The 2025 league year in the NFL officially starts on Wednesday, March 11. The two day negotiating period of free agency commences on Monday, March 9, and it is then when we would typically get first knowledge of the largest contracts to be signed. With those contracts signed come the assignment of some players as compensatory free agents (CFAs), and thus the generation of compensatory picks for the 2025 NFL Draft. Now that we know which players will be effectively taken out of free agency via tags, thus it’s time to take a look at what comp pick potential teams might be looking at.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills don’t have any very notable pending UFAs this offseason, but do have multiple that could earn CFA worthy contracts. This includes longer term veterans like Connor McGovern, David Edwards, Tre’Davious White, Joey Bosa, Brandin Cooks, DaQuan Jones, Shaq Thompson, and Jordan Poyer. Younger players like AJ Epenesa or Damar Hamlin could garner flyer contracts too. With possible limited spending ability, this could also further the comp pick cause in Buffalo. (Note that Matt Milano is ineligible to become a CFA due to having his contract shortened via renegotiation.) Potential: Moderate

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have a very high quantity of pending UFAs at 28, but the quality is quite low. Whether or not any of these players can garner CFA worthy deals could be drowned out by a team with a new GM and head coach that could be likely to churn the roster that includes adding plenty of CFAs of their own. Potential: Low

New England Patriots

Like last season, the Patriots have a very low quanity of pending UFAs (6), and like last season there could be a few CFA worthy contracts within: K’Lavon Chaisson, Jaylinn Hawkins, Auston Hooper, Khyiris Tonga. But also like last season, they have abundant spending ability that they may again use to prioritize taking advantage of free agency as appropriate while Drake Maye is on his rookie contract. Potential: Very Low

New York Jets

The Jets have 23 pending UFAs, and there’s a few notable ones within there like Quincy Williams, Michael Clemons, Andre Cisco, Tony Adams, and John Simpson. But with the 4th highest current amount of cap dollars available, Darren Mougey may continue to want to shape the roster significantly to get it to a better place. Even while doing so last season, however, there was still room for lining up to earn comp picks for 2026, and the same could be true for 2027. Potential: Moderate

Baltimore Ravens

It’s business as usual for the Ravens in their top tier pursuit of comp picks. Tyler Linderbaum will lead the way if the Ravens do not extend him, as it was impractical to pick up his 5th year option due to the NFL’s continued antiquated insistence of grouping all offensive linemen together, even when tackles get paid much more than interior OL. And beyond Linderbaum, there is Dre’Mont Jones, Alohi Gilman, Isaiah Likely, Daniel Faalele, Kyle Van Noy, and Patrick Ricard. It would be a surprise if the Ravens don’t come away with at least one comp pick from this group. Potential: Very High

Cincinnati Bengals

Trey Hendrickson will lead the way after a bitter contractual standoff last season. Geno Stone, Joseph Ossai, Noah Fant, and Cordell Volson are other players that could be in play. And never count out Joe Flacco catching on somewhere if he still wants to play. That’s plenty for Cincinnati to work with if they want to come away with any comp picks, and in particular to preserve a possibly high one due to Hendrickson leaving. Potential: High

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have the highly unusual aspect of their entire starting offensive line from last season hitting free agency. Jack Conklin is ineligible to become a CFA due to having his contract shortened via renogitation, but the other four in Cam Robinson, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, and Wyatt Teller could catch on elsewhere. So too could David Njoku, Shelby Harris, or Martin Emerson. The Browns also still don’t have a lot of spending capacity, so that could restrain signing CFAs of their own to potentially produce some comp picks. Potential: Moderate

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have 22 pending UFAs that are eligible to become CFAs, with Kyle Dugger not among them due to having his contract shortened via renegotiation. Leading those who are eligible is Aaron Rodgers, should he sign elsewhere than Pittsburgh. Isaac Seumalo, James Pierre, Kenneth Gainwell, Calvin Austin, Chuck Clark, and Connor Heyward are other players that could be in play. That’s plenty for the Steelers to work with even if they re-sign some of those players or sign an external CFA or two. Potential: High

Houston Texans

The Texans are notorious for signing many low level veterans to one year contracts of middling production, and the assumption should be strong that they continue down that path. Perhaps an Ed Ingram or a Sheldon Rankins could generate a CFA worthy contract, but that will likely be drowned out by the more numerous CFAs that they typically sign. Potential: Very Low

