The purge of the contracts for veteran wide receivers continues in the NFL in the leadup to the 2025 league year, as the Jaguars are cutting Christian Kirk, per Adam Schefter.

Kirk signed a four year, $72 million contract with Jacksonville in 2022 that at first looked like a good deal for the regularly spending Jaguars, as he caught for over 1,100 yards and 8 TDs in his first season there. But injuries took their toll over 2023 and especially 2024, making his contract less tenable to keep on the books.

Kirk was due $16.5 million for 2025, what would have been the last season of his contract. By releasing him now, the Jaguars will free up $10.44 million cap dollars for 2025, even while accounting for $13.65 million in dead money. This includes cap dollar acceleration that came from the addition of void years beyond 2025 via a restructure of his 2023 salary.

By OTC’s Top 100 Possible Cut Candidates list, the Jaguars moving on from Kirk was not a surprise, as he came in at #6 on the list. And Kirk might not be the only veteran WR out the door, as right ahead of him on the list is Josh Reynolds, who was claimed off waivers from the Broncos last season after signing a two year, $9.5 million contract in Denver. With Brian Thomas Jr. now the clear #1 target in Jacksonville, it is a good opportunity for the Jaguars to get younger at the position.

The 2025 league year in the NFL officially starts on Wednesday, March 12. The two day negotiating period of free agency commences on Monday, March 10, and it is then when we would typically get first knowledge of the largest contracts to be signed. With those contracts signed come the assignment of some players as compensatory free agents (CFAs), and thus the generation of compensatory picks for the 2025 NFL Draft. Now that we know which players will be effectively taken out of free agency via tags (only two, the fewest ever), thus it’s time to take a look at what comp pick potential teams might be looking at.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills traded for Amari Cooper in what was mostly for a 3rd round pick. Any comp pick that Cooper generates would be capped at the 5th round due to having 10 accrued seasons, but it seems plausible that he could get the approximate $8 million APY needed to value his contract in the 5th round. Besides Cooper, Damar Hamlin and Rasul Douglas are a pair of defensive backs that should get comp pick worthy contracts, and Mack Hollins always seems to find a way to get one year contracts that barely qualify for the formula. But with only 11 pending UFAs, they might have to hold off from signing CFAs of their own, and the question will be if they instead want to take more aggressive free agency shots in their quest to finally get over that hump into the Super Bowl. Potential: Low

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s pending UFA count is very numerous at 26, and that include multiple players that played many snaps for the Dolphins last season. Jevon Holland leads that pack by avoiding the franchise tag, along with his fellow safety Jordan Poyer, two starting offensive linemen in Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg, and waiver wire claimee Tyrel Dodson. Add on to this a salary cap crunch the Dolphins find themselves in, and this could equate to many Dolphins becoming former Dolphins as CFAs. Potential: Very High

New England Patriots

The Patriots have only nine pending UFAs, and there could be a few CFA worthy contracts within: Jacoby Brissett, Deatrich Wise, Jonathan Jones, Daniel Ekuale. But with a league leading amount of money to spend, the priority likely should instead be to take advantage of free agency as appropriate while Drake Maye is on his rookie contract. Potential: Very Low

New York Jets

Major change is in the air in Florham Park as the era of Joe Douglas, Robert Saleh, and Aaron Rodgers is decisively over, and beginning is the era of Darren Mougey, Aaron Glenn, and a TBD QB. This turnover could be assisted by not bringing back most of their 22 pending UFAs. Among them include DJ Reed, Haason Reddick, and Jamein Sherwood, players that could become decently valued CFAs. The question will be whether Mougey and Glenn want to sign plenty of CFAs of their own to put their mold on the roster quickly. Potential: Moderate

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens should remain diligent in prioritizing getting comp picks, even if their slate is not as prominent as usual. Their diligence was proven again when they claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers during the playoffs, a player that they had traded for during the regular season. Brandon Stephens and Patrick Mekari are two other high snap players with expiring contracts to watch. Never count out the Ravens even if they have to hold back a bit in unrestricted free agency. Potential: Moderate

Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins was tagged again, but with 17 other pending UFAs, the Bengals still have a handful of possible CFAs out there, including Mike Hilton, Joseph Ossai, Vonn Bell, Cody Ford, BJ Hill, and Akeem Davis-Gaither. Cinicinnati may also be prioritizing their upcoming money to spend to make sure that Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase stay with Joe Burrow in the long haul, which could limit their free agency spending. Potential: Moderate

Cleveland Browns

The Browns will have to continue to navigate tight finances as they continue to suffer through the worst contract in NFL history that Deshaun Watson still holds, and that gets tighter if they end up incurring more dead money on their current salary cap by acquiescing to the trade demand of Myles Garrett. That might provide an avenue for the likes of Jedrick Wills or Jameis Winston or Elijah Moore to generate a comp pick or two if they hold off on signing other players due to the bind they’re in. Potential: Moderate

Pittsburgh Steelers

All eyes will be on where Russell Wilson and Justin Fields go. Almost any standard backup QB contract will be comp pick eligible, and even a contract that falls in the massive gap between starter and backup pay, such as a minimum of $25 million APY, should be enough to generate a 3rd round comp pick. Beyond the quarterbacks, starting left tackle Dan Moore Jr., running back Najee Harris, receivers Van Jefferson and Mike Williams, and linebacker Elandon Roberts, are also on the list. There’s plenty to work with here for the Steelers if they want to prioritize comp picks for 2026. Potential: High

Houston Texans

The Texans continue to churn through signing many low level veterans to one year contracts, most of who contribute, but few of who end up being big contributors. Among their UFAs this season, only Eric Murray and Mario Edwards Jr. logged more than 40% of the snaps. Should this churn continue, perhaps the Texans find themselves with a low comp pick in the end, but it’s nothing to rely upon. Potential: Low

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a pair of starting offensive linemen in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries hitting free agency, along with a trio of defensive contributors in Julian Blackmon, Dayo Odeyingbo, and EJ Speed. That can form the base of a comp pick return to work with if the Colts are limited in spending on external CFAs, even if the comp picks returned aren’t of the highest value. Potential: Moderate

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have only 10 pending UFAs, and other than Andre Cisco and Brandon Scherff, or perhaps Mac Jones on a backup contract, there is not much else of note here. The Jaguars are renowned for spending much and often in free agency, and it shouldn’t take much of such spending for them to stay off the comp pick list. Potential: Very Low

Tennessee Titans

The Titans don’t have many UFAs of note (Dillon Radunz? Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?), and with a new GM with a roster that still needs plenty of work, this seems like a good time as any for the Titans to pounce and to use unrestricted free agency to fill out the depth chart. Potential: Low

Denver Broncos

The Broncos were very preemptive in getting their work done for 2025 and beyond in recent months. This of course includes extending Patrick Surtain, Quinn Meinerz, Jonathon Cooper, and Garett Bolles. But it also includes getting a draft pick now for Baron Browning departure by trading him to the Cardinals for a 6th round, instead of having to play the comp pick game to get it. Free agents like DJ Jones, Javonte Williams, and Cody Barton could get CFA worthy deals, but Denver may instead decide to pounce on some CFAs of their own to make use of Bo Nix’s rookie contract. Potential: Very Low

Kansas City Chiefs

Even with Trey Smith receiving the franchise tag, Kansas City will have plenty of other CFA worthy players to consider. Nick Bolton, Justin Reid, and Tershawn Wharton are among the leading defensive players hitting the market. The Chiefs have also collected many veteran wide receivers with expiring contracts: Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Chiefs may need to make some key signings at places like offensive tackle to remain near the top, but even then that should leave some comp picks left over. Potential: High

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders pose a bit of a fascinating case for watching where their participation in free agency will go. On the one hand, they have a numerous amount of notable players hitting unrestricted free agency–especially on defense: Malcolm Koonce, Tre’von Moehrig, Nate Hobbs, Robert Spillane, Divine Deablo. But on the other hand, this is a team that just started over again at GM and head coach, does not have an obvious answer at quarterback, and that same number of notable UFAs is creating one of the least deep charts in the league. Add in plenty of money to spend and the Raiders’ comp pick ledger might end up lengthy on both sides, which is no guarantee that picks will result from it. Potential: Low

