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Projecting the 2025 Compensatory Picks

This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2025 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

TeamRdCompensated Departure
MIN3Kirk Cousins
MIA3Robert Hunt
NYG4Xavier McKinney
MIA4Christian Wilkins
BAL4Patrick Queen
SEA4Damien Lewis
SF4Chase Young
SF4Sam Darnold
DAL5Tyron Smith
BUF5Gabriel Davis
DAL5Dorance Armstrong Jr.
SEA5Jordyn Brooks
DAL5Tyler Biadasz
BUF5Leonard Floyd
BAL5Jadeveon Clowney
LAC5Kenneth Murray
BAL5Geno Stone
DAL6Tony Pollard
SEA6Bobby Wagner
BAL6Kevin Zeitler
LV6Bilal Nichols
LAC6Gerald Everett
CLE6Joe Flacco
CLE6Jordan Elliott
LV6Amik Robertson
GB7Yosuah Nijman
MIA7DeShon Elliott
LAC7Michael Davis
NO7Isaac Yiadom
SF7Ray-Ray McCloud
KC7Willie Gay, Jr.
CLE7Supplementary

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 31 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, exactly 32 picks must be awarded under typical circumstances. To get to this number, the formula will award additional supplementary comp picks in the order of what would be the 8th round. This draft, the Titans, Browns, and Giants finished tied for the worst win-loss records in the league. The order of their picks in each round alternates; by the time the rotation makes it to the 8th round, Cleveland would be first in order, thus it is projected to get the Mr. Irrelevant pick. If additional supplemental comp picks are needed, the next one would be awarded to the Giants, and then the Titans.

In recent seasons, the NFL Management Council has released the list of compensatory picks the week before the start of the new league year, which this season is March 12. Although it could hypothetically be released at any time after the Super Bowl, it is most likely to be released sometime between March 3 and 7.

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”. This draft, I will continue to use the average of the estimated number of leaguewide players in previous sets of compensatory picks, dating back to 2014. This average comes out to 1,960, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

RoundPercentileOverall RankRepresentative Player
3rd/4th95th (top 5%)98Kenny Clark
4th/5th90th (top 10%)196Alvin Kamara
5th/6th85th (top 15%)294Justin Simmons
6th/7th75th (top 25%)490Jarrett Stidham
7th/Qualify65th (top 35%)686T’Vondre Sweat

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #98
  • Xavier McKinney (New York Giants): #100
  • Christian Wilkins (Miami): #113

4th/5th

  • Sam Darnold (San Francisco): #192
  • Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196
  • Gabe Davis (Green Bay): #205

5th/6th

  • Kenneth Murray (Los Angeles Chargers): #284
  • Geno Stone (Baltimore): #289
  • Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #294

6th/7th

None

7th/Qualifying

  • Willie Gay (Kansas City): #674
  • Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #686
  • Mike Edwards (Kansas City): #703

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

Most of the questions this draft center around standard guesswork as to where the cutoffs on which round are. One question that remains is if the NFL Management Council will continue to oddly view restructured contracts as new contracts. If it no longer does this, it could be good news for the Giants and Dolphins. Xavier McKinney had an outstanding season in Green Bay, with postseason honors boosting his contract very close to the 3rd round. Christian Wilkins, on the other hand, had a disappointing season in Las Vegas that was marred by injury, dropping his contract down to the 4th round. But if there’s a change, there’s a chance either or both could deliver a 3rd round comp pick instead.

Sam Darnold’s outstanding season has put his contract on the bubble of getting into the 4th round, after playing almost every snap in 2024. The only things that could have helped more is if he got any postseason honors, or he had incentives tied to his strong play. But if Darnold’s contract comes up just short, it’s a big drop for the 49ers, who will see that 4th for Darnold leaving for Minnesota instead turn to a 7th rounder for Clelin Ferrell going to DC.

