Each offseason a number of the multi-year contracts signed by free agents the previous offseason are terminated after just one season. These contracts may be terminated prematurely for a variety of reasons: disappointing performance, injury, team salary cap situation, etc. These factors are, for the most part, unpredictable. However, we can use Expected Contract Value to identify players who are more susceptible to early release due to the characteristics of their contracts. If two players disappoint to an equal degree during the first year of their respective contracts, the characteristics of the contracts may be determinative as to which player – if either – is released the following offseason.
As a reminder, these are the types of contract characteristics taken into consideration by Expected Contract Value:
- Amount of cap room saved as a percentage of cap number
- Amount of Cap room saved as a percentage of average annual value
- Cap number as a percentage of average annual value
- Player age
- Number of seasons remaining on contract
- Percentage of dead money that could be deferred with 6/1 release
I am going to omit two-year contracts from this list, but a number of those contracts are relatively likely to be terminated a year from now: Darnell Dockett (89%), Vince Wilfork (84%), Trent Cole (81%), Jordan Cameron (56%), and Jabaal Sheard (46%).
| Tramon Williams |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $21 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $9.76 million (46%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $7 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $7 million (100% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $6 million (86% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 34 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 76% |
| Andre Johnson |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $18.5 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $11.49 million (62%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $6.17 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $7.5 million (107% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $5 million (67% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 35 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 62% |
| Owen Daniels |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $12.25 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $6.42 million (52%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $4.08 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $4.5 million (110% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $2.5 million (56% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 33 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 62% |
| Antrel Rolle |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $11.25 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $6.74 million (60%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $3.75 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $3 million (80% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $3 million (100% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 33 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 57% |
| Doug Free |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $15 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $8.85 million (59%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $5 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $5.5 million (110% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $2.5 million (45% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 32 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 52% |
| Carry Williams |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $18 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $10.75 million (60%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $6 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $6.17 million(103% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $3.83 million (62% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 31 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 51% |
| Justin Forsett |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $9 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $5.37 million (60%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $3 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $3.7 million (123% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $2.3 million (62% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 30 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 48% |
| Kendall Langford |
| Nominal Length | 4 years |
| Nominal Value | $17.2 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $9.29 million (54%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $4.3 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $4.25 million (99% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $3.5 million (82% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 30 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 43% |
| Curtis Lofton |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $18 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $11.29 million (63%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $6 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $5.45 million (91% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $5.45 million (100% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 30 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 41% |
| Brian Orakpo |
| Nominal Length | 4 years |
| Nominal Value | $31 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $17.57 million (57%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $7.75 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $8.25 million (106% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $4.5 million (55% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 30 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 33% |
| Frank Gore |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $12 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $8.64 million (72%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $4 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $4 million (100% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $1 million (25% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 33 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 33% |
| Brandon Browner |
| Nominal Length | 3 years |
| Nominal Value | $15 million |
| Expected Contract Value | $10.19 million (68%) |
| Nominal Average Annual Value | $5 million |
| 2016 Cap Number | $6.3 million (126% AAV) |
| 2016 Cap Savings | $950K (15% Cap) |
| 2016 Age | 32 |
| Likelihood of 2016 Release | 32% |
Honorable Mention: Nate Allen (22%), James Carpenter (22%), Marcus Gilchrist (22%), Rahim Moore (21%), King Dunlap (21%), Shane Vereen (21%), Bruce Carter (20%), David Harris (20%).
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.