Searching For Longer Term Needs For The 2025 NFL Draft
With the 2025 NFL Draft starting tomorrow, most observers are focused on the remaining immediate needs they perceive teams to have. However, the acquisition of rookies should also be seen as a long term play, due to the cost control they provide for up to four or five seasons. Thus, I decided to look for ways to identify some positions that each team might use some fortification for down the road.
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Commanders
EDGE
CB
RB
LB
Texans
IDL
LB
S
T
Chargers
S
CB
TE
IOL
Colts
IDL
CB
WR
T
Rams
CB
TE
RB
WR
Steelers
S
IDL
LB
RB
Ravens
TE
CB
WR
LB
Falcons
S
WR
TE
LB
Panthers
LB
CB
IDL
RB
Browns
IOL
IDL
S
LB
Dolphins
LB
IDL
WR
T
Chiefs
CB
LB
EDGE
T
Giants
LB
IDL
QB
TE
Bears
TE
S
LB
RB
49ers
WR
LB
QB
TE
Buccaneers
CB
QB
LB
TE
Vikings
LB
TE
IDL
S
Jets
S
IOL
RB
LB
Broncos
S
TE
IDL
IOL
Cowboys
S
EDGE
RB
LB
Saints
IDL
TE
WR
LB
Patriots
TE
WR
EDGE
T
Packers
CB
T
RB
WR
Titans
WR
RB
IOL
EDGE
Cardinals
IDL
CB
T
S
Eagles
TE
EDGE
S
LB
Seahawks
TE
IDL
CB
RB
Bengals
IOL
EDGE
S
LB
Jaguars
S
WR
IDL
RB
Lions
IDL
EDGE
S
LB
Bills
TE
S
RB
EDGE
Raiders
T
IOL
RB
LB
The table on the left, representing the top four positions of potential need in 2026, was produced by crossing two metrics that OTC has constructed. One is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2026. (First round rookies from 2022 are excluded, as many will see their fifth year options exercised after the draft.) And the other is the percentage of 2024 snaps from players that have a 60% or greater chance of having a negative contract fate, meaning that the contract would be terminated, or the player takes a pay cut. These two percentages are summed together for each team and position. It is possible for these percentages to exceed 100% due to players changing teams from 2024 to 2025.
The teams are sorted by the highest potential needs that could come from this roster churn in 2026–thus, the Commanders, Texans, and Chargers among the most, and the Raiders, Bills, and Lions among the least.
This chart does not guarantee nor suggest that teams will or should pursue their listed positions in the draft with higher priority. A proper holistic approach to the draft will emphasize getting the best football players as practical above all else. However, should teams end up drafting players that align with the positions listed for them, attention should be given by observers to see if those players could be future replacements for incumbents that are set to become free agents, or with contracts that the team might want to shed next season.
Finally, I thought it would be good to sum up just how substantial these potential future needs were at each position leaguewide. The table below sums 4 points for teams that have that position in 1st place, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th.
Pos
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Aggregate
S
7
2
5
2
46
TE
6
4
2
3
43
IDL
5
5
4
0
43
LB
4
3
3
11
42
CB
4
6
1
0
36
WR
2
3
4
2
27
RB
0
1
7
5
22
EDGE
1
4
2
2
22
IOL
2
2
1
2
18
T
1
1
1
5
14
QB
0
1
2
0
7
As will become evident when compared to Jason’s drafting strategies, high value positions like quarterback, offensive line, and edge rusher show up the lowest on the list, while lower valued positions like safety, tight end, and linebacker show up high. Interior defensive line is one divergent position here. But this can also be resolved by observing that positions like quarterback and offensive line in particular tend to have contracts that last longer, and thus are signed for longer terms and have less risk of negative contract fate. This table could suggest that seeing some of those lower value positions drafted in the middle to late rounds could be ones to especially look for as long term competition for incumbent players.
2025 Projected UDFA Class Sizes
With only a few days before the 2025 NFL Draft, it’s that time again to take a look at how many undrafted free agents (UDFAs) each team might sign.
Team
Roster #
Draft Picks
Projected UDFA #
Vikings
65
4
21
Jaguars
59
10
21
Ravens
59
11
20
Titans
64
8
18
Rams
64
8
18
Chargers
65
10
15
Colts
69
7
14
Bills
66
10
14
Broncos
70
7
13
Bengals
72
6
12
Browns
68
10
12
Patriots
69
10
11
Raiders
70
9
11
Seahawks
69
10
11
Panthers
70
9
11
Bears
72
7
11
Buccaneers
74
6
10
Eagles
72
8
10
Dolphins
70
10
10
Falcons
75
5
10
Lions
74
7
9
Packers
73
8
9
Jets
73
8
9
Saints
72
9
9
Commanders
76
5
9
Giants
73
8
9
Steelers
76
6
8
Texans
75
7
8
Chiefs
75
8
7
49ers
73
11
6
Cardinals
79
6
5
Cowboys
77
9
4
As always, the formula used to calculate these projections is simple: subtract from the maximum roster size (90) the number of players currently on the roster, and the number of draft picks each team currently has.
This season, the Vikings and Jaguars are on top with an estimate of 21 UDFAs, with the Ravens right behind at 20. For Jacksonville and Baltimore this is clearly due to having the fewest players under contract as of now. But for Minnesota, it’s because they currently possess the fewest draft picks in the league, at only 4. It’s clear that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah looks set to build rookie depth among the undrafted ranks this season.
On the other end, the Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chiefs are among the teams projected to sign the fewest UDFAs. Other than Arizona, which has also has the most players currently under contract, none of these teams are notably low in draft picks. These are teams that could end up cutting several veterans if they sign a more typical UDFA class size.
