Each offseason a number of the multi-year contracts signed by free agents the previous offseason are terminated after just one season. These contracts may be terminated prematurely for a variety of reasons: disappointing performance, injury, team salary cap situation, etc. These factors are, for the most part, unpredictable. However, we can use Expected Contract Value […]
I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment. Defensive Lineman: Ndamukong Suh Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment 2015 $15,000 […]
As the contract details from the recent signings are reported, I will use Expected Contract Value to analyze the deals. Doing so will allow for meaningful valuation of the contracts, enabling useful comparison between, for example, Maclin v. Cobb, Maxwell v. Jackson, Suh v. Watt, etc. However, the numbers for most of the newly-signed contracts […]
2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC East As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the […]
Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics” Part 2: Inputs & Outputs Part 3: Contract Comparison In addition to enabling the valuation of a contract from the perspective of the amount of money that the player can expect to earn, Expected Contract Value also enables teams […]
Estimated 2015 Cap Space: $17.5M ($140M cap limit)Roster Overview Players Under Contract: 60 Pro Bowlers: 5 Unrestricted Free Agents: 7(4 with 50%+ playtime) Draft Selection: 20 Salary Cap Breakdown Free Agents to Re-sign Retaining wide receiver Jeremy Maclin should be a priority on the offseason to-do list. If Maclin walks away in free agency it would […]
I decided to fool around with my pass rusher rankings the other night and thought it might make an interesting post as we wind down the season. The way I try to look at pass rushers is a bit different so I’ll explain the methodology using the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who rates as my most […]