The many permutations the Bills could have ended up with for their 2025 comp picks looks to land on two 5th rounders–with a possible 4th downgraded due to Gabe Davis missing most of 2024 with injury. Mack Hollins and Tim Settle look to have both clearly contributed to their teams enough to qualify as compensatory free agents. It’s unlikely that Mike Edwards will do the same, as he was cut by the Bills, and despite later returning to the Bucs and playing a decent amount of snaps for 5 games, but not enough to receive a snap count boost in the formula. But if Edwards were to qualify, that would cost the Bills one of their 5th rounders.

Edwards qualifying could help the Chiefs gain an additional 7th rounder. But the more likely bubble situation to watch for them and the Saints regards whether Willie Gay qualifies. Having just missed playing 25% of the snaps, his contract got no boost in that regard, drawing it very close to the qualifying cutoff. Should he not become a CFA, Kansas City would be completely shut of 2025 comp picks, and New Orleans would go from getting one 7th rounder to two.

2025 Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates

After seeing reasonably good results from this exercise last season, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.

This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2024 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.

As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.

With that, this list is built from the players who:

NameTeamPositionAgeAPY2025 Cash Due2025 Guaranteed SalarySeasons Completed/
Contract Length
2024 OTC Valuation Above Starter MedianOdds Of Negative Fate
Tyrod TaylorJetsQB36$6,000,000$6,000,000$2,500,0001/2($29,739,000)54.2%
Gardner MinshewRaidersQB29$12,500,000$12,500,000$3,160,0001/2($22,315,000)54.2%
Samson EbukamColtsEDGE30$8,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($9,313,000)73.1%
Kalif RaymondLionsWR31$5,250,000$4,900,000$01/2($9,171,000)76.8%
Josh ReynoldsJaguarsWR30$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($9,113,000)76.8%
Christian KirkJaguarsWR29$18,000,000$16,500,000$03/4($8,086,000)78.7%
Denico AutryTexansEDGE35$10,000,000$9,000,000$01/2($8,020,000)59.6%
Tyquan LewisColtsEDGE30$6,000,000$4,790,000$01/2($7,811,000)59.6%
Yetur Gross-Matos49ersEDGE27$9,000,000$8,000,000$01/2($7,584,000)59.6%
Ogbonnia OkoronkwoBrownsEDGE30$6,333,333$6,000,000$02/3($7,475,000)73.1%
D.J. WonnumPanthersEDGE28$6,250,000$7,500,000$01/2($6,996,000)59.6%
Sam HubbardBengalsEDGE30$10,000,000$9,600,000$03/4($6,355,000)69.2%
Tyler HigbeeRamsTE32$8,500,000$7,500,000$2,000,0001/2($6,349,000)64.5%
Miles SandersPanthersRB28$6,350,000$6,700,000$02/4($6,165,000)62.5%
Joey BosaChargersEDGE30$20,180,000$25,360,000$01/2($5,970,000)59.6%
Adam ThielenPanthersWR35$8,333,333$6,750,000$02/3($5,949,000)68.8%
Gerald EverettBearsTE31$6,000,000$5,500,000$01/2($5,910,000)64.5%
