vikings

Examining the Potential Landing Spots for Josh Freeman

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

With Josh Freeman’s benching official we now turn some attention  to possible landing spots for the QB. Right off the bat I do feel that the Buccaneers really mishandled the situation.  If they were this down on Freeman to bench him this quickly they should have explored the trade market months ago when he still had value. Giving up on him kills his trade value to the point where you are now just hoping to dump a player that was drafted in the first round in 2009.

I do think a possible scenario could be one in which the Bucs sit and wait until the trade deadline hoping that a starter gets injured and makes picking up Freeman a necessity. That would be the maximized return in terms of trade value. But this is not going to be Carson Palmer to the Raiders. Palmer had retired from football and not had an opportunity to QB a team expected to do well and then been the primary person blamed for failure. They will give up something, but it’s going to be more like a 5th or 6th round pick, not a 2nd rounder.

From a draft pick for player trade perspective I think all sides will look at the possibility of compensatory draft picks. Right now Freeman is damaged goods but players like Vince Young and Jason Campbell were able to fetch close to $4 million a year while Kyle Boller even made $1.5 million, so it’s possible that compensatory picks could be awarded if he hits free agency. If the Buccaneers think they will receive a compensatory 5th in the 2015 draft they  should be willing to take a 5th in 2014 for him. A 6th could even get it done. Those same teams might look at this as a one season delay on the draft pick since they would then hold Freeman’s free agent rights and receive that compensatory pick in the 2015 draft.

Thus far I don’t think there are any rumors of serious interest anywhere, but why not look ahead anyway and focus on the five teamsthat most  fans are talking about.

Minnesota Vikings

I don’t really see this as being an ideal trade partner. While Christian Ponder is not lighting the world on fire in Minnesota he is not the biggest issue on a team that gives up 30 points to the Browns and cant place a body on a receiver on a fake FG attempt. The Vikings are 0-3 and what reason would there be to believe that Freeman, who flopped on a playoff potential team, would come in here and rescue the season?

The other issue here is the cap space issue. Josh Freeman will cost $6.94 million in cap space to a team that acquires him. The Vikings have just $2.3 million. I would imagine if you are trading for Freeman the need for either Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder disappears. The Vikings could include Cassel in a trade and cut about $1.4 million from the payroll, but that still would not be enough to make the trade happen. Ponder would free even less room but the Vikings would also pass along $1.7 million in fully guaranteed 2014 salary to the Bucs, making him perhaps a more reasonable candidate.

I would think to make it work they would move Ponder for Freeman and have to make the salaries match. Trading Ponder transfers $2,829,645 in guaranteed salary to the Buccaneers. In turn the Buccaneers would need to pay $4,112,708 of Freeman’s salary before executing a trade. That would bring the cash and cap commitment for the Vikings to $2.829 million, giving them just enough room to execute a Ponder for Freeman trade. I actually think the Vikings would want something beyond Freeman to do that trade, but Ponder has also become a scapegoat so maybe not.

The Vikings do have a number of high cost players who could also have their contracts reworked to open up the cap space necessary to make the trade if they did not want to part with any players on the team. The Vikings have a low payroll in 2014 so franchising Freeman is a realistic option.

Oakland Raiders

If this was April I think the Raiders would have been interested. Greg Olson, the Raiders Offensive Coordinator, has a relationship with Freeman when the two were together in Tampa and he got the best out of Freeman. But Oakland already whiffed once in the trade market and now have seen Terrelle Pryor at least be capable enough to warrant more opportunity. Pryor did suffer a concussion this past Monday and those injuries can be very tricky. If the Raiders think it could be a long term setback for Pryor this could be a reasonable option.

Like with the Vikings, the trade is complicated because of salary cap constraints as the Raiders only have $3.1 million in room. It is probably further complicated because the Raiders are not going to spend more draft picks on the position as they have wasted picks in trades for Palmer and Flynn in recent years. I would think this would need to be a pure player for player trade with Flynn going to Tampa and Freeman to Oakland. Flynn only makes $1.25 million so again we have a scenario where the Buccaneers are going to need to eat significant salary, somewhere between $2.8 and $3.8 million to make the numbers work.