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a very lengthy list of pending UFAs at 26, and plenty of them should be CFA worthy too. This includes Khalil Mack (albeit capped at a 5th rounder), Kristian Fulton, Bradley Bozeman, JK Dobbins, Poona Ford, Josh Palmer, and Asante Samuel Jr. Even if the Chargers re-sign a few of them, or even if they sign CFAs of their own, they should be in good shape to expand their draft capital for 2026. Potential: High

Dallas Cowboys

With Osa Odighizuwa now extended, on the one hand there aren’t many notable UFAs that could also become notable CFAs. Jourdan Lewis? Eric Kendricks? Rico Dowdle? Or perhaps Brandin Cooks, in his very first journey into free agency at age 31 after being traded four times? But on the other hand, the Cowboys always prioritize extending their own, and letting those they don’t extend walk. They also have a megacontract for Micah Parsons on the horizon. Never count the Cowboys out for comp picks, but it may not be as abundant as in most seasons. Potential: Low

New York Giants

The Giants might be able to see a comp pick materialize by letting someone like Darius Slayton or Jason Pinnock leave. Having 21 total pending UFAs also helps them prioritize their higher CFAs that do leave. But with a roster that still has plenty of work to do in order to be competitive, so too may there need to be plenty of work to do in unrestricted free agency. Potential: Low

Philadelphia Eagles

The Super Bowl champions have a trio of defenders in Milton Williams, Zack Baun, and Josh Sweat that’ll have a strong market if they aren’t retained. Mekhi Becton could also see a good contract after the Eagles resurrected his career by moving him inside. The Eagles also structure their contracts in a manner in which they are very confident in who they have on the roster for the long haul. They should be well suited for high quality comp picks if they so choose. Potential: Very High

Washington Commanders

The Commanders will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in free agency this season. On the one hand, they have an excellent quarterback with several rookie contract seasons left to go, along with one of the highest number of snaps hitting free agency, and plenty of money to spend. That would indicate a moment to not prioritize come picks. But on the other hand, they do have a league leading 28 pending UFAs. Even if the quality of those players aren’t top tier, the sheer quantity of such players could see them ending up with a few comp picks, even if they are late ones. Potential: Moderate

Chicago Bears

The Bears have 21 pending UFAs, but none of them very notable. This includes Keenan Allen, who at 12 accrued seasons will have any comp pick attached to his contract capped at the 5th round. This is also another team that has a rookie quarterback contract to work with. Chicago always seems to find a way to cut it close with barely missing out on comp picks–will they even come close to cutting it close when they might want to get the players for Ben Johnson and his offense? Potential: Very Low

Detroit Lions

The Lions have 23 pending UFAs, so that’s the base for at least a possibly high quantity of CFAs to work with. They also have one of the deepest rosters in the league, so they might not need to retain many of them. On the other hand, they might make some targeted strikes in free agency to get over the hump as one of the leading Super Bowl contenders. Even if there’s no obvious high level CFA caliber players here, they should have the flexibility to work free agency if they want. Potential: Moderate

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have only 9 pending UFAs, shrunken very recently by the extensions of Isaiah McDuffie and Brandon McManus. But there is still Eric Stokes, Eric Wilson, Tedarrell Slaton, Josh Myers, and AJ Dillon to consider. Because the Packers have a long history of prioritizing comp picks, they can never be ruled out in getting some, even if the quantity of candidates they have to work with is low. Potential: Moderate

Minnesota Vikings

By not tagging Sam Darnold, the Vikings are poised to once again get the top 3rd round comp pick should they decide to let him walk and roll with JJ McCarthy instead. Cam Bynum, Byron Murphy, Cam Robinson, and Aaron Jones also provide much more beyond Darnold. Then add onto that the shrewd move of signing Daniel Jones to the practice squad, and activating him during the playoffs just in time for him to be eligible to become a CFA. The Vikings do have a high number of snaps from 2024 entering free agency, and like last season they may add CFAs of their own. But the presence of Darnold hitting the market alone makes them a big player for comp picks in 2026. Potential: Very High

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons ahave 22 pending UFAs to provide a base to work with. Within that, Drew Dalman leads the list of players that could get a big deal elsewhere. Atlanta should be able to plot out a way where they can protect a high comp pick for Dalman’s departure, while still seeing enough other CFAs leave to sign a limited number of CFAs of their own. Potential: Moderate