Cameron JordanSaintsEDGE36$13,250,000$12,500,000$1,500,0001/2($5,874,000)59.6%
Raekwon DavisColtsIDL28$7,000,000$6,490,000$01/2($5,848,000)62.9%
Sheldon RankinsBengalsIDL31$12,250,000$10,500,000$01/2($5,763,000)62.9%
Taysom HillSaintsTE35$10,000,000$10,000,000$03/4($5,574,000)66.7%
A.J. EpenesaBillsEDGE27$6,000,000$6,200,000$01/2($5,063,000)59.6%
Allen LazardJetsWR30$11,000,000$11,000,000$02/4($4,877,000)61.7%
James BradberryEaglesCB32$12,666,667$18,000,000$02/3($4,756,000)67.5%
Shy TuttlePanthersIDL30$6,500,000$6,500,000$02/3($4,597,000)62.5%
Jonathan AllenCommandersIDL30$18,000,000$17,000,000$03/4($4,124,000)56.4%
Dane JacksonPanthersCB29$4,250,000$4,350,000$1,000,0001/2($4,070,000)65.0%
Larry OgunjobiSteelersIDL31$9,583,333$7,000,000$02/3($3,933,000)62.5%
Khalen SaundersSaintsIDL29$4,100,000$4,000,000$02/3($3,866,000)62.5%
Cole HolcombSteelersLB29$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3($3,821,000)76.5%
Ja’Whaun BentleyPatriotsLB29$6,750,000$5,500,000$01/2($3,594,000)58.8%
Marcus WilliamsRavensS29$14,000,000$12,000,000$03/5($3,539,000)63.2%
Juan ThornhillBrownsS30$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3($3,537,000)75.4%
Nathan ShepherdSaintsIDL32$5,000,000$5,320,000$02/3($3,334,000)62.5%
C.J. MosleyJetsLB33$8,625,000$8,250,000$4,250,0001/2($3,095,000)58.8%
Amik RobertsonLionsCB27$4,625,000$4,750,000$01/2($2,998,000)65.0%
Jordan WhiteheadBuccaneersS28$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($2,990,000)53.7%
Jaire AlexanderPackersCB28$21,000,000$17,500,000$02/4($2,828,000)57.5%
Dallas GoedertEaglesTE30$14,250,000$14,250,000$03/4($2,822,000)66.7%
D.J. ReaderLionsIDL31$11,000,000$11,375,000$01/2($2,783,000)62.9%
Alex SingletonBroncosLB32$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3($2,697,000)76.5%
Kendall FullerDolphinsCB30$7,500,000$7,000,000$01/2($2,566,000)65.0%
Jadeveon ClowneyPanthersEDGE32$10,000,000$10,000,000$2,000,0001/2($2,219,000)59.6%
Leonard Floyd49ersEDGE33$10,000,000$8,450,000$01/2($2,195,000)59.6%
Evan EngramJaguarsTE31$13,750,000$15,750,000$02/3($2,138,000)72.0%
Alohi GilmanChargersS28$5,062,500$4,500,000$01/2($2,009,000)53.7%
Josh OliverVikingsTE28$7,000,000$8,000,000$02/3($1,671,000)72.0%
Noah FantSeahawksTE28$10,500,000$9,000,000$01/2($1,505,000)64.5%
DaQuan JonesBillsIDL34$8,000,000$7,750,000$2,250,0001/2($1,440,000)62.9%
Deebo Samuel49ersWR29$23,850,000$17,550,529$02/3($1,408,000)68.8%
Dre’Mont JonesSeahawksIDL28$17,176,667$16,510,000$02/3($1,349,000)62.5%
Shelby HarrisBrownsIDL34$4,500,000$4,500,000$01/2($1,338,000)62.9%
Tyler LockettSeahawksWR33$15,000,000$17,000,000$01/2($1,296,000)76.8%
David OnyemataFalconsIDL33$11,666,667$10,500,000$02/3($1,068,000)62.5%
Jalen ThompsonCardinalsS27$12,000,000$9,730,000$02/3($944,000)75.4%
Aaron RodgersJetsQB42$37,500,000$37,500,000$02/3($884,000)73.1%
David NjokuBrownsTE29$13,687,500$15,250,000$03/4($817,000)66.7%
