This article refers specifically to OTC’s final projection for the 2022 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article. Note that this projection does not include compensatory picks awarded via 2020 Resolution JC-2A.

To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory picks cancellation charts here.

The Projection

This draft, I am projecting that there will be exactly 32 regular compensatory picks generated. There is a chance that there could be more than 32, but any picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge presence of any comp picks in excess of 32. I do not expect fewer than 32 regular compensatory picks to be generated, but if that happens, the NFL Management council will add supplementary 7th round compensatory picks to get to 32, in the order of what would be the eighth round. This draft, the first five teams in order for that would be Jacksonville, Detroit, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, and Houston.

Typically, the official release comes out on the Friday before the NFL Scouting Combine. This year, that is scheduled for March 1-7, so the Friday before would be February 25. However, because the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could still result in different operations than usual for the Combine, there still may be low reliance on that precise date, particularly if there is little to no attendance by NFL executives and player agents. The range of the release could be anywhere after the Super Bowl (February 13) but before the start of free agency (March 16).

Cutoff Projections

The most difficult part of projecting the compensatory picks is accurately identifying where the cutoffs lie between each rounds, and where the cutoff for qualifying as a Compensatory Free Agent (CFA) is. That is because the larger subset of the leaguewide players of which the smaller subset of compensatory free agents are judged against is never the same size, and requires accurately tracking roster transactions for thousands of players–a feat that will always have a margin of error.

The key number that determines these cutoffs is, per Appendix V, Paragraph 2(a) of the CBA, is the number of “all other League players on rosters at the conclusion of the regular season”. This draft, I will be attempting a different way to project this number. In the past, I would use OTC’s database to attempt to identify this number, and this time, it identified 2,133 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists. However, it identified a similar number last year, and that number ended up being nowhere close to what it had to have been to meld OTC’s program with the actual results.

Although I will still list out scenarios that could result if the number is closer to 2,133, instead for this projection I will be using an average of the estimated number of leaguewide players in previous sets of compensatory picks, dating back to 2014. This average comes out to 1,976. If that number is closer to accurate, here is where the cutoffs would lie:

However, if the number is closer to the number of 2,133 that OTC’s database suggests, the cutoffs would look closer like this:

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

3rd/4th

• Higher projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #98
• Trey Hendrickson (New Orleans): #104
• Bud Dupree (Pittsburgh): #106
• Lower projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #106
• Matt Judon (Baltimore): #109

4th/5th

• Higher projected 4th/5th cutoff: #197
• Lower projected 4th/5th cutoff: #213
• Rayshawn Jenkins (Los Angeles Chargers): #219

5th/6th

• A.J. Green (Cincinnati): #289
• Higher projected 5th/6th cutoff: #296
• Haason Reddick (Arizona): #301
• Gerald Everett (Los Angeles Rams): #307
• Lower projected 5th/6th cutoff: #319

6th/7th

• Higher projected 6th/7th cutoff: #494
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco): #528
• Denzel Perryman (Los Angeles Chargers): #531
• Dan Feeney (Los Angeles Chargers): #532
• Lower projected 6th/7th cutoff: #533
• Kerry Hyder (San Francisco): #535

7th/Qualifying

• Damien Wilson (Kansas City): #665
• Joe Haeg (Tampa Bay): #668
• Nick Vigil (Los Angeles Chargers): #689
• Higher projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #691
• Tanoh Kpassagnon (Kansas City): #700
• John Ross (Cincinnati): #701
• Justin Hardee (New Orleans): #702
• Kevin Johnson (Houston): #703
• Matt Haack (Miami): #715
• Lower projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #746

Qualifying/Valuation Questions

This draft, by far the most consequential close calls are all bunched together right at the cutoff as to whether contracts will qualify players to become CFAs. In particular, there are four players whose contracts should all be valued equally in the compensatory formula. All four of those players–Tanoh Kpassagnon, John Ross, Justin Hardee, and Kevin Johnson–signed for the same APY, $2.25 million, and none of them were able to play the minimum amount of 25% of the regular season snaps on offense or defense to get a snap count boost in the formula. Therefore, either all four of these players will qualify, or they will not.

