Which Players Could Face Negative Contract Fate In 2024?

As I continue my study into contract fate in the NFL (as described here), before the 2023 season begins I thought I’d take a look as to some veteran players whose play in 2023 should be seen with an eye as to whether that season could be their last under their current contracts. This resulting in generating a list of players that met the following criteria:

  • On a vested veteran contract (four or more accrued seasons)
  • Due at least $4 million in cash for 2024
  • With a negative contract fate of 60% or greater odds that their contracts will be terminated or cut in pay after the having completed the number of seasons on their contract.

That list of 104 players can be found at the end of this article. Before that, here are some highlights that stood out to me:

  • Cody Whitehair tops the list at 87.5%. Of left guards with 5 year contracts, only one (Rodger Saffold) fully completed a contract, and only one other (Joel Bitonio) got another extension.
  • 3rd, 4th, and 5th on the list are all running backs, with the intense conversation over their pay and career length perhaps being focused on Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara come spring of 2024–all with negative contract fate odds well above 80%. Kamara additionally has the complication of a looming suspension over his head, while Chubb would seem most likely to beat the odds.
  • Wide receiver really sticks out as a position where negative contract fates could be abundant, taking up 16 of the top 42 odds. I had observed that despite being much higher valued, wide receivers end up having slightly worse fates than running back, and this list appears to confirm that, even if the quantity may be a little inflated by teams employing more wide receivers in general
  • Among wide receivers, the Chargers really stand out here, with their top two in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both having the final year of their contracts come up in 2024 when each will be over 30 and due at least $20 million. With the team having just extended Justin Herbert and drafting Quentin Johnston in the 1st round, contractual change could be coming for both of them.
  • The Chargers are also one of five teams currently over the 2024 cap by $20 million or more, alongside the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, and Saints. That could pose additional problems for Chubb, Kamara, Allen, and Williams. Other players on those teams that are on this list with odds above 70% are Demario Davis, Jerome Baker, Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Amari Cooper.
  • Quarterback is the one position that did not show up on this list. The highest negative contract fate odds there were at 56.3% for Jared Goff and Dak Prescott, with both having the ends of their contracts after 2024.
NameTeamAgePos.Contract LengthSeasons Completed
After 2023
2024 Cash DueOdds Of Negative Contract Fate
Cody WhitehairBears32LG54$10,250,00087.5%
Mike HiltonBengals30CB43$6,450,00086.8%
Nick ChubbBrowns29RB32$12,200,00086.1%
James ConnerCardinals29RB32$5,490,00086.1%
Alvin KamaraSaints29RB53$11,800,00083.3%
Brandon ScherffJaguars33RG32$16,500,00080.0%
James DanielsSteelers27RG32$8,250,00080.0%
Austin CorbettPanthers29RG32$6,250,00080.0%
Mark GlowinskiGiants32RG32$5,700,00080.0%
Keenan AllenChargers32WR43$23,100,00079.5%
Foyesade OluokunJaguars29LB32$15,000,00078.1%
Demario DavisSaints35LB32$12,000,00078.1%
Jerome BakerDolphins28LB32$11,133,00078.1%
DeAndre HopkinsTitans32WR21$14,000,00076.0%
Hunter RenfrowRaiders29WR21$11,882,00076.0%
Diontae JohnsonSteelers28WR21$10,000,00076.0%
Russell GageBuccaneers28WR21$10,000,00076.0%
Allen RobinsonSteelers31WR21$10,000,00076.0%
