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Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

The concept for the research was to use NFL salary data to retroactively grade every draft selection from 2011 through 2015 following the conclusion of their rookie contracts, and to use that data to better project the value of each future draft selection.

First, we found the average of the Top 5 APY (average per year) contracts at each position in each year. For example, the Top 5 QB APY's are $35 million, $34 million, $33.5 million, $33.5 million, $32 million. The average of these 5 APY's is $33.6 million. An APY of $16.8 million would thus be 50% of Top 5 APY. We then converted every new contract in each year into a percent of the Top 5 APY average at the respective position.

In order to get a more accurate representation of the expected performance of a particular draft pick and increase the sample size, we smoothed the data by averaging out the post rookie-contract APY amounts for a few picks before and after each draft pick. The grouping of a few draft picks within a small range removed a lot of the variance that occurs in large part due to “busts” and generated more realistic projections, as the range more accurately reflects the quality of talent available to a drafting team. The ranges start very small (e.g. examining picks No. 1 + No. 2 for the No. 1 slot) and expand in the later rounds of the draft

PickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValue
130003312286588597682129537161425193333225255
226493412136687798676130533162422194330226253
324433511986786999671131529163419195328227251
4229736118468862100666132526164416196325228249
5218437117069854101661133522165412197323229246
6209238115770847102656134518166409198320230244
7201439114371840103651135514167406199318231242
8194640113172833104646136510168403200315232240
9188741111873826105642137507169400201312233238
10183342110674819106637138503170397202310234235
11178543109475812107632139499171394203307235233
12174144108276805108627140496172391204305236231
13170045107177799109623141492173388205302237229
14166346106078792110618142489174386206300238227
15162847104979786111613143485175383207298239225
16159548103880779112609144481176380208295240223
17156449102881773113604145478177377209293241220
18153550101882767114600146474178374210290242218
19150851100783761115595147471179371211288243216
2014825299884755116591148468180368212285244214
2114575398885749117587149464181366213283245212
2214345497986743118582150461182363214281246210
2314115596987737119578151457183360215278247208
2413895696088731120574152454184357216276248206
2513695795189725121570153451185354217274249204
2613495894290720122565154447186352218271250202
2713305993491714123561155444187349219269251200
2813116092592709124557156441188346220267252198
2912946191793703125553157438189344221264253196
3012766290994698126549158434190341222262254194
3112606390095692127545159431191338223260255192
3212446489296687128541160428192336224258256190