Recently I received a number of questions regarding the Cardinals options with QB Kyler Murray, who was recently placed on IR, next season to see if Arizona would or would not consider moving on from him. Murray has struggled to stay healthy the last four years and has a 16-25 record over that stretch with him as starter and it may be time for the two sides to look for a fresh start.

Murray signed a somewhat controversial contract with Arizona in 2022 that made him one of the highest paid players in the NFL but included one of the most bizarre clauses in recent NFL history that would void his guarantees if he did not complete a specified amount of “independent study” hours related to game preparation. Apparently, this was in reference to concerns over video game playing getting in the way of game preparation. The clause came under such public ridicule that the Cardinals almost had to immediately remove the clause from the contract.

Despite the Cardinals showing some concerns with Murray as a franchise QB they went all in on the guarantee structure of the contract. Murray received injury protection for the first three new years of the contract and had early vesting dates on each of those salaries. In addition Murray received a conditional $19.5 million salary guarantee for the fourth year of his five year contract extension which will trigger in March of the prior year. At the time that was seemingly reserved for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but the decision to include it for Murray made the long term guarantee a league wide policy in future contract extensions for QBs.

Murray’s salary cap charge in 2026 will be around $53 million, the 9^th highest number in the NFL. Murray’s salary in 2026 is $42.54 million of which $36.8 million is already fully guaranteed.  His salary is the 11^th highest among QBs in the NFL. If Murray is on the roster on the 5^th day of the league year he will earn $3.035 million of his non-guaranteed salary for 2026 and will also earn the $19.5 million salary guarantee for 2027. That 5^th day trigger would be the deadline for the Cardinals to either release or trade Murray.

The Cardinals have wisely stayed away from restructuring Murray’s contract, but the cost to release him is still high due to the guaranteed salary. If the team releases Murray from his contract then would take on $54.718 million in dead money in 2026, a loss of about $1.5 million in cap room. The Cardinals don’t have salary cap issues so that is certainly a possible outcome. The post June 1 designation does not really change the cap charges much (it only defers $7.2 million to 2027) since the team has stayed away from restructuring the contract for cap relief the last three years and avoided much prorated money.

The Cardinals would need to be sold on Murray as their starter for the next two years if they were to keep him. If they release him next March, the Cardinals would pay $36.8M in cash and $54.718 million on the cap. If they keep him, he fails and then they want to move on in 2027 they would then pay around $62 million in cash and  $80 million on the cap. That makes no sense at all so if there is any hesitation about his floor and ceiling as a starter they can’t keep him and sink that much more room for another losing season.

The best solution for the Cardinals would be a trade, which would only cost $17.92 million on the cap, but the contract numbers make that tricky. As mentioned above, Murray’s salary for next season is the 11^th highest in the NFL and nobody would consider him anywhere near the top 10 in the NFL. In recent years teams have not been as bullish on players like Murray and there is little reason to think they would be interested at these numbers.

Baker Mayfield came off a much stronger season when he signed an extension with the Bucs and he earned $30 million in his first contract year and had a total of $40 million fully guaranteed when he signed that contract. Sam Darnold, coming off a much better year, received $37 million as a free agent from the Seahawks. That was also the guarantee. For Murray we are looking at $42.5 million in salary and $62 million practically guaranteed when the trade would be made.

The question for Arizona is what would the market be if they ate salary in a trade? The best case scenario would be Justin Fields whose contract paid $20 million on the front end and had $30 million guaranteed. The contract was widely panned when signed. The next player would be Daniel Jones who received $14 million for the year. Arizona already owes him $36.8M so paying down $30M would bring the contract down to two years for $49M with about $32M guaranteed. Maybe they could get something if they did that and it would be a positive for them overall with the cap. Anything more than $35 million is not really worth the trouble. They should explore this option in February and see if there is any hope to it.

The  other slim possibility would be to see if he would be willing to rework his contract either for a trade or to remain the starter in Arizona. That would likely require him giving up his salary guarantee for 2027 and maybe some non-guaranteed salary in 2026. I am not sure that makes much sense for either side but if Arizona wants to give it one more shot that would be the way to do it. This would also maximize Murray’s earnings since he likely wont earn anything above the salary guarantee the Cardinals owe him next year since any salary earned from another team would be subject to offsets.

