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Searching For Longer Term Needs For The 2025 NFL Draft

With the 2025 NFL Draft starting tomorrow, most observers are focused on the remaining immediate needs they perceive teams to have. However, the acquisition of rookies should also be seen as a long term play, due to the cost control they provide for up to four or five seasons. Thus, I decided to look for ways to identify some positions that each team might use some fortification for down the road.

Team1st2nd3rd4th
CommandersEDGECBRBLB
TexansIDLLBST
ChargersSCBTEIOL
ColtsIDLCBWRT
RamsCBTERBWR
SteelersSIDLLBRB
RavensTECBWRLB
FalconsSWRTELB
PanthersLBCBIDLRB
BrownsIOLIDLSLB
DolphinsLBIDLWRT
ChiefsCBLBEDGET
GiantsLBIDLQBTE
BearsTESLBRB
49ersWRLBQBTE
BuccaneersCBQBLBTE
VikingsLBTEIDLS
JetsSIOLRBLB
BroncosSTEIDLIOL
CowboysSEDGERBLB
SaintsIDLTEWRLB
PatriotsTEWREDGET
PackersCBTRBWR
TitansWRRBIOLEDGE
CardinalsIDLCBTS
EaglesTEEDGESLB
SeahawksTEIDLCBRB
BengalsIOLEDGESLB
JaguarsSWRIDLRB
LionsIDLEDGESLB
BillsTESRBEDGE
RaidersTIOLRBLB

The table on the left, representing the top four positions of potential need in 2026, was produced by crossing two metrics that OTC has constructed. One is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2026. (First round rookies from 2022 are excluded, as many will see their fifth year options exercised after the draft.) And the other is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that have a 60% or greater chance of having a negative contract fate, meaning that the contract would be terminated, or the player takes a pay cut. These two percentages are summed together for each team and position. It is possible for these percentages to exceed 100% due to players changing teams from 2024 to 2025.

The teams are sorted by the highest potential needs that could come from this roster churn in 2026–thus, the Commanders, Texans, and Chargers among the most, and the Raiders, Bills, and Lions among the least.

This chart does not guarantee nor suggest that teams will or should pursue their listed positions in the draft with higher priority. A proper holistic approach to the draft will emphasize getting the best football players as practical above all else. However, should teams end up drafting players that align with the positions listed for them, attention should be given by observers to see if those players could be future replacements for incumbents that are set to become free agents, or with contracts that the team might want to shed next season.

Finally, I thought it would be good to sum up just how substantial these potential future needs were at each position leaguewide. The table below sums 4 points for teams that have that position in 1st place, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th.

Pos1st2nd3rd4thAggregate
S725246
TE642343
IDL554043
LB4331142
CB461036
WR234227
RB017522
EDGE142222
IOL221218
T111514
QB01207

As will become evident when compared to Jason’s drafting strategies, high value positions like quarterback, offensive line, and edge rusher show up the lowest on the list, while lower valued positions like safety, tight end, and linebacker show up high. Interior defensive line is one divergent position here. But this can also be resolved by observing that positions like quarterback and offensive line in particular tend to have contracts that last longer, and thus are signed for longer terms and have less risk of negative contract fate. This table could suggest that seeing some of those lower value positions drafted in the middle to late rounds could be ones to especially look for as long term competition for incumbent players.

2025 Projected UDFA Class Sizes

With only a few days before the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s that time again to take a look at how many undrafted free agents (UDFAs) each team might sign.

TeamRoster #Draft PicksProjected UDFA #
Vikings65421
Jaguars591021
Ravens591120
Titans64818
Rams64818
Chargers651015
Colts69714
Bills661014
Broncos70713
Bengals72612
Browns681012
Patriots691011
Raiders70911
Seahawks691011
Panthers70911
Bears72711
Buccaneers74610
Eagles72810
Dolphins701010
Falcons75510
Lions7479
Packers7389
Jets7389
Saints7299
Commanders7659
Giants7389
Steelers7668
Texans7578
Chiefs7587
49ers73116
Cardinals7965
Cowboys7794

As always, the formula used to calculate these projections is simple: subtract from the maximum roster size (90) the number of players currently on the roster, and the number of draft picks each team currently has.

This season, the Vikings and Jaguars are on top with an estimate of 21 UDFAs, with the Ravens right behind at 20. For Jacksonville and Baltimore this is clearly due to having the fewest players under contract as of now. But for Minnesota, it’s because they currently possess the fewest draft picks in the league, at only 4. It’s clear that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah looks set to build rookie depth among the undrafted ranks this season.

On the other end, the Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chiefs are among the teams projected to sign the fewest UDFAs. Other than Arizona, which has also has the most players currently under contract, none of these teams are notably low in draft picks. These are teams that could end up cutting several veterans if they sign a more typical UDFA class size.

Because draft day trades and other transactions will happen, these numbers will not be the final result. They may, however, give some hints as to what teams could do during and immediately after the draft. Teams with a high numbered UDFA potential could lower this number by acquiring more picks in this draft, either by trading down or trading away future picks. Teams with a low numbered UDFA potential could raise this number by trading up in this draft, or defer some picks into future drafts via trades, to lower the number of picks they make now. Teams on this low end are also more liable to cut some veterans currently on the roster.

Studying Outcomes Of Each Of The 2011-2020 Rookie Classes

Yesterday, I launched the Rookie Classes By APY page, and explained its methodology and looked at leaguewide trends by team and position from the 2011 to 2020 rookie classes. In its simplest explanation, this page reranks rookie classes by the maximum APY each player has signed for in his career.

Today, I’ll take a look at each draft from this ten season period individually, and highlight some notable outcomes that occurred in each one. Each section will contain the top 32 maximum APYs signed (an estimated “1st round”) along with other observations.

2011

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Julio JonesWRATL16$22,000,000
2Cam NewtonQBCAR11$20,760,000
3Von MillerEDGEDEN12$20,000,000
4Colin KaepernickQBSF236$19,000,000
5Tyrod TaylorQBBAL6180$18,000,000
6A.J. GreenWRCIN14$17,971,000
7Cameron JordanEDGENO124$17,500,000
8Muhammad WilkersonIDLNYJ130$17,200,000
9Justin HoustonEDGEKC370$16,833,333
10J.J. WattIDLHOU111$16,666,667
11Anthony CastonzoLTIND122$16,500,000
12Cameron HeywardIDLPIT131$16,400,000
13Andy DaltonQBCIN235$16,000,000
14Marcell DareusIDLBUF13$15,850,000
15Nate SolderLTNE117$15,500,000
16Jurrell CaseyIDLTEN377$15,100,000
17Robert QuinnEDGELAR114$14,253,724
18Jason KelceCPHI6191$14,250,000
19Patrick PetersonCBARI15$14,010,000
20Richard ShermanCBSEA5154$14,000,000
21Tyron SmithLTDAL19$12,200,000
22Chris Harris Jr.CBDENUDFA$12,050,000
23Ryan KerriganEDGEWAS116$11,500,000
24Doug BaldwinWRSEAUDFA$11,500,000
25Rodney HudsonCKC255$11,250,000
26Byron MaxwellCBSEA6173$10,500,000
27Jimmy SmithCBBAL127$10,275,500
28Corey LiugetIDLLAC118$10,250,000
29Mario AddisonEDGECHIUDFA$10,150,000
30Randall CobbWRGB264$10,000,000
31Julius ThomasTEDEN4129$9,200,000
32Kyle RudolphTEMIN243$9,025,000

This draft was famous for Cam Newton and all but one of the non-quarterbacks in the top 16 making the Pro Bowl at a minimum, with several likely Hall of Famers among this group, too. Newton and Von Miller, the actual top two picks, are almost the same here, but barely get trumped by Julio Jones. But while several actual 1st round quarterbacks busted, others succeeded to varying extents along Newton: Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton most notably, and Tyrod Taylor makes an odd showing at 5th overall due to a brief starter’s contract he got with the Bills.

