Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions. The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016. A pay cut is treated as […]
The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0. Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value. Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not […]
Due to the fact that rosters will remain mostly static between now and the preseason, I thought that this would be a good time to provide an update as to the status of the players for whom we provided a 2015 expected outcome earlier in the offseason. As a reminder, we ran the Expected Contract […]
2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC East NFC East As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. ECV also […]
I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings So far we have gone over the 2012 and 2013 draft so now it is time for […]
Player incentives are something that myself and Houston fans are not used to hearing about. Rick Smith was the General Manager from 2006 through 2017 (along with capologist Chris Olsen) and did not employ the use of player/team incentives into player contracts. That practice has since changed dramatically with new General Manager Nick Caserio. Caserio […]
With a few weeks of snap counts in the books for the 2019 regular season, let’s take a look at where the 2020 compensatory picks projection stands. First, let’s start with identifying some changes from last May that I feel will be permanent. The Cardinals cut Kevin White, which was bad for the Bears, as […]