For what it’s worth the Cardinals can not actually release Murray until the start of free agency. So while they may announce it earlier they can’t actually release him so they have time to try to make something happen. Most likely he will be cut on the first day of free agency, but crazy things happen with QBs so it wouldn’t be stunning if the two sides come to some agreement before then.  

The Jets snuck in a few hours before the trade deadline and dramatically remade their team with an eye on the future that will give them significant draft capital following the trades of star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets will pick up a 2026 2nd round pick and 2027 1st round pick from the Cowboys for Williams while adding a 2026 and 2027 1st round pick for Gardner.

Williams was in just the second year of a four year contract extension that he signed with the Jets back in 2023, the final year of Williams’ rookie contract. The Jets paid Williams $40.3 million for 24 games on the contract. He made the Pro Bowl last season and had six sacks. Williams had just 1 sack this year and was reportedly upset with the direction of the Jets franchise. This should have been an easy decision for the Jets as the draft compensation is gigantic for a player who would have likely been unhappy in 2026 and would certainly be looking for a new contract in 2027 as he turns 30. Williams will leave the Jets with $13.24M in dead money this year and $9.8 million in 2026.

Dallas will inherit Williams’ contract which will see them owe him about $8.4 million for the remainder of this season, assuming the Jets did not pick up any of the contract, and $21.75 million next season. Williams will enter the final year of his contract in 2027 where he is owed $25.5 million and he will most certainly look for an extension at that point. This would likely signal the end of Kenny Clark’s tenure next season with Dallas as Clark is also owed over $20 million.

This is an odd trade for Dallas who only received two first round picks for Micah Parsons a far more dominant player than Williams this summer. Dallas currently sits at 3-5-1 and looks like anything but a contender for the playoffs and it is hard to believe that Williams would make a horrible defense turn into a passable one. Dallas looks like a team that had peaked and should be more focused on the future but instead is trying to get a wildcard game this season. At the end of the day they basically traded Parsons for Williams, the gain between and 1st and 2nd rounder in 2026 and whatever the net change is for a 1st round pick swap in 2027. They will save about $55 million between the two players, which is significant, but then its a big wait and see on what Williams will earn on a new contract.

Gardner has signed a massive contract extension with the Jets in mid July that would pay him just over $30 million per year, making him the highest paid corner in NFL history. This was a deal that seemingly was done to send a positive message to the locker room about rewarding good players with contracts rather than fighting over an extension, but always seemed short sighted from the standpoint of the draft value that a player like Gardner would have.

Despite the fact that Gardner is one of the top corners in the NFL, the Jets on paper looked far away from being a contender when they signed him to a new contract. By the time the team would possibly be good Gardner would likely be nearing the last year where he would be expected to be a high level player considering the typical age curves associated with corners. Essentially the Jets would have been paying a high price for a great defender on a bad team and giving up the draft potential associated with trading him. This may signal that the Jets staff had far more hope for Justin Fields this season and with reality setting in the Jets fixed the decision and didn’t worry about the sunk cost of the contract which was around $14.4 million at the point of the trade. Gardner will leave the team with $8.75 million in dead money this year and $11 million next year. He played no games under the new contract years so essentially his salary that he earned this year was paying for a draft pick.

From the Colts perspective this contract makes sense to acquire. The team is a surprising 7-2 and is in a position to make a bold move to help the team. In the past teams have traded two first round picks for players like Gardner and received zero salary compensation prior to an extension so the fact that the Jets prepaid over $14 million was a massive bonus in the Colts favor. From the Colts perspective they just acquired one of the top corners in the NFL on a contract that will average $21.87 million for the next six years. The cost for four years is just $17.76 million a year which is incredibly cheap.

Gardner will count just $625K on the teams cap this year and he will have salaries of $25.25 million in 2026, $24.95 million in 2027, $20.2 million in 2028, and $30.1 million in both 2029 and 2030. The 2026, 2027, and 2028 salaries are all virtually guaranteed but there are zero guarantees on the high salaried years. The Colts have control over how low or high the salary cap charges will be over the life of the contract based on decisions they make related to how to account for option bonuses in the contract.