The 49ers headed this class in value found: in addition to Kaepernick, it landed players like Chris Culliver (38th), Aldon Smith (39th), Daniel Kilgore (78th), and Ian Williams (93rd). But you can really see the foundation laid for multiple future Super Bowl teams with the next four teams in total value: the Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots. Let’s just take a look at the players in the top 100 for all four teams:

Ravens

  • Tyrod Taylor (5th)
  • Jimmy Smith (27th)
  • Torrey Smith (36th)
  • Pernell McPhee (40th)
  • Jah Reid (84th)

Seahawks

  • Richard Sherman (20th)
  • Doug Baldwin (24th)
  • KJ Wright (45th)
  • Malcolm Smith (58th)
  • James Carpenter (59th)
  • Ron Parker (66th)

Broncos

  • Von Miller (3rd)
  • Chris Harris Jr. (22nd)
  • Julius Thomas (31st)
  • Orlando Franklin (43rd)
  • Rahim Moore (76th)
  • Virgil Green (95th)

Patriots

  • Nate Solder (15th)
  • Marcus Cannon (47th)
  • Shane Vereen (75th)
  • Ryan Mallett (81st)
  • Lee Smith (90th)

Meanwhile, at the back of the class…this was a brutally bad draft for the Lions. They took the only non-quarterback in the top 16 who failed to make a Pro Bowl in Nick Fairley, who ranked 44th…and that’s it. No other player estimated to be draftable. That’s because Detroit’s rookie class included two megabusts in the 2nd round in Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure–neither of which even made it to a second contract–and no picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. The Colts also fare 2nd worst in total value found, keeping little beyond Anthony Castonzo, and likely contributing to the downfall of longtime GM Bill Polian.

2012

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Russell WilsonQBSEA375$49,000,000
2Kirk CousinsQBWAS4102$45,000,000
3Ryan TannehillQBMIA18$29,500,000
4Andrew LuckQBIND11$24,594,000
5Nick FolesQBPHI388$22,000,000
6Bobby WagnerLBSEA247$18,000,000
7Brock OsweilerQBDEN257$18,000,000
8Case KeenumQBHOUUDFA$18,000,000
9Fletcher CoxIDLPHI112$17,100,000
10Chandler JonesEDGENE121$17,000,000
11Olivier VernonEDGEMIA372$17,000,000
12Trumaine JohnsonCBLAR365$16,742,400
13Melvin IngramEDGELAC118$16,000,000
14Harrison SmithSMIN129$16,000,000
15Josh NormanCBCAR5143$15,000,000
16Alshon JefferyWRCHI245$14,599,000
17Malik JacksonIDLDEN5137$14,250,000
18Brandon BrooksRGHOU376$14,050,000
19Whitney MercilusEDGEHOU126$13,500,000
20Stephon GilmoreCBBUF110$13,000,000
21T.Y. HiltonWRIND392$13,000,000
22Janoris JenkinsCBLAR239$12,500,000
23Lavonte DavidLBTB258$12,500,000
24Luke KuechlyLBCAR19$12,359,059
25Kevin ZeitlerRGCIN127$12,000,000
26Nick PerryEDGEGB128$12,000,000
27Cordy GlennLTBUF241$12,000,000
28Akiem HicksIDLNO389$12,000,000
29Riley ReiffRTDET123$11,750,000
30Kelechi OsemeleLGBAL260$11,700,000
31Casey HaywardCBGB262$11,416,667
32Mitchell SchwartzRTCLE237$11,255,000

On the surface this looks like an exceptionally strong quarterback class, with the position taking seven of the top eight spots. But there are a couple of obvious caveats here: the Texans got overexuberant when they signed Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos in 2016, only to trade him away in a salary dump one season later. Denver then returned serve by signing Case Keenum for the same APY two seasons later.

The Seahawks once again dominated this rookie class, continuing to lay the foundation for their future success. In addition to Russell Wilson, they got Booby Wagner as that one non-quarterback in the top eight, and also added Bruce Irvin (42nd), JR Sweezy (71st), Jeremy Lane (78th), Jermaie Kearse (88th), and DeShawn Shead (96th). The Bengals stand out as well with Kevin Zeitler (25th), Vontaze Burfict (36th), Dre Kirkpatrick (37th), Marvin Jones (54th), Mohamed Sanu (69th), and George Iloka (74th).

This was another bad rookie class for the Lions: very little value beyond Riley Reiff (29th) and Tahir Whitehead (72nd). The Falcons also did poorly even after accounting for draft capital traded away to get Julio Jones the previous draft, largely due to 2nd rounder Peter Konz only lasting three seasons.

There were a couple of high variances in total versus relative value here, one in each direction. Despite having completely desiccated draft capital due to the excesses of Al Davis–the Raiders didn’t pick until 95th overall that draft–Reggie McKenzie was still able to add value commensurate with those picks, even if the total talent found was low. On the other end, the Browns identified a lot of good talent in this draft, but did not make good uses of their actual 1st round picks in Trent Richardson (133rd) and Brandon Weeden (127th). And to add insult to injury, many of the players that did have good value in their careers–Mitchell Schwartz (32nd), Tashaun Gipson (57th), Travis Benjamin (73rd)–utilized it more for other teams.

2013

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Geno SmithQBNYJ239$37,500,000
2DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU127$27,250,000
3Lane JohnsonRTPHI14$25,000,000
4David BakhtiariLTGB4109$23,000,000
5Keenan AllenWRLAC376$20,025,000
6Ezekiel AnsahEDGEDET15$17,143,000
7Travis KelceTEKC363$17,125,000
8Darius SlayCBDET236$16,683,333
9Robert WoodsWRBUF241$16,250,000
10Adam ThielenWRMINUDFA$16,200,000
11Kawann ShortIDLCAR244$16,100,000
12Mike GlennonQBTB373$15,000,000
13Terron ArmsteadLTNO375$15,000,000
14Le’Veon BellRBPIT248$14,544,000
15Xavier RhodesCBMIN125$14,020,000
16Tyrann MathieuSARI369$14,000,000
17Desmond TrufantCBATL122$13,750,000
18A.J. BouyeCBHOUUDFA$13,500,000
19Ryan JensenCBAL6203$13,000,000
20Jamie CollinsLBNE252$12,500,000
21Eric FisherLTKC11$12,000,000
22Sheldon RichardsonIDLNYJ113$12,000,000
23J.C. TretterCGB4122$10,850,000
24Tavon AustinWRLAR18$10,555,501
25Zach ErtzTEPHI235$10,550,000
26Alec OgletreeLBLAR130$10,500,000
27Brandon WilliamsIDLBAL394$10,500,000
28Star LotuleleiIDLCAR114$10,000,000
29Kyle LongRGCHI120$10,000,000
30Logan RyanSNE383$10,000,000
31Jordan PoyerSPHI7218$9,750,000
32Micah HydeSGB5159$9,625,000

It was known in advance that the quarterback rookie class was going to be weak in 2013, and for a long time, that was borne out in the results. At the time, Geno Smith was widely considered the only possible 1st round valued quarterback, and he fell to the 2nd round despite being in attendance in New York. And for almost his entire career, it looked like his estimated value would be nothing higher than a 4th rounder…until he turned it around, and just a few days ago got an extension from the Raiders that skyrocketed him all the way to 1st overall on this list.

The Eagles were second in total value and first in relative value, led by Lane Johnson (3rd), Zach Ertz (25th), and Bennie Logan (43rd). The Eagles also drafted Jordan Poyer (31st), but unfortunately cut him during his rookie season. The 49ers did not have any players in the estimated top 32, but did have 13 players as estimated as being draftable. The Packers also dominated the actual middle rounds with three estimated 1st round valued players in David Bakhtiari (4th), JC Tretter (23rd), and Micah Hyde (32nd).