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have a couple high snap defensive backs hitting free agency in Xavier Woods and Mike Jackson to keep an eye on, but not much more beyond that. Carolina is likely in a position to continue to try to fill more holes on their roster right away while they still have Bryce Young on his rookie contract. Potential: Low

New Orleans Saints

It’s the same story for the Saints again: push to the brink on cap dollar allocation. This could result in another situation where the both the number of CFAs that leave and sign are low, and that can sometimes result in a comp pick since the difference is close. Paulson Adebo, Juwan Johnson, Will Harris, and Chase Young are some players to look for if the Saints do end up falling into a comp pick or two. Potential: Moderate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are another team that has a high number of pending UFAs at 22, and one of them in Chris Godwin that’s set to get a sizeable contract somewhere. If the Bucs don’t retain him, they should be in good shape to preserve a comp pick for his departure, even if there are other CFAs from other teams they’d like to sign. Potential: Moderate

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have no real notable UFAs out there, and a solid base of draft picks in the past couple of seasons should be able to set a base for some action in free agency to give help to Kyler Murray and continue to improve upon a defense that still needs improvement. Potential: Very Low

Los Angeles Rams

With Alaric Jackson off the board due to getting extended, the next players to watch for potential Rams comp picks would be Michael Hoecht, Christian Rozeboom, Bobby Brown III, and Neville Gallimore. Even Jimmy Garoppolo could still fetch a comp pick worthy deal if he’s not retained. The Rams are the most skilled at finding gems in the mid to late rounds of the draft, and having comp picks to bolster that skill has been a big contributor to their success. Potential: Moderate

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a decent amount of CFA caliber UFAs with some questions to them. Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga have established talent but also injury concerns. Charvarius Ward will be an older corner looking for a third contract. Aaron Banks would be looking to find a fit outside the Shanahan scheme. There’s enough for San Francisco to work with here, particularly if they want to save their spending for extending Brock Purdy. Potential: Moderate

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has only 10 pending UFAs, and only one of them is of note: Ernest Jones, who they traded a 4th round pick to get on the final season of his contract. If Jones is not extended, it would likely take a complete abstention from compensatory free agency in order to recoup the draft capital that they gave up to get him for 2024, and to get the exclusive negotiating window that they have for a few more days. Potential: Very Low

UPDATE, 2/12/2025: Geno Stone’s APY was set erroneously too high in the database when this article was originally published. This has been fixed, and the projection now places his contract as netting the Ravens a 6th rounder, and not a 5th–although that is still on the bubble of the cutoff.

This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2025 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 31 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, exactly 32 picks must be awarded under typical circumstances. To get to this number, the formula will award additional supplementary comp picks in the order of what would be the 8th round. This draft, the Titans, Browns, and Giants finished tied for the worst win-loss records in the league. The order of their picks in each round alternates; by the time the rotation makes it to the 8th round, Cleveland would be first in order, thus it is projected to get the Mr. Irrelevant pick. If additional supplemental comp picks are needed, the next one would be awarded to the Giants, and then the Titans.

In recent seasons, the NFL Management Council has released the list of compensatory picks the week before the start of the new league year, which this season is March 12. Although it could hypothetically be released at any time after the Super Bowl, it is most likely to be released sometime between March 3 and 7.

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”. This draft, I will continue to use the average of the estimated number of leaguewide players in previous sets of compensatory picks, dating back to 2014. This average comes out to 1,960, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

• Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #98
• Xavier McKinney (New York Giants): #100
• Christian Wilkins (Miami): #113

4th/5th

• Sam Darnold (San Francisco): #192
• Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196
• Gabe Davis (Green Bay): #205

5th/6th

• Kenneth Murray (Los Angeles Chargers): #284
• Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #294
• Geno Stone (Baltimore): #301

6th/7th

None

7th/Qualifying

• Willie Gay (Kansas City): #674
• Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #686
• Mike Edwards (Kansas City): #703

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

Most of the questions this draft center around standard guesswork as to where the cutoffs on which round are. One question that remains is if the NFL Management Council will continue to oddly view restructured contracts as new contracts. If it no longer does this, it could be good news for the Giants and Dolphins. Xavier McKinney had an outstanding season in Green Bay, with postseason honors boosting his contract very close to the 3rd round. Christian Wilkins, on the other hand, had a disappointing season in Las Vegas that was marred by injury, dropping his contract down to the 4th round. But if there’s a change, there’s a chance either or both could deliver a 3rd round comp pick instead.

