2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC East

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy (Eli Manning being the best example below).  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.

I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release, so Cullen Jenkins has already been “released” for these purposes, even though he remains under contract with the Giants.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

EDIT: A previous version of this post omitted Cary Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka. Both players have now been added.

Philadelphia Eagles:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Jason Kelce99.2%NO
Riley Cooper96.4%NO
Lane Johnson92.4%NO
Fletcher Cox90.2%NO
Jason Peters87.1%NO
Malcolm Jenkins78.5%NO
LeSean McCoy76.3%NO
Connor Barwin69.0%NO
Darren Sproles67.2%NO
Todd Herremans48.1%YES
Trent Cole47.9%YES
Brent Celek43.2%YES
Nolan Carroll38.7%YES
Cary Williams29.2%YES
DeMeco Ryans26.3%YES
James Casey24.3%YES
Evan Mathis21.4%YES
Donnie Jones17.8%YES

Dallas Cowboys:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Tyron Smith99.7%NO
Sean Lee97.2%NO
Orlando Scandrick97.2%NO
Dan Bailey96.8%NO
Zach Martin95.4%NO
Morris Claiborne87.7%NO
Tony Romo85.0%NO
Brandon Carr67.9%NO
Henry Melton58.6%NO
Jason Whitten55.2%NO
Barry Church52.6%NO
Mackenzy Bernadea42.1%YES

New York Giants:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Odell Beckham Jr99.9%NO
Justin Pugh97.9%NO
Victor Cruz88.0%NO
Geoff Schwartz82.2%NO
William Beatty78.8%NO
David Wilson75.3%NO
Rashad Jennings71.0%NO
Jon Beason54.3%NO
J.D. Walton43.7%YES
Steve Weatherford36.3%YES
Mathias Kiwanuka27.0%YES
Jameel McClain23.7%YES
Cullen Jenkins16.6%YESYES
Eli Manning13.0%YES

Washington Redskins

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
DeSean Jackson95.4%NO
Andre Roberts88.6%NO
Shawn Lauvao87.8%NO
Robert Griffin III87.7%NO
Jason Hatcher77.5%NO
Perry Riley77.2%NO
Chris Baker76.3%NO
DeAngelo Hall61.7%NO
Kory Lichtensteiger52.9%NO
Pierre Garcon51.5%NO
Trent Williams43.9%YES
Barry Cofield42.7%YES
Tracy Porter40.4%YES
Logan Paulsen36.7%YES
Chris Chester21.7%YES
Stephen Bowen21.2%YES