Because draft day trades and other transactions will happen, these numbers will not be the final result. They may, however, give some hints as to what teams could do during and immediately after the draft. Teams with a high numbered UDFA potential could lower this number by acquiring more picks in this draft, either by trading down or trading away future picks. Teams with a low numbered UDFA potential could raise this number by trading up in this draft, or defer some picks into future drafts via trades, to lower the number of picks they make now. Teams on this low end are also more liable to cut some veterans currently on the roster.
Studying Outcomes Of Each Of The 2011-2020 Rookie Classes
Today, I’ll take a look at each draft from this ten season period individually, and highlight some notable outcomes that occurred in each one. Each section will contain the top 32 maximum APYs signed (an estimated “1st round”) along with other observations.
This draft was famous for Cam Newton and all but one of the non-quarterbacks in the top 16 making the Pro Bowl at a minimum, with several likely Hall of Famers among this group, too. Newton and Von Miller, the actual top two picks, are almost the same here, but barely get trumped by Julio Jones. But while several actual 1st round quarterbacks busted, others succeeded to varying extents along Newton: Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton most notably, and Tyrod Taylor makes an odd showing at 5th overall due to a brief starter’s contract he got with the Bills.
The 49ers headed this class in value found: in addition to Kaepernick, it landed players like Chris Culliver (38th), Aldon Smith (39th), Daniel Kilgore (78th), and Ian Williams (93rd). But you can really see the foundation laid for multiple future Super Bowl teams with the next four teams in total value: the Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots. Let’s just take a look at the players in the top 100 for all four teams:
Ravens
Tyrod Taylor (5th)
Jimmy Smith (27th)
Torrey Smith (36th)
Pernell McPhee (40th)
Jah Reid (84th)
Seahawks
Richard Sherman (20th)
Doug Baldwin (24th)
KJ Wright (45th)
Malcolm Smith (58th)
James Carpenter (59th)
Ron Parker (66th)
Broncos
Von Miller (3rd)
Chris Harris Jr. (22nd)
Julius Thomas (31st)
Orlando Franklin (43rd)
Rahim Moore (76th)
Virgil Green (95th)
Patriots
Nate Solder (15th)
Marcus Cannon (47th)
Shane Vereen (75th)
Ryan Mallett (81st)
Lee Smith (90th)
Meanwhile, at the back of the class…this was a brutally bad draft for the Lions. They took the only non-quarterback in the top 16 who failed to make a Pro Bowl in Nick Fairley, who ranked 44th…and that’s it. No other player estimated to be draftable. That’s because Detroit’s rookie class included two megabusts in the 2nd round in Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure–neither of which even made it to a second contract–and no picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. The Colts also fare 2nd worst in total value found, keeping little beyond Anthony Castonzo, and likely contributing to the downfall of longtime GM Bill Polian.
On the surface this looks like an exceptionally strong quarterback class, with the position taking seven of the top eight spots. But there are a couple of obvious caveats here: the Texans got overexuberant when they signed Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos in 2016, only to trade him away in a salary dump one season later. Denver then returned serve by signing Case Keenum for the same APY two seasons later.
The Seahawks once again dominated this rookie class, continuing to lay the foundation for their future success. In addition to Russell Wilson, they got Booby Wagner as that one non-quarterback in the top eight, and also added Bruce Irvin (42nd), JR Sweezy (71st), Jeremy Lane (78th), Jermaie Kearse (88th), and DeShawn Shead (96th). The Bengals stand out as well with Kevin Zeitler (25th), Vontaze Burfict (36th), Dre Kirkpatrick (37th), Marvin Jones (54th), Mohamed Sanu (69th), and George Iloka (74th).
This was another bad rookie class for the Lions: very little value beyond Riley Reiff (29th) and Tahir Whitehead (72nd). The Falcons also did poorly even after accounting for draft capital traded away to get Julio Jones the previous draft, largely due to 2nd rounder Peter Konz only lasting three seasons.
There were a couple of high variances in total versus relative value here, one in each direction. Despite having completely desiccated draft capital due to the excesses of Al Davis–the Raiders didn’t pick until 95th overall that draft–Reggie McKenzie was still able to add value commensurate with those picks, even if the total talent found was low. On the other end, the Browns identified a lot of good talent in this draft, but did not make good uses of their actual 1st round picks in Trent Richardson (133rd) and Brandon Weeden (127th). And to add insult to injury, many of the players that did have good value in their careers–Mitchell Schwartz (32nd), Tashaun Gipson (57th), Travis Benjamin (73rd)–utilized it more for other teams.
It was known in advance that the quarterback rookie class was going to be weak in 2013, and for a long time, that was borne out in the results. At the time, Geno Smith was widely considered the only possible 1st round valued quarterback, and he fell to the 2nd round despite being in attendance in New York. And for almost his entire career, it looked like his estimated value would be nothing higher than a 4th rounder…until he turned it around, and just a few days ago got an extension from the Raiders that skyrocketed him all the way to 1st overall on this list.
The Eagles were second in total value and first in relative value, led by Lane Johnson (3rd), Zach Ertz (25th), and Bennie Logan (43rd). The Eagles also drafted Jordan Poyer (31st), but unfortunately cut him during his rookie season. The 49ers did not have any players in the estimated top 32, but did have 13 players as estimated as being draftable. The Packers also dominated the actual middle rounds with three estimated 1st round valued players in David Bakhtiari (4th), JC Tretter (23rd), and Micah Hyde (32nd).
