2018 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/9/2017)

With the league offices closing for today, the second Tuesday after the 2017 NFL Draft, it also closes out the addition of compensatory free agents (CFAs) into the formula for the 2018 NFL Draft.  With only CFA subtractions now possible due to cuts or too low of a salary, it’s time to take a look at the list that’s emerged.

TeamRoundCompensated Free AgentAPY
ARI3Calais Campbell$15,000,000
HOU3A.J. Bouye$13,500,000
DEN3Russell Okung$13,250,000
CIN3Kevin Zeitler$12,000,000
BAL3Ricky Wagner$9,500,000
GB3TJ Lang$9,500,000
NYG4Johnathan Hankins$9,000,000
DAL4Ronald Leary$8,925,000
NE4Jabaal Sheard$8,500,000
ARI4Tony Jefferson$8,500,000
CIN5Andrew Whitworth$11,250,000
NE5Martellus Bennett$6,750,000
DAL5Barry Church$6,500,000
OAK5Menelik Watson$6,000,000
PIT5Lawrence Timmons$5,975,000
DAL5Brandon Carr$5,750,000
GB5JC Tretter$5,583,333
KC5Nick Foles$5,500,000
ARI6Marcus Cooper$5,333,333
GB6Jared Cook$5,000,000
DAL6Morris Claiborne$5,000,000
OAK6Latavius Murray$4,900,000
HOU6John Simon$4,500,000
ARI6DJ Swearinger$4,500,000
HOU6Quintin Demps$4,500,000
GB6Eddie Lacy$3,865,000
OAK6DJ Hayden$3,500,000
MIN6Adrian Peterson$3,500,000
OAK6Nate Allen$3,400,000
MIN6Andre Smith$3,050,000
LAC7Manti Te’o$2,500,000
CIN7Margus Hunt$2,050,000
Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded
CIN7Karlos Dansby$2,000,000
TB7Bradley McDougald$2,000,000
ATL7Tom Compton$1,850,000
NYG7Marshall Newhouse$1,550,000
NYG7Coty Sensabaugh$1,300,000
MIN7Audie Cole$1,300,000
ATL7Eric Weems$1,300,000
BAL7Vladimir Ducasse$1,166,667
HOU7Don Jones$1,100,000

The quality of 2018 compensatory picks looks to be reduced compared to 2017.  There were eleven 3rd round picks and six 4th round picks awarded in 2017.  For 2018, OTC’s formula is currently projecting six 3rd round picks and four 4th round picks.  The reason why is this year, teams were more willing to cancel out high CFAs last offseason as opposed to this time around.  Last year, Denver was the only team to cancel out a 3rd round comp pick (in a move they may not have fully intended to do), and only three 4th round comp picks were canceled out.  This year, six teams elected to cancel out seven possible 3rd round comp picks alone: Buffalo (Stephon Gilmore), New England (Logan Ryan), Washington (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon), Detroit (Riley Reiff), Minnesota (Matt Kalil), and Tampa Bay (Mike Glennon). Denver may add to that number as well (more on that later).

However, any quality reduced has been replaced with an increase in quantity: as it stands now, there are 41 eligible compensatory picks, one shy of the all time record of 42 set in 2016. Of course, only 32 picks may actually be awarded, so several teams will see their comp pick haul reduced (and in the case of Tampa Bay and Atlanta, possibly eliminated). In particular, the 6th round looks to be quite bountiful–12 are currently projected to be awarded in 2018, where 2017 saw only 3 awarded.

Notable Cases

As with every year, there will be some picks in which there will be a question as to whether or not they will be awarded.  The one pick I am the most concerned and skeptical about by far is the 6th round comp pick projected to the Vikings for Adrian Peterson.  The reason I am concerned and skeptical is that he became a UFA in 2017 only by renegotiating his contract.  That renegotiation allowed the Vikings to shorten it via a team option on 2017, one that as we know they declined.  Because (as usual) the Saints had no hope in gaining 2018 compensatory picks, they had nothing to lose in signing Peterson before May 9.  The question is whether this transaction will be to the benefit of the Vikings.