Sam Darnold’s outstanding season has put his contract on the bubble of getting into the 4th round, after playing almost every snap in 2024. The only things that could have helped more is if he got any postseason honors, or he had incentives tied to his strong play. But if Darnold’s contract comes up just short, it’s a big drop for the 49ers, who will see that 4th for Darnold leaving for Minnesota instead turn to a 7th rounder for Clelin Ferrell going to DC.

The many permutations the Bills could have ended up with for their 2025 comp picks looks to land on two 5th rounders–with a possible 4th downgraded due to Gabe Davis missing most of 2024 with injury. Mack Hollins and Tim Settle look to have both clearly contributed to their teams enough to qualify as compensatory free agents. It’s unlikely that Mike Edwards will do the same, as he was cut by the Bills, and despite later returning to the Bucs and playing a decent amount of snaps for 5 games, but not enough to receive a snap count boost in the formula. But if Edwards were to qualify, that would cost the Bills one of their 5th rounders.

Edwards qualifying could help the Chiefs gain an additional 7th rounder. But the more likely bubble situation to watch for them and the Saints regards whether Willie Gay qualifies. Having just missed playing 25% of the snaps, his contract got no boost in that regard, drawing it very close to the qualifying cutoff. Should he not become a CFA, Kansas City would be completely shut of 2025 comp picks, and New Orleans would go from getting one 7th rounder to two.

After seeing reasonably good results from this exercise last season, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.

This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2024 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.

As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.

With that, this list is built from the players who:

• Are due a minimum of $3.75 million in cash for 2024.
• Have a negative contract fate greater than 50%.
• Are within the top 100 in players with the worst OTC valuation above median starter, which is defined in OTC’s explainer of the valuation diamond.

Breakdown by team

Here are the number of players each team has on this list:

• 6: 49ers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks
• 5: Bears, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Lions
• 4: Jaguars, Titans
• 3: Broncos, Bucs, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings
• 2: Bills, Commanders, Dolphins, Raiders, Rams, Ravens
• 1: Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Texans

While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2025. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.

Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2025 versus their 2025 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.

The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2025 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.

The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. Several of those teams (Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans) are in Super Bowl contention, while teams like the Cowboys and Dolphins were undone by injury. Regardless of how their seasons end, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2025.

Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.

The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.

The Jets and Seahawks break the X axis by each having over $90 million in such salary at play. For the Jets, who have fired their GM and head coach and are currently looking to find their replacements, assumptions are high that there will be major roster turnover on this team, with the former Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard leading the way of most of the cash due on this list.

The Seahawks face a much different situation: currently about $30 million over the salary cap, but also coming off a 10-7 season in which they just missed the playoffs. Players low on this list, certainly Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, seem very unlikely to be cut, and could instead be restructure candidates to defer cap dollar charges. Metcalf already has several void years on his contract to use for this purpose–Smith would need to agree to add the same. On the other hand, players such as Dre’Mont Jones or Noah Fant might not get as much of a benefit of the doubt. A very difficult decision may also need to come for Tyler Lockett, who is highly respected as the longest tenured Seahawk.

The Falcons will be another good team to watch, especially if they decide to move on from Kirk Cousins and take on a $27.5 million dead cash hit. Their restructure potential is high, thus that alone should not aggravate needed cuts, but the fate of the contracts for David Onyemata, Younghoe Koo, and long time Falcon Grady Jarrett should be monitored.

The Eagles and Browns, as is their practice, have already done their work preemptively to defer as many cap dollars as they can on their contracts. Thus, any cuts or renegotiations they make will be minimized in that regard. Philadelphia does not need to make any immediate changes to their contracts due to being in cap compliance, but that is not the case for the Browns, who will likely get there by restructuring Deshaun Watson’s salary once again after getting him to agree to add more void years for maximal deferral.

Finally, although the Saints, as usual, have plenty of work to do, their contracts are structured in a manner in which cutting most players would be impractical. They are likely to, and indeed may have to, continue to restructure contracts and run it back with a similar roster, as if they were more comparable to teams in the lower left quadrant.