The Saints and Ravens did very well with little. Despite getting their 2nd rounder stripped for the bounty scandal, and only having five actual draft picks. they got the recently retired Terron Armstead (13th), along with Kenny Stills (44th) and Kenny Vaccarro (59th), and found 4 UDFAs with estimated draftable talent. Baltimore, meanwhile, despite whiffing on their actual 1st round pick in Matt Elam, still got Ryan Jensen (19th), Brandon Williams (27th), Ricky Wagner (34th), and Kyle Juszczyk (70th).

On the other end, this was yet another bad Browns draft, with only three estimated draftable players, the highest in Barkevious Mingo (105th, a 4th round value) taken with the actual 6th overall pick. The Colts also did very poorly, as Ryan Grigson, somehow being the defending Executive Of The Year over John Elway, only identifying one player in the top 200: kicker Brandon McManus (76th) signed as a UDFA…who didn’t make it out of training camp, and one season later was acquired by Elway to continue the Broncos’ longstanding excellence in kicking.

2014

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Derek CarrQBLV236$40,474,160
2Aaron DonaldIDLLAR113$31,666,667
3Davante AdamsWRGB253$28,000,000
4Jimmy GaroppoloQBNE262$27,500,000
5Khalil MackEDGELV15$23,500,000
6Jake MatthewsLTATL16$22,500,000
7Teddy BridgewaterQBMIN132$21,000,000
8Demarcus LawrenceEDGEDAL234$21,000,000
9Mike EvansWRTB17$20,500,000
10Brandin CooksWRNO120$19,882,353
11Zack MartinRGDAL116$18,425,000
12Odell Beckham Jr.WRNYG112$18,000,000
13Allen RobinsonWRJAX261$17,980,000
14Blake BortlesQBJAX13$17,483,500
15C.J. MosleyLBBAL117$17,000,000
16Dee FordEDGEKC123$17,000,000
17Shaquil BarrettEDGEDENUDFA$17,000,000
18Sammy WatkinsWRBUF14$16,000,000
19Taylor LewanLTTEN111$16,000,000
20Joel BitonioLGCLE235$16,000,000
21Jarvis LandryWRMIA263$15,982,000
22Jadeveon ClowneyEDGEHOU11$15,967,200
23Kyle FullerCBCHI114$14,000,000
24Anthony BarrLBMIN19$13,500,000
25Andrew NorwellLGCARUDFA$13,300,000
26Ja’Wuan JamesRTMIA119$12,750,000
27Kyle Van NoyEDGEDET240$12,750,000
28Corey LinsleyCGB5161$12,500,000
29Charles Leno Jr.LTCHI7246$12,500,000
30Malcolm ButlerCBNEUDFA$12,250,000
31Stephon TuittIDLPIT246$12,000,000
32Timmy JerniganIDLBAL248$12,000,000

The Jaguars led in total value found in this rookie class. This is a bit inflated due to the ill fated extension they gave Blake Bortles that moved him up to 14th overall in estimated value. If that extension is taken out, he’d instead be ranked in the 6th round. But despite Bortles, the Jaguars found six other players with estimated 1st or 2nd round talent: Allen Robinson (13th), Telvin Smith (35th), Brandon Linder (38th), Allen Hurns (39th), Marqise Lee (51st), and Aaron Colvin (52nd).

But in relative value, three out of the four AFC West teams stand out here–just looking at the estimated 1st and 2nd round talent they found here:

Raiders

  • Derek Carr (1st)
  • Khalil Mack (5th)
  • Gabe Jackson (36th)
  • Denico Autry (40th)
  • Shelby Harris (50th)
  • TJ Carrie (62nd)

Broncos

  • Shaq Barrett (17th)
  • Bradley Roby (37th)
  • Matt Paradis (45th)

Chiefs

  • Dee Ford (16th)
  • Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (53rd)
  • Albert Wilson (61st)

There are caveats here–Mack was traded to the Bears, while Harris utilized the bulk of his production with the Broncos, which contributed to the Raiders’ success being much more limited than for the Broncos or Chiefs. But this was Reggie McKenzie’s one shining rookie class before things fell apart later.

As for the fourth AFC West team, this was a rough one for the Chargers, aggravated by regular aggravated injuries to actual 1st round pick Jason Verrett (estimated at 83rd). But no one was as dreadful as the Jets this season: it started with 1st round megabust Calvin Pryor, who couldn’t even get a second contract, continued with whiffing on Jace Amaro in the 2nd round, and only Quincy Enunwa (49th) was about to garner a contract within the top 120. The Saints also did poorly beyond Brandin Cooks (10th); the only other player they found within the top 180 was Todd Davis (92nd)…who ended up getting claimed off waivers by the Broncos and having a successful career in Denver.

2015

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Danielle HunterEDGEMIN388$35,600,000
2Stefon DiggsWRMIN5146$24,000,000
3Leonard WilliamsIDLNYJ16$21,500,000
4Frank ClarkEDGESEA263$20,800,000
5Amari CooperWRLV14$20,000,000
6Brandon ScherffRGWAS15$18,036,000
7Trey FlowersEDGENE4101$18,000,000
8Tyler LockettWRSEA369$17,300,000
9Arik ArmsteadIDLSF117$17,000,000
10D.J. HumphriesLTARI124$17,000,000
11Grady JarrettIDLATL5137$17,000,000
12Darren WallerTEBAL6204$17,000,000
13Bud DupreeEDGEPIT122$16,500,000
14Byron JonesCBDAL127$16,500,000
15Za’Darius SmithEDGEBAL4122$16,500,000
16Trent BrownRTSF7244$16,500,000
17Donovan SmithLTTB234$15,500,000
18Dante Fowler Jr.EDGEJAX13$15,000,000
19Todd GurleyRBLAR110$14,375,000
20Jameis WinstonQBTB11$14,000,000
21Trae WaynesCBMIN111$14,000,000
22Marcus PetersCBKC118$14,000,000
23Landon CollinsSNYG233$14,000,000
24Randy GregoryEDGEDAL260$13,900,000
25Shaq ThompsonLBCAR125$13,540,000
26Kwon AlexanderLBTB4124$13,500,000
27Laken TomlinsonLGDET128$13,333,333
28Preston SmithEDGEWAS238$13,000,000
29David JohnsonRBARI386$13,000,000
30Quandre DiggsSDET6200$13,000,000
31Shaquille MasonRGNE4131$11,666,667
32Andrus PeatLGNO113$11,500,000

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota headed the prevailing quarterback wisdom this season, and the two actually went 1st and 2nd overall. But neither proved to be the answer, with estimated rankings of 20th for Winston and 50th for Mariota. This turned out to be a bad rookie class for quarterbacks, with only Taylor Heinecke (61st) and Trevor Siemian (131st) being of additional note. On the other hand, this was an excellent rookie class to find an edge rusher, as one fourth of the estimated 1st rounders consisted of them.

This led to non-quarterback success for the Vikings, who come in here with the estimated top two picks instead in Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs. Minnesota crushed this rookie class like none other, adding onto them Trae Waynes (21st), Anthony Harris (24th), and Eric Kendricks (44th). They also found Justin Coleman (53rd) as a UDFA, but he didn’t make it out of their training camp as a rookie.

While neither hit on their quarterback picks, the Bucs and Titans had divergent results from the rest of their rookie classes. Tampa Bay was able to add Donovan Smith (17th), Kwon Alexander (26th), Ali Marpet (38th), and Adam Humphries (52nd) to round out a good class. Tennessee, on the other hand, took megabust Dorial Green-Beckham in the actual 2nd round, and only found two other players ranked within the top 180.

But it was the Jets who repeated in finding the worst total value–other than Leonard Williams (3rd), they found only two other players with estimated draftable value. The Saints also did poorly again, with only Andrus Peat (32nd) showing up in the top 99. And the Raiders could not repeat their efforts from 2014, with very little beyond Amari Cooper (5th)–who they traded away–and was further aggravated by giving up on Mario Edwards Jr. (88th) too early, cutting him before his rookie contract ended.

