2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC South

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC South

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South 

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Indianapolis Colts:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Bjoern Werner96.2%NO
Vontae Davis90.3%NO
D’Qwell Jackson87.9%NO
Trent Richardson83.5%NO
Arthur Jones81.0%NO
Gosder Cherilus80.0%NO
Andrew Luck75.3%NO
Pat McAfee74.6%NO
LaRon Landry58.0%NONO
Ricky Jean-Francois52.3%NO
Robert Mathis45.3%YES
Donald Thomas43.8%YES
Erik Walden37.2%YES
Greg Toler27.2%YES
Shaun Phillips12.3%YESYES
Adam Vinatieri2.0%YES

Houston Texans:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Jadeveon Clowney99.9%NO
Brian Cushing98.2%NO
JJ Watt98.1%NO
DeAndre Hopkins97.7%NO
Duane Brown73.5%NO
Whitney Mercilus71.1%NO
Garrett Graham61.5%NO
Arian Foster57.4%NO
Johnathan Joseph30.6%YES
Ryan Fitzpatrick23.3%YES
Andre Johnson17.7%YES
Chris Myers15.3%YES
Shane Lechler4.5%YES

Tennessee Titans:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Taylor Lewan99.9%NO
Jurrell Casey98.3%NO
Chance Warmack96.2%NO
Kendall Wright82.2%NO
Andy Levitre80.0%NO
Wesley Woodyard78.9%NO
Dexter McCluster78.6%NO
Michael Oher77.0%NONO
Jason McCourty74.0%NO
Kamerion Wimbley61.9%NO
Ropati Pitoitua54.2%NO
Michael Griffin44.5%YES
Al Woods42.9%YES
Sammie Lee Hill42.1%YES
Delanie Walker37.6%YES
Shonn Greene32.0%YES
Craig Stevens21.1%YES
Charlie Whitehurst17.0%YES

Jacksonville Jaguars:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Blake Bortles99.9%NO
Luke Joeckel99.0%NO
Zane Beadles92.3%NO
Roy Miller85.0%NO
Ziggy Hood80.3%NO
Justin Blackmon74.4%NO
Toby Gerhart72.0%NO
Red Bryant66.3%NO
Sen’Derrick Marks65.7%NO
Chris Clemons50.9%NO
Paul Posluszny39.8%YES
Chad Henne31.8%YES
Mercedes Lewis26.4%YES
Josh Scobee18.1%YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.