Indianapolis Colts

With Daniel Jones receiving a transition tag tender, the path is completely clear for Alec Pierce to cash in, with the Colts or someone else. If that is somewhere else, then Indianapolis has plenty of other pending UFAs that are CFA worthy, such as Kwity Paye, Nick Cross, and Braden Smith, that they can use to still sign a few CFAs of their own while protecting a Pierce comp pick should he leave. The Colts could also be a bit constrained in spending due to the Jones tag, so that might also restrict their CFA signings. Potential: High

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars tend to be big spenders in free agency, but this season might be an exception with a high amount of salary commitments they already have. And while they have only 12 pending UFAs, there are some potentially heavy hitters in here with Devin Lloyd, Travis Etienne, Andrew Wingard, and Montaric Brown. The Jaguars typically don’t care about comp picks, but if they want to make an exception this season, they could make it happen. Potential: Moderate

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are another team that typically doesn’t care much about comp picks, and while they have 19 pending UFAs, only players like Arden Key or Chigoziem Okonkwo or Kevin Zeitler might move the needle. The question will be whether they want to hold off on bringing in more external CFAs to try to improve a roster that still needs plenty of improving–especially when they current lead the league in 2026 cap dollars available. Potential: Low

Denver Broncos

Once again, the Broncos were very proactive in extending key impending free agents such as Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, Luke Wattenberg, and Malcolm Roach. John Franklin-Myers looks to be the one exception that should get a lucrative contract elsewhere. Alex Singleton and JK Dobbins could also get CFA worthy contracts, but the Broncos could override that with making a CFA signing each at linebacker and running back to offset that. But given all their extensions there’s little additional spending to do, which could set them to protect a high comp pick for a JFM departure. Potential: Low

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have a high number of pending UFAs at 23, and several among them should get CFA worthy deals. Among them could be Leo Chenal, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, Marquise Brown, and Charles Omenihu. It seems wildly implausible that Travis Kelce would play anywhere but Kansas City, but he’s on the list too. The Chiefs could also be a bit more spending constrained this season, so that could set the stage for multiple comp picks coming their way. Potential: High

Las Vegas Raiders

Another season, another reset of the coaching staff for the Raiders. This could lead them to spend considerably to try to get the players that Klint Kubiak would want for the daunting task of turning this team around–especially since they have the 2nd highest cap space available.. While there’s a few players like Malcolm Koonce or Eric Stokes or even Daniel Carlson that could get CFA contracts elsewhere, that could get drowned out by the spending that they could be poised to do. Potential: Low

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have an eclectic mix of pending UFAs that could have varied market value. This includes long time veterans like Khalil Mack and Keenan Allen (who will be capped at a 5th round comp pick due to having 10+ accrued seasons), and younger players of questionable talent but with first round pedigree like Odafe Oweh and Zion Johnson. That’s something for the Chargers to work with, but with being right behind the Raiders in 3rd place in cap space, they might find it better to be more aggressive in free agency instead. Potential: Moderate

Dallas Cowboys

With the Cowboys either extending or trading their top core players, this leaves them with only 13 pending UFAs, and few of note at that. Jerry Jones has expressed a desire to be more aggressive in free agency this season than the Cowboys typically are, and after expected restructures to their stars, they’ll have the ability to do it. Potential: Very Low

New York Giants

The Giants are another team with few pending UFAs of note, but they do have a handful of very young players by UFA standards that other teams might take a flyer on. Wan’Dale Robinson leads that list, alone with Cordale Flott, Dane Belton, and Daniel Bellinger. Russell Wilson also can’t be counted out on garnering a CFA worthy contract even at backup value. That’s something for the Giants to work with if desired, but what might also be desired is to try to improve a roster that still needs improving with external help. Potential: Low

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles remain committed well in advance to the core of their roster, leaving much opportunity for the players that they don’t decide to keep. Among such possibilities this season are Jaelan Phillips, Reed Blankenship, Dallas Goedert, Nakobe Dean, and Jahan Dotson. There might not be a top tier caliber player in there like Milton Williams was last season, but that’s still plenty to work with for a team that likes to work for comp picks. Potential: High

