2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: AFC East

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  AFC East

NFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

New England Patriots:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Rob Gronkowski99.4%NO
Marcus Cannon91.6%NO
Julian Edelman82.2%NO
Chandler Jones80.9%NO
Patrick Chung76.9%NO
Jerod Mayo76.1%NO
Brandon LaFell72.6%NO
Donta Hightower71.2%NO
Danny Amendola71.2%NO
Kyle Arrington65.8%NO
Rob Ninkovich58.3%NO
Brandon Browner49.0%YES
Sebastian Vollmer43.2%YES
Tom Brady41.5%YES
Ryan Wendell32.3%YES
Darrelle Revis27.2%YES
Vince Wilfork22.2%YES

New York Jets:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Sheldon Richardson98.7%NO
Eric Decker97.0%NO
Dee Milliner97.0%NO
Jeremy Kerley96.5%NO
Percy Harvin89.8%NO
Breno Giacomini88.9%NO
Quinten Coples87.2%NO
Nick Folk73.0%NO
D’Brickashaw Ferguson61.6%NO
Nick Mangold52.3%NO
Chris Ivory51.6%NO
Chris Johnson36.6%YESYES
Calvin Pace14.5%YES

Miami Dolphins:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Brandon Albert96.0%NO
Dion Jordan92.5%NO
Brent Grimes87.6%NO
Mike Wallace80.8%NO
Philip Wheeler76.5%NO
Koa Misi75.1%NO
Brian Hartline72.7%NO
Reshad Jones72.7%NO
Ryan Tannehill68.9%NO
Dannell Ellerbe58.6%NO
Brandon Gibson44.7%YES
Shelley Smith42.4%YES
Brandon Fields32.6%YES
Randy Starks26.4%YES
Cortland Finnegan26.3%YES
Cameron Wake20.3%YES 

Buffalo Bills:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Sammy Watkins99.9%NO
Aaron Williams99.6%NO
EJ Manuel98.3%NO
Stephon Gilmore87.7%NO
Eric Wood82.2%NO
Dan Carpenter79.5%NO
Chris Williams77.3%NO
Corey Graham73.8%NO
Mario Williams61.7%NO
Kraig Urbik54.3%NO
Leodis McKelvin53.8%NO
Manny Lawson45.8%YES
Kyle Williams45.6%YES
Keith Rivers42.0%YES
Scott Chandler33.3%YES
Fred Jackson13.0%YES 
  • Werner

    Not sure what to make of this, especially the Patriots’ turnover indicated.

  • McGeorge

    Bryce,
    It’s a neat concept. I think the Jets are not cutting Pace though.
    I would think there is a 99% chance the Jets keep Chris Ivory, rather than a 51%

  • Troy Chapman

    Can’t wait to see this on the AFC South grouping.