With a few weeks of snap counts in the books for the 2019 regular season, let’s take a look at where the 2020 compensatory picks projection stands.

First, let’s start with identifying some changes from last May that I feel will be permanent.

• The Cardinals cut Kevin White, which was bad for the Bears, as that caused the Bears to lose their one and only projected comp pick, a fourth rounder for Adrian Amos. The Bears’ league leading active drought of comp picks is likely to go from ten to eleven drafts.
• The Cardinals caused two teams to fall completely off the 2020 comp pick list, by cutting Darius Philon after an arrest for threatening to shoot a woman outside a strip club. That was bad news for the Chargers, as this transaction caused them to lose their 4th round comp pick for Tyrell Williams.
• The Chargers weren’t the only AFC West team to leave the list: after the Colts first placed Spencer Ware on reserve/PUP, then, at Ware’s request, released him from that list, the Chiefs lost their 4th round comp pick for Steven Nelson. Unlike with the Chargers, however, there’s a faint hope that the Chiefs’ pick could come back, as explained below.
• The 49ers cut Jordan Matthews, and that caused the Eagles to lose their 4th round comp pick for Golden Tate.
• The Lions cut CJ Anderson, resulting in the loss of a 4th round comp pick for Lamarcus Joyner.
• However, there was one transaction that did cause a team to gain a comp pick. That was when Dallas cut George Iloka, opening up a 5th rounder to the Cowboys for losing Cole Beasley.

All of these losses of mid round comp picks have created a situation not seen since 2013: few, if any comp picks not being awarded due to missing the 32 pick limit. This is good news for teams like Denver, Minnesota, and the New York Giants who were previously at risk for missing out on 7th rounders due to that limit. As I’ll explain below, as it stands now there are 33 eligible comp picks, and as I see it, that number may fall to exactly 32, opening the way for Tampa Bay to be awarded with the rare net value 7th rounder for losing and gaining the same number of CFAs, but with the ones lost being valued significantly higher.

Meanwhile, this year there has been an unusual amount of movement on the compensatory picks board that I believe is largely caused to injuries to key players, most but not all of whom are compensatory free agents. Most of these changes I do not expect to linger as the players in question return to full health, but just in case they don’t, it’s at least worthwhile to study some of these changes that could stick.

For this update, I’ll do something different by displaying two tables. The first one is where the projections stand right now, after Week 3. The second one is an injury-adjusted table that attempts to take into account when some of those injured players might come back, by adjusting their snap counts accordingly.

Here are the changes that I do not necessarily expect to stay, and why:

• Philadelphia’s 3rd rounder for Nick Foles is now one of the lowest 3rd rounders instead of the highest due to his broken clavicle. However, his contract is of so high value that I do not forecast it leaving the 3rd round. If reports that Foles could return by Week 11 hold up, the pick for Foles should fall somewhere in the middle of the other 3rd round comp picks.
• CJ Mosley’s groin injury from Week 1 has demoted his comp pick value to Baltimore from the 3rd to the 4th round. While it’s unclear when Mosley will return, I forecast that he would need to miss 13 games–an amount that feels unlikely–in order for that demotion to stick.
• Similarly, Miami’s comp pick for Ja’Wuan James has been demoted to a 4th rounder due to a knee injury he suffered early in Week 1. Unlike with Mosley, there’s a higher change that this demotion could stick. My forecasting suggests that missing six games–of which James has done half of so far–could be enough to keep his contract valued in the 4th round.
• Denver’s bad luck with injury doesn’t end with James: Bryce Callahan has also been indefinitely sidelined due to lingering recovery from his foot injury from the prior season. The only possible faint positive for the Broncos there is that if Callahan were to miss 10 or more games, his contract may fall in value to a 6th rounder, meaning that Denver would get a 5th for Billy Turner instead of a 6th for Shaq Barrett.
• Although Trevor Siemian and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have been placed on IR, it appears that even missing almost all of the season will not lower their contract values to the point that they would not qualify for the compensatory formula.
• The biggest surprise has been Jordan Devey, on a minimum salary benefit contract, emerging as a starter with the Raiders. This has happened due to a combination of injuries suffered by Gabe Jackson and Denzelle Good, as well as a two game suspension of Richie Incognito. This is unexpected good news for the Chiefs, as if Devey’s qualification sticks, it would reopen their 4th round comp pick for Steven Nelson that they lost when the Colts cut Ware. However, I forecast that in order for that stick, Devey would need to start at least 13 games, something that strikes me as unlikely at this point.

There are a couple other observations to make. One is that Minnesota’s 3rd rounder for Sheldon Richardson is very much on the cusp of falling to a 4th rounder, as defensive linemen tend to not get as many snaps as other positions. Vikings fans should want Richardson to stay healthy and play as much as possible.

The other is that the Texans may pick up a second 3rd round comp pick that would be for Kareem Jackson, instead of a 7th rounder for Kendall Lamm. The reason for this is that Bradley Roby has barely fallen to the 4th round in value, thus avoiding his contract canceling out Jackson’s. However, it’s a very narrow needle being threaded between these two players, and should Roby’s contract inch back up to the 3rd round, the Texans would revert back to a 7th for Lamm instead of a 3rd Jackson. Texans fans should want Jackson to remain healthy and playing nearly all snaps in Denver, as he has done so thus far.

Finally, there are still some opportunities for teams to pick up comp picks if they cut certain players before Week 10:

• The removal of Matthews from the Eagles’ CFAs lost column means that Philadelphia must now cut both Andrew Sendejo and LJ Fort to regain their 4th rounders for Tate and Jordan Hicks. However, with Sendejo logging a solid 41.6% of offensive snaps so far, and Fort being a leading special teams player, Howie Roseman may consider their contributions now greater than 4th round comp picks later.
• Steelers fans were not happy with Donte Moncrief’s performance early in the season, and the team heard that loud and clear as he was benched last week. If Pittsburgh cuts Moncrief before Week 10, they open up a 7th rounder for Fort–and also further protect their 3rd rounder for Le’Veon Bell should the Eagles cut Fort for their own comp pick reasons as described above.
• Lastly, the Bucs still have the ability to turn their net value 7th into a 3rd for Kwon Alexander if they cut one of their CFAs before Week 10. The most likely candidate would be Deone Bucannon, who has been strictly a special teamer in Tampa Bay thus far.