Oakland does not have the financial flexibility to rework contracts to make the deal work without Tampa kicking in significant money. I guess an outside the box thought would be trading Darren McFadden and his salary to the Buccaneers, but that seems counterproductive for both sides.  If Tampa does not foot the bill Oakland would, most likely, have to sign Freeman to an extension. Since Freeman’s value right now is so low Oakland could be willing to do that if Freeman was willing to sign off on it. Oakland’s payroll is next to nothing in 2014 so adding money to that year, even via a void provision, would not impact them one bit.

Jacksonville Jaguars

In my mind this makes sense simply because the Jaguars are so bad and have the worst QB situation in the NFL. But the Jaguars have not really made any changes to their team and seem to be simply playing for the draft at this point, making this a move they will not want to make. Unlike the first two teams Freeman would be a clear upgrade to both Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, but that could potentially compromise their ability to cruise to the first pick in the draft. There is no reason for the Jaguars to think that Freeman is a franchise QB and they are simply treading water until they get the opportunities to build the team in a manner they feel champions are built.

The Jaguars have more than enough cap room to take Freeman on but unless they just want to throw a bone to their fanbase there is no reason for them to make this trade. It would be a surprise if they made this move.

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland already moved on from Brandon Weeden in favor of Brian Hoyer, so I guess the question here is how high are the Browns on Hoyer, who played well last Sunday, and how low are they on Weeden. The Browns owe Weeden $2.44 million in fully guaranteed salary in 2014 and 2015 and a trade involving Weeden lets them pass those obligations on to another team, which is what they did with Trent Richardson. Would they consider that a fair swap?  I’m not sure as  they may prefer getting a late draft pick for Weeden than a player like Freeman. The Browns have plenty of cap space this year and next so applying the tag or extending Freeman would work without problem.

I would keep an eye on the Browns closer to the trade deadline if Freeman is still riding the bench in Tampa Bay. The Browns division does not look  to be strong this year and the Browns do have a solid defense that will keep them in games. If Hoyer proves to be a one game wonder but the Browns tread water and sit at 3-4 with a solid defense Freeman could be worth a gamble. At the worst it is throwing away a player you have already given up on for someone who could be more than just a stopgap for the season.

Tennessee Titans

I have seen the Titans name mentioned before, and they have just enough cap room to pull this trade off, but I’m not really sure there is a fit. I feel as if the Titans would like to continue to give Jake Locker a look and if he was to fail would be prepared to turn the reigns over to Ryan Fitzpatrick in hopes of being able to make the playoffs.  Going forward the Titans have enough salary cap commitments to where having cap rollover dollars are more important than bringing Freeman onto the roster. Those same cap commitments likely eliminate the Franchise tag and any extensions before free agency. I only see this as a destination if both Locker and Fitzpatrick were to get injured.

Follow @Jason_OTC

[subscribe2]

Official Salary Cap Space Update

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

While we keep our own estimates of salary cap space on the website for the current and future seasons, the numbers are not official. We do our best to track the cap but with injury settlements, grievances, and all kinds of behind the scenes action we can’t be perfect (though our numbers are proving to be pretty good) . That said we were able to obtain the official cap numbers for the league via a source which are accurate through the transactions on September 6 and with teams considering adding veterans in week 2 this is a good time to get an idea on what teams can spend.

There are a few moves of note that were made over the weekend that will impact these numbers, namely the Dolphins extension of Koa Misi as well as the official release of a few players on Injured reserve by a number of teams. I believe the Panthers had two players released on Saturday that would certainly alter their numbers and teams began signing players again on Monday and suspensions were also lifted for some players. Many of the weekends moves(not the Misi extension) are already reflected in our cap estimates which makes it difficult to compare side by side, but most figures were within a few hundred thousand.