The Saints and Ravens did very well with little. Despite getting their 2nd rounder stripped for the bounty scandal, and only having five actual draft picks. they got the recently retired Terron Armstead (13th), along with Kenny Stills (44th) and Kenny Vaccarro (59th), and found 4 UDFAs with estimated draftable talent. Baltimore, meanwhile, despite whiffing on their actual 1st round pick in Matt Elam, still got Ryan Jensen (19th), Brandon Williams (27th), Ricky Wagner (34th), and Kyle Juszczyk (70th).
On the other end, this was yet another bad Browns draft, with only three estimated draftable players, the highest in Barkevious Mingo (105th, a 4th round value) taken with the actual 6th overall pick. The Colts also did very poorly, as Ryan Grigson, somehow being the defending Executive Of The Year over John Elway, only identifying one player in the top 200: kicker Brandon McManus (76th) signed as a UDFA…who didn’t make it out of training camp, and one season later was acquired by Elway to continue the Broncos’ longstanding excellence in kicking.
The Jaguars led in total value found in this rookie class. This is a bit inflated due to the ill fated extension they gave Blake Bortles that moved him up to 14th overall in estimated value. If that extension is taken out, he’d instead be ranked in the 6th round. But despite Bortles, the Jaguars found six other players with estimated 1st or 2nd round talent: Allen Robinson (13th), Telvin Smith (35th), Brandon Linder (38th), Allen Hurns (39th), Marqise Lee (51st), and Aaron Colvin (52nd).
But in relative value, three out of the four AFC West teams stand out here–just looking at the estimated 1st and 2nd round talent they found here:
Raiders
Derek Carr (1st)
Khalil Mack (5th)
Gabe Jackson (36th)
Denico Autry (40th)
Shelby Harris (50th)
TJ Carrie (62nd)
Broncos
Shaq Barrett (17th)
Bradley Roby (37th)
Matt Paradis (45th)
Chiefs
Dee Ford (16th)
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (53rd)
Albert Wilson (61st)
There are caveats here–Mack was traded to the Bears, while Harris utilized the bulk of his production with the Broncos, which contributed to the Raiders’ success being much more limited than for the Broncos or Chiefs. But this was Reggie McKenzie’s one shining rookie class before things fell apart later.
As for the fourth AFC West team, this was a rough one for the Chargers, aggravated by regular aggravated injuries to actual 1st round pick Jason Verrett (estimated at 83rd). But no one was as dreadful as the Jets this season: it started with 1st round megabust Calvin Pryor, who couldn’t even get a second contract, continued with whiffing on Jace Amaro in the 2nd round, and only Quincy Enunwa (49th) was about to garner a contract within the top 120. The Saints also did poorly beyond Brandin Cooks (10th); the only other player they found within the top 180 was Todd Davis (92nd)…who ended up getting claimed off waivers by the Broncos and having a successful career in Denver.
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota headed the prevailing quarterback wisdom this season, and the two actually went 1st and 2nd overall. But neither proved to be the answer, with estimated rankings of 20th for Winston and 50th for Mariota. This turned out to be a bad rookie class for quarterbacks, with only Taylor Heinecke (61st) and Trevor Siemian (131st) being of additional note. On the other hand, this was an excellent rookie class to find an edge rusher, as one fourth of the estimated 1st rounders consisted of them.
This led to non-quarterback success for the Vikings, who come in here with the estimated top two picks instead in Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs. Minnesota crushed this rookie class like none other, adding onto them Trae Waynes (21st), Anthony Harris (24th), and Eric Kendricks (44th). They also found Justin Coleman (53rd) as a UDFA, but he didn’t make it out of their training camp as a rookie.
While neither hit on their quarterback picks, the Bucs and Titans had divergent results from the rest of their rookie classes. Tampa Bay was able to add Donovan Smith (17th), Kwon Alexander (26th), Ali Marpet (38th), and Adam Humphries (52nd) to round out a good class. Tennessee, on the other hand, took megabust Dorial Green-Beckham in the actual 2nd round, and only found two other players ranked within the top 180.
But it was the Jets who repeated in finding the worst total value–other than Leonard Williams (3rd), they found only two other players with estimated draftable value. The Saints also did poorly again, with only Andrus Peat (32nd) showing up in the top 99. And the Raiders could not repeat their efforts from 2014, with very little beyond Amari Cooper (5th)–who they traded away–and was further aggravated by giving up on Mario Edwards Jr. (88th) too early, cutting him before his rookie contract ended.
Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the consensus top two picks in this rookie class, and it was mostly confirmed in the financial results…except that Dak Prescott edged out both of them for the top APY here, aided by excellent leverage used on the Cowboys in his latest extension. Dallas did very well this season, also adding Ezekiel Elliott (23rd), Jaylon Smith (32nd), and Maliek Collins (41st). The Ravens just edged them on top overall value, however, landing Ronnie Stanley (13th), Matt Judon (18th), Michael Pierce (58th), and Tavon Young (59th).
In relative value, the Falcons led the way, even despite Keanu Neal (94th) underperforming a bit despite being an actual 1st round pick, due to consistently drafting ahead of value and getting sevel players in the top 110. Despite whiffing on Paxton Lynch in the first round, the Broncos otherwise used their draft capital next best, with Justin Simmons (22nd) leading the way, and identifying 11 players with estimated draftable talent.
The Chiefs were very divergent in total versus relative value–despite getting two top five players in Chris Jones (4th) and Tyreek Hill (5th) that of course considerably boost their total value, their relative value came in poor due to having a high number of mid round draft picks that did not pan out as much as would be anticipated. This was even more damning for the Browns, who had 13 draft picks this season, but only seven of them produced estimated draftable value.