I’ve gone back and forth in my mind on whether to allow Peterson to qualify as a CFA in the program.  I’ve decided to allow it so I can illustrate the possibility of what the Vikings would get for Peterson if he does qualify.  But please beware that my confidence level is low in that guess, and I could very easily be wrong about that guess.

Names To Watch In Training Camp

For the next few months, the most important thing to watch for with regards to 2017 compensatory picks is if any CFAs fail to make their team’s roster.  If any CFA is permanently cut from their team’s roster before Week 10, they will not qualify for the compensatory formula.  Using a little intuition, there are some teams that could feasibly improve their standing in 2018 compensatory picks if they cut certain players, and other teams that need to hope that certain teams don’t cut some of their former players.

Last year, the most extreme example of that was the New York Jets cutting Jarvis Jenkins just before the Week 10 deadline. That allowed the team to pick up a 3rd round comp pick for Damon Harrison.  The Jets then turned that pick into three players thanks to draft day tradedowns. Those three players were Chad Hansen, Jeremy Clark, and Derrick Jones. If any of those players become contributors, Jets fans can thank Mike Maccagnan’s sharp decision to cut Jenkins at just the right time.

Teams With CFAs Signed
  • Buffalo: They loaded up on low-level CFAs to give them a lost/gained difference of -2–five CFAs lost, seven CFAs gained.  Five of those seven signed CFAs (Stephen Hauschka, Patrick DiMarco, Andre Holmes, Vladimir Ducasse and Ryan Harris) are currently projected to be valued as 7th rounders in the compensatory formula.  If the Bills cut three of those five players before Week 10 (thus getting positive in their ratio), they would pick up a 3rd round comp pick for Stephon Gilmore.  If they cut four of the five, they would also pick up a 4th round comp pick for Robert Woods. Only the Bills can decide for themselves if cutting this many veterans is worth picking up draft picks next year. Buffalo could also get some help if former Bills Justin Hunter, Robert Blanton, and EJ Manuel play a high enough number of non-special teams snaps to qualify for the compensatory formula. However, that’s not a hope they should place in high regard since it’s out of their control.
  • Pittsburgh: The Steelers signed Coty Sensabaugh to a two-year, $1.3 million dollar deal. If he does not work out for Pittsburgh–similar to how he did not work out for the Los Angeles Rams last year as a CFA acquisition–cutting him would open up a 5th round comp pick for Markus Wheaton. Pittsburgh also should be aware that they signed two players (Justin Huntner and Knile Davis) that are currently projected to not qualify for the 2018 compensatory formula.  However, if they sustain a high enough snap count, there is a chance that one of them could cancel out their 5th round comp pick for Lawrence Timmons. Again, that’s a decision only the Steelers can make for themselves.
  • NY Giants: They signed 3 CFAs that are currently projected to not qualify. They are Shaun Draughn, Geno Smith, and Valentino Blake. If all three were to qualify, it would cancel out their 4th round comp pick for Johnathan Hankins. However, that strikes me as a very long shot. The only way those long odds might be shortened is if, as mentioned above, the Steelers cut Coty Sensabaugh to reduce the number of CFAs lost for the Giants.
  • Minnesota: They could see their current projected 6th round comp pick for Andre Smith demoted to a 7th if he does not play enough snaps for the Bengals. If that happens, then the 7th round comp pick that would open up for Jeff Locke might not make the 32-pick limit.  They would likely insure to get some pick for Smith if they cut Case Keenum before Week 10.
Teams With CFAs Lost
  • Denver: It could be bad deja vu for the Broncos regarding a comp pick involving Russell Okung.  This is because although Ronald Leary is currently projected as a 4th round value, if he logs a very high number of snap counts (as starting offensive linemen tend to do), he could be upgraded to a 3rd rounder. If that happens, it mandates that Leary would cancel out Okung, and the Broncos would see their 3rd round comp pick for Okung demoted to a 7th rounder for Dekoda Watson that may not make the 32-pick limit. To be clear, Leary playing all snaps at a high level is preferable to a late 3rd round pick, and I say that as a Broncos fan. However, my fellow Broncos fans should be aware that their lone comp pick projection has low confidence attached to it.
  • Kansas City: Unless Carson Wentz suffers a serious injury, Chiefs fans should be prepared to see their projected 5th round comp pick for Nick Foles demoted to a 6th, as backup quarterbacks log few, if any, snaps.  There is also a long shot risk that Gavin Escobar could cancel out Foles if he qualifies, but that would likely require a similar serious injury to Travis Kelce.
  • LA Chargers: If either Danny Woodhead or Manti Te’o are cut before Week 10, the Chargers would lose a 7th round comp pick for Te’o. However, that pick is so late that Tom Telesco shouldn’t sweat over it.