There are three teams with under $1 million in cap room- the Saints, Vikings, and Giants. The Giants are the most interesting of the group because they are in desperate need for a running back but only have $494,000 in cap room to spend. The players they are looking at would all be minimum salary benefit players (555K base cap hit prorated at 522K for 16 weeks) and they would replace someone earning either 480K or 405K so they have the cap room to execute the move but just barely. Any further injuries could significantly compromise the Giants salary cap to the point where they either need to play with 52 players or further restructure contracts for cap relief. Once S Will Hill and DT Markus Kuhn come off of the suspension list and PUP list respectively  the Giants will gain some cap space as they will replace two players off the current active roster, however that process does not begin until week 5, so they need to be injury free the next two games.

Not surprisingly the Browns have the most cap room in the NFL at $24 million with the Bills and Dolphins both coming in just under $20 million. All told six teams have over $10 million left to spend while 20 teams have less than $5 million, which could make for a sluggish environment for in season contract extensions unless the player is already playing under a very high cap charge.

On a cash basis we were informed that eight teams do not currently meet the yearly team cash spending allotment. No penalties occur for that as you have a four year period to spend 89% of the total unadjusted cap, but those are teams that will need to be spenders in the future. Of those eight teams only four were significantly under (Raiders, Jaguars, Redskins, and Panthers). Leaguewide spending is about 99% of the cap. The NFL has to spend 95%, again over a 4 year period, so they should be comfortably ahead in 2013.

Here are the official cap figures as of September 6:

Browns

$24.13

Dolphins

$19.54

Bills

$19.41

Jaguars

$17.98

Eagles

$17.21

Packers

$10.88

Bengals

$8.26

Patriots

$7.89

Buccaneers

$7.84

Titans

$7.72

Panthers

$7.69

Broncos

$7.68

Falcons

$4.87

Cardinals

$4.06

Chargers

$4.00

Raiders

$3.99

Seahawks

$3.67

Bears

$3.66

Jets

$3.41

Lions

$3.16

Texans

$2.91

Colts

$2.65

Chiefs

$2.56

49ers

$2.17

Ravens

$1.97

Cowboys

$1.89

Redskins

$1.85

Steelers

$1.52

Vikings

$1.42

Saints

$0.94

Rams

$0.78

Giants

$0.49

[subscribe2]

Nine Teams Need to Make Cap Related Moves

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

The NFL salary cap is a major concern for teams at two times every season. The first is the most talked about time, which is the month of February when teams are ripping apart rosters to become salary cap compliant for the new League Year and to create the maximum possible cap room for free agency. Once free agency ends the overall importance of the cap is low because only the top 51 contracts plus dead money charges count towards the salary cap.

The second most important time for the cap is right now.  By 4 PM on September 4 the cap valuations change. For salary cap purposes rosters expand to include everyone under contract. At a minimum that pushes the roster to 53 players plus a Practice Squad, which every team fields. The cost of two players adds at least $810,000 to the roster and a PS costs a team another $816,000.  For teams that have players on Reserve lists such as PUP or IR the salary for the players who are replacing them will now count. For some teams that can be an additional 4 to 5 players that will now be accounted for. It quickly adds up and it all adds up by Wednesday.

While most teams want to carry upwards of $5 million in season salary cap space for emergencies, I just want to focus on the teams that will be around the $3 million mark come Wednesday based on how things stand right now. Based on the top 51 cap room as of the morning of the 29th , nine teams will have  less than $3 million in cap space on Wednesday. Of those nine, four will not be cap compliant unless players inside the top 51 are released.  Those four are, in order, the Rams, Chiefs, Texans, and Redskins. The other five teams are the Vikings, Seahawks, Chargers, Giants, and Bears.

With that in mind I wanted to look at these teams and moves they may need to make cap space.