The Cardinals did the worst in total value this season, aggravated by the gamble on Robert Nkemdiche going belly up, not getting any players in the top 140. The Bucs also did not get anyone in the top 140, with Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence being disappointments, and the infamous selection of kicker Roberto Aguayo in the 2nd round. The Bills didn’t get anyone in the top 160 other than Shaq Lawson (51st).
Deshaun Watson barely comes ahead of Patrick Mahomes here, but the database’s APY doesn’t know about the money in Mahomes’s contract that was pushed forward to make the practical APY higher, and given the highly divergent career paths of each, it’s highly likely that Mahomes will come out on top in the end. As the the top picks will indicate, this was a very strong rookie class for edge rusher (Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Trey Hendrickson), tackle (Garett Bolles, Dion Dawkins, Ryan Ramczyk), and wide receiver (Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin).
This rookie class is renowned for how outstanding of a job the Saints did, and it bears out with an amazing five players (Hendrickson, Marshon Lattimore, Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, Marcus Williams) estimated as first round value. But two other teams stand out here. In Chris Ballard’s first season as the Colts’ GM, he didn’t identify a first round talent but got great depth with finding 15 players with estimated draftable value. And the Chargers got excellent UDFA value by getting Michael Davis and Austin Ekeler on the team.
On the other end, this was the sign that things were going to get really bleak in the Meadowland for both teams. Both the Jets and Giants landed two excellent players in Jamal Adams/Marcus Maye and Dalvin Tomlinson/Evan Engram…but identified very little beyond them, contributing to desiccation of their depth. The Seahawks also struggled to get good relative value, coming in dead last there, likely aggravated by the unfortunate drafting of Malik McDowell after trading out of the first round.
Finally, many will be curious as to why the Chiefs’ total value comes out third worst here. That’s because this measure is more quantitative in nature, determining how many talented players teams could get out of rookie classes. The Chiefs found an unusually low four players of estimated draftable value. But use some common sense on the qualitative value of one of them.
The promise of this rookie class being strong on quarterbacks ended up being accurate, with four of five actual first rounders comprising the top four here. But it’s the Ravens and Bills that really stand out in identifying immense talent alongside the quarterbacks that they landed:
Ravens
Lamar Jackson (2nd)
Orlando Brown Jr. (30th)
Mark Andrews (39th)
Zach Sieler* (58th)
Darious Williams* (65th)
Hayden Hurst (77th)
Bradley Bozeman (92nd)
Bills
Josh Allen (1st)
Tremaine Edmunds (22nd)
Wyatt Teller* (38th)
Taron Johnson (57th)
Harrison Phillips (74th)
Now, the usual caveats of not harnessing the full value applies here, as the asterisked players have played the most elsewhere. But this was a great swan song to an outstanding career for Ozzie Newsome, and put Brandon Beane on the map to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Texans come out very poorly in this rookie class. Part of this is aggravated by the draft capital they gave up the season before to get Mahomes and Watson. But even with what they had left, the Chiefs failed to find any talent within the top 100 here, and the Texans found only three players of estimated draftable value.
But the Bengals don’t have the quarterback trade excuse to come out exceptionally bad here, led by the whiff of Billy Price in the actual 1sr round. This was also a bad job by the division rival Steelers, whiffing on both Terrell Edmunds and James Washington with their first two picks, and Chukwuma Okorafor the only player they landed within the top 100.
Kyler Murray was the consensus 1st overall pick as this rookie class was arriving, and nothing has stopped those results from continuing to bear out. But setting Daniel Jones aside, who ended up getting an ambitious extension from the Giants that did not pan out, it’s clear that this was the rookie class to find an edge rusher, interior defensive linemen, or wide receiver, as they dominate the 3rd through 16th overall spots here, and have plenty of other appearances in subsequent top 32 spots.
Speaking of edge rusher, it’s mind boggling how the Raiders saved themselves from a major disaster here. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock were immediately criticized for massively reaching on Clelin Ferrell with the actual 4th overall pick, and that criticism was quickly justified…but they somehow staved the damage by finding Maxx Crosby in the actual 4th round. Add onto this Hunter Renfrow (26th), Josh Jacobs (36th), Andre James (55th), and Foster Moreau (96th), and the Raiders did surprisingly well despite whiffing on another actual 1st round pick in Johnatham Abram, with actual 2nd rounder Trayvon Mullen also not panning out.
Beane also continued to build a fierce beast in Buffalo with four players within the top 100: Ed Oliver (23rd), Dawson Knox (30th), Devin Singletary (79th), and Tyrel Dodson (90th). This was also a strong showing for the Saints, getting six such players: Carl Granderson (32nd), Erik McCoy (37th), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jr. (52nd), Kaden Elliss (60th), Shy Tuttle (68th), and Deonte Harty (87th).
On the other end, the Panthers come out worst here, landing Brian Burns (who they later traded away), and only four other players of estimated draftable value. The Texans come out nearly as bad, with Tytus Howard being their only notable talent they actually kept. And the downfall of the Bengals continued to be evident here, with only Jonah Williams (28th) and Germaine Pratt (66th) coming in the top 100 here.
An odd divergence here comes from the Chiefs, who found only average total value, but were resourceful with the limited draft capital they had due to trading their first rounder for Frank Clark, landing some recognizable names like Juan Thornhill (62nd), Nick Allegretti (81st), Khalen Saunders (94th), and Mecole Hardman (100th).
But the oddest of all here is the Patriots coming out with the second highest total value, despite the accurate reputation that Bill Belichick drafted very poorly here. The key here is that he found 14 players with estimated draftable talent, but if you look at those players, there are no stars and few above average starters here. This illustrates just how far the depth chart a player within the top 250 or so can fall down within.