Of these four, Hardee is the least consequential, and there should be no consequence to New Orleans: either both of the contracts of Hardee (CFA lost) and Kpassagnon (CFA signed) will qualify, and thus cancel each other out, or both won’t, thus being disregarded, and still keeping their projected 6th round comp pick intact either way. Kpassgnon’s qualification is of minimal consequence to Kansas City, as they would either get a late 7th for his departure or they wouldn’t.

But the two teams that this group of players are more consequential for are Cincinnati and Tennessee. For the Bengals that consequence is high: without Ross’s contract qualifying in their favor, they would have an equal number of CFAs lost and signed, and get no comp picks at all. They need Ross in their cancellation chart in order to open up a potential 4th round comp pick. Inversely, the Titans do not want Johnson’s contract to qualify against them–otherwise they will see a potential 6th round comp pick cancelled out.

There is also a unique circumstance with Kevin Johnson–despite signing that contract with the Titans on March 22, Johnson opted to retire on June 4. I have not seen an example in the past of how the compensatory formula treats retirements of CFAs that do not play a down in the regular season. Because Appendix V does not explicitly have a rule on retired players, I am projecting that the formula will treat Johnson normally and possibly qualify his contract for CFA status. But I could easily be wrong, as it would be rough on the Titans to lose a 6th round pick due to a player that left the team before even training camp started.

At both extremes of the margin of error projected here also contain consequential qualification questions. Joe Haeg, who barely got a snap count boost by playing 26.2%, may have cost the Steelers an additional 5th round comp pick, while Matt Haack, if the qualification cutoff is generous enough, could get Miami on the board with a 5th rounder of their own.

Finally, keep an eye on whether Nick Vigil’s contract qualifies. Playing 59.5% of the snaps, and earning $250,000 in incentives based upon that playtime, may have done the trick. This will mean nothing for the Los Angeles Chargers, as they are projected to already get the maximum number of four comp picks without Vigil’s assistance, but if he qualifies, he should be listed in the official release as a CFA lost for the Chargers, perhaps giving some guidance as to where that qualification cutoff lies.

Beyond the qualifying cutoff, the other consequential cutoff lies at the 5th/6th round, and it is particularly so for Arizona, who are projected under their worst case scenario of a 6th and two 7th rounders. But depending on where that cutoff lies, there could be a best case scenario for them of two 5th rounders and a 7th rounder.

Possible Altering Scenarios

• Arizona
  • If the contracts of both A.J. Green and Haason Reddick are valued in the 5th round, Arizona will get a 5th for Reddick instead of a 6th for Kenyan Drake.
  • If the contracts of both A.J. Green and Haason Reddick are valued in the 6th round, Arizona will get a higher 5th for Patrick Peterson instead of a 6th for Kenyan Drake.
  • If Haason Reddick’s contract is valued in the 5th round and A.J. Green’s contract in the 6th round, Arizona will get two 5ths for Patrick Peterson and Reddick instead of a 6th for Kenyan Drake and a 7th for Dan Arnold.
• Cincinnati
  • If John Ross qualifies, Cincinnati will get a 4th for Carl Lawson.
• Kansas City
  • If Damien Wilson does not qualify, Kansas City will not get a 7th for his departure.
  • If Tanoh Kpassagnon qualifies, Kansas City will be eligible for a 7th for his departure, but that pick may not make the 32-pick limit.
• Los Angeles Chargers
  • If Rayshawn Jenkins’s contract is valued in the 4th round, the Los Angeles Chargers will get a 4th for him instead of a 6th for Tyrod Taylor.
• Miami
  • If Matt Haack qualifies, Miami will get a 5th for Davon Godchaux.
• Pittsburgh
  • If Joe Haeg does not qualify, Pittsburgh will get a 5th for Matt Feiler.
• Tampa Bay
  • If Joe Haeg does not qualify, Tampa Bay will not get a 7th for his departure.
• Tennessee
  • If Kevin Johnson qualifies, Tennessee will not get a 6th for DaQuan Jones.

With voting for the Pro Bowl in its prime, and a preliminary list of leaders from the fan votes released by the NFL, here is your annual guide toward how you, as a fan (or even players, if they just so happen to read this) can maximize your Pro Bowl vote to help top players in the league earn pay raises via mechanisms in the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement.