2016

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Dak PrescottQBDAL4135$60,000,000
2Jared GoffQBLAR11$53,000,000
3Carson WentzQBPHI12$32,000,000
4Chris JonesIDLKC237$31,750,000
5Tyreek HillWRKC5165$30,000,000
6Jacoby BrissettQBNE391$27,975,000
7Joey BosaEDGELAC13$27,000,000
8Laremy TunsilLTMIA113$25,000,000
9Jalen RamseyCBJAX15$24,100,000
10DeForest BucknerIDLSF17$23,000,000
11Kenny ClarkIDLGB127$21,333,333
12Javon HargraveIDLPIT389$21,000,000
13Ronnie StanleyLTBAL16$20,000,000
14Taylor DeckerLTDET116$20,000,000
15Michael ThomasWRNO247$19,250,000
16Xavien HowardCBMIA238$18,000,000
17Yannick NgakoueEDGEJAX369$17,788,000
18Matt JudonEDGEBAL5146$16,808,000
19Emmanuel OgbahEDGECLE232$16,350,000
20Leonard FloydEDGECHI19$16,000,000
21Joe ThuneyLGNE378$16,000,000
22Justin SimmonsSDEN398$15,250,000
23Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL14$15,000,000
24Jack ConklinRTTEN18$15,000,000
25Robbie ChosenWRNYJUDFA$14,750,000
26James BradberryCBCAR262$14,500,000
27Myles JackLBJAX236$14,250,000
28Deion JonesLBATL252$14,250,000
29Kevin ByardSTEN364$14,100,000
30William Jackson IIICBCIN124$13,500,000
31D.J. ReaderIDLHOU5166$13,250,000
32Jaylon SmithLBDAL234$12,750,000

Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the consensus top two picks in this rookie class, and it was mostly confirmed in the financial results…except that Dak Prescott edged out both of them for the top APY here, aided by excellent leverage used on the Cowboys in his latest extension. Dallas did very well this season, also adding Ezekiel Elliott (23rd), Jaylon Smith (32nd), and Maliek Collins (41st). The Ravens just edged them on top overall value, however, landing Ronnie Stanley (13th), Matt Judon (18th), Michael Pierce (58th), and Tavon Young (59th).

In relative value, the Falcons led the way, even despite Keanu Neal (94th) underperforming a bit despite being an actual 1st round pick, due to consistently drafting ahead of value and getting sevel players in the top 110. Despite whiffing on Paxton Lynch in the first round, the Broncos otherwise used their draft capital next best, with Justin Simmons (22nd) leading the way, and identifying 11 players with estimated draftable talent.

The Chiefs were very divergent in total versus relative value–despite getting two top five players in Chris Jones (4th) and Tyreek Hill (5th) that of course considerably boost their total value, their relative value came in poor due to having a high number of mid round draft picks that did not pan out as much as would be anticipated. This was even more damning for the Browns, who had 13 draft picks this season, but only seven of them produced estimated draftable value.

The Cardinals did the worst in total value this season, aggravated by the gamble on Robert Nkemdiche going belly up, not getting any players in the top 140. The Bucs also did not get anyone in the top 140, with Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence being disappointments, and the infamous selection of kicker Roberto Aguayo in the 2nd round. The Bills didn’t get anyone in the top 160 other than Shaq Lawson (51st).

2017

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Deshaun WatsonQBHOU112$46,000,000
2Patrick MahomesQBKC110$45,000,000
3Myles GarrettEDGECLE11$40,000,000
4T.J. WattEDGEPIT130$28,002,750
5Cooper KuppWRLAR369$26,700,000
6Chris GodwinWRTB384$22,000,000
7Trey HendricksonEDGENO3103$21,000,000
8Garett BollesLTDEN120$20,500,000
9Dion DawkinsLTBUF263$20,020,000
10Mike WilliamsWRLAC17$20,000,000
11Marlon HumphreyCBBAL116$19,500,000
12Marshon LattimoreCBNO111$19,400,000
13Ryan RamczykRTNO132$19,200,000
14Christian McCaffreyRBCAR18$19,000,000
15Jonathan AllenIDLWAS117$18,000,000
16Budda BakerSARI236$18,000,000
17Kenny GolladayWRDET396$18,000,000
18Cam RobinsonLTJAX234$17,583,333
19Jamal AdamsSNYJ16$17,500,000
20Tre’Davious WhiteCBBUF127$17,250,000
21Taylor MotonRTCAR264$17,000,000
22Haason ReddickEDGEARI113$15,000,000
23Alvin KamaraRBNO367$15,000,000
24Carl LawsonEDGECIN4116$15,000,000
25George KittleTESF5146$15,000,000
26Eddie JacksonSCHI4112$14,600,000
27Dalvin TomlinsonIDLNYG255$14,500,000
28Zach CunninghamLBHOU257$14,500,000
29Matt MilanoLBBUF5163$14,165,000
30Marcus WilliamsSNO242$14,000,000
31Evan EngramTENYG123$13,750,000
32David NjokuTECLE129$13,687,500

Deshaun Watson barely comes ahead of Patrick Mahomes here, but the database’s APY doesn’t know about the money in Mahomes’s contract that was pushed forward to make the practical APY higher, and given the highly divergent career paths of each, it’s highly likely that Mahomes will come out on top in the end. As the the top picks will indicate, this was a very strong rookie class for edge rusher (Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson), tackle (Garett Bolles, Dion Dawkins, Ryan Ramczyk), and wide receiver (Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin).

This rookie class is renowned for how outstanding of a job the Saints did, and it bears out with an amazing five players (Hendrickson, Marshon Lattimore, Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, Marcus Williams) estimated as first round value. But two other teams stand out here. In Chris Ballard’s first season as the Colts’ GM, he didn’t identify a first round talent but got great depth with finding 15 players with estimated draftable value. And the Chargers got excellent UDFA value by getting Michael Davis and Austin Ekeler on the team.

On the other end, this was the sign that things were going to get really bleak in the Meadowland for both teams. Both the Jets and Giants landed two excellent players in Jamal Adams/Marcus Maye and Dalvin Tomlinson/Evan Engram…but identified very little beyond them, contributing to desiccation of their depth. The Seahawks also struggled to get good relative value, coming in dead last there, likely aggravated by the unfortunate drafting of Malik McDowell after trading out of the first round.

Finally, many will be curious as to why the Chiefs’ total value comes out third worst here. That’s because this measure is more quantitative in nature, determining how many talented players teams could get out of rookie classes. The Chiefs found an unusually low four players of estimated draftable value. But use some common sense on the qualitative value of one of them.

2018

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Josh AllenQBBUF17$55,000,000
2Lamar JacksonQBBAL132$52,000,000
3Sam DarnoldQBNYJ13$33,500,000
4Baker MayfieldQBCLE11$33,333,333
5D.J. MooreWRCAR124$27,500,000
6Calvin RidleyWRATL126$23,000,000
7Daron PayneIDLWAS113$22,500,000
8Bradley ChubbEDGEDEN15$22,000,000
9Jordan MailataLTPHI7233$22,000,000
10Jaire AlexanderCBGB118$21,000,000
11Saquon BarkleyRBNYG12$20,600,000
12Denzel WardCBCLE14$20,100,000
13Quenton NelsonLGIND16$20,000,000
14Roquan SmithLBCHI18$20,000,000
15Shaquille LeonardLBIND236$19,700,000
16Josh SweatEDGEPHI4130$19,100,000
17Fred WarnerLBSF370$19,045,000
18Derwin JamesSLAC117$19,000,000
19Brian O’NeillRTMIN262$18,500,000
20Minkah FitzpatrickSMIA111$18,247,000
21Kolton MillerLTLV115$18,005,000
22Tremaine EdmundsLBBUF116$18,000,000
23Christian KirkWRARI247$18,000,000
24Carlton DavisCBTB263$18,000,000
25Charvarius WardCBDALUDFA$18,000,000
26Vita VeaIDLTB112$17,750,000
27Mike McGlincheyRTSF19$17,500,000
28Braden SmithRTIND237$17,500,000
29Harold LandryEDGETEN241$17,500,000
30Orlando Brown Jr.LTBAL383$16,662,000
31J.C. JacksonCBNEUDFA$16,500,000
32Jessie Bates IIISCIN254$16,005,000