Washington Commanders

The Commanders are set for a ton of churn this season. On one end, they have a league leading 29 pending UFAs. This includes notable names like Deebo Samuel, Von Miller, Bobby Wagner, and Chris Paul. Marcus Mariota is also always likely to get a CFA worthy contract even as a backup. On the other end, they have great spending potential as they continue to run on Jayden Daniels’s rookie contract. This is a team that could show up with a high number of CFAs that both left and signed, and whether that results in comp picks for them or not is uncertain. Potential: Moderate

Chicago Bears

The Bears have a bevy of defensive backs hitting the market that could get good deals–Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Nahshon Wright, perhaps even Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Jr. There’s not much more beyond that, but that’s something for the Bears to work with among their 22 pending UFAs if they so choose. Potential: Moderate

Detroit Lions

The Lions don’t have a whole bunch of notable names hitting free agency, but their list isn’t completely absent. Older players such as Alex Anzalone, DJ Reader, and Al-Quadin Muhammad could get attention. Perhaps someone wants to take another first round pedigree shot on Marcus Davenport, as well. Detroit might be able to squeeze a comp pick or two out of them, but they’d probably need to hold back in unrestricted free agency. Potential: Low

Green Bay Packers

Just like last season, the Packers have only 9 pending UFAs. But also just like last season, there are some high level names among them. Leading that list is Malik Willis, who seems poised to get a chance at a possible starter caliber quarterback contract in free agency. After him, there is Rasheed Walker, Quay Walker, Romeo Doubs, Sean Rhyan, and Kingsley Enagbare. The Packers have a long history of prioritizing comp picks, and this is a good season for them to do so if they keep their external CFA signings low, as usual. Potential: Very High

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings do not have many notable pending UFAs at all. Jalen Nailor might be it. With lots of roster churning going on amid a possible questionable quarterback situation, we might see that churning continue into unrestricted free agency. Potential: Very Low

Atlanta Falcons

Notable pending UFAs for the Falcons include Kaden Elliss as a well regarded linebacker who should get a decent third contract, and Tyler Allgeier as a well regarded committee running back who can be of co-starter quality. Dee Alford and David Onyemata could get some attention, and perhaps someone will take a flyer on the potential of Arnold Ebiketie. Those are playerse to work with if they leave, and Atlanta limits their own CFA signings. Potential: Moderate

Carolina Panthers

Rico Dowdle and DJ Wonnum might be able to get decent CFA deals elsewhere should they leave Charlotte, but there’s not much more to talk about beyond them. With breaking their recent playoff drought, they might instead be best poised to take some shots in free agency while they’re still on Bryce Young’s rookie contract. Potential: Very Low

New Orleans Saints

Alontae Tayor is the young player to watch here for getting a lucrative contract. Beyond that, the Saints are looking at their usual long time veterans to decide upon, such as Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Taysom Hill. Whether or not that will equate to any comp picks is quite uncertain, as the Saints are typically a team that doesn’t care for them much. Potential: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Longtime Bucs like Mike Evans and Lavonte David could be in a situation where they’re poised to finally play elsewhere. Cade Otton likely leads the way among younger players. Jamel Dean might see a decent contract as well. [CORRECTION, March 9: per Greg Auman, Dean will be ineligible to become a CFA due to a shorted contract via renegotiation.] That puts the Bucs as another team where their comp pick potential lies on just how active they want to be in external free agency. Potential: Moderate

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals don’t have much to speak for in this regard here, and with a new head coach and Kyler Murray on the outs at quarterback, this looks to be a situation where they’ll try to hit free agency to craft a much different looking roster. Potential: Very Low

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams could see some churn in the defensive backfield after just trading for Trent McDuffie, and with Cobie Durant, Kam Curl, and Roger McCreary hitting free agency. So too is Jimmy Garoppolo, who could fetch a CFA worthy contract if he leaves. The Rams are not averse to taking shots in free agency, but one reason why they’re able to sustain big trades like for McDuffie is their skill in regularly hitting on mid round draft picks, and a steady stream of comp picks has been a key part of that formula. Potential: Moderate

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a high quantity but possibly low quality of pending UFAs this time around. Jauan Jennings would likely lead this list. San Francisco has been one of the most comp pick awarded teams in recent seasons, and they could still see other teams target their free agents at good prices. But this could also be a season for them to return serve in the competitive NFC West with a few strategic CFA signings. Potential: Low

Seattle Seahawks

Like the Packers, the Seahawks have only 9 pending UFAs, but the quality is high. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker has been getting the most attention after Seattle declined to tag him, and Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Rashid Shaheed, Coby Bryant, and josh Jobe should all see some good action too. The Seahawks definitely have spending capacity to maintain their position, but they’ll have to ask themselves what the best tradeoff with regard to comp picks is when they form their decisions. Potential: High

UPDATE – March 3: per a source OTC considers reliable, the leaguewide number of players the 2026 compensatory free agents are judged against is likely to be a bit higher than originally projected here. This tweet shows the minor changes that would take place if that is correct.

