2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC East
As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the best example below). ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.
I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release, so Cullen Jenkins has already been “released” for these purposes, even though he remains under contract with the Giants.
I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.
EDIT: A previous version of this post omitted Cary Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka. Both players have now been added.
Philadelphia Eagles:
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Jason Kelce | 99.2% | NO | |
| Riley Cooper | 96.4% | NO | |
| Lane Johnson | 92.4% | NO | |
| Fletcher Cox | 90.2% | NO | |
| Jason Peters | 87.1% | NO | |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 78.5% | NO | |
| LeSean McCoy | 76.3% | NO | |
| Connor Barwin | 69.0% | NO | |
| Darren Sproles | 67.2% | NO | |
| Todd Herremans | 48.1% | YES | |
| Trent Cole | 47.9% | YES | |
| Brent Celek | 43.2% | YES | |
| Nolan Carroll | 38.7% | YES | |
| Cary Williams | 29.2% | YES | |
| DeMeco Ryans | 26.3% | YES | |
| James Casey | 24.3% | YES | |
| Evan Mathis | 21.4% | YES | |
| Donnie Jones | 17.8% | YES |
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Tyron Smith | 99.7% | NO | |
| Sean Lee | 97.2% | NO | |
| Orlando Scandrick | 97.2% | NO | |
| Dan Bailey | 96.8% | NO | |
| Zach Martin | 95.4% | NO | |
| Morris Claiborne | 87.7% | NO | |
| Tony Romo | 85.0% | NO | |
| Brandon Carr | 67.9% | NO | |
| Henry Melton | 58.6% | NO | |
| Jason Whitten | 55.2% | NO | |
| Barry Church | 52.6% | NO | |
| Mackenzy Bernadea | 42.1% | YES |
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 99.9% | NO | |
| Justin Pugh | 97.9% | NO | |
| DRC | 93.5% | NO | |
| Victor Cruz | 88.0% | NO | |
| Geoff Schwartz | 82.2% | NO | |
| William Beatty | 78.8% | NO | |
| David Wilson | 75.3% | NO | |
| Rashad Jennings | 71.0% | NO | |
| Jon Beason | 54.3% | NO | |
| J.D. Walton | 43.7% | YES | |
| Steve Weatherford | 36.3% | YES | |
| Mathias Kiwanuka | 27.0% | YES | |
| Jameel McClain | 23.7% | YES | |
| Cullen Jenkins | 16.6% | YES | YES |
| Eli Manning | 13.0% | YES |
| Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
| DeSean Jackson | 95.4% | NO | |
| Andre Roberts | 88.6% | NO | |
| Shawn Lauvao | 87.8% | NO | |
| Robert Griffin III | 87.7% | NO | |
| Jason Hatcher | 77.5% | NO | |
| Perry Riley | 77.2% | NO | |
| Chris Baker | 76.3% | NO | |
| DeAngelo Hall | 61.7% | NO | |
| Kory Lichtensteiger | 52.9% | NO | |
| Pierre Garcon | 51.5% | NO | |
| Trent Williams | 43.9% | YES | |
| Barry Cofield | 42.7% | YES | |
| Tracy Porter | 40.4% | YES | |
| Logan Paulsen | 36.7% | YES | |
| Chris Chester | 21.7% | YES | |
| Stephen Bowen | 21.2% | YES |