The promise of this rookie class being strong on quarterbacks ended up being accurate, with four of five actual first rounders comprising the top four here. But it’s the Ravens and Bills that really stand out in identifying immense talent alongside the quarterbacks that they landed:

Ravens

  • Lamar Jackson (2nd)
  • Orlando Brown Jr. (30th)
  • Mark Andrews (39th)
  • Zach Sieler* (58th)
  • Darious Williams* (65th)
  • Hayden Hurst (77th)
  • Bradley Bozeman (92nd)

Bills

  • Josh Allen (1st)
  • Tremaine Edmunds (22nd)
  • Wyatt Teller* (38th)
  • Taron Johnson (57th)
  • Harrison Phillips (74th)

Now, the usual caveats of not harnessing the full value applies here, as the asterisked players have played the most elsewhere. But this was a great swan song to an outstanding career for Ozzie Newsome, and put Brandon Beane on the map to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Texans come out very poorly in this rookie class. Part of this is aggravated by the draft capital they gave up the season before to get Mahomes and Watson. But even with what they had left, the Chiefs failed to find any talent within the top 100 here, and the Texans found only three players of estimated draftable value.

But the Bengals don’t have the quarterback trade excuse to come out exceptionally bad here, led by the whiff of Billy Price in the actual 1sr round. This was also a bad job by the division rival Steelers, whiffing on both Terrell Edmunds and James Washington with their first two picks, and Chukwuma Okorafor the only player they landed within the top 100.

2019

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Kyler MurrayQBARI11$46,100,000
2Daniel JonesQBNYG16$40,000,000
3Maxx CrosbyEDGELV4106$35,500,000
4Nick BosaEDGESF12$34,000,000
5D.K. MetcalfWRSEA264$32,999,882
6A.J. BrownWRTEN251$32,000,000
7Josh Hines-AllenEDGEJAX17$28,250,000
8Brian BurnsEDGECAR116$28,200,000
9Christian WilkinsIDLMIA113$27,500,000
10Montez SweatEDGEWAS126$24,500,000
11Quinnen WilliamsIDLNYJ13$24,000,000
12Rashan GaryEDGEGB112$24,000,000
13Deebo SamuelWRSF236$23,850,000
14Jeffery SimmonsIDLTEN119$23,500,000
15Terry McLaurinWRWAS376$23,200,000
16Dexter LawrenceIDLNYG117$22,500,000
17Chris LindstromRGATL114$20,500,000
18Jawaan TaylorRTJAX235$20,000,000
19Tytus HowardRTHOU123$18,666,667
20Diontae JohnsonWRPIT366$18,355,000
21Byron MurphyCBARI233$18,000,000
22Dre’Mont JonesIDLDEN371$17,176,667
23Ed OliverIDLBUF19$17,000,000
24Elgton JenkinsLGGB244$17,000,000
25T.J. HockensonTEDET18$16,500,000
26Hunter RenfrowWRLV5149$15,850,000
27Zach AllenIDLARI365$15,250,000
28Jonah WilliamsLTCIN111$15,000,000
29Jamel DeanCBTB394$13,000,000
30Dawson KnoxTEBUF396$13,000,000
31Ben PowersLGBAL4123$13,000,000
32Carl GrandersonEDGENOUDFA$13,000,000

Kyler Murray was the consensus 1st overall pick as this rookie class was arriving, and nothing has stopped those results from continuing to bear out. But setting Daniel Jones aside, who ended up getting an ambitious extension from the Giants that did not pan out, it’s clear that this was the rookie class to find an edge rusher, interior defensive linemen, or wide receiver, as they dominate the 3rd through 16th overall spots here, and have plenty of other appearances in subsequent top 32 spots.

Speaking of edge rusher, it’s mind boggling how the Raiders saved themselves from a major disaster here. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock were immediately criticized for massively reaching on Clelin Ferrell with the actual 4th overall pick, and that criticism was quickly justified…but they somehow staved the damage by finding Maxx Crosby in the actual 4th round. Add onto this Hunter Renfrow (26th), Josh Jacobs (36th), Andre James (55th), and Foster Moreau (96th), and the Raiders did surprisingly well despite whiffing on another actual 1st round pick in Johnatham Abram, with actual 2nd rounder Trayvon Mullen also not panning out.

Beane also continued to build a fierce beast in Buffalo with four players within the top 100: Ed Oliver (23rd), Dawson Knox (30th), Devin Singletary (79th), and Tyrel Dodson (90th). This was also a strong showing for the Saints, getting six such players: Carl Granderson (32nd), Erik McCoy (37th), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jr. (52nd), Kaden Elliss (60th), Shy Tuttle (68th), and Deonte Harty (87th).

On the other end, the Panthers come out worst here, landing Brian Burns (who they later traded away), and only four other players of estimated draftable value. The Texans come out nearly as bad, with Tytus Howard being their only notable talent they actually kept. And the downfall of the Bengals continued to be evident here, with only Jonah Williams (28th) and Germaine Pratt (66th) coming in the top 100 here.

An odd divergence here comes from the Chiefs, who found only average total value, but were resourceful with the limited draft capital they had due to trading their first rounder for Frank Clark, landing some recognizable names like Juan Thornhill (62nd), Nick Allegretti (81st), Khalen Saunders (94th), and Mecole Hardman (100th).

But the oddest of all here is the Patriots coming out with the second highest total value, despite the accurate reputation that Bill Belichick drafted very poorly here. The key here is that he found 14 players with estimated draftable talent, but if you look at those players, there are no stars and few above average starters here. This illustrates just how far the depth chart a player within the top 250 or so can fall down within.

2020

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Joe BurrowQBCIN11$55,000,000
2Jordan LoveQBGB126$55,000,000
3Tua TagovailoaQBMIA15$53,100,000
4Justin HerbertQBLAC16$52,500,000
5Jalen HurtsQBPHI253$51,000,000
6Justin JeffersonWRMIN122$35,000,000
7CeeDee LambWRDAL117$34,000,000
8Brandon AiyukWRSF125$30,000,000
9Tee HigginsWRCIN233$28,750,000
10Tristan WirfsRTTB113$28,125,000
11Nnamdi MadubuikeIDLBAL371$24,500,000
12Derrick BrownIDLCAR17$24,000,000
13Andrew ThomasLTNYG14$23,500,000
14Michael Pittman, Jr.WRIND234$23,333,333
15Antoine Winfield, Jr.STB245$21,025,000
16A.J. TerrellCBATL116$20,250,000
17Robert HuntRGMIA239$20,000,000
18Jaylon JohnsonCBCHI250$19,802,000
19L’Jarius SneedCBKC4138$19,802,000
20Trevon DiggsCBDAL251$19,400,000
21Jonathan GreenardEDGEHOU390$19,000,000
22Michael OnwenuRTNE6182$19,000,000
23Jerry JeudyWRDEN115$17,500,000
24Jonah JacksonLGDET375$17,500,000
25Bryce HuffEDGENYJUDFA$17,033,333
26Chase YoungEDGEWAS12$17,000,000
27Zack BaunLBNO374$17,000,000
28Alex HighsmithEDGEPIT3102$17,000,000
29Xavier McKinneySNYG236$16,750,000
30Terence SteeleRTDALUDFA$16,500,000
31Kevin DotsonRGPIT4135$16,000,000
32Tershawn WhartonIDLKCUDFA$15,016,667

This was seen as a strong rookie class for quarterbacks from the beginning, and the conventional wisdom has played out even stronger than anticipated, with quarterbacks taking the top five spots with no serious caveats at play. That’s then followed by the next four spots taken by wide receivers, another strong position to target in this rookie class.