Darius SlayEaglesCB34$13,000,000$16,000,000$02/3($730,000)67.5%
Alex AnzaloneLionsLB31$6,250,000$6,100,000$02/3($712,000)76.5%
Younghoe KooFalconsK31$4,850,000$4,250,000$03/5($643,000)100.0%
Donovan WilsonCowboysS30$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3($447,000)75.4%
Garrett BradburyVikingsC30$5,250,000$5,250,000$02/3($353,000)63.0%
Josh MetellusVikingsS27$4,000,000$3,775,000$01/2($185,000)53.7%
Marshon LattimoreCommandersCB29$19,400,000$18,000,000$03/5($73,000)58.8%
Ethan PocicBrownsC30$6,000,000$6,000,000$02/3$063.0%
Foster MoreauSaintsTE28$4,078,000$4,184,000$02/3$32,00072.0%
P.J. LockeBroncosS28$3,500,000$4,000,000$01/2$89,00053.7%
Tyrann MathieuSaintsS33$6,875,000$7,250,000$1,000,0001/2$99,00053.7%
Kamren CurlRamsS26$4,500,000$4,750,000$2,000,0001/2$185,00053.7%
Jason SandersDolphinsK30$4,400,000$4,000,000$03/5$320,000100.0%
Za’Darius SmithLionsEDGE33$11,500,000$11,000,000$01/2$369,00059.6%
George FantSeahawksLT33$4,550,000$3,800,000$01/2$424,00059.5%
John Franklin-MyersBroncosEDGE29$7,500,000$8,000,000$1,000,0001/2$520,00059.6%
Kenneth MurrayTitansLB27$7,750,000$7,500,000$01/2$550,00058.8%
Arden KeyTitansEDGE29$7,000,000$7,000,000$02/3$1,025,00073.1%
Jamel DeanBuccaneersCB29$13,000,000$13,000,000$02/4$1,033,00057.5%
Kevin ByardBearsS32$7,500,000$7,000,000$01/2$1,605,00053.7%
Mark AndrewsRavensTE30$14,000,000$11,000,000$03/4$1,735,00066.7%
Kyle Juszczyk49ersFB34$4,550,000$4,600,000$01/2$1,745,00075.0%
Mitch MorseJaguarsC33$5,250,000$4,650,000$1,500,0001/2$1,769,00057.1%
Harold LandryTitansEDGE29$17,500,000$17,500,000$03/5$2,034,00051.2%
Trey PipkinsChargersRT29$7,250,000$6,750,000$02/3$2,064,00063.6%
Jauan Jennings49ersWR28$7,695,000$9,500,000$1,170,0001/2$2,107,00076.8%
Amani HookerTitansS27$10,000,000$8,390,000$02/3$2,218,00075.4%
DeMarcus WalkerBearsIDL31$7,000,000$5,250,000$02/3$2,296,00062.5%
Travis KelceChiefsTE36$17,125,000$17,250,000$01/2$2,424,00064.5%
Davante AdamsJetsWR33$28,000,000$36,250,000$03/5$2,450,00058.5%
T.J. EdwardsBearsLB29$6,500,000$5,500,000$02/3$2,494,00076.5%
Geno StoneBengalsS26$7,000,000$6,475,000$01/2$2,576,00053.7%
Grady JarrettFalconsIDL32$16,500,000$16,250,000$02/3$2,620,00062.5%
Maliek Collins49ersIDL30$11,500,000$10,000,000$01/2$2,794,00062.9%
Mike EvansBuccaneersWR32$20,500,000$21,000,000$6,000,0001/2$2,886,00076.8%
D.K. MetcalfSeahawksWR28$24,000,000$18,000,471$02/3$2,989,00068.8%
Alex CappaBengalsRG30$8,750,000$8,000,000$03/4$3,257,00082.4%
Bobby OkerekeGiantsLB29$10,000,000$9,000,000$02/4$3,589,00056.3%
Geno SmithSeahawksQB35$25,000,000$31,000,000$02/3$3,796,00073.1%
Germaine PrattBengalsLB29$6,750,000$5,600,000$02/3$3,852,00076.5%
Tremaine EdmundsBearsLB27$18,000,000$15,000,000$8,200,0002/4$4,072,00056.3%
Isaac SeumaloSteelersLG32$8,000,000$7,875,000$02/3$4,188,00062.5%
Maxx CrosbyRaidersEDGE28$23,500,000$23,118,000$02/4$4,341,00053.8%