There are two situations in the CBA where an original ballot (not as an alternate) Pro Bowl honor could result in a raise in salary:

• Article 7, Section 4(e)(iv) creates a tier of Proven Performance Escalator that can raise the salary of a player drafted outside of the first round to the value of the 2nd round restricted free agent tender.
• Article 7, Section 7(g)(iii-iv) calls for fifth year options on first round rookie contracts to equate to the transition tag if named to a Pro Bowl once in their first three seasons, and to the franchise tag for two or three.

Here are some of the players that could see notable raises in their salaries should they earn an original ballot Pro Bowl, grouped by conference and position. All numbers used are OTC’s estimates for the fifth year options for the 2019 first round picks, and for the franchise, transition, and RFA tenders. To maximize strategic voting, prioritize on your ballot players from the 2019 rookie class, as this will be last time they are eligible for the following pay raises.

AFC Quarterback

Burrow and Herbert are 11th and 4th in passing yards, 8th and 5th in touchdowns, and 9th and 15th in passer rating. They will have to fend off the typical clubhouse leaders in their conference in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson in order to work on these pay raises. But a Pro Bowl bid now for Burrow and Herbert is necessary if they want to reach the highest fifth year options possible, as that requires two Pro Bowl honors before their third seasons are over.

NFC Quarterback

Murray was named to the Pro Bowl last season, securing at least a transition tag amount for his fifth year option that should be a raise of over $4 million. A Pro Bowl bid this season likely boosts that salary another $3 million higher. The league leader in passer rating, Murray’s likely competitors for this spot will be Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Dak Prescott.

AFC Running Back

Taylor is the leaguewide leader in Pro Bowl fan votes at this moment, and his election feels imminent. This is especially important for Taylor, because as a running back who naturally plays fewer snaps than players at other positions, Taylor is currently ineligible for any PPE raise. A Pro Bowl bid would shoot him all the way to the top PPE tier, and keep him there for good.

Jacobs surprised most by securing a Pro Bowl bid last season, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll do so again, he’s included for completion purposes at one last shot at another pay raise. As a rookie, Harris, 8th in rushing yards, has some extra time to get to the Pro Bowl, but if he gets named now, in a season when Derrick Henry is likely out for the remainder of the season, he has a better chance to get that franchise tag raise that could very well be as high as a $7 million difference.

NFC Running Back

Gibson has quietly put together a nice season in DC, ranking 7th in rushing yards leaguewide. He’ll have to fend off bigger names like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette to get this pay raise. As part of the 2020 rookie class, Gibson will have another shot next season if he doesn’t get it now.

AFC Wide Receiver

Chase currently leads the fan vote, and getting named now will help his cause toward getting the maximum raise on his fifth year option. But I’ll flag two long shot PPE raise candidates in Johnson and Pittman, currently 5th and 6th among AFC receivers in yardage.

NFC Wide Receiver

It’s pretty stunning that McLaurin has yet to make a Pro Bowl despite his contribution over the past three seasons. He’ll be a long shot this time around due to being 8th in receiving yardage in the NFC, but this is his last chance to get that hard earned raise.

NFC Tight End

Not much to say here: Pitts leads the fan voting at this position, and is living up to the hype as the 4th overall rookie this season. Pitts could be well on his way to easily securing that franchise tag raise by the time his 5th year option comes around.

AFC Tackle

For positions like the offensive line where traditional stats aren’t as helpful, I’ll use our OTC Valuation metric for some assistance. And by this metric, there is no other tackle ahead of this impressive rookie.

NFC Tackle

By OTC valuation, Wirfs is the highest rated right tackle in the league, and is behind only Donovan Smith (his teammate) and Tyron Smith among NFC tackles.

AFC Guard

This is Risner’s last chance to get a PPE raise, even if it’s daunting. Onwenu currently leads the league in OTC valuation, while Smith has been an impressive 6th round rookie that is typical from being coached by Andy Reid.

NFC Guard

Lindstrom ranks 5th among NFC guards in OTC valuation, and as a member of the 2019 rookie class, this is his last chance to secure a raise on his fifth year option

NFC Center

Biadasz leads the fan voting at this position, and the PPE raise would be higher than most other offensive linemen, as Biadasz currently is only at the lowest tier of achievement here due to low snaps in his rookie season.