Rams– The Rams are projected to about $1.2 million over the salary cap based on their current roster construction. I would not expect the Rams to release anyone of note but instead restructuring deals for cap relief. The most likely candidates are Cortland Finnegan ($9 million base salary), Sam Bradford ($9 million base salary), and Chris Long ($7.25 million base salary).  Long already restructured once so its less likely they would go to him again. With questions marks surrounding Bradford and already over $10 million in dead money on the books in 2014, Finnegan is the guy to watch. Converting $7 million of his base into a signing bonus will save the team $5.5 million in cap room and increase his 2015 dead money from $2 million to $5.5 million, which could be considered acceptable.

Chiefs– The Chiefs will be around $500,000 over the cap if moves are not made in their top 51. There are minimal avenues for savings for the team, due to high offseason spending and the fact that they retained Branden Albert on the Franchise tag rather than extending or trading him. There is no one of note that could be released or even threatened with release to really help them. The logical solution would seem to be having Tamba Hali restructure his contract. He carries a $12.25 million dollar base salary and just cutting and prorating the difference would save the team about $4 million in cap room.

If they fail to reach an agreement the other candidate is Alex Smith, and for long term cap planning probably makes more sense to approach than Hali. Smith earns $7.5 million this season and next season. Because the contract only has two years remaining proration is limited over two years, but that could be enough to easily save at least $3 million in cap this season by converting $6 million of salary to a bonus. That would make his cap charge just $10.5 million in 2014, still a bargain for a starting QB. Though neither side will want to extend that deal they could also go the void year route for proration purposes if they wanted.

Texans– Houston will only be about $300,000 over the cap, though that number does not include the replacement body they likely need to carry to cover Antonio Smith’s one game suspension, which would increase the cap to $700,000 over. They could carry 52 players for the week for cap purposes if necessary. The Texans are an older team so extensions to players like Wade Smith are not really a possibility. Jonathan Joseph makes $7.5 million this season and might be a person they look at for a bonus conversion, though that will put the last two seasons of his contract very high in terms of cap charges. This could be a team that also ends up releasing some of the veteran players close to minimum salaries to pick up small amounts of cap.

Redskins– Washington will be right up against the cap and don’t really have much in the way of high salaries to reduce as their situation is compromised by the cap penalties more than expensive contracts. LB London Fletcher is the one player who should be given a pay cut from his $5.5 million base, but that seems unlikely at this point. His contract already contains numerous void years for proration purposes so it’s possible they could simply defer the cap charges to next season. The other person to watch out for would be WR Santana Moss.  Releasing Moss will clear $2.25 million from the books. The team could also consider asking Chris Baker, playing on a non-guaranteed $1.323 million tender to reduce his salary by a few hundred thousand.

The Other Five (Bears, Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, Vikings)

I lumped these four together since they should all be cap compliant even after the rosters expand but wanted to touch on them briefly

Chicago we have touched on many times before and just yesterday wrote about why moving WR Earl Bennett is a likely move. The Bears have multiple avenues for cap relief if they want it via extensions, but it seems as if they will weed out some of the lower cost players like Bennett that they feel will not make a contribution rather than extending players.

The Giants cap was dealt a big blow when they lost their starting Safety for the season, but they should be ok. Players in danger could be Bear Pascoe, Louis Murphy, Aaron Ross, etc…They could also work with Chris Snee or Antrell Rolle if needed for cap space….

The Chargers could be in trouble because they already have a massive list of players on IR and PUP. Releasing Max Starks would save the team over $2 million based on cap treatment of LTBE’s and releasing WR Eddie Royal would save $3 million. Royal might be asked to take a pay cut instead.

Seattle is not in terrible cap position, though they currently have a IR number that will eat into it a bit if settlements are not reached. I’d imagine they will continue to cut veterans for cap relief. Releasing special teamer Heath Farwell saves the team $1.5 million and looking at FB Michael Robinson could save $2.5 million. Both could also be asked to take paycuts.