But it’s the Ravens, already having Lamar Jackson at quarterback, that again come out as the head of this class, landing five players within the top 80: Nnamdi Madubuike (11th), Patrick Queen (36th), Geno Stone (62nd), Broderick Washington (72nd), and Malik Harrison (77th). They also identified a sixth in Ben Bredeson (60th) that ended up having success elsewhere. The Saints also show strong here, although their top player, Zach Baun (27th) ended up finding the majority of his success in Philadelphia. Still, they also landed Cesar Ruiz (45th), Juwan Johnson (46th), Adam Trautman (92nd), and Malcolm Roach (96th).

Meanwhile, the luck that the Raiders had in 2019 decidely ran out in 2020 with a truly disastrous effort. This was aggravated by considerably mismangement of their two 1st round picks in Henry Ruggs, convicted of vehicular homicide, and Damon Arnette, commiting a wide array of violent crime. Neither made it out of their second seasons. The Raiders ended up only getting four players of estimated draftable value, none within the top 60.

This was also a rough draft for the Texans, getting only three players of estimated draftable value, and the Cardinals, with only five such players, and none within the top 75. And the Jets’ struggles continue with having the second worst relative value to the Raiders here, not getting the most out of actual 1st round pick Mekhi Becton (47th), and whiffing on players like Denzel Mims and Jabari Zuniga. This was despite finding Bryce Huff (25th) as a UDFA.

Bonus – 2021, In Progress

RankPlayerPos.Original TeamActual RoundActual PickTop APY
1Trevor LawrenceQBJAX11$55,000,000
2Ja’Marr ChaseWRCIN15$40,250,000
3Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET4112$30,002,500
4Jaylen WaddleWRMIA16$28,250,000
5Penei SewellRTDET17$28,000,000
6Christian DarrisawLTMIN123$26,000,000
7Milton WilliamsIDLPHI373$26,000,000
8Jaycee HornCBCAR18$25,000,000
9DeVonta SmithWRPHI110$25,000,000
10Alim McNeillIDLDET372$24,250,000
11Nico CollinsWRHOU389$24,250,000
12Patrick Surtain IICBDEN19$24,000,000
13Trey SmithRGKC6226$23,402,000
14Landon DickersonLGPHI237$21,000,000
15Christian BarmoreIDLNE238$21,000,000
16Dan Moore Jr.LTPIT4128$20,500,000
17Justin FieldsQBCHI111$20,000,000
18Gregory RousseauEDGEBUF130$20,000,000
19Osa OdighizuwaIDLDAL375$20,000,000
20Aaron BanksLGSF248$19,250,000
21Alaric JacksonLTLARUDFA$19,250,000
22Tyson CampbellCBJAX233$19,125,000
23Samuel CosmiRGWAS251$18,500,000
24Creed HumphreyCKC263$18,000,000
25Paulson AdeboCBNO376$18,000,000
26Spencer BrownRTBUF393$18,000,000
27Quinn MeinerzRGDEN398$18,000,000
28Deommodore LenoirCBSF5172$17,960,000
29Will FriesRGIND7248$17,544,000
30Trevon MoehrigSLV243$17,000,000
31Dayo OdeyingboEDGEIND254$16,000,000
32Jevon HollandSMIA236$15,100,000

Caution has to be exuded with this rookie class, as several top players have yet to sign a contract other than their rookie contract. But it’s fun to look at some early trends here.

This was believed to be another strong class for quarterbacks, but only consensus 1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence led up to his billing, as Justin Fields (20th) is the only other quarterback to break the estimated 1st round for now, and he’ll be pushed down by more upcoming extensions unless he takes the next step forward with the Jets.

Among total value, the Lions are set to be the top of the class here, with three players in the top ten in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Alim McNeill, and four others within the top 100. The Eagles also set the stage for their Super Bowl winning team with three in the top 14 in Milton Williams, Devonta Smith, and Landon Dickerson.

In relative value, it’s the Chiefs that come out on top: despite having little draft capital due to trading their first round pick for Orlando Brown Jr., they still got four top 100 players in Trey Smith (currently 13th, likely to go higher once he is extended), Creed Humphrey (24th), Nick Bolton (33rd), and Noah Gray (71st). The Rams are right behind them; also without a 1st round pick due to trading for Matt Stafford, they also got four top 100 players: Alaric Jackson (21st), Tutu Atwell (47th), Ernest Jones (50th), and Bobby Brown III (62nd).

On the poor end, the Chargers are currently a false positive due to Rashawn Slater yet to have gotten a new contract, and Asante Samuel Jr. is still a free agent. But little is going to save the Giants, given the steady flameout of Kadarius Toney’s career, and very little else. It was also hard for the Seahawks to ever do well in total value with only three draft picks, but they weren’t even able to fortify that with undrafted talent, with Jon Rhattigan and Jake Curhan currently the only one of their UDFAs from this class coming out with estimated draftable talent.

New OTC Page: Rookie Classes By APY

Last month, Ben Baldwin had a fun tweet I found quite intriguing, reranking the 2020 NFL Draft by size of players’ second contracts by APY:

Given that the source for this data is right here at OTC, it was evident to me that this exercise could be done for any draft. I also decided to use a different twist on this–instead of ranking by second contract, I looked at ranking to the highest APY each player has ever signed for.

This led to the construction of the Rookie Classes By APY page, found within this link.

The methodology is fairly simple: obtain each player’s maximum APY in his career, then rank all the players on such, and give an estimation of which round, if any, they would have been drafted in based solely on this APY relative to the total number of draft picks that season (~256). Obviously, maximum APY is not going to be a precise overlap on the overall player performance–some positions, particularly quarterback, get paid higher even as backups, and plenty of times a team has overestimated how much a player is worth when they sign such players in free agency. But there is enough correlation that I found this exercise to be useful.

Positional Rankings, 2011 to 2020

The columns on the left tally up the total number of players at each position in each estimated round, while the columns on the right express a percentage of such total players.

Pos.1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th
QB35641912128 36.5%6.3%4.2%19.8%12.5%12.5%8.3%
EDGE51262629272624 24.4%12.4%12.4%13.9%12.9%12.4%11.5%
T40242423182718 23.0%13.8%13.8%13.2%10.3%15.5%10.3%
WR43413230426453 14.1%13.4%10.5%9.8%13.8%21.0%17.4%
IDL37374431324543 13.8%13.8%16.4%11.5%11.9%16.7%16.0%
CB37373332404848 13.5%13.5%12.0%11.6%14.5%17.5%17.5%
G19303021212825 10.9%17.2%17.2%12.1%12.1%16.1%14.4%
S18353332323329 8.5%16.5%15.6%15.1%15.1%15.6%13.7%
LB19403546395438 7.0%14.8%12.9%17.0%14.4%19.9%14.0%
C519161510137 5.9%22.4%18.8%17.6%11.8%15.3%8.2%
TE10262627203130 5.9%15.3%15.3%15.9%11.8%18.2%17.6%
RB7192533334242 3.5%9.5%12.4%16.4%16.4%20.9%20.9%
K001610522 0.0%0.0%45.7%28.6%14.3%5.7%5.7%
P00422725 0.0%0.0%10.0%55.0%17.5%5.0%12.5%
FB00281123 0.0%0.0%7.7%30.8%42.3%7.7%11.5%
LS00022280 0.0%0.0%0.0%6.3%68.8%25.0%0.0%

Here were some of the notable trends I saw, and it’s worth comparing to Jason’s earlier work of positional drafting strategies:

  • Quarterback is very feast or famine–as is well known, the pay between starter level and backup level is vast, resulting in very few contracts ranked in the 2nd or 3rd round. However, even backups get sizeable contracts that end up in that 4th to 6th round range, roughly within a rank of 100th to 200th.
  • The ends of both lines–tackle and edge rusher–are very first round heavy, with pluralities between one fourth and one fifth falling within the top 32 ranked players. This is more confirmation that along with quarterback, these positions should be drafted highly
  • Wide receiver shows a bit of a U curve, with high 1st round rankings descending to a trough right in the middle, at the 4th round, before ascending again to frequent numbers in the late rounds. This likely indicates the difference between #1 and #2 WRs, versus slot receivers and backups.
  • Interior defensive line and cornerback are distributed fairly evenly throughout the rankings, showing value all throughout each round of such a hypothetical draft.
  • Guard salaries lag behind the above a bit, with most falling in the 2nd to 3rd round range–however, the trend of increased salaries at the position could see this change in the future.
  • Most remaining positions on offense and defense show low quantities in the early rankings, and increasing amounts later on, again suggesting that these are not priority positions to pursue.
  • Fullback and the special teams positions of course round out the bottom, but even viable starters there tend to cluster in the rankings around the 3rd round (kicker), 4th round (punter), or 5th round (long snapper and fullback). This does not suggest that these positions should be drafted then, or anywhere. But it does demonstrate that players that stick here are still able to earn APYs higher than fringe players, including some draft picks, that end up having shorter careers, not even becoming vested veterans.

Team Rankings, 2011 to 2020

On the Rookie Classes By APY page, there are two team rankings listed by each rookie class:

  • Total value, expressing how much absolute talent teams were able to find in the rookie class.
  • Relative value, expressing how well teams used their draft capital to find talent in the rookie class.

Note that each player is assigned by the team he was either drafted by, or signed as an undrafted free agent. This does not mean that the team derived the entire value of the player’s career, only that it was responsible for first identifying the player as one desired to add onto the team as a rookie.

Here’s a tabulation on how each team ranked in the past ten rookie classes, and the total ranking for each team on the left, expressed as the sum of each ten rankings. Because these are rankings, lower is better.

Total Value

RkTeam11121314151617181920
1Ravens3194122151211
2Cowboys6922117264156
349ers1281268274548
4Patriots5181514591716214
5Seahawks21251341224141216
6Jaguars2420161134211765
7Eagles18821920141861112
8Rams2031381019892715
9Dolphins15102071217268183
10Bills717723313112337
11Broncos47281025525121613
12Packers19113626813232019
13Vikings21619201252022142
14Chiefs171612531830301711
15Browns114324232011112618
16Bengals26218161410731299
17Texans12514319119323032
18Raiders10218229222919131
19Saints2527931301612754
20Colts311231292715222410
21Chargers825263011213102827
22Bucs29132128629277823
23Lions3230101821131025924
24Bears13312499323243126
25Commanders9142715163016261921
26Steelers1615524182614282329
27Cardinals2322622173228151330
28Falcons2232112724622182228
29Giants2729301722233213717
30Titans2824292528719291022
31Panthers30232321152815203220
32Jets14261732322431212525

Relative Value

RkTeam11121314151617181920
1Cowboys42256375495
2Ravens3215235592252
3Patriots1216816109413624
4Eagles287117144211720
5Saints1910227321232011
649ers126631173110583
7Jaguars15142021632091029
8Rams17818211510672214
9Bills1327152021298334
10Bears52913129131725129
11Dolphins71529911151810428
12Packers21941025813282311
13Seahawks21271421832142717
14Broncos9424422226231626
15Chiefs2620163426252656
16Texans14319513117313027
17Chargers11242224625282118
18Falcons83033024114111723
19Vikings221123281192218198
20Raiders18512128222724232
21Steelers1013725182312292415
22Colts231931826141152813
23Bucs2712102673024211410
24Panthers3023111382015193121
25Bengals296281123616323212
26Lions3232922201711221330
27Cardinals2517142912272962925
28Titans3125321930241917117
29Commanders20181715272823272616
30Jets6222132291631121831
31Giants24282618192130162019
32Browns1631307313228301522

It should be no surprise to see the Ravens and Cowboys as the far and away leaders here, as they have excelled in identifying large quantities of rookie talent for a very long time. On the other end, it’s pretty grim in the Meadowlands, as the Jets and Giants both fall among the four worst teams in both total and relative value.

Among teams with high variance between the two rankings, the Saints, Bears, and Falcons were all much better in relative value than total value, indicating that they made the most out of the draft picks they had, but may not have fortified as well with a UDFA signings or a high number of draft picks. On the opposite end, the Browns really stand out as a team that was average in identifying total talent throughout the rookie class, but was absolutely dreadful in using its draft picks to get it, which should not be surprising given many notorious draft pick busts that they made.

Number Of Estimated Draft Worthy Players, By Team And Round, 2011-2020

Finally, let’s take a look at how many players fall into each estimated round by team over these ten rookie classes:

Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7thTotal
Ravens16171716131511105
49ers1011142012191197
Seahawks81421121291894
Packers139101014231392
Jaguars91591616101792
Cowboys1218111611111190
Patriots128161516111088
Rams1011141212191088
Vikings11818139181087
Dolphins101471117151387
Broncos1111101611141386
Bengals910141012171486
Eagles101214917111386
Raiders61014171416986
Texans12771015191181
Browns71211149181081
Chiefs11910148171180
Colts71215126151380
Bills121113101311979
Saints13119910111174
Chargers71110195101274
Bears999914111374
Buccaneers128871615874
Cardinals10612107141271
Giants9107515101571
Lions1061091314870
Steelers9106121571069
Commanders9971311101069
Titans714868131268
Falcons89913961367
Panthers139467171066
Jets99695111362

Once again, the Ravens are the clear leaders of the class here, helped immensely by their expert college scouting, and getting more darts to throw via the compensatory pick system. And once again, the Jets don’t surprise by coming in dead last, perhaps one of several indications as to why they have not made the playoffs since the beginning of this time span.

The Ravens also have the clear lead in the number of estimated 1st round rankings (between 1st to 32nd) with 16. On the other end, despite coming in slightly above average with total players within the top 256 or so in maximum APY, the Raiders had the fewest estimated 1st rounders with only 6–especially indicting given multiple trades that got them more actual 1st round picks than typical.

* * * *

In an upcoming article, I’ll take a look at each of the ten rookie classes from 2011 to 2020 individually, and point out some notable results that came from each one.

Evaluating Contracts Cut In 2025

As the NFL undergoes a transition in priority from veteran free agency to the incoming rookie class, this is a good time to take a look at what veteran contracts were terminated in preparation for and during the beginning of free agency–and see what trends can be identified.

The list

Here are all the players that saw a negative contract fate that resulted in salary due in 2025 that was shed by their former teams. All players saw their contracts terminated unless they are marked with an asterisk, which indicates the player agreeing to a pay cut–the amount of which is expressed in the Cash Saved column–or with a hashtag, indicating the player retired. The number on the left column represents the player’s rank on OTC’s 2025 Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates List.