This was seen as a strong rookie class for quarterbacks from the beginning, and the conventional wisdom has played out even stronger than anticipated, with quarterbacks taking the top five spots with no serious caveats at play. That’s then followed by the next four spots taken by wide receivers, another strong position to target in this rookie class.
But it’s the Ravens, already having Lamar Jackson at quarterback, that again come out as the head of this class, landing five players within the top 80: Nnamdi Madubuike (11th), Patrick Queen (36th), Geno Stone (62nd), Broderick Washington (72nd), and Malik Harrison (77th). They also identified a sixth in Ben Bredeson (60th) that ended up having success elsewhere. The Saints also show strong here, although their top player, Zach Baun (27th) ended up finding the majority of his success in Philadelphia. Still, they also landed Cesar Ruiz (45th), Juwan Johnson (46th), Adam Trautman (92nd), and Malcolm Roach (96th).
Meanwhile, the luck that the Raiders had in 2019 decidely ran out in 2020 with a truly disastrous effort. This was aggravated by considerably mismangement of their two 1st round picks in Henry Ruggs, convicted of vehicular homicide, and Damon Arnette, commiting a wide array of violent crime. Neither made it out of their second seasons. The Raiders ended up only getting four players of estimated draftable value, none within the top 60.
This was also a rough draft for the Texans, getting only three players of estimated draftable value, and the Cardinals, with only five such players, and none within the top 75. And the Jets’ struggles continue with having the second worst relative value to the Raiders here, not getting the most out of actual 1st round pick Mekhi Becton (47th), and whiffing on players like Denzel Mims and Jabari Zuniga. This was despite finding Bryce Huff (25th) as a UDFA.
Caution has to be exuded with this rookie class, as several top players have yet to sign a contract other than their rookie contract. But it’s fun to look at some early trends here.
This was believed to be another strong class for quarterbacks, but only consensus 1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence led up to his billing, as Justin Fields (20th) is the only other quarterback to break the estimated 1st round for now, and he’ll be pushed down by more upcoming extensions unless he takes the next step forward with the Jets.
Among total value, the Lions are set to be the top of the class here, with three players in the top ten in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Alim McNeill, and four others within the top 100. The Eagles also set the stage for their Super Bowl winning team with three in the top 14 in Milton Williams, Devonta Smith, and Landon Dickerson.
In relative value, it’s the Chiefs that come out on top: despite having little draft capital due to trading their first round pick for Orlando Brown Jr., they still got four top 100 players in Trey Smith (currently 13th, likely to go higher once he is extended), Creed Humphrey (24th), Nick Bolton (33rd), and Noah Gray (71st). The Rams are right behind them; also without a 1st round pick due to trading for Matt Stafford, they also got four top 100 players: Alaric Jackson (21st), Tutu Atwell (47th), Ernest Jones (50th), and Bobby Brown III (62nd).
On the poor end, the Chargers are currently a false positive due to Rashawn Slater yet to have gotten a new contract, and Asante Samuel Jr. is still a free agent. But little is going to save the Giants, given the steady flameout of Kadarius Toney’s career, and very little else. It was also hard for the Seahawks to ever do well in total value with only three draft picks, but they weren’t even able to fortify that with undrafted talent, with Jon Rhattigan and Jake Curhan currently the only one of their UDFAs from this class coming out with estimated draftable talent.
New OTC Page: Rookie Classes By APY
Last month, Ben Baldwin had a fun tweet I found quite intriguing, reranking the 2020 NFL Draft by size of players’ second contracts by APY:
What if we blindly re-ranked the 2020 draft using APY of 2nd contract?
— 12 of the first 12 players are QB, WR, OT, or interior DL –Sometimes the obvious No. 1 pick really was that obvious pic.twitter.com/twKH1oc1il
Given that the source for this data is right here at OTC, it was evident to me that this exercise could be done for any draft. I also decided to use a different twist on this–instead of ranking by second contract, I looked at ranking to the highest APY each player has ever signed for.
The methodology is fairly simple: obtain each player’s maximum APY in his career, then rank all the players on such, and give an estimation of which round, if any, they would have been drafted in based solely on this APY relative to the total number of draft picks that season (~256). Obviously, maximum APY is not going to be a precise overlap on the overall player performance–some positions, particularly quarterback, get paid higher even as backups, and plenty of times a team has overestimated how much a player is worth when they sign such players in free agency. But there is enough correlation that I found this exercise to be useful.
Positional Rankings, 2011 to 2020
The columns on the left tally up the total number of players at each position in each estimated round, while the columns on the right express a percentage of such total players.
Quarterback is very feast or famine–as is well known, the pay between starter level and backup level is vast, resulting in very few contracts ranked in the 2nd or 3rd round. However, even backups get sizeable contracts that end up in that 4th to 6th round range, roughly within a rank of 100th to 200th.
The ends of both lines–tackle and edge rusher–are very first round heavy, with pluralities between one fourth and one fifth falling within the top 32 ranked players. This is more confirmation that along with quarterback, these positions should be drafted highly
Wide receiver shows a bit of a U curve, with high 1st round rankings descending to a trough right in the middle, at the 4th round, before ascending again to frequent numbers in the late rounds. This likely indicates the difference between #1 and #2 WRs, versus slot receivers and backups.
Interior defensive line and cornerback are distributed fairly evenly throughout the rankings, showing value all throughout each round of such a hypothetical draft.
Guard salaries lag behind the above a bit, with most falling in the 2nd to 3rd round range–however, the trend of increased salaries at the position could see this change in the future.
Most remaining positions on offense and defense show low quantities in the early rankings, and increasing amounts later on, again suggesting that these are not priority positions to pursue.