The Vikings might look to simply cut ties with some projected backups making over the minimum (Desmond Bishop, Fred Evans, AJ Jefferson) if they felt they needed more cap space. They will gain some added cap room once Jerome Feltons suspension is official and considering they are right around $3 million in room may not see the need to make any moves.

[subscribe2]

Vikings Kevin Williams Takes Paycut

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

The Vikings Kevin Williams set to earn $7 million in base salary has agreed to a large paycut according to NFLPA records. It had long been rumored that the Vikings were looking to drop Williams salary to a more manageable figure and it would seem as if they were able to finally get him to agree to the contract restructure.

While we do not have exact details of the restructure we do know that His base salary was reduced from $7 million to $4.9 million dollars, a savings of $2.1 million. Williams, in his original contract, also had a $100,000 workout bonus and $400,000 weight bonus that was considered “likely to be earned” for cap purposes. We are estimating that the Vikings maintained the workout bonus but eliminated the weight clause, adding up to a total savings of $2.5 million in cap dollars.

In return for agreeing to the paycut the Vikings have deleted the 2014 year from Williams’ contract, allowing him to become a free agent after this season,. The Vikings should have around $6.9 million in cap room following the move.

Update: Per Tom Pelissero of ESPN1500 our guess on the contract structure was correct, however the Vikings also guaranteed the $4.9 million base salary of Williams in the renegotiation.

View Kevin Williams Estimated Salary Cap Hits

[adsenseyu2]

Percy Harvins Future With Minnesota…

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

Scout.com’s Jim Holler has an interesting perspective on some of the behind the scenes stuff that may be going on between WR Percy Harvin and the Minnesota Vikings.

Given the Vikings history of signing players to long-term extensions during the season prior to the final year of their contract, the next few weeks could be critical in the Vikings’ relationship with Harvin. If all goes well, Harvin gets the long-term extension the Vikings need to make their plan for the future work. If it doesn’t, the next couple years could be interesting to say the least.

Harvin is currently in the 4th year of a 5 year contract he signed as a rookie in 2009. He made it well known in the offseason that he wanted a contract extension or a trade out of Minnesota. Now with the offense sputtering the lack of contract talks may be causing some discord between he and the team.

It is a difficult situation for Harvin for a number of reasons. The Vikings are one of the teams that seems to always be strapped for cash and are very hesitant to lock in long term on certain positions. While Harvin puts up strong numbers he plays in the slot and most teams do not value that position nearly as much as a WR lining up outside the hash marks. Harvin has value as a return man, but few teams in the NFL will put a real dollar value on that number. Perhaps most frustrating though to Harvin is that the longer he waits the more likely it is for the receiver market to change in a negative direction.

While teams have paid big money for top of the line wide receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson it is only a matter of time before teams realize that a receiver can only make an impact if the rest of the team around them plays well. For all of the big dollars the Arizona Cardinals have given Fitzgerald, his impact was minimized once Kurt Warner retired. Johnson has had a poor year with a struggling team. Andre Johnson never had the impact on the Houston Texans that Arian Foster and the offensive line has had. Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers became a non-factor once Jake Delhomme started playing so poorly.

NFL teams change directions every few years, such as the move from salary investments in run dominated offenses  to investments in the passing game, and the writing is on the wall that teams should move away from the high priced receiver. This is only strengthened by the fact that more and more receivers are coming out of college, due to the stylistic change in the NCAA to pro style offenses, polished and ready to contribute at the pro level. What used to take 3 and 4 years in the past is happening in 1 or 2 and the pricetag is nothing for a rookie.

As time goes on contracts like those of Santonio Holmes of the New York Jets will disappear and those are the players who are Harvins comparables. It is going to minimize his value, especially if Victor Cruz of the NY Giants ends up with a contract that is not in the upper echelon. The Vikings have no reason to move on Harvins contract, either. Harvin will likely receive a salary next year of $3.2 million and then will have his rights controlled via the franchise tag the following season. With the tag numbers stagnant it puts the player in a terrible bargaining position. That may be where Percy Harvin finds himself over the next few years.