Thoughts on Harrison Smith’s New Contract

The full details of Harrison Smith’s extension hit the internet today which gives us the ability to better evaluate the contract. Smith’s $10.25 million new money average per year, $28.578 million injury guarantee, and $32.25 million three year value are all high points among safeties under long term contract. So what were the tradeoffs and how strong is the contract?  Let’s inspect further.

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Vikings Extend John Sullivan

The Vikings have extended the contract of center John Sullivan through 2017 according to ESPN’s Field Yates.  Technically the extension is valued at one year for $8.5 million, but the reality is that the contract is a $2.25 million raise for this season and $3 million over the next two years. Such a contract avoids any potential contractual problems this summer, keeping the team’s starting center happy and fully involved with the team.

Sullivan, who was scheduled to earn $4.75 million this year, will now earn $7 million, but just $1 million of that raise comes from a signing bonus, which keeps the Vikings accounting records clean in the event they want to move on from Sullivan at any point in the future. His actual “extension year” carries a $5.5 million salary, but he could be released that year with just $333,334 remaining on the salary cap, so this is essentially a pay as you go style contract.

The Vikings lost $1.333 million in cap room by extending Sullivan. Sullivan had previously counted for $6 million on the cap. His new cap charge this year is $7.333333 million. The following two seasons will have Sullivan at cap charges of about $5.83 million each year. Sullivan had been OTC’s pick for best contract on the Vikings due to their decision to lock him up early rather than allowing him to test free agency. The $6 million he can earn over the next three seasons puts him somewhat back in line financially with his actual production.

Vikings 2015 Salary Cap Outlook

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Estimated 2015 Cap Space: $13.0 million ($140M cap limit)

Roster Overview

Players Under Contract: 64
Pro Bowlers: 0
Unrestricted Free Agents: 8(1 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 11

Salary Cap Breakdown

Vikings 2015 Salary Cap

Vikings 2015 Salary Cap

Vikings 2015 Salary Cap

Free Agents to Re-sign

Veteran defensive tackle Tom Johnson very quietly posted 6.5 sacks in 2014 and seems to have found his niche with Minnesota. He made $845,000 last year on a one year deal and I would think this time it may be a two year deal in the $2.5 million range….ILB Jasper Brinkley played well in the defense last season and there is no reason to part with him until a draft pick is established….C Joe Berger is familiar with the team and can either start on the interior line or be a valuable backup. He’ll likely only cost the minimum.

Free Agents to Let Walk

The Christian Ponder era never really got off the ground and he won’t even be in consideration as a backup for them next season…The Vikings took a cheap flier on Corey Wootton and he never really did enough to merit any significant playing time. Those depth roles usually turn over to a new player…Vlad Ducasse couldn’t play on the Jets and didn’t do much better in Minnesota.

Contracts to Modify

I was down on the signing of Greg Jennings from day one as a major reach on both price and expete role, but the team needs wide receivers and Jennings can still fill a void as a mid level number 2 capable of 700 yards a season. Considering the development of a young QB is of major importance it would be wise to find a way to bring his contract in line with his production rather than just releasing him. He’ll make $9 million on his current deal and they should be able to cut that down to $5 million.

Players to Consider Releasing

I don’t think Adrian Peterson wants to remain a Viking and I am not sure the Vikings really need to deal with the headache of reinstating him. The organization should be looking toward the future and he is the one link to the past. Releasing him saves the team $13 million in cap space…Chad Greenway’s best days are behind him and the Vikings should get younger and faster at the position. Cutting Greenway saves $7.1 million.

Offseason Plan

I kind of feel as if the most important decision right now for the Vikings is to decide whether or not Matt Kalil is their left tackle moving forward or if they need a contingency plan. Kalil has tailed off and while they will likely pick up his option year for 2016, the cost of that option is high and may make negotiating the parameters of an extension more difficult. Being proactive and making that contract extension offer before picking up the option might be worthwhile, but if they decide that an extension will likely not happen or they don’t want it to happen then they may want to focus their draft on finding a new offensive tackle that will take over for Kalil in 2016.

The Vikings as of now do not have a large surplus of cap space to work with so if they do not decide to release Peterson and Greenway they will have a harder time making significant additions in free agency if they get into a bidding war. That said, outside of an interior lineman or cornerback I don’t believe the Vikings would plan on being very active in free agency. The release of one of those players and reworking Jennings deal would allow them to potentially target the top potentially available names at those positions (Mike Iupati and Byron Maxwell). If the release Peterson they may go after a low cost player at the position to add to the running back mix next season.

Based on where the Vikings currently stand they should focus on the draft where they can improve the core of their team and find help in the secondary, linebacker, offensive line and wide receiver. If Kalil is indeed the guy for them then they can bypass tackle and probably land a very good corner in the draft and potentially address most of their needs in the first three rounds and making one free agent splash.

If they believe strongly that Bridgewater ends up as a solid starter they should like their current position as the young upstart of the North. They finished better than an aging Chicago team this season and not much separates them from the high priced Lions. Reaching the Packers level, if Rodgers is healthy for 16 games, is always difficult but building that core in the draft for one more season before going crazy with free agents would probably give them a better chance at doing it than trying for a short term fix and throwing money at players now. I think by saving some money this year and continuing to build their nucleus they will be in a great position come 2016. They can work their way to wildcard contention next season by staying the course and then make the leap heavy into free agency to fill the voids that remain on the team.

Vikings Links

Vikings Salary Cap Pages

Vikings Free Agents

Vikings Contracts

Vikings GM Salary Cap Calculator

Other Offseason Salary Cap Reports

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Matt Cassel To Void Contract With Vikings?

