The table on the left, representing the top four positions of potential need in 2026, was produced by crossing two metrics that OTC has constructed. One is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2026. (First round rookies from 2022 are excluded, as many will see their fifth year options exercised after the draft.) And the other is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that have a 60% or greater chance of having a negative contract fate, meaning that the contract would be terminated, or the player takes a pay cut. These two percentages are summed together for each team and position. It is possible for these percentages to exceed 100% due to players changing teams from 2024 to 2025.

The teams are sorted by the highest potential needs that could come from this roster churn in 2026–thus, the Commanders, Texans, and Chargers among the most, and the Raiders, Bills, and Lions among the least.

This chart does not guarantee nor suggest that teams will or should pursue their listed positions in the draft with higher priority. A proper holistic approach to the draft will emphasize getting the best football players as practical above all else. However, should teams end up drafting players that align with the positions listed for them, attention should be given by observers to see if those players could be future replacements for incumbents that are set to become free agents, or with contracts that the team might want to shed next season.

Finally, I thought it would be good to sum up just how substantial these potential future needs were at each position leaguewide. The table below sums 4 points for teams that have that position in 1st place, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th.

As will become evident when compared to Jason’s drafting strategies, high value positions like quarterback, offensive line, and edge rusher show up the lowest on the list, while lower valued positions like safety, tight end, and linebacker show up high. Interior defensive line is one divergent position here. But this can also be resolved by observing that positions like quarterback and offensive line in particular tend to have contracts that last longer, and thus are signed for longer terms and have less risk of negative contract fate. This table could suggest that seeing some of those lower value positions drafted in the middle to late rounds could be ones to especially look for as long term competition for incumbent players.

As always, the formula used to calculate these projections is simple: subtract from the maximum roster size (90) the number of players currently on the roster, and the number of draft picks each team currently has.

This season, the Vikings and Jaguars are on top with an estimate of 21 UDFAs, with the Ravens right behind at 20. For Jacksonville and Baltimore this is clearly due to having the fewest players under contract as of now. But for Minnesota, it’s because they currently possess the fewest draft picks in the league, at only 4. It’s clear that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah looks set to build rookie depth among the undrafted ranks this season.

On the other end, the Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chiefs are among the teams projected to sign the fewest UDFAs. Other than Arizona, which has also has the most players currently under contract, none of these teams are notably low in draft picks. These are teams that could end up cutting several veterans if they sign a more typical UDFA class size.

Because draft day trades and other transactions will happen, these numbers will not be the final result. They may, however, give some hints as to what teams could do during and immediately after the draft. Teams with a high numbered UDFA potential could lower this number by acquiring more picks in this draft, either by trading down or trading away future picks. Teams with a low numbered UDFA potential could raise this number by trading up in this draft, or defer some picks into future drafts via trades, to lower the number of picks they make now. Teams on this low end are also more liable to cut some veterans currently on the roster.

On the surface this looks like an exceptionally strong quarterback class, with the position taking seven of the top eight spots. But there are a couple of obvious caveats here: the Texans got overexuberant when they signed Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos in 2016, only to trade him away in a salary dump one season later. Denver then returned serve by signing Case Keenum for the same APY two seasons later.

The Seahawks once again dominated this rookie class, continuing to lay the foundation for their future success. In addition to Russell Wilson, they got Booby Wagner as that one non-quarterback in the top eight, and also added Bruce Irvin (42nd), JR Sweezy (71st), Jeremy Lane (78th), Jermaie Kearse (88th), and DeShawn Shead (96th). The Bengals stand out as well with Kevin Zeitler (25th), Vontaze Burfict (36th), Dre Kirkpatrick (37th), Marvin Jones (54th), Mohamed Sanu (69th), and George Iloka (74th).

This was another bad rookie class for the Lions: very little value beyond Riley Reiff (29th) and Tahir Whitehead (72nd). The Falcons also did poorly even after accounting for draft capital traded away to get Julio Jones the previous draft, largely due to 2nd rounder Peter Konz only lasting three seasons.