This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2025 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory pick cancellation charts here.

The Projection

This draft, I am projecting that there will be 34 regular compensatory picks generated from the typical netting process. However, exactly 32 picks must be awarded under typical circumstances. This means that the two comp picks in excess of 32, for the New York Jets and Denver, will not be awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge that the teams were otherwise eligible for the picks.

In recent seasons, the NFL Management Council has released the list of compensatory picks the week before the start of the new league year, which this season is March 12. Although it could hypothetically be released at any time after the Super Bowl, it is most likely to be released sometime between March 3 and 7.

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error. The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”.

What exactly defines “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season” has long been mysterious. But at long last, a key missing piece of the puzzle has been discovered that could finally provide a regularly accurate estimate of this number. Per a source that OTC considers reliable, in order to be included among the number of leaguewide players, a player not only has to be on a roster for Week 18, but also must have been on any NFL roster for at least 10 games. A player appears to be considered “on a roster” if he is on the 53 player roster (active or inactive), is elevated from the practice squad, or is on a reserve list (Injured Reserve being the most common). A week spent on the practice squad without elevation does not count.

This additional rule is likely a holdover from the compensatory formula before the 2020 CBA. Before then, compensatory free agents were also subject to the 10 game rule in order to qualify. However, this was changed in the 2020 CBA, likely due to multiple teams the season before abruptly cutting CFAs that would have cost them a comp pick.

After going through the list of players on rosters on Week 18, and removing those who did not meet the 10 game threshold, this provided an estimate of 1,967 players, and is the number that is used for the above projection. If that number is close to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

I consider myself very fortunate that I have been informed of this additional 10 game threshold for this draft’s projection, because otherwise this would be one of the most challenging projections that I have had to do. That is because there are an unusually high number of players that are on the bubble of qualifying as compensatory free agents. This is due to this cutoff being close to $3 million APY, which is a round and popular amount to give to free agents.

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

• Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #98
• Carlton Davis (Detroit => New England): #100

4th/5th

• Jevon Holland (Miami => New York Giants): #192
• DJ Reed (New York Jets => Detroit): #196
• Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #196

5th/6th

• Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #295
• Kevin Zeitler (Detroit => Tennessee): #298
• Jourdan Lewis (Dallas => Jacksonville): #300

6th/7th

• Joe Flacco (Indianapolis => Cleveland & Cincinnati): #491
• Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #491

7th/Qualifying

• Chuma Edoga (Dallas => Jacksonville): #667
• Azeez Ojulari (New York Giants => Philadelphia): #669
• Ifeatu Melifonwu (Detroit => Miami): #674
• Eric Wilson (Green Bay => Minnesota): #675
• Brandin Echols (New York Jets => Pittsburgh): #676
• Solomon Thomas (New York Jets => Dallas): #680
• Tremon Smith (Denver => Houston): #685
• Deatrich Wise (New England => Washington): #688
• Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #688
• JK Dobbins (Los Angeles Chargers => Denver): #693
• Nick Westbrook-Ihkine (Tennessee => Miami): #694
• Tyler Conklin (New York Jets => Los Angeles Chargers): #695
• Jacob Martin (Chicago => Washington): #702
• Cooper Rush (Dallas => Baltimore): #703

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

The contract that JK Dobbins signed with the Broncos on June 11 is unusual because it is a rare case of a player eligible to become a compensatory free agent despite being signed after the normal cutoff date on the Monday after the draft. This is due to the Chargers playing a UFA tender on him in order to preserve his compensatory free agent potential.

But it is additionally unusual due to a new provision that Denver put into his contract with regard to his per game roster bonuses of a total of $680,000. In order to earn any of them, no matter how many games he played, he or the Broncos also had to meet at least one of ten metrics. This caused all of his per gamers to be classified as Not Likely To Be Earned. With the Broncos tying for the best record in the league and now just one game away from playing in the Super Bowl, the team met that metric easily for Dobbins.