Fullback and the special teams positions of course round out the bottom, but even viable starters there tend to cluster in the rankings around the 3rd round (kicker), 4th round (punter), or 5th round (long snapper and fullback). This does not suggest that these positions should be drafted then, or anywhere. But it does demonstrate that players that stick here are still able to earn APYs higher than fringe players, including some draft picks, that end up having shorter careers, not even becoming vested veterans.
Total value, expressing how much absolute talent teams were able to find in the rookie class.
Relative value, expressing how well teams used their draft capital to find talent in the rookie class.
Note that each player is assigned by the team he was either drafted by, or signed as an undrafted free agent. This does not mean that the team derived the entire value of the player’s career, only that it was responsible for first identifying the player as one desired to add onto the team as a rookie.
Here’s a tabulation on how each team ranked in the past ten rookie classes, and the total ranking for each team on the left, expressed as the sum of each ten rankings. Because these are rankings, lower is better.
Total Value
Rk
Team
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1
Ravens
3
19
4
12
2
1
5
1
21
1
2
Cowboys
6
9
22
11
7
2
6
4
15
6
3
49ers
1
28
1
26
8
27
4
5
4
8
4
Patriots
5
18
15
14
5
9
17
16
2
14
5
Seahawks
2
1
25
13
4
12
24
14
12
16
6
Jaguars
24
20
16
1
13
4
21
17
6
5
7
Eagles
18
8
2
19
20
14
18
6
11
12
8
Rams
20
3
13
8
10
19
8
9
27
15
9
Dolphins
15
10
20
7
12
17
26
8
18
3
10
Bills
7
17
7
23
31
31
12
3
3
7
11
Broncos
4
7
28
10
25
5
25
12
16
13
12
Packers
19
11
3
6
26
8
13
23
20
19
13
Vikings
21
6
19
20
1
25
20
22
14
2
14
Chiefs
17
16
12
5
3
18
30
30
17
11
15
Browns
11
4
32
4
23
20
11
11
26
18
16
Bengals
26
2
18
16
14
10
7
31
29
9
17
Texans
12
5
14
3
19
11
9
32
30
32
18
Raiders
10
21
8
2
29
22
29
19
1
31
19
Saints
25
27
9
31
30
16
1
27
5
4
20
Colts
31
12
31
29
27
15
2
2
24
10
21
Chargers
8
25
26
30
11
21
3
10
28
27
22
Bucs
29
13
21
28
6
29
27
7
8
23
23
Lions
32
30
10
18
21
13
10
25
9
24
24
Bears
13
31
24
9
9
3
23
24
31
26
25
Commanders
9
14
27
15
16
30
16
26
19
21
26
Steelers
16
15
5
24
18
26
14
28
23
29
27
Cardinals
23
22
6
22
17
32
28
15
13
30
28
Falcons
22
32
11
27
24
6
22
18
22
28
29
Giants
27
29
30
17
22
23
32
13
7
17
30
Titans
28
24
29
25
28
7
19
29
10
22
31
Panthers
30
23
23
21
15
28
15
20
32
20
32
Jets
14
26
17
32
32
24
31
21
25
25
Relative Value
Rk
Team
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1
Cowboys
4
2
25
6
3
7
5
4
9
5
2
Ravens
3
21
5
23
5
5
9
2
25
2
3
Patriots
12
16
8
16
10
9
4
13
6
24
4
Eagles
28
7
1
17
14
4
21
1
7
20
5
Saints
19
10
2
27
32
12
3
20
1
1
6
49ers
1
26
6
31
17
31
10
5
8
3
7
Jaguars
15
14
20
2
16
3
20
9
10
29
8
Rams
17
8
18
21
15
10
6
7
22
14
9
Bills
13
27
15
20
21
29
8
3
3
4
10
Bears
5
29
13
12
9
13
17
25
12
9
11
Dolphins
7
15
29
9
11
15
18
10
4
28
12
Packers
21
9
4
10
25
8
13
28
23
11
13
Seahawks
2
1
27
14
2
18
32
14
27
17
14
Broncos
9
4
24
4
22
2
26
23
16
26
15
Chiefs
26
20
16
3
4
26
25
26
5
6
16
Texans
14
3
19
5
13
11
7
31
30
27
17
Chargers
11
24
22
24
6
25
2
8
21
18
18
Falcons
8
30
3
30
24
1
14
11
17
23
19
Vikings
22
11
23
28
1
19
22
18
19
8
20
Raiders
18
5
12
1
28
22
27
24
2
32
21
Steelers
10
13
7
25
18
23
12
29
24
15
22
Colts
23
19
31
8
26
14
1
15
28
13
23
Bucs
27
12
10
26
7
30
24
21
14
10
24
Panthers
30
23
11
13
8
20
15
19
31
21
25
Bengals
29
6
28
11
23
6
16
32
32
12
26
Lions
32
32
9
22
20
17
11
22
13
30
27
Cardinals
25
17
14
29
12
27
29
6
29
25
28
Titans
31
25
32
19
30
24
19
17
11
7
29
Commanders
20
18
17
15
27
28
23
27
26
16
30
Jets
6
22
21
32
29
16
31
12
18
31
31
Giants
24
28
26
18
19
21
30
16
20
19
32
Browns
16
31
30
7
31
32
28
30
15
22
It should be no surprise to see the Ravens and Cowboys as the far and away leaders here, as they have excelled in identifying large quantities of rookie talent for a very long time. On the other end, it’s pretty grim in the Meadowlands, as the Jets and Giants both fall among the four worst teams in both total and relative value.
Among teams with high variance between the two rankings, the Saints, Bears, and Falcons were all much better in relative value than total value, indicating that they made the most out of the draft picks they had, but may not have fortified as well with a UDFA signings or a high number of draft picks. On the opposite end, the Browns really stand out as a team that was average in identifying total talent throughout the rookie class, but was absolutely dreadful in using its draft picks to get it, which should not be surprising given many notorious draft pick busts that they made.
