku | Browns | 28 | TE | 4 | 2 | $14,500,000 | 65.0% |
| Dallas Goedert | Eagles | 29 | TE | 4 | 2 | $14,250,000 | 65.0% |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 35 | TE | 4 | 2 | $13,000,000 | 65.0% |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 29 | TE | 4 | 2 | $11,000,000 | 65.0% |
| Taysom Hill | Saints | 34 | TE | 4 | 2 | $10,000,000 | 65.0% |
| DeForest Buckner | Colts | 30 | IDL | 4 | 3 | $20,250,000 | 63.6% |
| Kenny Clark | Packers | 29 | IDL | 4 | 3 | $17,000,000 | 63.6% |
| Cameron Heyward | Steelers | 35 | IDL | 4 | 3 | $16,000,000 | 63.6% |
| Ryan Kelly | Colts | 31 | C | 4 | 3 | $12,375,000 | 63.6% |
| Davon Godchaux | Patriots | 30 | IDL | 2 | 1 | $8,300,000 | 63.6% |
| Bryan Mone | Seahawks | 29 | IDL | 2 | 1 | $5,900,000 | 63.6% |
| David Andrews | Patriots | 32 | C | 4 | 3 | $5,500,000 | 63.6% |
| John Cominsky | Lions | 29 | IDL | 2 | 1 | $5,000,000 | 63.6% |
| Jarran Reed | Seahawks | 32 | IDL | 2 | 1 | $4,470,000 | 63.6% |
| Dean Lowry | Vikings | 30 | IDL | 2 | 1 | $4,000,000 | 63.6% |
| Aaron Donald | Rams | 33 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $35,000,000 | 63.4% |
| D.J. Jones | Broncos | 29 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $10,000,000 | 63.4% |
| Jonathan Jones | Patriots | 31 | CB | 2 | 1 | $9,000,000 | 63.4% |
| Byron Murphy | Vikings | 26 | CB | 2 | 1 | $8,850,000 | 63.4% |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Jaguars | 29 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $8,000,000 | 63.4% |
| B.J. Hill | Bengals | 29 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $7,500,000 | 63.4% |
| Sebastian Joseph-Day | Chargers | 29 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $7,500,000 | 63.4% |
| Patrick Peterson | Steelers | 34 | CB | 2 | 1 | $6,850,000 | 63.4% |
| Harrison Phillips | Vikings | 28 | IDL | 3 | 2 | $6,500,000 | 63.4% |
| Taylor Moton | Panthers | 30 | RT | 5 | 3 | $17,500,000 | 63.2% |
| Shaquil Barrett | Buccaneers | 32 | EDGE | 4 | 3 | $17,000,000 | 62.5% |
| Matt Judon | Patriots | 32 | EDGE | 4 | 3 | $10,500,000 | 62.5% |
| Tyus Bowser | Ravens | 29 | EDGE | 4 | 3 | $5,500,000 | 62.5% |
| Deatrich Wise | Patriots | 30 | EDGE | 4 | 3 | $5,000,000 | 62.5% |
| Jonnu Smith | Falcons | 29 | TE | 2 | 1 | $6,500,000 | 62.2% |
| Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | 32 | WR | 4 | 2 | $17,000,000 | 61.5% |
| Christian Kirk | Jaguars | 28 | WR | 4 | 2 | $16,500,000 | 61.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 29 | WR | 4 | 2 | $13,500,000 | 61.5% |
| Patrick Ricard | Ravens | 30 | FB | 3 | 2 | $4,000,000 | 61.5% |
| Laken Tomlinson | Jets | 32 | LG | 3 | 2 | $13,000,000 | 60.9% |
| Ryan Jensen | Buccaneers | 33 | C | 3 | 2 | $12,500,000 | 60.9% |
| Ted Karras | Bengals | 31 | C | 3 | 2 | $6,400,000 | 60.9% |
| Mason Cole | Steelers | 28 | C | 3 | 2 | $4,750,000 | 60.9% |
| Arik Armstead | 49ers | 31 | IDL | 5 | 4 | $18,260,000 | 60.7% |
| Mitch Morse | Bills | 32 | C | 2 | 1 | $8,500,000 | 60.0% |
| Brian Allen | Rams | 29 | C | 2 | 1 | $7,000,000 | 60.0% |
| Connor McGovern | Bills | 27 | RG | 3 | 1 | $5,900,000 | 60.0% |