Dobbins played 10 games in the regular season before suffering a Lisfranc injury that sidelined him until perhaps this upcoming AFC Championship Game. This means that he earned $400,000 of the per gamers. In addition to his base salary of $1.338 million and a signing bonus of $727,000, Dobbins also earned a $255,000 incentive for rushing 700 yards that also needed one of many metrics that included the same improvement in Broncos wins. Thus, at the very least, his APY under the compensatory formula will be $2.72 million.

The question is how the compensatory formula will judge the Not Likely To Be Earned $280,000 in per gamers that was indeed not earned. There are two contradictory clauses in Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) on this matter, emphasis mine:

A player’s Gross Salary shall include: […] (d) roster bonus (including per-game bonuses, which shall count in full)

A player’s Gross Salary shall also include: (a) official performance incentives […] that are earned by the player in the first League Year of the contract, or that are considered “likely to be earned”

The remaining $280,000 were considered incentives that were neither earned or Likely To Be Earned, which would reject them from counting under the second clause. But they were also per game roster bonuses, which would qualify them under the first clause.

To account for the situation that casts more doubt on whether Dobbins will qualify as a CFA, I am projecting that the first clause will override the second, and that Dobbins’s APY will be at that key number of $3 million, which draws him very close to the qualification bubble that will be consequential for both the Broncos and Chargers.

Possible Altering Scenarios

• Baltimore
  • If Cooper Rush qualifies, Baltimore will not get a 7th for Tre’Davious White.
• Dallas
  • If Chuma Edoga qualifies and Solomon Thomas and Cooper Rush do not qualify, or if all three players qualify, Dallas will get a 6th for Rico Dowdle.
• Denver
  • If JK Dobbins qualifies, Denver will not get a 7th for Javonte Williams.
• Detroit
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu does not qualify, Detroit will only be eligible for a net value 7th round comp pick that will not make the 32 pick limit.
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu qualifies and DJ Reed’s contract is valued in the 5th round, Detroit will get a 3rd or 4th for Carlton Davis instead of a 5th or 6th for Kevin Zeitler.
• Los Angeles Chargers
  • If JK Dobbins qualifies and Tyler Conklin does not qualify, the Los Angeles Chargers will get a 6th for Kristian Fulton.
• Miami
  • If Ifeatu Melifonwu and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine do not qualify, Miami will get a 4th or 5th for Jevon Holland.
• Minnesota
  • If Eric Wilson does not qualify, Minnesota gets a 5th for Daniel Jones.
• New York Jets
  • If Brandin Echols, Solomon Thomas, and Tyler Conklin all do not qualify, the New York Jets will not get a 5th for Morgan Moses.
• Philadelphia
  • If Azeez Ojulari does not qualify, Philadelphia gets a 6th for Isaiah Rodgers.
• Washington
  • If Deatrich Wise does not qualify, Washington will get a 6th for Dante Fowler.

Visualizing Possible Outcomes

Finally, due to the numerous outcomes that could take place, I thought I’d try something new this draft, and display 20 possibilities, based upon what the leaguewide number could be from the range of historical extremes from 1,886 to 2015. This is a large graphic, so I’m sticking it at the bottom of the page for reference. We’ll see if any of these 20 become the actual results.

With the regular season finished, let’s take a look once again at a list of players who could see their contracts terminated or negatively altered in the leadup to the start of the next league year. Looking at the list of pending unrestricted free agents coming from contracts that are expiring is regularly a useful starting point, but as we all know, more players will become available free agents to sign by being cut from their previous teams.

This list is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months. The metrics used are OTC’s estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2025 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture.

As always, it is stressed that most players on this list will likely not be cut. There are many mitigating factors as to why players show up on this list. One of course is injury, particularly to players who missed most of the season–although it can also be an aggravating factor if the team determines that injury has made the player unreliable on his contract. Quality of roster depth at the player’s position is another. Teams are also always willing and able to break the trends of contract fate and keep players they think will be helpful for next season’s roster. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players on this list are unlikely to be cut, even if it’s informative to see them on the list.