Though it is still relatively early in the 2025 NFL season it never hurts to look ahead especially if you are a fan of one of the teams in the NFL that has had a worse than expected start. Here is a look at where teams stand in terms of estimated cap room for next year (this includes estimated salary cap carryover and assumes each team will be at 51 players) and how much money the team already has fully guaranteed players on the roster.

The teams in the upper left quadrant are the teams that would look to be in the best shape for next season. These teams have an abundance of cap space already on the books for next year and they have the most flexibility with their roster since their guarantee commitments are relatively low. If you are a good team that is an exciting prospect to continue building and I would argue should put these teams in a position to acquire big salaries at the trade deadline this year if it maximizes their chances for 2025. For the bad teams like the Titans at least it is a shining light in what looks like a bad year.

The upper right quadrant are teams that should be in relatively good cap shape next season but they do already have some big commitments on the team. There are not many teams in this quadrant but most of these will be the teams that likely will consider restructures of their veteran contracts if they want to be more active in free agency next year. The exception are the Jets who have the best cap position in this tier but my feeling is that there will be many questions about why they rushed into some of their big money extensions if things continue to go this bad.

The lower left quadrant are the teams with low guarantees and low cap room. This is also a low volume sector and is basically all teams paying for past salary cap mistakes which have burdened the teams with big cap charges but few remaining guarantees. Many of these teams could be those that just slash the roster next year and deal with the dead money fall out for a season.

Finally we get the bottom right where we get teams that have big commitments to their roster and not a great cap situation next year. For teams like the Bills and Lions who are likely playoff teams they will simply double down on their deals with restructures. For teams like the Giants and Browns it is just a bad look. There is no reason for teams that didn’t looks that good to start with to have put themselves in these positions.

At the start of every season I like to look back and see how much rosters are the same versus the prior year, so here is a quick look at what teams are coming back with similar rosters to last season and which ones are changing things up.

The NFL average was just a tick over 60% this year which really illustrates how much things change every year. The Rams led the NFL with nearly 76% of their roster being return players from their roster one year ago. The Packers were next at just under 75% with the Cardinals, Bengals, and Broncos the other squads with over 70%.

The Patriots had the most turnover with just 48% of their roster coming back this year. The Titans were the other team under 50%. The Vikings at about 51% were the lowest for a playoff team last year. The Steelers and Chargers were the only other playoff teams to come back with under 60%. Six of the top 10 teams in return rate were playoff teams just a year ago.

With the regular season now a few days away and rosters mainly set I wanted to take a look at how the undrafted free agent process played out this year and what we can gather, if anything, from the guarantees they received. These are based on the rosters that were in place on the morning of September 1^st and does not include any changes that may have happened later that day.

First let’s look at the rate of players who are still on their original UDFA contract for their original team. This includes players on IR.

The Vikings lead the NFL with nearly 44% of their UDFA signings making the team this year, which is pretty impressive. The Vikings are a team that is cap strapped in the future and this may have played a role in seeing the need to develop younger cheap players to fill in the depth over the next two seasons. The Bucs come in second with 42% of their undrafted players still there. This is a team that has really shifted to keeping homegrown players over the last few years and developing undrafted talent is one of the ways you do that. Finally the Browns kept 35% of their players. The Browns, like the Vikings, have some future cap troubles.

Dallas and the Raiders had a total whiff, not keeping, at least initially, any of their players. That’s not a great look for either team, but especially Vegas considering they signed 20 players this offseason. Nine teams only kept one player and the Titans being on that list is really surprising to me.

When we bring Practice Squads into account we can see the differences for some teams as they clearly are seeing this as a chance to develop without taking up a roster spot at least at the start of the season.

The Commanders made it a priority to find ways to keep working with a good chunk of their signings this year. A few teams with small undrafted classes show up here along with the Vikings and Bucs. The Jets also had a pretty high rate following a similar path as the Commanders by using the practice squad as a tool to further evaluate their undrafted players.

The Titans are the big lose here with only 22% of the UDFAs on their team. That to me is wild considering how bad the team was last year. The same goes for the Giants with only 29% making the roster in some form.

Now let’s look at what we can learn from the salary guarantee ranges for the undrafted players.

Not surprisingly the big guaranteed salary led to the highest retention rates. Only 23% of the players with $200,000 or more of a guarantee are out of the NFL. The guarantees for a majority of these contracts are offset by practice squad salaries if the players are released so the teams are more likely to keep those players since it is already a sunk cost. When we get between $150K and $200K we only have 32% out of the NFL and that goes up to 37% when looking at a $100K guarantee.