AFC Defensive Tackle

Simmons leads the fan voting at this position, and both he and Wilkins are members of the 2019 rookie class that grade out well in OTC valuation, ranking 1st and 3rd among AFC players the NFL considers defensive tackles.

NFC Defensive Tackle

Lawrence is another defensive tackle from the 2019 rookie class with one last shot at a fifth year option raise, though in his case he’ll be a longer shot to fend off the likes of dominant regulars like Aaron Donald, as well as his own teammate in Leonard Williams.

NFC Defensive End

Bosa leads the fan voting here, and should be a shoe-in to get this fifth year option raise. But it’s Burns, who is second only to Bosa in sacks among NFC players the NFL considers to be defensive ends, who could get a much more massive raise, due to not even playing enough snaps to qualify for the playtime boost in fifth year option pay.

AFC Outside Linebacker

Allen does not have the sack totals to stand out, and he’ll have a daunting task to best big names like TJ Watt and Matt Judon, but his draft pedigree and his big showing against The Other Josh Allen shouldn’t rule him out for his last chance to get a significant raise.

AFC Inside Linebacker

Bush and Queen are first round picks that play for teams with high profile defenses that could benefit from a Pro Bowl honor–particularly Bush, who’s on his last chance. Okereke is a dark horse candidate that’s also on his last chance, and in his case he would get a higher PPE raise than others, as he’s currently only on the lowest level of such a raise.

NFC Inside Linebacker

White leads the fan vote at this position, while Parsons is a legitimate candidate for Defensive Rookie Of The Year. It would be better for White to get the honor over Parsons if it comes down to it, as this is White’s last chance at a raise.

AFC Free Safety

With most of the heavy hitters at this position (Justin Simmons, Kevin Byard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Micah Hyde) in the AFC, perhaps that could open up an opportunity for Chinn on the NFC side. He’ll have another chance next season if he doesn’t get it now.

AFC Cornerback

Surtain had a dominant performance last week against the Chargers, intercepting Justin Herbert twice, and could be right along Parsons in the Defensive Rookie Of The Year conversation. Tre’Davious White going down for the season could end up cracking the door open for a rookie Pro Bowl bid alongside the likes of AFC veterans like Marlon Humphrey, JC Jackson, or Xavien Howard.

NFC Cornerback

Diggs leads the fan voting at this position, and has been a prominent defender for a prominent team in Dallas.

The very first project I did for Over The Cap was to develop the Salary Cap Calculator, a device that allows users to run an array of transactions for any team, and demonstrate how those transactions will change the team’s salary cap status. This project was done back in 2014, and in the seven years since, much has changed with not only league rules with a new CBA, but also with web development in general. The code that had been used to write the calculator was growing increasingly unstable, and with difficult usability across an array of devices.

Thus, I’m happy to release the second version of the OTC Salary Cap Calculator, with its aim to fix most of these issues. Much of the changes come in the form of coding changes that will not be visible to the end user, but there are several changes that you will see as you interact, while preserving some of the features you’re already used to:

• Emphasis has been made to make the calculator more friendly to operate on phones and tablets, as we anticipate that many of our users would like to make hypothetical roster changes while they’re on the move. Interaction elements, such as buttons, dropdown menus, and input fields, have been redimensioned to make it easier to operate on touch devices. On phones, it is preferred to operate in landscape mode in order to be able to fully use all features, but the aim is that it will still be more accessible than the first version.
• In a similar effort to preserve space for usability across devices, we have merged all non-prorated bonuses into one column. If you are interested in separating such bonuses into their specific categories (regular roster bonus, per-game roster bonus, workout bonus, etc.) or to craft in incentives and escalators, we recommend that you go into more detail with using OTC’s Contract Constructor.
• In another space-conserving measure, the table at the top listing the cap space, liabilities, and team salary cap has been limited to four seasons. We feel that the grand majority of users will not have much interest in these numbers beyond four seasons. However, for seasons further out you may select the tabs that go out to ten seasons, and see the team’s liabilities at the bottom of the table for that season.
• The “Extend” feature has been reworked and expanded to also include renegotiations that do not typically qualify as extensions. This can include actions such as cutting a player’s pay, or adding void seasons to maximize the proration of cap dollars beyond what is available via a restructure. The infrastructure for this is the same that is used for OTC’s Contract Constructor, so you will see some familiarity between the two.
• You may now add any player from another team by using the “Add External Player…” autocomplete field, regardless of contract status. If that player is not a free agent, the calculator will assume the player is being acquired by trade, with all contract details for future seasons imported–other than prorated bonuses that remain the liability of the old team. You will also be given the option to renegotiate the existing contract if so desired.
• A bug that prevented users from trading a player after June 1 should now be fixed.
• Franchise and transition tag numbers for certain players have been corrected to account for minimum 20% raises from their prior salaries, as mandated by Article 10, Section 2(a)(i) of the CBA.
• The age of each player for each given season is now provided, alongside the number of accrued seasons he is projected to have by the beginning of that season.