With that, this list is built from the players who:

• Are due a minimum of $4 million in cash for 2025.
• Have a negative contract fate greater than 50%.
• Are within the top 100 in players with the worst OTC valuation above median starter, which is defined in OTC’s explainer of the valuation diamond.

Breakdown by team

Here are the number of players each team has on this list:

• 9: Cardinals
• 7: Vikings, Commanders
• 4: Panthers, Dolphins, Packers, Browns, Bears, Giants, Titans
• 3: Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Falcons, Saints, Texans, 49ers, Colts, Rams
• 2: Seahawks, Steelers, Jets, Ravens, Raiders, Cowboys
• 1: Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Lions
• 0: Eagles

While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2026. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.

Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2026 versus their 2026 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.

The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2026 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might still make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.

The teams in the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. These are teams who for most of them would be expected to stay largely committed to their rosters for 2026.

Teams in the top right quadrant have plenty to spend, but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Never rule out any of these teams making skill based cuts regardless of their current finances, but the pressure to make those cuts is lower.

The teams in the lower right quadrant are the ones to focus on. They have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action will likely take place.

Teams of note

The Commanders and Vikings are the teams of note with the most money showing up on the list, even while they reside in opposing quadrant corners. They both followed the typical book of going in heavy on veteran talent after having successful seasons after drafting a rookie quarterback high. But both had very disappointing seasons this time around, and there should be questions as to whether those veteran investments remain worth it.

The decisions of whether to cut or restructure will be more urgent for the Vikings given the cap dollars they need to clear. But another way that they diverge is that the Commanders also have the highest number of snaps entering free agency. There could be major roster churn just on those grounds alone, even if they don’t need or want to cut other players under contract.

The Cardinals are right in between the above two teams in cap space, with less money showing up on the list, but they also have the highest number of players on the list. Kyler Murray is not one of those players, but with rumors that he could be on the outs in Glendale, along with a new coaching staff on the way, considerable roster churn could also be on the way.

The Dolphins are similar to the Cardinals in that they are also making a coaching change, and may also have a change at quarterback away from Tua Tagovailoa–also not on this list. However, the majority of the money that shows up in this list is in one player: Tyreek Hill, who suffered a devastating knee injury bringing serious doubt on any return to the field. Parting ways with Hill will address the lion’s share of Miami’s notability here, even if more change could be on the way.

The Browns’ high amount of money on the chart above does not include Deshaun Watson, despite his presence as #1 on the list, as his contract is infamously fully guaranteed. Regardless of what they end up doing with him, they’ll have to find a way to balance one more season worth of wasted cap dollars and cash in order to make their ledger for 2026 fit.

Finally, I would not look too much into the Chiefs’ placement at the very bottom of the chart. They have a lot of salary due to Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones that are not going anywhere that they can and will restructure to get into compliance for 2026.

Last week was a reminder as to just how challenging it is for NFL players to earn incentives in their contracts, and how so few are achieved. From what I listed last week as possibilities, only the following incentives were earned:

• Cameron Jordan: 9 sacks for $600,000
• Mike Jackson: 4 interceptions for $500,000
• Stefon Diggs: 70 receptions for $500,000
• Hunter Henry: 55 receptions for $250,000
• Dawson Knox: 30 receptions for $100,000

In addition, the amount of points the Dolphins have both allowed and scored are going to be critical in Week 18 for the wallets of multiple players in Miami, as top 20 rankings in one of each are a necessary condition. For points scored, they are 22nd with 337. The Giants and Chiefs stand in their way of getting in the top 20 with 247 and 350. Points allowed is even closer: they are 21st with 386, only two behind the Falcons with 384. What these players on the Dolphins will want is not only to find a way to beat the Patriots with a high margin of victory despite them fighting for high playoff seeding, but also for the Cowboys and Raiders getting stingy on defense, and the Saints to be able to put up a lot of points.

As with last week, here’s the update of incentives that could be practical to earn, broken down by broadcast window:

Saturday, January 3

Sunday, January 4 (early afternoon)

Sunday, January 4 (late afternoon)

Sunday, January 4 (evening)

With the Pro Bowl honors announced yesterday, it also settled a wide number of incentives that hinged on being named on the original ballot to the honor. As I tweeted yesterday, of 126 such incentives worth up to $47.012 million, only 4 players–Demarcus Lawrence, Kyle Juszczyk, Nico Collins, and Ross Matiscik–managed to earn them, for a measly total of just $1.05 million, or 2.2%.