An Adjustment To The Program

After reviewing data that I entered from the 2016 season, it is my belief that I erroneously added around 150 more players to the leaguewide portion of the formula than I should have.  Once I culled those players, it’s now my guess that 1922 players represented the total of players of which CFAs were judged against for the 2017 compensatory formula.  I am using this number to project 2018 compensatory picks for now, but of course the actual number will be different depending on how many players end the 2017 regular season on an active roster or injured reserve.

  • QOTSA1

    Wouldn’t the Packers be more likely to get a pick for Micah Hyde than Jared Cook?

    • Nick

      It depends on the snap counts for Hyde, JC Tretter, and Cook. One of them has to be canceled out by Martellus Bennett, and it’ll be whoever the formula ranks the highest. However, the end result is likely going to be the same or close to the same no matter who Bennett eventually cancels out.

      And on an off topic note, I highly approve of your username. Easily a top 5 band of mine!

      • QOTSA1

        Thanks for the clarification. m/>.<m/

  • myeagles_need a bunch

    With the salary cap as well as slotted draft values, the compensatory pick system is rubbish. The protocol is sheer bunk.

    They need to eliminate this nonsense asap.
    A 3rd round pick because you couldn’t / didn’t retain a player? Cut me a break

    • Sensemaker

      I couldn’t disagree more. Not only does it promote parity, it’s also a strategy that allows you some maneuverability in free agency and the draft — even moreso now that the compensatory selections can be traded.

      • myeagles_need a bunch

        It’s silly. The team didn’t earn anything but gets rewarded.

  • Igmond

    Would Jarvis Jones (2Mil) be a closer offset to Coty Sensabaugh (1.3Mil) instead of Wheaton (5Mil)? Not sure how the offset is calculated. Thanks.

    • Nick

      Jones is first offset by the signing of Tyson Alualu. This then leaves no choice but for Sensabaugh to cancel out Wheaton.

  • Jim

    It’s going to be interesting to see what Buffalo does with those cheap FA’s they signed possibly offsetting a 3rd and 4th rd comp picks. Ryan Davis and Vlad Ducasse could easily be cut in camp or before week 10, but the other guys all have multiple year deals with a decent amount of guaranteed money. As you probably know, they fired their GM (Whaley) right after the draft, and hired a another guy from Carolina (Beane).

    The big question is, who had more influence over those FA signings? The new incoming HC Sean McDermott or outgoing GM Whaley? If they were Whaley’s signings, there’s a good chance you can see them eat the guaranteed money for the 3rd rd (and maybe 4th rd as well) pick. If they were signed under McDermott’s influence, it seems unlikely they would give up on those guys half way through the first season.

    • Sensemaker

      Bills are as Bills do.

  • Lord Harry Latts

    The Pats just used a May 9th tender on Blount. Can you guys explain that, since it contradicts the first paragraph ?

  • Joe Bl

    Wouldn’t Cordarelle Patterson bring one for the Vikings or are they projecting that he wont have enough snaps to support one.