Number Of Estimated Draft Worthy Players, By Team And Round, 2011-2020
Finally, let’s take a look at how many players fall into each estimated round by team over these ten rookie classes:
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
Total
Ravens
16
17
17
16
13
15
11
105
49ers
10
11
14
20
12
19
11
97
Seahawks
8
14
21
12
12
9
18
94
Packers
13
9
10
10
14
23
13
92
Jaguars
9
15
9
16
16
10
17
92
Cowboys
12
18
11
16
11
11
11
90
Patriots
12
8
16
15
16
11
10
88
Rams
10
11
14
12
12
19
10
88
Vikings
11
8
18
13
9
18
10
87
Dolphins
10
14
7
11
17
15
13
87
Broncos
11
11
10
16
11
14
13
86
Bengals
9
10
14
10
12
17
14
86
Eagles
10
12
14
9
17
11
13
86
Raiders
6
10
14
17
14
16
9
86
Texans
12
7
7
10
15
19
11
81
Browns
7
12
11
14
9
18
10
81
Chiefs
11
9
10
14
8
17
11
80
Colts
7
12
15
12
6
15
13
80
Bills
12
11
13
10
13
11
9
79
Saints
13
11
9
9
10
11
11
74
Chargers
7
11
10
19
5
10
12
74
Bears
9
9
9
9
14
11
13
74
Buccaneers
12
8
8
7
16
15
8
74
Cardinals
10
6
12
10
7
14
12
71
Giants
9
10
7
5
15
10
15
71
Lions
10
6
10
9
13
14
8
70
Steelers
9
10
6
12
15
7
10
69
Commanders
9
9
7
13
11
10
10
69
Titans
7
14
8
6
8
13
12
68
Falcons
8
9
9
13
9
6
13
67
Panthers
13
9
4
6
7
17
10
66
Jets
9
9
6
9
5
11
13
62
Once again, the Ravens are the clear leaders of the class here, helped immensely by their expert college scouting, and getting more darts to throw via the compensatory pick system. And once again, the Jets don’t surprise by coming in dead last, perhaps one of several indications as to why they have not made the playoffs since the beginning of this time span.
The Ravens also have the clear lead in the number of estimated 1st round rankings (between 1st to 32nd) with 16. On the other end, despite coming in slightly above average with total players within the top 256 or so in maximum APY, the Raiders had the fewest estimated 1st rounders with only 6–especially indicting given multiple trades that got them more actual 1st round picks than typical.
* * * *
In an upcoming article, I’ll take a look at each of the ten rookie classes from 2011 to 2020 individually, and point out some notable results that came from each one.
Evaluating Contracts Cut In 2025
As the NFL undergoes a transition in priority from veteran free agency to the incoming rookie class, this is a good time to take a look at what veteran contracts were terminated in preparation for and during the beginning of free agency–and see what trends can be identified.
The list
Here are all the players that saw a negative contract fate that resulted in salary due in 2025 that was shed by their former teams. All players saw their contracts terminated unless they are marked with an asterisk, which indicates the player agreeing to a pay cut–the amount of which is expressed in the Cash Saved column–or with a hashtag, indicating the player retired. The number on the left column represents the player’s rank on OTC’s 2025 Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates List.
#
Player
Former Team
Pos.
2025 Cash Due
56
Aaron Rodgers
Jets
QB
$37,500,000
87
Davante Adams
Jets
WR
$36,250,000
15
Joey Bosa
Chargers
EDGE
$25,360,000
Javon Hargrave
49ers
IDL
$20,750,000
Cooper Kupp
Rams
WR
$20,000,000
24
James Bradberry
Eagles
CB
$18,000,000
Von Miller
Bills
EDGE
$17,500,000
81
Harold Landry
Titans
EDGE
$17,500,000
53
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
WR
$17,000,000
26
Jonathan Allen
Commanders
IDL
$17,000,000
51
Dre’Mont Jones
Seahawks
IDL
$16,510,000
Bradley Chubb*
Dolphins
EDGE
$16,300,000
90
Grady Jarrett
Falcons
IDL
$16,250,000
58
Darius Slay
Eagles
CB
$16,000,000
45
Evan Engram
Jaguars
TE
$15,750,000
Dalvin Tomlinson
Browns
IDL
$14,500,000
Preston Smith
Steelers
EDGE
$13,400,000
32
Marcus Williams
Ravens
S
$12,000,000
Chidobe Awuzie
Titans
CB
$12,000,000
71
Za’Darius Smith
Lions
EDGE
$11,000,000
Shaq Mason
Texans
IOL
$10,550,000
20
Sheldon Rankins
Bengals
IDL
$10,500,000
91
Maliek Collins
49ers
IDL
$10,000,000
12
Sam Hubbard#
Bengals
EDGE
$9,600,000
2
Gardner Minshew
Raiders
QB
$9,340,000
Braden Smith*
Colts
T
$8,750,000
44
Leonard Floyd
49ers
EDGE
$8,450,000
94
Alex Cappa
Bengals
IOL
$8,000,000
Andre James
Raiders
IOL
$7,120,000
42
Kendall Fuller
Dolphins
CB
$7,000,000
33
Juan Thornhill
Browns
S
$7,000,000
28
Larry Ogunjobi
Steelers
IDL
$7,000,000
14
Miles Sanders
Panthers
RB
$6,700,000
Roy Robertson-Harris
Seahawks
IDL
$6,600,000
19
Raekwon Davis
Colts
IDL
$6,490,000
17
Gerald Everett
Bears
TE
$5,500,000
31
Ja’Whaun Bentley
Patriots
LB
$5,500,000
Rayshawn Jenkins
Seahawks
S
$5,400,000
85
DeMarcus Walker
Bears
EDGE
$5,250,000
62
Garrett Bradbury
Vikings
IOL
$5,250,000
David Andrews
Patriots
CB
$5,000,000
Jack Conklin
Browns
T
$5,000,000
80
Mitch Morse#
Jaguars
IOL
$4,650,000
79
Kyle Juszczyk
49ers
RB
$4,600,000
5
Josh Reynolds
Jaguars
WR
$4,500,000
27
Dane Jackson
Panthers
CB
$4,350,000
35
C.J. Mosley
Jets
LB
$4,000,000
72
George Fant
Seahawks
T
$3,800,000
Andrew Wylie*
Commanders
T
$3,750,000
Matt Milano*
Bills
LB
$3,600,000
25
Shy Tuttle*
Panthers
IDL
$3,500,000
Ronald Darby
Jaguars
CB
$3,500,000
Devin Duvernay
Jaguars
WR
$3,400,000
Durham Smythe
Dolphins
TE
$3,375,000
68
Tyrann Mathieu*
Saints
CB
$3,250,000
Jamaal Williams
Saints
RB
$3,150,000
Gus Edwards
Chargers
RB
$3,125,000
Raheem Mostert
Dolphins