#PlayerFormer TeamPos.2025 Cash Due
56Aaron RodgersJetsQB$37,500,000
87Davante AdamsJetsWR$36,250,000
15Joey BosaChargersEDGE$25,360,000
 Javon Hargrave49ersIDL$20,750,000
 Cooper KuppRamsWR$20,000,000
24James BradberryEaglesCB$18,000,000
 Von MillerBillsEDGE$17,500,000
81Harold LandryTitansEDGE$17,500,000
53Tyler LockettSeahawksWR$17,000,000
26Jonathan AllenCommandersIDL$17,000,000
51Dre’Mont JonesSeahawksIDL$16,510,000
 Bradley Chubb*DolphinsEDGE$16,300,000
90Grady JarrettFalconsIDL$16,250,000
58Darius SlayEaglesCB$16,000,000
45Evan EngramJaguarsTE$15,750,000
 Dalvin TomlinsonBrownsIDL$14,500,000
 Preston SmithSteelersEDGE$13,400,000
32Marcus WilliamsRavensS$12,000,000
 Chidobe AwuzieTitansCB$12,000,000
71Za’Darius SmithLionsEDGE$11,000,000
 Shaq MasonTexansIOL$10,550,000
20Sheldon RankinsBengalsIDL$10,500,000
91Maliek Collins49ersIDL$10,000,000
12Sam Hubbard#BengalsEDGE$9,600,000
2Gardner MinshewRaidersQB$9,340,000
 Braden Smith*ColtsT$8,750,000
44Leonard Floyd49ersEDGE$8,450,000
94Alex CappaBengalsIOL$8,000,000
 Andre JamesRaidersIOL$7,120,000
42Kendall FullerDolphinsCB$7,000,000
33Juan ThornhillBrownsS$7,000,000
28Larry OgunjobiSteelersIDL$7,000,000
14Miles SandersPanthersRB$6,700,000
 Roy Robertson-HarrisSeahawksIDL$6,600,000
19Raekwon DavisColtsIDL$6,490,000
17Gerald EverettBearsTE$5,500,000
31Ja’Whaun BentleyPatriotsLB$5,500,000
 Rayshawn JenkinsSeahawksS$5,400,000
85DeMarcus WalkerBearsEDGE$5,250,000
62Garrett BradburyVikingsIOL$5,250,000
 David AndrewsPatriotsCB$5,000,000
 Jack ConklinBrownsT$5,000,000
80Mitch Morse#JaguarsIOL$4,650,000
79Kyle Juszczyk49ersRB$4,600,000
5Josh ReynoldsJaguarsWR$4,500,000
27Dane JacksonPanthersCB$4,350,000
35C.J. MosleyJetsLB$4,000,000
72George FantSeahawksT$3,800,000
 Andrew Wylie*CommandersT$3,750,000
 Matt Milano*BillsLB$3,600,000
25Shy Tuttle*PanthersIDL$3,500,000
 Ronald DarbyJaguarsCB$3,500,000
 Devin DuvernayJaguarsWR$3,400,000
 Durham SmytheDolphinsTE$3,375,000
68Tyrann Mathieu*SaintsCB$3,250,000
 Jamaal WilliamsSaintsRB$3,150,000
 Gus EdwardsChargersRB$3,125,000
 Raheem MostertDolphinsRB$3,065,000
 Sione TakitakiPatriotsLB$2,860,000
 Arthur MauletRavensCB$2,250,000
 Sam MartinBillsP$1,885,000

*player accepted a pay cut to stay with the team
#player has retired

This season, OTC’s Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates List identified 36 players that ended up on the list above. That is slightly down from the 38 identified in 2024. One improvement to the model that needs to be made for next season is that it did not find players who had previously taken pay cuts on a renegotiated contract. Otherwise, I think it would have been likely that Von Miller, Javon Hargrave, and Preston Smith would have made the Top 100 list.

However, among the 48 players that were due at least $3.75 million in 2025, 34 were on the Top 100 list. That makes up the grand majority of such players at 70.8%, and while that is down from 2024’s number of 76%, I still do believe that the model is doing well in identifying the broad swath of players who end up being cut or have their contract adjusted downward.

Two other players that are not in the list above but were on the Top 100 list deserve to be mentioned as well. They are Deebo Samuel (#50) and Christian Kirk (#6), who were instead traded. In Kirk’s case, it had been reported that he was going to be cut by the Jaguars, until the Texans swooped in and offered to take his contract via a trade.

2025 Cash Saved By Team and Position

Team2025 Cash Saved#
Jets$77,750,0003
Seahawks$49,310,0005
49ers$43,800,0004
Eagles$34,000,0002
Jaguars$31,800,0005
Dolphins$29,740,0004
Titans$29,500,0002
Chargers$28,485,0002
Bengals$28,100,0003
Browns$26,500,0003
Bills$22,985,0003
Commanders$20,750,0002
Steelers$20,400,0002
Rams$20,000,0001
Raiders$16,460,0002
Falcons$16,250,0001
Colts$15,240,0002
Panthers$14,550,0003
Ravens$14,250,0002
Patriots$13,360,0003
Lions$11,000,0001
Bears$10,750,0002
Texans$10,550,0001
Saints$6,400,0002
Vikings$5,250,0001
Row Labels2025 Cash Saved#
IDL$129,100,00011
EDGE$124,360,0009
WR$81,150,0005
CB$71,350,0009
QB$46,840,0002
IOL$35,570,0005
TE$24,625,0003
S$24,400,0003
T$21,300,0004
RB$20,640,0005
LB$15,960,0004
P$1,885,0001

In the team column to the left, 25 teams shed $597.18 million in 2025 salary. The Broncos, Bucs, Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers were the seven teams that did not conduct any major veteran cuts. The Seahawks and Jaguars led the way in quantity with 5 players, while the Jets leading far and away in salary shed is almost entirely due to Aaron Rodgers (due $37.5 million) and Davante Adams (due $36.25 million).

By position, this season it was the defensive front that took the biggest hits, with salary shed among interior defensive linemen and edge rushers each seeing those numbers in the nine digits. Wide receiver and cornerback continue their trend of having a high amount of salary shed as well, coming in at 3rd and 4th. The high figure at quarterback this season is again due to Rodgers being cut.

Running back and linebacker were exceptionally low, possibly indicating that the market correction on those positions has stabilized. The same could be true of safety, which saw much less disruption than the devastation the position saw last season.

Comparing The APY Of Extensions To Other Contracts

Yesterday, news broke that Derek Stingley Jr. had agreed to an extension with the Houston Texans, with multiple reports stating it was for three years and $90 million, thus $30 million APY. It was further clarified that the extension is appended not only to Stingley’s $5.43 million in cash that he was due on his rookie contract in 2025, but also a $17.595 million fifth year option that was available to be exercised in 2026.

This has led to some criticism that expressing this agreement as a $30M APY contract is misleading. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk instead argues that the remaining seasons on his rookie contract should be included, which would thus be expressed as $113 million over five seasons, or $22.6 million APY.

This got me curious into taking a look as to how the APYs of extensions compare to the APYs of typical contracts, where the starting season is the same as when it was signed, and to see what differences there were. This was easy to do with how we structure our contracts at OTC, where we express extensions in new money value (so for Stingley, $90 million over three seasons) and then denote the season that the extension actually starts (again with Stingley, his contract is marked as signed in 2025, but starting in 2027).

I took a look at the highest APYs by season and position from 2013 to 2025. This data is lengthy, so I will instead share it at this link to a Google Sheets document, which readers are free to look at.

What was found is that there is not that much variation between each position over each season. Obviously there will be outliers in either direction on occasion, but over this time period, the average amount of difference is only about $428,000, while the median difference is even smaller, at $85,417.

When broken down by average difference in APY by position, as shown below, the trends remain similar. The average of this averages is very similar, at about $450,000 and the median at about $152,000.

PositionAverage APY Difference
IDL$3,024,777
LG$2,957,000
S$1,376,558
RG$1,164,605
CB$797,227
C$754,722
LB$413,534
LS$306,653
K$188,739
EDGE$115,489
LT$48,244
TE$33,354
P($141,897)
FB($197,750)
RT($355,139)
QB($420,518)
RB($729,903)
WR($1,237,624)

The bottom line as I see it is that teams and agents are collectively doing a good job of accurately projecting where APYs will go when they sign extensions. Any one team or player is of course capable of getting a good deal on any single contract, but overall there does not appear to be a major advantage either way to getting an extension done, as the market corrects for seeing the new data points. There has been worthwhile criticism to consider about how news of contract data is disseminated. However, I think it’s also worthwhile to draw a consistent line between expressing extensions in new money terms (as we do here at OTC), and using a different expression is likely just going to muddy the waters with confusion, while not changing core negotiation factors.