Breakdown by team

Here are the number of players each team has on this list:

  • 6: 49ers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks
  • 5: Bears, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Lions
  • 4: Jaguars, Titans
  • 3: Broncos, Bucs, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings
  • 2: Bills, Commanders, Dolphins, Raiders, Rams, Ravens
  • 1: Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Texans

While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2025. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.

Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2025 versus their 2025 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.

The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2025 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.

The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. Several of those teams (Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans) are in Super Bowl contention, while teams like the Cowboys and Dolphins were undone by injury. Regardless of how their seasons end, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2025.

Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.

The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.

The Jets and Seahawks break the X axis by each having over $90 million in such salary at play. For the Jets, who have fired their GM and head coach and are currently looking to find their replacements, assumptions are high that there will be major roster turnover on this team, with the former Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard leading the way of most of the cash due on this list.

The Seahawks face a much different situation: currently about $30 million over the salary cap, but also coming off a 10-7 season in which they just missed the playoffs. Players low on this list, certainly Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, seem very unlikely to be cut, and could instead be restructure candidates to defer cap dollar charges. Metcalf already has several void years on his contract to use for this purpose–Smith would need to agree to add the same. On the other hand, players such as Dre’Mont Jones or Noah Fant might not get as much of a benefit of the doubt. A very difficult decision may also need to come for Tyler Lockett, who is highly respected as the longest tenured Seahawk.

The Falcons will be another good team to watch, especially if they decide to move on from Kirk Cousins and take on a $27.5 million dead cash hit. Their restructure potential is high, thus that alone should not aggravate needed cuts, but the fate of the contracts for David Onyemata, Younghoe Koo, and long time Falcon Grady Jarrett should be monitored.

The Eagles and Browns, as is their practice, have already done their work preemptively to defer as many cap dollars as they can on their contracts. Thus, any cuts or renegotiations they make will be minimized in that regard. Philadelphia does not need to make any immediate changes to their contracts due to being in cap compliance, but that is not the case for the Browns, who will likely get there by restructuring Deshaun Watson’s salary once again after getting him to agree to add more void years for maximal deferral.

Finally, although the Saints, as usual, have plenty of work to do, their contracts are structured in a manner in which cutting most players would be impractical. They are likely to, and indeed may have to, continue to restructure contracts and run it back with a similar roster, as if they were more comparable to teams in the lower left quadrant.

What Use Do Injury Guarantees Have?

Last week, the Giants made the decision to bench Daniel Jones for the rest of the season, with the reason clearly being that he had $23 million of his 2025 salary protected for injury only. This move was not well received by some of his teammates, and Jones ultimately requested to be released, which the Giants graciously granted to him.

This is a situation that did no good for anyone involved, and considering how more frequent these situations are becoming, it is making me look at the concept of guaranteeing salary for injury only with increased scrutiny. By doing so, it provides teams an incentive to do what the Giants did with Jones, and it makes me consider whether this is a contract mechanism that should be phased out.

(more…)

The Mystery On The 3rd/4th Round Compensatory Pick Cutoff Has Been Solved

When I published my annual compensatory picks update after the draft on Monday, I still expressed some doubt about how the NFL Management Council calculated the cutoff between the 3rd and 4th round for 2024, even after Bills GM Brandon Beane provided some useful hints in explaining why the his team and the 49ers did not get the 3rd rounders they (and I) expected.

Thankfully, that doubt is now gone. Per a source that OTC considers reliable, we were informed that the NFLMC calculates contracts that were restructured as entirely new contracts. These contracts are calculated as beginning on the season of the restructure, and include all cap dollars from that season onward–including cap dollars in void seasons. The nature of these calculations make the APY of these restructured contracts much larger than they are in actual cash payment.

To illustrate, let’s use the player that I believe Beane was referring to on the 49ers at the time, Arik Armstead. He originally signed a five year, $85 million extension, for a real APY of $17 million. That contract had a $17.5 million signing bonus prorated over all five seasons at $3.5 million each. However, the 49ers then did maximum restructures on Armstead’s 2022 and 2023 bases salaries, adding more void years in the process. A simple view of the contract before and after the restructures as of 2023 looked like this:

Pre-Restructures

YearNon-Prorated SalaryProrated BonusesCap Number
2020$2,500,000$3,500,000$6,000,000
2021$7,500,000$5,000,000$12,500,000
2022$15,000,000$5,000,000$20,000,000
2023$16,740,000$5,000,000$21,740,000
2024$18,260,000$5,000,000$23,260,000
2025Void$1,500,000$1,500,000