The oddball number is the $75K to $100K group that saw 60% flame out of the NFL already but they did have a rather high percentage make the 53 man. I guess it was a hit or miss category, but this year it is a pretty small sample of players so I would chalk it more up to that.

Once we get below $50K the numbers spike dramatically. Generally, it hovers right around the 60% mark for being out of the NFL and the percentages making the active rosters really drops. That is probably a signal that if you are being offered guarantees in these ranges it is probably best to really focus on the team you sign with. Probably better to sign with a team like the Bucs, Vikings or Commanders, who have a high roster rate, even if the guarantee is slightly less than coming from a team like the Titans. The guarantee doesn’t offer you enough protection to slip to the practice squad.

The Micah Parsons numbers are in via Tom Pelissero and this is indeed an eye popping contract for Parsons. The contract has a base value of $186 million over four added contract years with $136 million guaranteed, $112 million of which is a new money guarantee, and $120 million fully guaranteed at signing. These are by far the biggest numbers for a non-QB and will set new standards for superstars to aim for.

The $46.5 million annual value represents a 13.5% jump over TJ Watt’s $41 million per year which was the prior high water mark. When pegged to the salary cap, this contract makes Parsons the second highest paid defensive player of all time, ranking second to only Michael Strahan’s 1999 contract with the Giants which would be worth $47.6 million per year when inflated for salary cap growth since that time. Parson’s contract also only runs for four years which is one year less than just about any other young player, giving him a better chance at another massive payday than any others in his age group. Parson’s contract represents the second massive edge contract signed this year, with Myles Garrett receiving a raise of 17.6% over Nick Bosa a few months ago. Two jumps like this at the position in one season is generally unheard of, but Ill add some context to that in a bit.  

From a cash flow perspective the numbers for Parsons really stand out once we get to the second new year of the contract. Here is how the new money cash breaks down:

While Parsons does not get the mega payday in 2025, he will earn 12.3% more than Garrett through the 1^st new contract year, 15% more than Watt by year 2, 14.6% more than Watt in year 3 and finally 16.3% more than Garrett over four seasons.

Parsons is the only one of the three players to earn more than $100 million in new guaranteed salary though on a yearly basis that will be less than Watt, who signed a three year contract extension with the Steelers.

The Packers opted for a double option structure and I am assuming the addition of two void years to deal with the salary cap numbers of such a massive contract. Assuming that Parsons has the options picked up, which is highly likely, here is what the salary cap breakdown and dead money looks like with the contract.

For the most part the salary cap structure works strongly in Parson’s favor. The dead money in the first four years of the contract is so high that it makes it difficult to release him if he fails to perform up to standards. From a practical standpoint that means he will earn every penny of his $120 million injury guarantee. While the Packers could try to avoid the full salary in 2028 via threatening a post June 1 release (it would be $36M in dead money in 2028 and $44.7M in 2029) that would also require them to carry Parsons at a $64M cap charge that year until June. While the salary cap is increasing that would still be a giant number to handle. So, at the very least, he should earn more than just the guaranteed portion even if not the full amount through 2028.

If he continues to play well the timing also works out great for him. In 2028, Jordan Love carries a $75.8 million cap charge and will be extension eligible. Depending on the timing of the extension Parson’s should be a prime candidate for a restructured deal which will only increase his 2029 salary cap charge and dead money if cut. That immediately should move him into the category of likely extension candidate in 2029.

I know the question many have is why would Green Bay be so eager to get a deal like this done while Dallas couldn’t do it? While there are probably other factors involving Dallas, from the Packers perspective it comes down to the way they likely internally value the contract. While I am valuing this contract as a $46.5 million contract extension, and that is how Parsons certainly views it, the Packers are viewing this as a new five year contract worth $210 million, or $42 million a season.

Teams that trade for players view the old money in a contract as different than existing teams. They see this as an early signing in free agency, basically the same as signing a tagged player to a new contract and giving two first rounders in return. They don’t have an prior investment in the player and view it all as a new beginning. This is a major reason why we see so many players quickly sign new deals post trade, often making them the highest paid player at a position.  From the Packers perspective here is how the Parsons deal lines up against Watt and Garrett.