There were a couple of high variances in total versus relative value here, one in each direction. Despite having completely desiccated draft capital due to the excesses of Al Davis–the Raiders didn’t pick until 95th overall that draft–Reggie McKenzie was still able to add value commensurate with those picks, even if the total talent found was low. On the other end, the Browns identified a lot of good talent in this draft, but did not make good uses of their actual 1st round picks in Trent Richardson (133rd) and Brandon Weeden (127th). And to add insult to injury, many of the players that did have good value in their careers–Mitchell Schwartz (32nd), Tashaun Gipson (57th), Travis Benjamin (73rd)–utilized it more for other teams.

It was known in advance that the quarterback rookie class was going to be weak in 2013, and for a long time, that was borne out in the results. At the time, Geno Smith was widely considered the only possible 1st round valued quarterback, and he fell to the 2nd round despite being in attendance in New York. And for almost his entire career, it looked like his estimated value would be nothing higher than a 4th rounder…until he turned it around, and just a few days ago got an extension from the Raiders that skyrocketed him all the way to 1st overall on this list.

The Eagles were second in total value and first in relative value, led by Lane Johnson (3rd), Zach Ertz (25th), and Bennie Logan (43rd). The Eagles also drafted Jordan Poyer (31st), but unfortunately cut him during his rookie season. The 49ers did not have any players in the estimated top 32, but did have 13 players as estimated as being draftable. The Packers also dominated the actual middle rounds with three estimated 1st round valued players in David Bakhtiari (4th), JC Tretter (23rd), and Micah Hyde (32nd).

The Saints and Ravens did very well with little. Despite getting their 2nd rounder stripped for the bounty scandal, and only having five actual draft picks. they got the recently retired Terron Armstead (13th), along with Kenny Stills (44th) and Kenny Vaccarro (59th), and found 4 UDFAs with estimated draftable talent. Baltimore, meanwhile, despite whiffing on their actual 1st round pick in Matt Elam, still got Ryan Jensen (19th), Brandon Williams (27th), Ricky Wagner (34th), and Kyle Juszczyk (70th).

On the other end, this was yet another bad Browns draft, with only three estimated draftable players, the highest in Barkevious Mingo (105th, a 4th round value) taken with the actual 6th overall pick. The Colts also did very poorly, as Ryan Grigson, somehow being the defending Executive Of The Year over John Elway, only identifying one player in the top 200: kicker Brandon McManus (76th) signed as a UDFA…who didn’t make it out of training camp, and one season later was acquired by Elway to continue the Broncos’ longstanding excellence in kicking.

The Jaguars led in total value found in this rookie class. This is a bit inflated due to the ill fated extension they gave Blake Bortles that moved him up to 14th overall in estimated value. If that extension is taken out, he’d instead be ranked in the 6th round. But despite Bortles, the Jaguars found six other players with estimated 1st or 2nd round talent: Allen Robinson (13th), Telvin Smith (35th), Brandon Linder (38th), Allen Hurns (39th), Marqise Lee (51st), and Aaron Colvin (52nd).

But in relative value, three out of the four AFC West teams stand out here–just looking at the estimated 1st and 2nd round talent they found here:

There are caveats here–Mack was traded to the Bears, while Harris utilized the bulk of his production with the Broncos, which contributed to the Raiders’ success being much more limited than for the Broncos or Chiefs. But this was Reggie McKenzie’s one shining rookie class before things fell apart later.

As for the fourth AFC West team, this was a rough one for the Chargers, aggravated by regular aggravated injuries to actual 1st round pick Jason Verrett (estimated at 83rd). But no one was as dreadful as the Jets this season: it started with 1st round megabust Calvin Pryor, who couldn’t even get a second contract, continued with whiffing on Jace Amaro in the 2nd round, and only Quincy Enunwa (49th) was about to garner a contract within the top 120. The Saints also did poorly beyond Brandin Cooks (10th); the only other player they found within the top 180 was Todd Davis (92nd)…who ended up getting claimed off waivers by the Broncos and having a successful career in Denver.