It’s a regularly stark example of how the grand majority of all incentives won’t be earned. But as we approach the conclusion of the regular season, where most incentives will be determined, on this Christmas Eve I thought would be good to highlight some of the exceptions that are on the line as possible gifts for Christmas or belated within the last two weeks, as something to perhaps root for in games that otherwise have little meaning, given that 14 teams are already eliminated from the playoffs.

The incentives mentioned below will mostly focus on individual metrics based on traditional statistics. Incentives earned based on playing time or postseason performance may be studied at a later date.

Sam Darnold is on the verge of cashing in

Darnold’s three year contract signed with the Seahawks this season contains annual incentives in nine different metrics of $500,000 each, thus up to $4.5 million per season. Four of those are based upon postseason performance, and Darnold has already earned one of those due to Seattle making the playoffs. A fifth needs the Seahawks to be in the top ten of net yardage on offense, which the team is well on the way to achieving.

The remaining four are individual metrics directly in Darnold’s control. Here’s what they are, where he’s at, and where he needs to go–and they are all very close:

Rico Dowdle could get a near clean sweep

The only incentive Dowdle won’t earn for sure on his one year contract with a base value of $2.75 million, but with $3.5 million in incentives, is $500,000 for being named to the Pro Bowl.

However, Dowdle should have already earned $1.5 million more due to gaining scrimmage yards that was also based on one of many individual or team improvements, one of which has already been achieved. Dowdle has also earned a $250,000 incentive for scoring at least 6 total touchdowns.

Dowdle can earn another $250,000 if he gets one more total total TD to bring the total to 8–he currently has seven. Dowdle can also earn the largest incentive of $1 million if he gets 1,350 scrimmage yards. He is currently at 1,280–thus, only 70 more yards to go.

Stefon Diggs’s comeback could get lucrative

Diggs is having a good season after signing a three year, $63.5 million contract with the Patriots. It can get even better for him as he closes in on a set of incentives based on receiving yards and receptions, each containing a four tier package of $500,000 each, for a total of up to $4 million.

Diggs currently has 76 receptions for 869 receiving yards. The receptions are in increments of 70, 80, 90, and 100, so he has already earned the first $500,000 here, and can earn another $500,000 with just 4 more catches. The yardage increments are 1,000, 1,100, 1,200, and 1,300. Diggs needs 131 more yards to reach the first increment.

Kendrick Bourne has more possible paydays ahead

On the last Monday Night Football broadcast, it was observed in real time that Bourne earned a $500,000 incentive for crossing 500 receiving yards. Bourne can earn another $250,000 if he crosses 600 yards–he is currently at 526. Bourne can also earn $500,000 for crossing 45 receptions, and another $250,000 if he crosses 55. Bourne is currently at 36.

Multiple Dolphins have incentives hinging on team performance

In their incentives, the Dolphins regularly have clauses that tie them to team performance that typically requires the team to be in the top 20 of points scored (offense) or points allowed (defense). The Dolphins currently rank 22nd in both metrics.

Two players, Bradley Chubb and Ifeatu Melifonwu, are players that have achievable incentives on these top 20 metrics are as follows:

A third player, Larry Borom, has the same top 20 points scored metric on a pair of playtime incentives of $250,000 each for crossing 60% and 75% of the offensive snaps. Borom is currently at 69.7%.

And a fourth player, Ashtyn Davis, has similar playtime incentives of $250,000 each for crossing 50% and 60% of the defensive snaps. Davis is currently at 64.1%. However, for Davis, the team rank on points allowed is top 25, not 20. That means that as things stand now, Davis would earn his incentives, but the other three players would not.

Where this is also potentially troublesome for the Dolphins is in 2026 compensatory picks. All three of Melifonwu, Borom, and Davis are on the bubble of qualifying as compensatory free agents. The Dolphins can only afford to have one of them qualify in order to receive a 4th rounder for Jevon Holland leaving for the Giants. Any of these players earning these incentives could make it more likely that they qualify as compensatory free agents.

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Week 17 schedule of incentives on the line, by day/time window

In addition to the players above that have very detailed incentive scenarios, there are plenty of more where the scenario is simpler. I’ve grouped these players by when they play for Week 17, so you can follow along to see if the players get there–similar to following one’s fantasy team, or bet placed, but for the greater cause of securing players some bags.