Last week, the Giants made the decision to bench Daniel Jones for the rest of the season, with the reason clearly being that he had $23 million of his 2025 salary protected for injury only. This move was not well received by some of his teammates, and Jones ultimately requested to be released, which the Giants graciously granted to him.

This is a situation that did no good for anyone involved, and considering how more frequent these situations are becoming, it is making me look at the concept of guaranteeing salary for injury only with increased scrutiny. By doing so, it provides teams an incentive to do what the Giants did with Jones, and it makes me consider whether this is a contract mechanism that should be phased out.

When I published my annual compensatory picks update after the draft on Monday, I still expressed some doubt about how the NFL Management Council calculated the cutoff between the 3rd and 4th round for 2024, even after Bills GM Brandon Beane provided some useful hints in explaining why the his team and the 49ers did not get the 3rd rounders they (and I) expected.

Thankfully, that doubt is now gone. Per a source that OTC considers reliable, we were informed that the NFLMC calculates contracts that were restructured as entirely new contracts. These contracts are calculated as beginning on the season of the restructure, and include all cap dollars from that season onward–including cap dollars in void seasons. The nature of these calculations make the APY of these restructured contracts much larger than they are in actual cash payment.

To illustrate, let’s use the player that I believe Beane was referring to on the 49ers at the time, Arik Armstead. He originally signed a five year, $85 million extension, for a real APY of $17 million. That contract had a $17.5 million signing bonus prorated over all five seasons at $3.5 million each. However, the 49ers then did maximum restructures on Armstead’s 2022 and 2023 bases salaries, adding more void years in the process. A simple view of the contract before and after the restructures as of 2023 looked like this:

What the NFLMC did for compensatory formula purposes was to take the contract on the right, but only consider the cap numbers for all seasons during and after the restructure, including void years–but for contract length, it ignored void years. What was counted has been highlighted in green and marked with asterisks. After taking out some of the simplicity I have illustrated here, Armstead’s compensatory APY came out to be just a shade over $28 million. (I am guessing that Beane slightly misspoke when he said $26 million).

Once this adjustment was made to OTC’s compensatory formula, it’s amazing how it put everything in proper place, with a proper 3rd/4th round cutoff consisting of the top 5% of the league, around the top 94 players:

As we can see, the contracts of Mike McGlinchey (San Francisco) and Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo) fell just below the cutoff, as Beane said. We also see Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract above it, but the 49ers did not get a 3rd round comp pick for his departure because they also signed Javon Hargrave, also above the cutoff. This also explains the NFLMC’s mistake in not initially awarding the Bengals a 3rd round comp pick. As it admitted, it omitted Jessie Bates’s Pro Bowl honors, and subtracting those 20 points would have put his contract below the cutoff, and cancelled out by the 4th round signing of Orlando Brown, Jr. It also explains why the 3rd round comp pick for Cincinnati came above the same for Philadelphia, from the departure of Hargrave to the Bay Area.

Although we now have the answer, I do still agree with Beane’s assessment that the Bills and 49ers got a “raw deal” due to counting “numbers that are not really numbers”. Returning to the Armstead example, at no point was he actually getting paid $28 million per season. His maximum compensation was always going to be $85 million over five seasons, thus his APY should have always been judged to be $17 million. I would advise the NFLMC to not calculate restructured contracts in the manner that they did.

With this solved, this change has also been placed in the 2025 compensatory picks projection. Currently, it has not resulted in any changes in that projection from Monday. However, Dolphins fans and observers should show a little bit of caution for the projection of Robert Hunt’s contract, as it is just barely over the 3rd/4th round cutoff in the compensatory formula. But the program is currently using a snap count average over the past four seasons for Hunt that should end up higher if he plays almost all the snaps for the Panthers, as starting offensive linemen tend to do. And also, although at this point it will not matter, I am more convinced that Jonathan Greenard’s contract will likely be valued in the 4th round and not the 3rd– and if so, it would mean that his contract would have not cancelled out Danielle Hunter’s 3rd round valued contract had the Vikings had a net loss of compensatory free agents of greater than 2–instead of the 1 they have now, resulting in only one comp pick for Kirk Cousins going to Atlanta.

With the deadline for unrestricted free agent signings counting toward the compensatory formula having passed a week ago, it’s time to take a look as to where the list of projected 2025 compensatory picks stands as of now.