2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC West

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC West

NFC East

AFC East

NFC West

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Denver Broncos:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Chris Harris99.8%NO
Sylvester Williams95.1%NO
Aqib Talib85.4%NO
T.J. Ward74.7%NO
Emmanuel Sanders64.1%NO
DeMarcus Ware62.0%NO
Louis Vasquez61.1%NO
Britton Colquitt57.2%NO
Ryan Clady54.1%NO
Manny Ramirez19.8%YES
Peyton Manning5.4%YES

Kansas City Chiefs:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Allen Bailey99.2%NO
Eric Fisher95.8%NO
Alex Smith88.0%NO
Dontari Poe87.7%NO
Jamaal Charles82.3%NO
Vance Walker71.8%NO
Eric Berry66.8%NO
Dwayne Bowe63.8%NO
Anthony Fasano47.5%YES
Dustin Colquitt46.8%YES
Sean Smith45.5%YES
Chase Daniel41.5%YES
Joe Mays32.8%YES
Tamba Hali31.6%YES
Mike DeVito28.4%YES
Donnie Avery21.7%YESYES
Derrick Johnson20.7%YES

San Diego Chargers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Donald Butler99.9%NO
DJ Fluker98.7%NO
Danny Woodhead82.0%NO
Melvin Ingram76.8%NO
Donald Brown71.2%NO
John Phillips50.0%NO
Eric Weddle34.2%YES
Chad Rinehart27.1%YES
Mike Scifres19.7%YES
Philip Rivers16.6%YES
Malcom Floyd15.8%YES
Antonio Gates14.9%YES
Jarret Johnson12.5%YES

Oakland Raiders:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Khalil Mack99.9%NO
DJ Hayden95.3%NO
Austin Howard89.4%NO
Tyvon Branch83.6%NO
Marcel Reece60.5%NO
Maurice Jones Drew57.4%NO
James Jones50.3%NO
Nick Roach48.4%YES
Lamarr Woodley28.7%YES
Sebastian Janikowski21.5%YES
Justin Tuck19.9%YES
Donald Penn19.4%YES
Antonio Smith17.6%YES
Matt Schaub15.0%YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

  • 510 Sports

    Don’t see the Raiders cutting Penn, Tuck and Smith. Woodley and Schaub are the two I see highest likelihood.