The blockbuster trade between the Ravens and Raiders for Maxx Crosby is now off after the Ravens apparently had medical concerns after getting a closer look at Crosby. Trades in the NFL all are conditional on a player passing a physical and things like this do happen. Every now and then you may see a trade where the player fails the incoming physical after the trade has been accepted by the NFL and then you will see a notation about reverting back to the other team. This has major implications around the NFL and for the Raiders in particular.

The Raiders now maintain the rights to Crosby and his contract reverts back to (really it never left) Vegas. That means they have a $35.79M salary cap charge and $30.782 million salary cap commitment for now. The Raiders are in a tough spot, not because of the salary (they will be cap compliant with or without him) but because of the situation. The Raiders already had moved on as did Crosby. They agreed to terms for players expected to replace him while spending a ton on the rest of the team. Crosby isn’t going to be happy and this isn’t really a fence you can mend.

The Raiders have to quickly pivot to other trade offers and try to get Crosby a new home before this weekend. It is important to note that just because you fail one physical it does not mean that you will fail another one. All teams have different thresholds and opinions.

The Raiders were a part of a deal like this years ago with and offensive lineman in free agency- Rodger Saffold. The Raiders signed Saffold to a pretty massive contract in free agency that was criticized the minute the numbers came out. By all metrics it was a terrible team contract. Days later the Raiders failed Saffold on his physical and backed out of the contract. Many, myself included, thought this was simply buyers remorse since it was days of people saying the Raiders got fleeced. The Rams quickly re-signed Saffold after all of this and said they had no concerns with his medical. Saffold went on to play nine more seasons in the NFL.

That said the Raiders wont get an offer like the one they got from the Ravens despite the claims of what was offered. Teams have also moved on and agreed to terms with other players. Could they back out of those deals? Absolutely but that will be held against the Raiders in trade talks. Plus I think they need to move quick here. You dont want this lingering and if its not done right away you may have one of your free agent signings back out and go elsewhere. If another team has to back out of a trade (Dallas for example) that needs to be decided quickly too. It is a lot of moving parts and someone is going to get screwed in all of this.

I am sure that part of what factored into the Ravens decision was the long term implications and the time they have had to consider alternatives. They were on the hook for $60 million plus the opportunity cost of two first round picks. It is a lot to give up if you have some concerns about how much he can play over the next two years. Trey Hendrickson is lurking out there and will only cost the team money, probably less than they initially thought, and zero opportunity cost on the draft picks. Buyers remorse? Probably a bit of that, just like the Raiders had over 10 years ago. They don’t look good in this situation either and they have to do some explaining to their own players about the direction they are headed.

The Dolphins continued their housecleaning today by agreeing to trade veteran safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Jets for a 7th round pick. The Dolphins basically get minor compensation for a player they were likely to release. Fitzpatrick also agreed to a 3 year extension with the Jets as part of the contract.

The Dolphins somewhat surprisingly traded for Fitzpatrick last year, bringing him back to Miami after trading him to the Steelers in a trade that more or less featured a bunch of moving contracts and little else. As part of the trade Miami decided to give Fitzpatrick a $2 million raise for 2025 and they converted $16.245 million to a signing bonus in order to work within their salary cap framework. That left the Dolphins with $12.996 million in dead money this year. The trade saves Miami about $5.8 million in cap room in 2026.

It was no secret the Jets were in the market for a veteran safety to help fix their defense. I think it is debatable about signing him to a $40 million extension, but we have not seen the details of that deal just yet. Provided it gives them an easy enough trade window in 2027 it makes sense. If it is completely front loaded for 2026 then it does not. They will make the extension official in a few days and we can get a much better opinion of the trade after that.

Miami made it official today, announcing that they will cut Tua Tagovailoa with a post June 1 designation and taking on $99.2 million in dead money over the next two years, a record number in the NFL. The Dolphins owe Tua $54 million in cash minus any money he earns from another team, which likely would be $1.3 million. The Dolphins had no real rush to make this move as only $3 million in future guarantees were tied to an early vesting date, but making the decision now gets them moving in a different direction without all the scrutiny over Tua’s future with the team.

Miami should have two options. As a standard post June 1 the team will take a $67.4 million cap charge this year and defer $31.8 million to next year. These would be the numbers if they renounce a $15 million option in his contract. I believe the NFL rules allow them to exercise the option prior to a post June 1 designation in which case the numbers would be $55.4 and $43.8 million. In the odd event they fail to do either his cap charge this year would increase by $3 million to $70.4 million and then they would receive a $3 million credit in 2027.

Tua wound up earning $124.867 million of a $212.4 million contract he signed in 2024. He completed exactly one new year of that contract making this one of the worst investments for a team of all time. Had Miami not extended him in 2024 they could have franchise tagged him in 2025 for about $38 million. That proved to be quite the mistake by the Dolphins.

As we get ready for free agency to kick off this week I thought it might be informative to go back and look at free agency from two years ago to see how some of those signings have worked out. I only wanted to look at multiple year contracts and contracts that averaged at least $4 million a year. These include tagged players who re-signed. For 2024 there were 116 players that met that criteria

Here is how the roster status of the 2024 signings currently stands:

Not a great hit rate as less than 60% of the players are still on the team they signed with on the same contract or a legit extension (a renegotiation is a pay cut).

Next I broke things down by contract length.

The two year contracts have less than 50% actually lasting the two years which certainly isn’t great. The 3 and 4 years deals are currently just under 70% while the few five year contracts are all still on the teams.

Finally, we have APY ranges for each player.

Obviously the more you make the more likely you are to stick around but we didn’t have a perfect hit rate there either.

