I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings So far we have gone over the 2012 and 2013 draft so now it is time for the 2014 NFL draft. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted. The 2023 salary data is included in all analysis.

Career Length

For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.

This was certainly a much better group than the 2013 NFL draft with players having longer careers overall and with the team that drafted them despite being drafted a year later. This year the 3^rd and 4^th rounds ran a bit closer while the 5^th and 6^th could be grouped together. Round 7 had a slightly longer career with the draft team than the prior draft seasons. Six players lasted a decade with the team who drafted them.

Performance by Original Draft Round

We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2014 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.

This was a very strong first round with 60% of the top 10 picks currently ranking in the top 32 and 50% of the rest of the first rounders landing in the top 32. The hit rates for top 100 is currently over 80%. The average position of these players is right around 50. The 2^nd round had some hits and misses  50% of the players landed in the top 64 which is solid but only 60% were in the top 100 which isn’t terrible but also not great. Rounds 3 and 4 had solid hit rates but limited impact players. Round 7 saw a big tick up from the past two years.

If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.

This looks like a very good draft at the top and solid results from late in the draft, relative to where the player was selected. The middle of the draft may have been a slight disappointment overall.

Performance by Position

Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.

While there were not a lot of left tackles selected here, the results were good for the players who were selected. Guard was a pretty safe pick with over 20% of the players landing top 32. QB was solid and this was the first year that wide receiver started to stand out. The non-premier positions did not have any players really break the mold as “unicorn” types.

What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 ?

The wide receiver numbers here stand out as a positive with 80% of them in the top 100 and almost 50% finishing in the top 32. Linebacker and guard did not have the higher end success but did do well in the top 64 and linebacker continues to be a very safe pick in terms of having a longer career. Edge, corner and IDL had more of a boom/bust profile this year. Running back was probably the worst draft selection this year.

Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts

The Raiders blew everyone away, landing two of the top five picks (Derek Carr and Khalil Mack) in this year’s draft. Unfortunately for the Raiders, Mack was gone from the team after a few years and they didn’t hit much more after this. The Cowboys had the number two draft with DeMarcus Lawrence and Zack Martin leading the way. Both players have helped them form a core that has been in and out of the playoffs since 2014. The Jaguars surprisingly came in third with some solid but not standout players. Their total is somewhat inflated by their own decision to extend Blake Bortles.

This was back to back years for the Colts arguably having the worst draft. This is the reason why it is pretty fair to argue that they wasted the Luck years. The worst bang for the buck was from the Jets “historic” 12 person draft. Quincy Enunwa was the top player for the Jets while none of their top picks even lasted 4 seasons with the team.

The Final Draft Rankings

When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.

Our new top 10 consists of four wide receivers, two quarterbacks, two edges, one interior defensive line, and one left tackle. Three top 10 picks actually finished in the top 10. They were Khalil Mack, Jake Matthews, and Mike Evans.  Aaron Donald and Brandin Cooks were 1^st rounders who finished in the top 10 and the remainder were from the second round, so this seems to be a pretty strong year for identifying talent in the right spots. The biggest riser was Charles Leno (228 slot jump)

Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.