Post-Restructures

YearNon-Prorated SalaryProrated BonusesCap Number
2020$2,500,000$3,500,000$6,000,000
2021$7,500,000$5,000,000$12,500,000
2022$1,970,000$7,606,000$9,576,000
2023*$2,015,000$10,551,000$12,566,000*
2024*$18,260,000$10,551,000$28,811,000*
2025Void$7,051,000$7,051,000*
2026Void$5,551,000$5,551,000*
2027Void$2,945,000$2,945,000*

What the NFLMC did for compensatory formula purposes was to take the contract on the right, but only consider the cap numbers for all seasons during and after the restructure, including void years–but for contract length, it ignored void years. What was counted has been highlighted in green and marked with asterisks. After taking out some of the simplicity I have illustrated here, Armstead’s compensatory APY came out to be just a shade over $28 million. (I am guessing that Beane slightly misspoke when he said $26 million).

Once this adjustment was made to OTC’s compensatory formula, it’s amazing how it put everything in proper place, with a proper 3rd/4th round cutoff consisting of the top 5% of the league, around the top 94 players:

As we can see, the contracts of Mike McGlinchey (San Francisco) and Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo) fell just below the cutoff, as Beane said. We also see Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract above it, but the 49ers did not get a 3rd round comp pick for his departure because they also signed Javon Hargrave, also above the cutoff. This also explains the NFLMC’s mistake in not initially awarding the Bengals a 3rd round comp pick. As it admitted, it omitted Jessie Bates’s Pro Bowl honors, and subtracting those 20 points would have put his contract below the cutoff, and cancelled out by the 4th round signing of Orlando Brown, Jr. It also explains why the 3rd round comp pick for Cincinnati came above the same for Philadelphia, from the departure of Hargrave to the Bay Area.

Although we now have the answer, I do still agree with Beane’s assessment that the Bills and 49ers got a “raw deal” due to counting “numbers that are not really numbers”. Returning to the Armstead example, at no point was he actually getting paid $28 million per season. His maximum compensation was always going to be $85 million over five seasons, thus his APY should have always been judged to be $17 million. I would advise the NFLMC to not calculate restructured contracts in the manner that they did.

With this solved, this change has also been placed in the 2025 compensatory picks projection. Currently, it has not resulted in any changes in that projection from Monday. However, Dolphins fans and observers should show a little bit of caution for the projection of Robert Hunt’s contract, as it is just barely over the 3rd/4th round cutoff in the compensatory formula. But the program is currently using a snap count average over the past four seasons for Hunt that should end up higher if he plays almost all the snaps for the Panthers, as starting offensive linemen tend to do. And also, although at this point it will not matter, I am more convinced that Jonathan Greenard’s contract will likely be valued in the 4th round and not the 3rd– and if so, it would mean that his contract would have not cancelled out Danielle Hunter’s 3rd round valued contract had the Vikings had a net loss of compensatory free agents of greater than 2–instead of the 1 they have now, resulting in only one comp pick for Kirk Cousins going to Atlanta.

2024 Projected UDFA Class Sizes

With only a few days before the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s that time again to take a look at how many undrafted free agents (UDFAs) each team might sign.

TeamCurrent RosterDraft PicksProjected UDFAs
Chargers58923
Ravens61920
Bears68418
Cowboys65718
Titans65718
Raiders64818
Bengals621018
Seahawks66717
Lions66717
Dolphins68616
Bills641016
Jets68715
Rams641115
Falcons68814
Vikings67914
Bucs70713
Jaguars69813
Panthers70713
Patriots70812
Saints69912
Browns73611
Giants7569
Broncos7389
Chiefs7479
Steelers7578
Colts7677
Texans7497
Comman-ders7497
Packers72117
Eagles7983
49ers77103
Cardinals78111

As always, the formula used to calculate these projections is simple: subtract from the maximum roster size (90) the number of players currently on the roster, and the number of draft picks each team currently has.

This season, the Chargers lead the way with an estimate of 23 UDFAs, largely due to having the fewest players under contract right now at 58. This is not too surprising given the major change at general manager and head coach with Joe Hortiz and Jim Harbaugh, as the team is likely to continue to change significantly with their arrival. Perhaps a little more surprising is the other team with a Harbaugh as the head coach in the Ravens, who unlike the Chargers have a coaching staff and front office that is highly tenured. A wide array of teams are bunched together afterward, with the Bears the most notable due to only having 4 draft picks right now–albeit two of them being the 1st and 9th overall picks.