Here is the list of all of the players who have been released before finishing their original contract out and maybe get an idea of all the risks that come with free agency each year.

The Maxx Crosby trade sweepstakes has come to a quick close as the Raiders have agreed to trade Crosby to the Ravens according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. As part of the trade the Ravens will part with two first round picks, which is an incredibly high price to pay for a veteran player and a very strong return for the Raiders. Crosby has been considered one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL and has produced double digit sacks in three of the last four seasons.

The Ravens will take on what is technically a $35.5 million per year contract, but the cost will be far under that for the Ravens. The four year average value of the contract for Baltimore is just $29.126 million which would be 8th at the position in the NFL. He has a salary and maximum cap charge in 2026 of $30.782 million. That number drops to $29.782 million in 2027, though his salary is fully guaranteed for that year. In 2028 he has a cap and cash number of $27.282 million and finally has a $28.212 million salary for 2029. The Ravens will need to create about $10 million more in cap room to actually execute this trade. The earliest the trade can happen is March 11.

For the Raiders this was a no brainer of a trade. They are in complete rebuilding mode and Crosby has expressed his unhappiness with everything going on with the team. Wisely they did not drag this out and once a team met their price they agreed to the deal. This value far exceeds what you would expect for a non QB on a third contract.

The Raiders had signed Crosby to four year extension in 2022 that ran through 2026 and averaged $23.5 million a year. He far exceeded the value of the contract and the team opted to add on three more years last season that would average $37.5 million a year, making him, at the time, the highest paid non-QB in the NFL.

Whether by design or by luck the Raiders did not add any major signing bonus to the contract when they extended him. While they did give him a $10.15 million raise for the year that was all accounted for last season. They will carry just $5.1 million in dead money and open up another $30.69 million in cap room. Once the Geno Smith release is processed the Raiders will have just under $130 million in cap room, far and away the most in the NFL. Between this and the draft selections they have a tremendous opportunity to remake their team for the future. Don’t expect them to use all of that space this year as this should be a long term vision that they execute, but Raiders fans should be excited about the potential for their team following this trade.

With so many rumored trades in the NFL this year and so many different sources of numbers, I think many are getting lost in the way that trades actually work in the NFL and the salary cap requirements before and after a trade. So let’s break things down.

When you acquire a player in a trade you are acquiring the player’s contract as is. The prorated money in a contract that was already paid for by the players former team is the only part of the contract that remains with the old team, unless the old team agrees to pay him more salary prior to a trade. When you acquire the contract you need to have the salary cap space necessary to fit that player under the salary cap at the moment you trade for him.

So let’s use Maxx Crosby as an example. He has a $35.791 million salary cap charge with the Raiders. Of that figure $5.791 million is prorated money. That number is still the responsibility of the Raiders. The remaining $30.697 million is the responsibility of the new team in 2026. With Crosby’s current contract structure that means a team trading for Crosby needs at least $29.857 million (Crosbys cap charge minus the $840K salaried player he is replacing) at the time of trade to make the trade happen. If the team only has $10 million the trade is not allowed by the NFL. They need to create space to make the trade happen.

After the trade occurs the acquiring team then has the ability to restructure the contract to bring the salary cap charge down. In Crosby’s case they would convert $28.7 million to a bonus, likely adding a void year in the process, and save $22.96 million in cap room, bringing Crosbys salary cap number for the year down to $7.822 million. However, that does not occur until after the trade. You need the $29.857M to execute the trade not just $7.8 million.

This restructure also does not wipe out the new teams responsibilities for that $22.96 million in savings. That money is simply reallocated to the remainder of the contract. His cap charge would grow by $5.74 million in each additional year. Crosby’s 2027 cap charge, for example, would go from $29.782 million to $35.522 million. The new team is still paying for it they are just changing how they account for it on their salary cap.

Are there ways around these restrictions? Yes there are. You can get creative with a contract to prorate money before the trade but that would require the trading team to be willing to take on more cap charges this year and wait a season to get a credit for not actually paying it. You may not want to do that if you are the team making the trade and players can also ask for more in return if you are asking them to make a modification to make a trade happen especially if it impacts the timing of a new contract. This is a pretty rare occurrence and off the top of my head I can only think of one time a contract was reworked prior to a trade to pre-restructure a contract.

There are different rules in place for franchise players. Those players can sign a new contract with the old team including a signing bonus and the team that trades for that player only has to have the space for the adjusted contract not the tender, but those are strictly for those tendered players not those under an active contract like Crosby.

While the expectation was always that the Raiders were going to release Geno Smith, it looks like the decision became official today according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter who reported the release. The Raiders still owe Smith $18.5 million in salary but hey will avoid another $8 million becoming guaranteed on the 3rd day of the league year. Due to the guarantee the Raiders can not make the move official until March 11th when the new league year begins. The Raiders save $8 million in cap room which gives them the 2nd most in the NFL at $94 million.

The Raiders traded for Smith last year, sending a 3rd round pick to the Seahawks. The Raiders subsequently extended Smith by adding two years, and $75 million to existing contract. This has been a constant mistake by teams around the league and this was no different. The Raiders wound up adding $9 million to Smith’s 2025 salary that they traded for while also guaranteeing the additional $18.5 million for 2026. At the end of the day the Raiders will have paid Smith $58.5 million and given up that draft pick for a 3-14 record while watching the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. Had they left the contract alone it would have only been a $31 million mistake. The Raiders will get a credit for any salary Smith earns from another team, which will reduce the money they paid him by whatever he signs for, which will likely be the minimum of $1.3 million.