You can see in this situation how closely the overall numbers for Parsons line up with the new money for Watt and Garrett. Essentially, they see this as how they would have to negotiate with a free agent to get him to sign a top market contract at EDGE. That makes the gigantic raise they gave Parsons from a new money perspective justifiable and an easy decision to make.

This, of course, has zero bearing on Parsons and how he sees the deal. From his perspective he got the massive raise he wanted. The question becomes when the next big EDGE player comes up. Often traded players that sign these kind of contracts block the market in large part because other teams fight back on the valuation of the deal. That will be interesting to see when player’s like that come up for a new contract.

This is an avenue for agents to exploit when representing superstar players, typically under rookie contracts though it can apply to veteran deals as well. The hard part is that the original team holds all of the cards in these situations. The facts were that Parsons was under contract to the Cowboys and there could be heavy fines and salary loss if he refused to play. In addition, Dallas held the rights to tag Parsons for the next two years if they could not come to an agreement. For whatever reason Parsons side was able to manipulate the situation in a way few others have been able to do and put themselves in a spot where they could do a deal with an outside team that was going to be willing to listen to a massive number proposition. Will others do the same?  Only time will tell.

Rarely in the NFL are there stunning events. Today was one of those rare days as the Dallas Cowboys traded EDGE rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers for two first round picks after months of bickering over a contract extension. Never in a million years would I have expected this to happen. The way this dragged out was basically the same as every other annual holdout/hold in we see in Dallas and every time in ends with an extension and a number of people saying “if they had just done this sooner they would have saved millions”. They certainly saved millions today but lost a superstar player in the process.

I am not sure what really drove this trade. If you were running the team and ever thought that this would be the end game, the trade should have occurred either during the draft or by the start of training camp. To have this kind of situation drag out all camp long and then right before the start of the season trade the player is kind of crazy. It sends a bad message to the other players on the team at a time they should be really locked in on getting ready for week 1. It’s demoralizing.

This whole saga feels like Jerry Jones was upset over some contracts that have gone sideways for him the last few years. Bad outcomes on contracts happen all the time. You have to ask yourself if the process of extending was bad or you just landed some bad luck with injuries. In the case of Dallas it is more the latter than the former. Parsons agency did make a few public statements this year which did poke at the Cowboys decision making. These were not made by Parson’s specific agent but they basically took a deserved victory lap for the way they manipulated the Dak Prescott negotiations to get two massive contracts for Prescott which have not been a good ROI for Dallas. Maybe that played a role here that Jones needed to get one over on the agents because it is hard to see the logic here. Jones made some comments about valuing the run which is nonsense. If that was the case they never would have drafted Parsons in the first place nor would they have engaged in extension talks.

The money Parsons will make in Green Bay is gigantic. His $47 million year extension is massive. It is a near 15% raise in annual value over TJ Watt and even prior to Watt’s contract the money at the position exploded with Myles Garrett landing a $40 million per year extension a few months ago. It is very rare to have a season with two major market movers at the same position in the same year but that is what we got with Garrett taking the market to $40 million and Parsons to $47 million.

The Packers probably view the number differently than others due to the fact they had no prior investment and see this more as a five year contract worth around $42 million a year. Others in the NFL may try to make that argument too, but from Parsons perspective it doesn’t make a difference. For him it is $47 million a year and this is the way you manipulate the numbers in a trade similar to what Khalil Mack was able to do in Chicago seven years ago.

It is far to question the Packers decision to part with two first round picks as well as a player they already paid a significant amount of salary out to but Parsons is a special player and the Packers do have a good young core that can make it easier to drop draft picks. While it may not be a home run it is a move that is meant to maximize the Packers chances the next two years and then they can deal with the fallout from the trade in 2027.

For Dallas the opposite is true. This minimizes their chances to compete now and requires some great draft picks to come out from this. Sure they saved a bunch of money but it is not like they are going to spend it on free agents in the future as Dallas generally avoids free agency like the plague. I don’t know if Dallas is a real competitor this year or not but if these two picks do not lead to Dallas drafting a good young QB next year or the year after I am not sure what the point will be. Dallas had leverages here and let it all vanish basically getting talked into a trading away a player they probably should have not traded in 2025.