Thursday, December 25 (Christmas)

Saturday, December 27

Sunday, December 28 (early afternoon games)

Sunday, December 28 (late afternoon games)

Sunday, December 28 (evening)

Monday, December 29

This is a cross post from Broncos Contracts, where occasional looks are taken at the development of the roster of the Denver Broncos. This article takes a recent extension as an example to consider implications that could occur to any of the teams leaguewide.

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Over The Cap recently added Luke Wattenberg’s four year extension to its database, and it is really telling as to how it’s a tale of two stories when it comes to cash payment versus cap dollar management–a theme that’s become regular for the team.

When I had forecasted a possible extension for Wattenberg back in July, I did not go into much detail on contract structure, as I figured it would be an easy and boring contract to structure. In addition to being what I consider to be team friendly compensation, I was indeed correct that the annual cash flow was boring, as follows:

The Broncos spiced up a Saturday morning by agreeing to a four year, $102 million extension with Zach Allen. Let’s take a look as to how this contract stacks up to his peers.

APY

At $25.5 million APY, Allen becomes the third highest paid interior defensive lineman in the league. I had previously scoped out a range between $20 million and $26 million that Allen’s next contract would likely fall under, and it’s no surprise to me that he hit almost to the upper bound here, short only to Milton Williams, the only IDL in this tier to get his contract in unrestricted free agency.

Guarantee Structure

Full guarantees at signing lag considerably behind Allen’s peers, ranking only 8th. Allen partially makes up for this by getting a strong expedited vesting guarantee for 2027 at $15.75 million. At about 58.8%, this doesn’t quite match the percentage of likely guarantees that Milton Williams, Nnamdi Madubuike, or Quinnen Williams got. But it is just enough to add some considerable friction against the Broncos from moving on, who would take a slightly negative pre-June 1 cap dollar hit in 2027 of $2.43 million.

Allen also agreed to considerable per game roster bonuses, equating to $45,000 per game in the first three seasons, and $60,000 per game in the fourth. However, he does offset this by getting guarantees, either full or vested, on the first two seasons, even if he still has to earn them.

Cash Flow

Allen’s $13.75 million in new money at signing before the extension begins ranks 5th among his peers. In the first season, pay is consistent with all of the upper tier (and even distant clubhouse leader Chris Jones), which is very tightly ranged between $31 million and $32 million. But for the rest of the contract, his running cash totals are consistent with the APY of being third in the league.

Overall thoughts

This contract may surprise some who don’t follow the Broncos closely, because Allen has been overlooked by fans and media as a whole since he arrived in Denver. He did make a 2nd team AP All Pro last season. But he has yet to get a similar honor from the PFWA, nor has he been named to a Pro Bowl, and he did not make the top 10 in Madden’s ratings. But this contract should force more to pay attention, especially given that he led the league in snaps among interior defensive linemen by four percentage points last season, and was particularly noted for his extraordinary ability to make contact with the quarterback.

I think this contract is aggressively fair for the Broncos. Allen trades off just a bit of early security compared to his peers, and in turn gets a contract that is competitive to what his market value likely would have been given the similarities to Milton Williams, who signed as a free agent. It’s clear that Denver highly values Allen as a key long term piece of the defense, and commensurately rewarded him for it.

With Allen extended, the questions don’t end at interior defensive line for Denver. John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach are both on the final season of their contracts, and the Broncos will have to weigh how much they want to invest at that position, especially after also extending DJ Jones earlier this season. Third round rookie Sai’vion Jones should also be observed for any progress. Nik Bonitto is also the most likely Bronco to get the top priority for an extension, and if he’s waiting to see how Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson shape the top five edge rusher pay, that could mean that franchise tag caliber pay could be in play.

It is excellent to see the Broncos continue to be aggressively proactive in getting ahead of the market with their best players. I pushed for Patrick Surtain II to get a market shattering contract as soon as they were allowed to, they did so, and within less than a year afterward, he got named Defensive Player Of The Year…and amazingly is now only the 5th highest paid cornerback by APY. No contract negotiation can ever be guaranteed to be taken care of swiftly, but under George Paton and Sean Payton this is more likely to be the norm instead of the exception.

This article is cross posted from Broncos Contracts. Feel free to take a visit to see contract and roster analysis tailored more deeply toward the Denver Broncos.