RB
$3,065,000
Sione Takitaki
Patriots
LB
$2,860,000
Arthur Maulet
Ravens
CB
$2,250,000
Sam Martin
Bills
P
$1,885,000
*player accepted a pay cut to stay with the team #player has retired
This season, OTC’s Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates List identified 36 players that ended up on the list above. That is slightly down from the 38 identified in 2024. One improvement to the model that needs to be made for next season is that it did not find players who had previously taken pay cuts on a renegotiated contract. Otherwise, I think it would have been likely that Von Miller, Javon Hargrave, and Preston Smith would have made the Top 100 list.
However, among the 48 players that were due at least $3.75 million in 2025, 34 were on the Top 100 list. That makes up the grand majority of such players at 70.8%, and while that is down from 2024’s number of 76%, I still do believe that the model is doing well in identifying the broad swath of players who end up being cut or have their contract adjusted downward.
In the team column to the left, 25 teams shed $597.18 million in 2025 salary. The Broncos, Bucs, Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers were the seven teams that did not conduct any major veteran cuts. The Seahawks and Jaguars led the way in quantity with 5 players, while the Jets leading far and away in salary shed is almost entirely due to Aaron Rodgers (due $37.5 million) and Davante Adams (due $36.25 million).
By position, this season it was the defensive front that took the biggest hits, with salary shed among interior defensive linemen and edge rushers each seeing those numbers in the nine digits. Wide receiver and cornerback continue their trend of having a high amount of salary shed as well, coming in at 3rd and 4th. The high figure at quarterback this season is again due to Rodgers being cut.
Running back and linebacker were exceptionally low, possibly indicating that the market correction on those positions has stabilized. The same could be true of safety, which saw much less disruption than the devastation the position saw last season.
Comparing The APY Of Extensions To Other Contracts
Yesterday, news broke that Derek Stingley Jr. had agreed to an extension with the Houston Texans, with multiple reports stating it was for three years and $90 million, thus $30 million APY. It was further clarified that the extension is appended not only to Stingley’s $5.43 million in cash that he was due on his rookie contract in 2025, but also a $17.595 million fifth year option that was available to be exercised in 2026.
This has led to some criticism that expressing this agreement as a $30M APY contract is misleading. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk instead argues that the remaining seasons on his rookie contract should be included, which would thus be expressed as $113 million over five seasons, or $22.6 million APY.
This got me curious into taking a look as to how the APYs of extensions compare to the APYs of typical contracts, where the starting season is the same as when it was signed, and to see what differences there were. This was easy to do with how we structure our contracts at OTC, where we express extensions in new money value (so for Stingley, $90 million over three seasons) and then denote the season that the extension actually starts (again with Stingley, his contract is marked as signed in 2025, but starting in 2027).
I took a look at the highest APYs by season and position from 2013 to 2025. This data is lengthy, so I will instead share it at this link to a Google Sheets document, which readers are free to look at.
What was found is that there is not that much variation between each position over each season. Obviously there will be outliers in either direction on occasion, but over this time period, the average amount of difference is only about $428,000, while the median difference is even smaller, at $85,417.
When broken down by average difference in APY by position, as shown below, the trends remain similar. The average of this averages is very similar, at about $450,000 and the median at about $152,000.
Position
Average APY Difference
IDL
$3,024,777
LG
$2,957,000
S
$1,376,558
RG
$1,164,605
CB
$797,227
C
$754,722
LB
$413,534
LS
$306,653
K
$188,739
EDGE
$115,489
LT
$48,244
TE
$33,354
P
($141,897)
FB
($197,750)
RT
($355,139)
QB
($420,518)
RB
($729,903)
WR
($1,237,624)
The bottom line as I see it is that teams and agents are collectively doing a good job of accurately projecting where APYs will go when they sign extensions. Any one team or player is of course capable of getting a good deal on any single contract, but overall there does not appear to be a major advantage either way to getting an extension done, as the market corrects for seeing the new data points. There has been worthwhile criticism to consider about how news of contract data is disseminated. However, I think it’s also worthwhile to draw a consistent line between expressing extensions in new money terms (as we do here at OTC), and using a different expression is likely just going to muddy the waters with confusion, while not changing core negotiation factors.
Evaluation of the 2025 Compensatory Picks Projection