On the other end, as it stands right now the Cardinals would have room for only one UDFA, with the 49ers and Eagles next up with only three spots for UDFAs. Something that most of the teams on the lower end have in common, however, is possessing a high number of draft picks. This is certainly the case with the Cardinals, who have garnered 11 of them right now, tied for most in the league. They are also second only to, oddly enough, the team with the fewest draft picks in the Bears, in draft pick value according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger system.

Because draft day trades and other transactions will happen, these numbers will not be the final result. They may, however, give some hints as to what teams could do during and immediately after the draft. Teams with a high numbered UDFA potential could lower this number by acquiring more picks in this draft, either by trading down or trading away future picks. Teams with a low numbered UDFA potential could raise this number by trading up in this draft, or defer some picks into future drafts via trades, to lower the number of picks they make now. Teams on this low end are also more liable to cut some veterans currently on the roster.

Analyzing Contracts Cut In 2024

Now that the fifth day of the new league year has passed, when many contract triggers have been decided, this is a good time to take a look at what veteran contracts were terminated in preparation for and during the beginning of free agency–and see what trends can be identified.

The list

Here are all the players cut that resulted in salary due in 2024 that was shed by their former teams:

#NamePos.Former Team2024 Cash Saved
Jimmy GaroppoloQBRaiders$24,250,000
87David BakhtiariTPackers$21,500,000
13Mike WilliamsWRChargers$20,000,000
48Shaquil BarrettEDGEBuccaneers$17,000,000
Jamal AdamsSSeahawks$16,500,000
D.J. HumphriesTCardinals$16,000,000
7Emmanuel OgbahEDGEDolphins$15,800,000
66Justin SimmonsSBroncos$14,500,000
J.C. JacksonCBPatriots$14,375,000
35Eddie JacksonSBears$14,150,000
82Kevin ByardSEagles$14,100,000
99Laken TomlinsonGJets$13,000,000
76Arik ArmsteadIDL49ers$12,860,000
Charles Leno Jr.TCommanders$12,000,000
19Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRChiefs$12,000,000
Darious WilliamsCBJaguars$12,000,000
26Aaron JonesRBPackers$12,000,000
12Hunter RenfrowWRRaiders$11,882,000
72Jerome BakerLBDolphins$11,133,000
77Quandre DiggsSSeahawks$11,000,000
49De’Vondre CampbellLBPackers$10,750,000
43Tre’Davious WhiteCBBills$10,400,000
90Cody WhitehairGBears$10,250,000
22Allen RobinsonWRSteelers$10,000,000
Michael GallupWRCowboys$9,500,000
83Rayshawn JenkinsSJaguars$9,000,000
Chukwuma OkoraforTSteelers$8,750,000
79Mitch MorseCBills$8,500,000
33Tracy WalkerSLions$8,000,000
25Folorunso FatukasiIDLJaguars$8,000,000
23C.J. UzomahTEJets$8,000,000
46Marcus MayeSSaints$7,500,000
29Avonte MaddoxCBEagles$7,500,000
45Brian AllenCRams$7,000,000
47Will DisslyTESeahawks$7,000,000
Patrick PetersonCBSteelers$6,850,000
60Logan ThomasTECommanders$6,565,000
57Jonnu SmithTEFalcons$6,500,000
91Eric KendricksLBChargers$6,500,000
Andre DillardTTitans$6,500,000
Mitchell TrubiskyQBSteelers$6,000,000
Bradley BozemanCPanthers$6,000,000
20Bryan MoneIDLSeahawks$5,900,000
71Mark GlowinskiGGiants$5,700,000
86Jordan PoyerSBills$5,500,000
4Tyus BowserEDGERavens$5,500,000
17Nyheim HinesRBBills$5,000,000
54Mason ColeCSteelers$4,750,000
10Deonte HartyWRBills$4,110,000
21Dean LowryIDLVikings$4,000,000
Isaiah OliverCB49ers$3,500,000
Alexander MattisonRBVikings$3,350,000
Nick ScottSBengals$3,300,000
Keion CrossenCBDolphins$3,245,000
Adrian PhillipsSPatriots$3,000,000
Lawrence GuyIDLPatriots$3,000,000
Vonn BellSPanthers$3,000,000
Siran NealCBBills$2,880,000
Nick BelloreLBSeahawks$2,850,000
Chris ManhertzTEBroncos$2,650,000
Leighton Vander EschLBCowboys$2,500,000
Brian HoyerQBRaiders$2,332,500
Jerry TilleryIDLRaiders$2,300,000
Hayden HurstTEPanthers$2,250,000
Keanu NealSSteelers$2,250,000
Chris BoardLBPatriots$1,960,000
DeVante ParkerWRPatriots$1,800,000
Nick GatesCCommanders$1,800,000