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota headed the prevailing quarterback wisdom this season, and the two actually went 1st and 2nd overall. But neither proved to be the answer, with estimated rankings of 20th for Winston and 50th for Mariota. This turned out to be a bad rookie class for quarterbacks, with only Taylor Heinecke (61st) and Trevor Siemian (131st) being of additional note. On the other hand, this was an excellent rookie class to find an edge rusher, as one fourth of the estimated 1st rounders consisted of them.

This led to non-quarterback success for the Vikings, who come in here with the estimated top two picks instead in Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs. Minnesota crushed this rookie class like none other, adding onto them Trae Waynes (21st), Anthony Harris (24th), and Eric Kendricks (44th). They also found Justin Coleman (53rd) as a UDFA, but he didn’t make it out of their training camp as a rookie.

While neither hit on their quarterback picks, the Bucs and Titans had divergent results from the rest of their rookie classes. Tampa Bay was able to add Donovan Smith (17th), Kwon Alexander (26th), Ali Marpet (38th), and Adam Humphries (52nd) to round out a good class. Tennessee, on the other hand, took megabust Dorial Green-Beckham in the actual 2nd round, and only found two other players ranked within the top 180.

But it was the Jets who repeated in finding the worst total value–other than Leonard Williams (3rd), they found only two other players with estimated draftable value. The Saints also did poorly again, with only Andrus Peat (32nd) showing up in the top 99. And the Raiders could not repeat their efforts from 2014, with very little beyond Amari Cooper (5th)–who they traded away–and was further aggravated by giving up on Mario Edwards Jr. (88th) too early, cutting him before his rookie contract ended.

Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the consensus top two picks in this rookie class, and it was mostly confirmed in the financial results…except that Dak Prescott edged out both of them for the top APY here, aided by excellent leverage used on the Cowboys in his latest extension. Dallas did very well this season, also adding Ezekiel Elliott (23rd), Jaylon Smith (32nd), and Maliek Collins (41st). The Ravens just edged them on top overall value, however, landing Ronnie Stanley (13th), Matt Judon (18th), Michael Pierce (58th), and Tavon Young (59th).

In relative value, the Falcons led the way, even despite Keanu Neal (94th) underperforming a bit despite being an actual 1st round pick, due to consistently drafting ahead of value and getting sevel players in the top 110. Despite whiffing on Paxton Lynch in the first round, the Broncos otherwise used their draft capital next best, with Justin Simmons (22nd) leading the way, and identifying 11 players with estimated draftable talent.

The Chiefs were very divergent in total versus relative value–despite getting two top five players in Chris Jones (4th) and Tyreek Hill (5th) that of course considerably boost their total value, their relative value came in poor due to having a high number of mid round draft picks that did not pan out as much as would be anticipated. This was even more damning for the Browns, who had 13 draft picks this season, but only seven of them produced estimated draftable value.

The Cardinals did the worst in total value this season, aggravated by the gamble on Robert Nkemdiche going belly up, not getting any players in the top 140. The Bucs also did not get anyone in the top 140, with Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence being disappointments, and the infamous selection of kicker Roberto Aguayo in the 2nd round. The Bills didn’t get anyone in the top 160 other than Shaq Lawson (51st).

Deshaun Watson barely comes ahead of Patrick Mahomes here, but the database’s APY doesn’t know about the money in Mahomes’s contract that was pushed forward to make the practical APY higher, and given the highly divergent career paths of each, it’s highly likely that Mahomes will come out on top in the end. As the the top picks will indicate, this was a very strong rookie class for edge rusher (Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson), tackle (Garett Bolles, Dion Dawkins, Ryan Ramczyk), and wide receiver (Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin).

This rookie class is renowned for how outstanding of a job the Saints did, and it bears out with an amazing five players (Hendrickson, Marshon Lattimore, Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, Marcus Williams) estimated as first round value. But two other teams stand out here. In Chris Ballard’s first season as the Colts’ GM, he didn’t identify a first round talent but got great depth with finding 15 players with estimated draftable value. And the Chargers got excellent UDFA value by getting Michael Davis and Austin Ekeler on the team.