We hope this upgrade will provide a better experience for you as we continue to assist you with understanding the operations of NFL contracts and the salary cap. As we have been busy with other tasks, both within and outside OTC, internal testing has been limited, and we may have missed some other bugs in the process. If you see any such bugs, or have other suggestions on how to improve the calculator further, please use OTC’s Technical Support contact form, or reach out to me on Twitter at @nickkorte.

Not that the first Monday after the draft has passed, it’s time take a look at where OTC’s projection for the 2022 compensatory picks stand. If you have any questions about how this list is generated, please take a look at the cancellation charts for all 32 teams here, and also refer to OTC’s compensatory formula page as a reference for where certain contracts are ranked.

Per Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal:

These corrections by the NFL Management Council mean that what I thought was my biggest miss in projecting the 2021 compensatory picks ended up being a correct projection on my part. I had thought the value of Damiere Byrd’s contract would not qualify against the Patriots, and that it would thus not cost them an additional comp pick on top of the 3rd and 4th rounders they had been awarded without any controversy for the departures of Tom Brady and Kyle Van Noy (the latter of who’s already back on the Patriots). The initial release of the comp picks by the NFL Management Council said otherwise, but now they have backtracked.

There are two possible reasons for this. One could have been that the qualification cutoff just needed to be nudged a little bit higher to disqualify Byrd’s contract, even at $1.9 million APY. However, I believe that is not the case, as it would cause misalignment in the valuation of other comp picks. Specifically, it is because the Patriots are only getting a 5th rounder for Jamie Collins’s departure, and not a 4th as I had projected. That valuation indicates that one thing that I still got wrong was that I had the wrong number of leaguewide players considered in the formula, regularly the most difficult aspect of projecting compensatory picks.

Instead, I am guessing that the NFL Management Council decided not to count the $300,000 in incentives that Byrd earned on the season. Further evidence of this comes from Michael Signora stating that the correction was “to the calculation of average yearly compensation”. Although Appendix V, Section 2(a) states that incentives “that are earned by the player in the first League Year of the contract” will count, my guess is that this was overridden by Paragraph 11, which allows for teams to designate signed unrestricted free agents as “Excluded UFAs” that automatically disqualify the player from qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA). Byrd’s base compensation was for $1.6 million, which fell below the threshold of $1.75 to qualify for Excluded UFA status. However, study into future similar contracts, where the base is below the threshold but adding earned incentives pushes it above, will be needed to verify whether this is the case.

Further evidence that there were miscalculations on the NFL Management Council’s part with regard to APY was an error in where one of the Falcons’ picks were placed. This one is easier to explain. I am guessing that they erroneously counted a $500,000 incentive in De’Vondre Campbell’s contract that would have been awarded had the Cardinals made the playoffs. I had added it in as a way to get Campbell to be placed in the right order, but since the Cardinals did not make the playoffs, clearly that was not earned by Campbell.

The lucky beneficiary of these errors were the Bears. Had the Patriots been properly awarded with a comp pick for Collins’s departure, Chicago’s second 6th rounder would have missed the 32 pick limit. However, the NFLPA was willing to relent on the 32 pick limit, and retain the awarding of that Bears pick.

Changes to my evaluation of the 2021 compensatory picks projection will be made to account for these corrections.

The 2021 league year in the NFL officially starts on Wednesday, March 17. The two day negotiating period of free agency commences on Monday, March 15, and this is the time when we would typically get first knowledge of the largest contracts to be signed. With those contracts signed come the generation of compensatory picks for the 2021 NFL Draft, thus it’s time to take a look at what comp pick potential teams might be looking at.