Brandin CooksCowboys31WR21$8,000,00076.0%
Robert WoodsTexans32WR21$6,500,00076.0%
Darius SlaytonGiants27WR21$6,000,00076.0%
Joe ThuneyChiefs32LG53$16,000,00075.0%
Quandre DiggsSeahawks31S32$11,000,00075.0%
Justin ReidChiefs27S32$10,750,00075.0%
Tyrann MathieuSaints32S32$9,000,00075.0%
Tracy WalkerLions29S32$8,000,00075.0%
Marcus MayeSaints31S32$7,500,00075.0%
Xavier WoodsPanthers29S32$4,500,00075.0%
Justin SimmonsBroncos31S43$14,500,00074.4%
Eddie JacksonBears31S43$14,150,00074.4%
Rayshawn JenkinsJaguars30S43$9,000,00074.4%
Chandler JonesRaiders34EDGE32$17,000,00072.3%
Josh SweatEagles27EDGE32$16,000,00072.3%
Haason ReddickEagles30EDGE32$15,000,00072.3%
Demarcus LawrenceCowboys32EDGE32$10,000,00072.3%
Mike WilliamsChargers30WR32$20,000,00071.2%
Chris GodwinBuccaneers28WR32$20,000,00071.2%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingChiefs30WR32$12,000,00071.2%
Tim PatrickBroncos31WR32$10,000,00071.2%
Zay JonesJaguars29WR32$8,000,00071.2%
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Dolphins29WR32$7,300,00071.2%
Amari CooperBrowns30WR54$20,000,00071.1%
Zach ErtzCardinals34TE32$10,050,00070.5%
C.J. UzomahJets31TE32$8,000,00070.5%
Will DisslySeahawks28TE32$7,000,00070.5%
Tyler ConklinJets29TE32$6,750,00070.5%
Logan ThomasCommanders33TE32$6,565,00070.5%
Mo Alie-CoxColts31TE32$5,920,00070.5%
Carlton DavisBuccaneers28CB32$14,500,00068.8%
Charvarius Ward49ers28CB32$13,000,00068.8%
D.J. ReedJets28CB32$11,000,00068.8%
Donte JacksonPanthers29CB32$10,622,50068.8%
Darious WilliamsJaguars31CB32$10,000,00068.8%
Rasul DouglasPackers30CB32$9,000,00068.8%
Taron JohnsonBills28CB32$7,697,33368.8%
Avonte MaddoxEagles28CB32$7,500,00068.8%
Will HernandezCardinals29RG21$4,075,00068.6%
Nate HerbigSteelers26RG21$4,000,00068.6%
Christian McCaffrey49ers28RB42$12,000,00068.2%
David BakhtiariPackers33LT43$21,500,00066.7%
Garett BollesBroncos32LT43$16,000,00066.7%
Taylor DeckerLions31LT43$13,700,00066.7%
Dion DawkinsBills30LT43$10,300,00066.7%
David NjokuBrowns28TE42$14,500,00065.0%
Dallas GoedertEagles29TE42$14,250,00065.0%
Travis KelceChiefs35TE42$13,000,00065.0%
Mark AndrewsRavens29TE42$11,000,00065.0%
Taysom HillSaints34TE42$10,000,00065.0%
DeForest BucknerColts30IDL43$20,250,00063.6%
Kenny ClarkPackers29IDL43$17,000,00063.6%
Cameron HeywardSteelers35IDL43$16,000,00063.6%
Ryan KellyColts31C43$12,375,00063.6%
Davon GodchauxPatriots30IDL21$8,300,00063.6%
Bryan MoneSeahawks29IDL21$5,900,00063.6%
David AndrewsPatriots32C43$5,500,00063.6%
John CominskyLions29IDL21$5,000,00063.6%
Jarran ReedSeahawks32IDL21$4,470,00063.6%
Dean LowryVikings30IDL21$4,000,00063.6%
Aaron DonaldRams33IDL32$35,000,00063.4%
D.J. JonesBroncos29IDL32$10,000,00063.4%
Jonathan JonesPatriots31CB21$9,000,00063.4%
Byron MurphyVikings26CB21$8,850,00063.4%
Folorunso FatukasiJaguars29IDL32$8,000,00063.4%
B.J. HillBengals29IDL32$7,500,00063.4%
Sebastian Joseph-DayChargers29IDL32$7,500,00063.4%
Patrick PetersonSteelers34CB21$6,850,00063.4%
Harrison PhillipsVikings28IDL32$6,500,00063.4%
Taylor MotonPanthers30RT53$17,500,00063.2%
Shaquil BarrettBuccaneers32EDGE43$17,000,00062.5%
Matt JudonPatriots32EDGE43$10,500,00062.5%
Tyus BowserRavens29EDGE43$5,500,00062.5%
Deatrich WisePatriots30EDGE43$5,000,00062.5%
Jonnu SmithFalcons29TE21$6,500,00062.2%
Tyler LockettSeahawks32WR42$17,000,00061.5%
Christian KirkJaguars28WR42$16,500,00061.5%
Courtland SuttonBroncos29WR42$13,500,00061.5%
Patrick RicardRavens30FB32$4,000,00061.5%
Laken TomlinsonJets32LG32$13,000,00060.9%
Ryan JensenBuccaneers33C32$12,500,00060.9%
Ted KarrasBengals31C32$6,400,00060.9%
Mason ColeSteelers28C32$4,750,00060.9%
Arik Armstead49ers31IDL54$18,260,00060.7%
Mitch MorseBills32C21$8,500,00060.0%
Brian AllenRams29C21$7,000,00060.0%
Connor McGovernBills27RG31$5,900,00060.0%