On the other end, this was the sign that things were going to get really bleak in the Meadowland for both teams. Both the Jets and Giants landed two excellent players in Jamal Adams/Marcus Maye and Dalvin Tomlinson/Evan Engram…but identified very little beyond them, contributing to desiccation of their depth. The Seahawks also struggled to get good relative value, coming in dead last there, likely aggravated by the unfortunate drafting of Malik McDowell after trading out of the first round.

Finally, many will be curious as to why the Chiefs’ total value comes out third worst here. That’s because this measure is more quantitative in nature, determining how many talented players teams could get out of rookie classes. The Chiefs found an unusually low four players of estimated draftable value. But use some common sense on the qualitative value of one of them.

The promise of this rookie class being strong on quarterbacks ended up being accurate, with four of five actual first rounders comprising the top four here. But it’s the Ravens and Bills that really stand out in identifying immense talent alongside the quarterbacks that they landed:

Now, the usual caveats of not harnessing the full value applies here, as the asterisked players have played the most elsewhere. But this was a great swan song to an outstanding career for Ozzie Newsome, and put Brandon Beane on the map to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Texans come out very poorly in this rookie class. Part of this is aggravated by the draft capital they gave up the season before to get Mahomes and Watson. But even with what they had left, the Chiefs failed to find any talent within the top 100 here, and the Texans found only three players of estimated draftable value.

But the Bengals don’t have the quarterback trade excuse to come out exceptionally bad here, led by the whiff of Billy Price in the actual 1sr round. This was also a bad job by the division rival Steelers, whiffing on both Terrell Edmunds and James Washington with their first two picks, and Chukwuma Okorafor the only player they landed within the top 100.

Kyler Murray was the consensus 1st overall pick as this rookie class was arriving, and nothing has stopped those results from continuing to bear out. But setting Daniel Jones aside, who ended up getting an ambitious extension from the Giants that did not pan out, it’s clear that this was the rookie class to find an edge rusher, interior defensive linemen, or wide receiver, as they dominate the 3rd through 16th overall spots here, and have plenty of other appearances in subsequent top 32 spots.

Speaking of edge rusher, it’s mind boggling how the Raiders saved themselves from a major disaster here. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock were immediately criticized for massively reaching on Clelin Ferrell with the actual 4th overall pick, and that criticism was quickly justified…but they somehow staved the damage by finding Maxx Crosby in the actual 4th round. Add onto this Hunter Renfrow (26th), Josh Jacobs (36th), Andre James (55th), and Foster Moreau (96th), and the Raiders did surprisingly well despite whiffing on another actual 1st round pick in Johnatham Abram, with actual 2nd rounder Trayvon Mullen also not panning out.

Beane also continued to build a fierce beast in Buffalo with four players within the top 100: Ed Oliver (23rd), Dawson Knox (30th), Devin Singletary (79th), and Tyrel Dodson (90th). This was also a strong showing for the Saints, getting six such players: Carl Granderson (32nd), Erik McCoy (37th), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jr. (52nd), Kaden Elliss (60th), Shy Tuttle (68th), and Deonte Harty (87th).

On the other end, the Panthers come out worst here, landing Brian Burns (who they later traded away), and only four other players of estimated draftable value. The Texans come out nearly as bad, with Tytus Howard being their only notable talent they actually kept. And the downfall of the Bengals continued to be evident here, with only Jonah Williams (28th) and Germaine Pratt (66th) coming in the top 100 here.

An odd divergence here comes from the Chiefs, who found only average total value, but were resourceful with the limited draft capital they had due to trading their first rounder for Frank Clark, landing some recognizable names like Juan Thornhill (62nd), Nick Allegretti (81st), Khalen Saunders (94th), and Mecole Hardman (100th).

But the oddest of all here is the Patriots coming out with the second highest total value, despite the accurate reputation that Bill Belichick drafted very poorly here. The key here is that he found 14 players with estimated draftable talent, but if you look at those players, there are no stars and few above average starters here. This illustrates just how far the depth chart a player within the top 250 or so can fall down within.