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When discussing voidable contracts the other day we made note that Matt Cassel of the Vikings had the option to void his deal this week. According to Darren Wolfson it sounds as if Cassel is leaning towards doing just that. Minnesota is going through many changes this year as they brought in a new coaching staff and will be moving outdoors for the foreseeable future, two items that may have led to the decision. Cassel, who went 3-3 as a starter last season on a bad Vikings team, might see 2014 as his best opportunity to cash in, especially given the poor QB market in free agency.

Cassel was scheduled to earn $3.7 million from the Vikings in 2014 with an opportunity to earn $500,000 more in incentives. For a backup QB that is a higher end salary which means Cassel has to believe that either the Vikings or another team will pay him low level starter money. It’s certainly a risk as last season the top high end backup QB signings were Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Moore. Hasselbeck earned $5 million from the Colts and Moore $4 million from the Dolphins. Cassel was third at $3.7 million. Other names such as Kevin Kolb and Ryan Fitzpatrick took deals for much less money.

While teams like the Raiders with large amounts of cap room and uncertainty at the position could be interested in Cassel, many of these teams passed on him last season when they had an opportunity and it is hard to imagine 6 starts changing the opinion that much. Cassel has also only suited up for 27 games in the last three seasons which is not going to endear him to anyone looking for a 16 game starter. So there is certainly a risk to voiding his deal if Minnesota will not be in play as a fallback position.

If there was in fact an indication that Minnesota wanted to start him this year he likely feels that he should earn more money from them. Carson Palmer, who is much higher regarded, signed for $8 million a season and $8 million in cash in 2013 with Arizona. Mike Vick received $7.5 million, a figure somewhat inflated by the potential cap consequences of releasing him. Those would be the top end numbers and I’d consider both very unlikely.  Most likely he would be looking to top Hasselbeck’s salary with maybe some incentives to push him in the $6 million range.

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The Costs of Moving Adrian Peterson

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Yesterday Adrian Peterson mentioned to ESPN’s SVP and Russillo that the thought had crossed his mind about finishing his career with the Cowboys, the team he grew up watching and cheering for as a young man. Is it possible?

While Peterson is under contract to the Minnesota Vikings through 2017, there is minimal financial reasons for the Vikings to keep Peterson. Peterson’s cap charge in 2014 is $14.4 million and removing him from the roster frees up $9.6 million in cap space and eliminates a cash payment of $12 million due to Peterson.

While Peterson is the best running back in the NFL his salary numbers are pretty outrageous for the position. His cap charge is $4.4 million higher than our estimated second highest cap charge at the position.  His cash salary is $3.625 million higher.  With the lessening impact of the position through the last five years it is an investment few teams might be willing to make.

For as great as Peterson was in 2012 when he won the NFL MVP award the best the Vikings could muster was a Wildcard berth and first round exit in the playoffs. This season Minnesota has struggled and is in contention for a top draft pick. They have no Quarterback, having gone through Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and Josh Freeman at various points of the season, and their star defensive player, DE Jared Allen, is about to leave in free agency. Most likely this is a team prepared to rebuild and rebuilding often does not include a 29 year old running back making $14 million a year over the next few seasons.

Though cutting Peterson should not be an option (there is no benefit in that for Minnesota short or long term)since the team salary cap is not a major issue, trading him should be a consideration. The $9.6 million in cap that is freed up in 2014 and $15.4 million freed up in 2015 can go towards signing multiple players to replenish a barren roster and the draft picks can be used to rebuild an organization from the ground up.

For an acquiring team Peterson would come over with non-guaranteed salaries and cap charges of $12, $13, $15, and $16 million from 2014 through 2017 (remember the Vikings would keep the prorated portion of his contract currently factored into his cap hits). Obviously these numbers are very high which would limit the market to two types of teams. One would be those with a great deal of cap room to simply absorb the yearly charges, increase their payroll and have no dead money in the contract. This would be a team like the Browns (and how funny would that be if they essentially flipped Trent Richardson for Adrian Peterson). The other is a team that just plans for the short term and sees a window of opportunity. That is where the Cowboys could come into play.

Dallas is a team only concerned with the now. Their salary cap planning has been very shortsighted and player friendly. They live year to year and continue to defer costs to the future to help compete in the present. Peterson would fit right in the mold of contract that the Cowboys would associate themselves with.

The Cowboys cap problems are well known but it would be easy to take Peterson for one year in a trade. They could simply reduce his $12 million salary to about the minimum, add a voidable season to the contract, and prorate the difference. This is what Dallas has done for years with their players. Reducing his salary to $1 million and giving him the rest in the form of a signing bonus would reduce the cap charge from $12 million to $3.2 million. His cap charge the next year would be $15.2 million with $8.8 million in dead money if released, but for a team only concerned with the now that probably does not matter. So the move is one that could be made by the Cowboys.

While this would not replenish the Hershel Walker heist from all those years ago I would think a first round pick would need to be involved for the Vikings to make the deal and be able to spin it as a positive. If Dallas was to make such a move I think they would need to consider a philosophical change to the way they approach offense. For years Tony Romo has been over 80% of the Cowboys offense. They like to throw the football. That number has to come down to a normal play selection if you are bringing in Peterson.  Peterson’s value is nowhere near his price tag if the Cowboys run him 12-15 times a game.

So maybe it’s all just a pipe dream for all involved here, but the Vikings are going to be making changes this year and Peterson may not fit into those changes if the right price is offered from another franchise. Maybe come February we’ll get a better idea of what the Vikings are thinking regarding him.

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OTC Power Rankings: Week 7

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