2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC West

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC West

NFC East

AFC East

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Seattle Seahawks:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Earl Thomas99.3%NO
Cliff Avril97.6%NO
KJ Wright96.1%NO
Richard Sherman93.9%NO
Kam Chancellor84.6%NO
Doug Baldwin82.5%NO
Michael Bennett80.3%NO
Russell Okung61.2%NO
Bruce Irvin60.6%NO
Steven Hauschka58.3%NO
Max Unger57.4%NO
Marshawn Lynch39.1%YES
Zach Miller38.6%YES
Tony McDaniel30.9%YES
Brandon Mebane28.0%YES

San Francisco 49ers:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Anthony Davis98.8%NO
Eric Reid98.7%NO
Colin Kaepernick95.0%NO
NaVorro Bowman93.7%NO
Joe Staley92.2%NO
Tramaine Brock87.9%NO
Glenn Dorsey76.2%NO
Antoine Bethea73.5%NO
Steve Johnson67.0%NO
Andy Lee55.5%NO
Ahmad Brooks49.7%YES
Patrick Willis37.0%YES
Vernon Davis34.6%YES
Alex Boone33.5%YES
Anquan Boldin24.1%YES
Justin Smith13.1%YES
Phil Dawson3.5%YES

Arizona Cardinals:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Patrick Peterson97.2%NO
Jonathan Cooper94.9%NO
Daryl Washington93.0%NO
Jared Veldheer93.0%NO
Michael Floyd87.7%NO
Carson Palmer69.4%NO
Calais Campbell62.1%NO
Larry Fitzgerald56.0%NO
Ted Ginn52.1%NO
Matt Shaughnessy46.3%YES
Jerraud Powers38.4%YES
Lyle Sendlein28.1%YES
Rashad Johnson27.1%YES
Drew Stanton23.4%YES
Lorenzo Alexander22.2%YES
Darnell Dockett18.3%YES

St. Louis Rams:

PlayerExpected OutcomeCut?Correct?
Greg Robinson99.9%NO
Aaron Donald99.9%NO
Tavon Austin98.7%NO
Robert Quinn98.6%NO
Johnny Hekker98.5%NO
Jared Cook91.3%NO
Michael Brockers90.2%NO
Mark Barron88.4%NO
Roger Saffold83.5%NO
James Laurinaitis76.0%NO
Sam Bradford50.8%NO
Chris Long48.8%YES
Jake Long38.8%YES
Kendall Langford35.2%YES
William Hayes35.2%YES
Eugene Sims17.0%YES
Scott Wells14.1%YES

ECV Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

ECV Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

ECV Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

ECV Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

ECV Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.