Buffalo Bills

With Matt Milano recently extended, the only other pending UFA that might see serious action on the comp pick list would be Daryl Williams, who got his career back on track in Buffalo at right tackle. With some money to spend on a solid team with Super Bowl aspirations, the time to strike on signing the right CFA may be now. Potential: Very Low

Miami Dolphins

Ted Karras played every single snap at center on a 1-year deal. Davon Godchaux is a young interior defensive lineman that could see a comp pick worthy deal. Finally, there’s Ryan Fitzpatrick, one of the most popular veteran quarterbacks out there that even on a backup salary could be in consideration. But with only 13 pending UFAs and a team still being shaped for Brian Flores, more work on the free agent market could be in order. Potential: Low

New England Patriots

The Patriots have 20 total pending UFAs even after the new extensions to Cam Newton and Justin Bethel. Combine this with a team that regularly makes an effort to get them, and with previously tagged Joe Thuney not getting tagged again at the top of the list, and that should keep New England on the list somewhere. The only aggravating factors might be having the lowest payroll in the league to improve a roster on a team that missed the playoffs for the first time in ages. Potential: High

New York Jets

There are not many notable potential CFAs on the Jets’ list of pending UFAs (Breshad Perriman? Neville Hewitt?), and like their division rival Patriots, they are just below them with money to spend on a worse roster. I would expect the Jets to be one of the big teams to generate comp picks for other teams than for themselves. Potential: Very Low

Baltimore Ravens

It looks to be typical comp picks season in Baltimore once again for the 2022 NFL Draft. They’re down to only 12 pending UFAs, but they include two previously tagged edge rushers in Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon, a key reserve at the same position in Tyus Bowser, starting center Matt Skura, complementary wide receiver Willie Snead, and the perennially underrated Derek Wolfe. Potential: Very High

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals did not use a tag on either William Jackson III or Carl Lawson, and both players should be in high demand on the market. Combine this with 22 pending UFAs and a franchise that typically is not known for spending, we should expect the Bengals to break their usual drought of earning comp picks this time around. Potential: Very High

Cleveland Browns

Most of Cleveland’s pending UFAs of note that were big contributors last season are on the older side (Olivier Vernon, Malcolm Smith, Terrance Mitchell, Andrew Sendejo), which may depress their comp pick potential. Rashard Higgins is an intriguing option at wide receiver for teams should he not re-sign with the Browns. Like the Bills, a recent playoff team like the Browns might be better suited to make a push for the right CFAs right now. Potential: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers just emerged from a deep cap crunch, and one consequence is that they did not use any tag on possibly worthy players like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Bud Dupree. Both should expect good deals elsewhere if they leave Pittsburgh. But it doesn’t end there: Alejandro Villanueva, Matt Feiler, Mike Hilton, and Cameron Sutton are also key contributors hitting the market. The Steelers should be very competitive with the rival Ravens and Bengals in collecting comp picks for 2022. Potential: Very High

Houston Texans

Will Fuller is the only notable potential CFA of note for Houston this year, and given a new regime at both GM and head coach that’s in place, they may want to shape the roster to their own liking with external CFAs from teams they are familiar with. Potential: Very Low

Indianapolis Colts

Long time leading wide receiver TY Hilton leads this list, followed by other long time familiar names in the NFL like Justin Houston, Xavier Rhodes, and Denico Autry. The downside is that all of them are over 30. Younger names that teams might take a shot on are Marlon Mack and Malik Hooker, both recovering from injuries, and Jacoby Brissett could also be good for a high level backup contract that’s comp pick worthy. The Colts have some money to spend but they may also have room to gain some comp picks at the same time. Potential: Moderate

Jacksonville Jaguars

With Urban Meyer now in charge, the Jaguars having oodles of both cash and cap to spend, and with Keelan Cole leading a very unimpressive list of pending UFAs, look for the Jaguars to extend their league leading comp pick drought from 11 drafts to 12. Potential: Very Low

Tennessee Titans

Notable Titans hitting the free agency market are Jonnu Smith, Jayon Brown, Corey Davis, Desmond King, and DaQuan Jones, with the eternally curious contractual case of Jadeveon Clowney on the table as well. Last offseason, the Titans broke their long drought of comp picks with quality, focusing on one 3rd rounder for letting Jack Conklin depart, while extending other candidates in Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. This time around, I’d expect more quantity coming Tennessee’s way. Potential: High