The number on the left column is the rank that player had on OTC’s 2024 top 100 possible cut candidates. Overall, that experiment went well: of the 50 players cut where they were due at least $4 million in salary for 2024 (the lower bound on the list), 38 of them were on the top 100 list, making up 76% of those cuts. In addition, six other players (Joey Bosa, Tim Patrick, John Cominsky, Donte Jackson, Tyler Lockett, and Shaq Thompson) also suffered negative contract fate by taking pay cuts in order to stay on their teams. That means the list identified 44 players that teams deemed were slated to be paid more in 2024 than they were willing to pay. With a few more tweaks, I hope to work further on exploring contract fate more, and attempting to increase the number of players that are accurate identified as possible cut candidates.

2024 Cash Saved By Team and Position

Team2024 Cash Saved
Packers$44,250,000
Seahawks$43,250,000
Raiders$40,764,500
Steelers$38,600,000
Bills$36,390,000
Dolphins$30,178,000
Jaguars$29,000,000
Chargers$26,500,000
Bears$24,400,000
Patriots$24,135,000
Eagles$21,600,000
Jets$21,000,000
Commanders$20,365,000
Broncos$17,150,000
Buccaneers$17,000,000
49ers$16,360,000
Cardinals$16,000,000
Cowboys$12,000,000
Chiefs$12,000,000
Panthers$11,250,000
Lions$8,000,000
Saints$7,500,000
Vikings$7,350,000
Rams$7,000,000
Falcons$6,500,000
Titans$6,500,000
Giants$5,700,000
Ravens$5,500,000
Bengals$3,300,000
Texans$0
Colts$0
Browns$0
Position2024 Cash SavedProportion To
2023 Cash Spent
S$111,800,00022.8%
WR$69,292,0008.7%
T$64,750,0008.4%
CB$60,750,0009.5%
EDGE$38,300,0004.3%
IDL$36,060,0004.2%
LB$35,693,0007.2%
TE$32,965,0008.5%
QB$32,582,5003.6%
G$28,950,0007.1%
C$28,050,00012.9%
RB$20,350,0006.7%

The team column to the left mostly speaks for itself as to which teams felt they had more 2024 salary that they needed to shed. Collectively, 29 teams shed $559,542,500 in 2024 salary–yes, that’s over half a billion dollars.

But it’s the position breakdown that fascinates me much more–particularly the very high number at safety. I can’t recall the last time that one position suffered this many high level cuts (13) at such a high number and high proportion to last season’s spending. This may have caused a chain reaction in which we saw some safeties unexpectedly cut, as more teams were market correcting.

Wide receiver and cornerback also suffered high amounts that were cut. This may suggest the “speed” positions at wide receiver and at defensive back saw many players that teams felt lost a step in speed and otherwise.

On the other hand, it’s no surprise that quarterback saw the least proportion of 2024 cash shed, with edge rushers and interior defensive linemen right behind as high valued positions. It was a bit surprising to see the running back amounts to be quite low–perhaps this comes a season or so after market corrections happened there that may be impacting safety right now. It will be good to discover in the future what trends end up changing.