This was seen as a strong rookie class for quarterbacks from the beginning, and the conventional wisdom has played out even stronger than anticipated, with quarterbacks taking the top five spots with no serious caveats at play. That’s then followed by the next four spots taken by wide receivers, another strong position to target in this rookie class.

But it’s the Ravens, already having Lamar Jackson at quarterback, that again come out as the head of this class, landing five players within the top 80: Nnamdi Madubuike (11th), Patrick Queen (36th), Geno Stone (62nd), Broderick Washington (72nd), and Malik Harrison (77th). They also identified a sixth in Ben Bredeson (60th) that ended up having success elsewhere. The Saints also show strong here, although their top player, Zach Baun (27th) ended up finding the majority of his success in Philadelphia. Still, they also landed Cesar Ruiz (45th), Juwan Johnson (46th), Adam Trautman (92nd), and Malcolm Roach (96th).

Meanwhile, the luck that the Raiders had in 2019 decidely ran out in 2020 with a truly disastrous effort. This was aggravated by considerably mismangement of their two 1st round picks in Henry Ruggs, convicted of vehicular homicide, and Damon Arnette, commiting a wide array of violent crime. Neither made it out of their second seasons. The Raiders ended up only getting four players of estimated draftable value, none within the top 60.

This was also a rough draft for the Texans, getting only three players of estimated draftable value, and the Cardinals, with only five such players, and none within the top 75. And the Jets’ struggles continue with having the second worst relative value to the Raiders here, not getting the most out of actual 1st round pick Mekhi Becton (47th), and whiffing on players like Denzel Mims and Jabari Zuniga. This was despite finding Bryce Huff (25th) as a UDFA.

Caution has to be exuded with this rookie class, as several top players have yet to sign a contract other than their rookie contract. But it’s fun to look at some early trends here.

This was believed to be another strong class for quarterbacks, but only consensus 1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence led up to his billing, as Justin Fields (20th) is the only other quarterback to break the estimated 1st round for now, and he’ll be pushed down by more upcoming extensions unless he takes the next step forward with the Jets.

Among total value, the Lions are set to be the top of the class here, with three players in the top ten in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Alim McNeill, and four others within the top 100. The Eagles also set the stage for their Super Bowl winning team with three in the top 14 in Milton Williams, Devonta Smith, and Landon Dickerson.

In relative value, it’s the Chiefs that come out on top: despite having little draft capital due to trading their first round pick for Orlando Brown Jr., they still got four top 100 players in Trey Smith (currently 13th, likely to go higher once he is extended), Creed Humphrey (24th), Nick Bolton (33rd), and Noah Gray (71st). The Rams are right behind them; also without a 1st round pick due to trading for Matt Stafford, they also got four top 100 players: Alaric Jackson (21st), Tutu Atwell (47th), Ernest Jones (50th), and Bobby Brown III (62nd).

On the poor end, the Chargers are currently a false positive due to Rashawn Slater yet to have gotten a new contract, and Asante Samuel Jr. is still a free agent. But little is going to save the Giants, given the steady flameout of Kadarius Toney’s career, and very little else. It was also hard for the Seahawks to ever do well in total value with only three draft picks, but they weren’t even able to fortify that with undrafted talent, with Jon Rhattigan and Jake Curhan currently the only one of their UDFAs from this class coming out with estimated draftable talent.

Total Value

Relative Value

In the team column to the left, 25 teams shed $597.18 million in 2025 salary. The Broncos, Bucs, Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers were the seven teams that did not conduct any major veteran cuts. The Seahawks and Jaguars led the way in quantity with 5 players, while the Jets leading far and away in salary shed is almost entirely due to Aaron Rodgers (due $37.5 million) and Davante Adams (due $36.25 million).

By position, this season it was the defensive front that took the biggest hits, with salary shed among interior defensive linemen and edge rushers each seeing those numbers in the nine digits. Wide receiver and cornerback continue their trend of having a high amount of salary shed as well, coming in at 3rd and 4th. The high figure at quarterback this season is again due to Rodgers being cut.

Running back and linebacker were exceptionally low, possibly indicating that the market correction on those positions has stabilized. The same could be true of safety, which saw much less disruption than the devastation the position saw last season.