Denver Broncos

With Justin Simmons once again tagged, likely on the path to a long term extension, Shelby Harris is the only other pending UFA of note, and his value on the market has high variance to it at that. The Broncos’ needs in free agency are very targeted (cornerback, high level backup quarterback), but especially if they extend Harris this may be a good year for new GM George Paton to acquire more CFA talent if the price is right for now, laying the path for comp picks later. Potential: Low

Kansas City Chiefs

On the one hand, the Chiefs have a handful of intriguing potential CFAs that could similar intrigue teams. Bashaud Breeland, Austin Reiter, Demarcus Robinson, and Daniel Sorensen are among them, and never discount Sammy Watkins getting another big deal based on his high draft pedigree. On the other hand, their offensive line needs a ton of help, as Super Bowl LV demonstrated, and was confirmed with the recent cuts of long time tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, and they may have no choice but participate a little in the CFA market in order to fix it. Potential: Moderate

Las Vegas Raiders

Jon Gruden has never been shy in pursuing CFAs–even when they regularly don’t work out–nor has he been shy in tampering with them, either. With an offensive line decimated by recent cuts, a defense still very much struggling, and Nelson Agholor the only possible CFA of note, I expect Gruden to continue his modus operandi of being a league leader in signing CFAs, creating comp picks for other teams instead of the Raiders. Potential: Very Low

Los Angeles Chargers

Hunter Henry did not receive another tag, and thus he’ll be a leading tight end on the free agent market for teams to target. Melvin Ingram turns 32 but should also still have demand at edge rusher, too. Other players that could get comp pick worthy interest include Michael Davis, Rayshawn Jenkins, Denzel Perryman, and a trio of starting offensive linemen in Sam Tevi, Forrest Lamp, and Dan Feeney. However, given those last three pending departures, of which Trai Turner may soon join them, the Chargers’ comp pick potential could be hampered by the necessity to sign CFA offensive linemen. Potential: Moderate

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys prioritize keeping their own homegrown players–like Dak Prescott–over signing external veterans, and this practice naturally leads them to earn comp picks. This offseason should be no different, with players like Jourdan Lewis, Chidobe Awuzie, Xavier Woods, and Tyrone Crawford hitting the market, with Andy Dalton still likely good for a high backup QB salary that would be comp pick worthy. Potential: High

New York Giants

With Leonard Williams tagged again, the defensive lineman that will likely get the most attention in free agency will be Dalvin Tomlinson. Kyler Fackrell could also get some attention after playing out a one year deal in New York, while Wayne Gallman caught some eyes in relief of Saquon Barkley in 2020. An aggravating factor is that there’s not many other notable CFAs beyond this trio, but a mitigating factor is that the Giants don’t have a lot of cap space to work with to pursue external CFAs. Potential: Moderate

Philadelphia Eagles

Never count out Howie Roseman in the quest for comp picks, but this looks like a weak year for him to pursue them for Philadelphia. Jalen Mills is the only Eagle that looks to sign a comp pick worthy contract on a low list of 12 pending UFAs. However, with the Eagles holding a high payroll and low cap space, that might end up naturally creating a comp pick or two for them. Potential: Low

Washington Football Team

The two names to watch here would be Ronald Darby, who may finally get his chance to earn a lucrative long term deal, and Ryan Kerrigan, long a reliable edge rusher but no longer has a path to starting in DC with Chase Young and Montez Sweat now in town. However, Ron Rivera does have cash to spend to improve the team if he so chooses, so there is reasonable doubt as to whether he’ll pursue the path of comp picks down the road, or CFA help right now Potential: Moderate

Chicago Bears

The Bears have 20 pending UFAs, but there’s only two of them that might be comp pick worthy: defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris, and of course Mitch Trubisky, even if it’s only on a backup contract. If the Bears do get comp picks, it’ll likely be similar to last offseason, with more quantity than quality, getting 6th or 7th rounders on the lower end of the list. Potential: Low

Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay was not tagged by the Lions, making him perhaps the most desired wide receiver that will become a UFA. Romeo Okwara and Marvin Jones round out a list of 18 total pending UFAs. The Lions typically do not prioritize comp picks, but on one hand there is a new GM in Brad Holmes in the building, and like many teams the Lions are on the cap brink. But on the other hand, Holmes may want to immediately craft his new roster to his liking, starting with free agency. If the Lions do pursue comp picks, the priority will likely be focusing on preserving a 3rd rounder for Golladay’s departure. Potential: Moderate

Green Bay Packers

It looks like business as usual for generating comp picks for Green Bay. Corey Linsley and Aaron Jones will be the two leading names to watch here, and despite his playoff struggles Kevin King could get a comp pick worthy deal as well. Combine their history with a payroll that’s already been dedicated to the players they’ve committed to keep, and it would be a surprise if we don’t see the Packers on the final comp pick list. Potential: Very High

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ quantity of pending UFAs is low at 11, but they do have some quality to work with here. That starts with Anthony Harris, who will not be tagged again, and fellow defenders in Eric Wilson and Jaleel Johnson. The question will be whether Minnesota has to hold off on signing CFAs of their own to avoid canceling any of these possible departures. Potential: Moderate

Atlanta Falcons

Alex Mack turns 36, but may still have plenty of desire for teams to continue his career at center. Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee, and Sharrod Neasman will be a trio of safeties that could also pique attention elsewhere. With other peripheral names like Darqueze Dennard or Charles Harris on the table, there’s no one that stands out for the Falcons but their pending UFA slate is not desolate, either. Potential: Moderate

Carolina Panthers

There’s not a lot of intriguing names slated to leave Charlotte: Curtis Samuel and Mike Davis might be the only headliners. Perhaps Russell Okung can still find attention at a desirable position at tackle. Also working against the Panthers getting comp picks is having plenty of money to spend on a team that still needs improvement. Potential: Low

New Orleans Saints

The Saints surprisingly tagged Marcus Williams, but even with him off the market they have lots of other pending UFAs that will draw interest. They include Trey Hendrickson, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, and Jameis Winston. Combine this with one of the most nightmarish cap situations the NFL has seen in years, and it may no longer be prudent to regularly note that the Saints historically don’t care about comp picks. Potential: Very High

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs tagged Chris Godwin, and extended Lavonte David, so those moves, though obviously a net positive for the franchise, depressed their comp pick potential for 2022. But they still have Shaq Barrett to try to also extend before he’d hit the market as a very desirable edge rusher. Other players with contracts expiring are Ndamukong Suh, Leonard Fournette, and while it would seem highly unlikely that Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Brown would play elsewhere, they also are without new contracts. Conclude this with a total of 23 pending UFAs, and even if the Bucs succeed in extending Barrett, they should still be in play for comp picks. Potential: Moderate

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are tied for the lead with a division rival with pending UFAs at 26. That alone will put them in play for some form of comp picks. Most of them won’t generate such picks, but there’s enough notable names at the top (Haason Reddick, Patrick Peterson, Kelvin Beachum, De’Vondre Campbell, Dre Kirkpatrick) that they could be in good shape even if they decide to pursue external CFAs to sign. Potential: High

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are the inverse of all of their division rivals: low in quantity (11 pending UFAs) but high in quality (John Johnson, Leonard Floyd, Troy Hill, Austin Blythe, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett Samson Ebukam). Combine this with their payroll very locked in on their top players, and their draft capital depleted from acquiring such players, and the Rams will likely appreciate some high comp picks to help fill that void. Potential: Very High

San Francisco 49ers

And it’s the 49ers that are the aforementioned tie with the Cardinals in leading in pending UFAs. And there’s some good names set to hit the market, too: Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, Kerry Hyder, Kendrick Bourne, Kyle Juszczyk, Jaquiski Tartt, and Jason Verrett. Like the Cardinals, the 49ers should have no problem earning comp picks even if they sign external CFAs to replace some of them. Potential: Very High

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks also have a high number of pending UFAs at 21, and like the 49ers and Cardinals there are names that could get attention on the market at the top. They include Shaquill Griffin, Chris Carson, David Moore, Quinton Dunbar, and perhaps most intriguing is the very long tenured KJ Wright. Seattle is not afraid of signing CFAs from other teams if they feel they need them, but they also have a long history of prioritizing comp picks. Potential: High