A Modest Proposal To Nudge Trade Deadline Activity

Fans and the media often crave for activity as the trade deadline approaches. They identify contenders and pretenders, and make reasonable hypotheses of where players from the latter should go to the former. Yet every season, they are regularly disappointed as to how little actually happens. Much of this has to do with the how the rules of the CBA and the financial constraints that it creates make trades less practical than it seems. However, it may be fair to say in some cases that a few teams are more reticent to throw in the towel on players that are unlikely to be part of their future than they should be.

Therefore, as a bit of a thought exercise I conceived a proposed new rule to the CBA that would allow a small group of players to be traded immediately after the deadline–even against the will of the team they’re currently on.

To be eligible to be one of those players, all of the following criteria must be attained:

  1. The player must be on a team that has either zero or one wins by the trade deadline. (The idea here is that with a minimum of six losses plus ties, even with an expanded playoff slate it would still be daunting to come back from that hole.)
  2. The player’s contract must be set to expire at the conclusion of this season.
  3. The player must be on a vested veteran contract. (That’s defined here as having at least four accrued seasons before the current season started, and also not on a rookie contract.)
  4. The player additionally may not be on a one year contract resulting from being given a franchise or transition tender. (The idea here is that we are giving teams the benefit of the doubt that they are actually using these tenders in a good faith effort to later extend them.)

Among those players, the following procedure would then take place:

  1. In the 24 hours after the trade deadline ends (this year, Tuesday, November 3 at 4 PM ET), any team may submit any amount of draft pick compensation it is willing to surrender to a team in exchange for the player it would like to acquire.
  2. After this 24 hour period ends (this year, Wednesday, November 4 at 4 PM ET), the NFL notifies all teams and players in question who has been given a trade offer. If multiple offers are made for the same player, the offer with the higher draft compensation wins out, and ties will be broken by standard waiver order.
  3. For the next 48 hours (this year, ending on Friday, November 6 at 4 PM ET), the player decides whether or not to accept the trade offer. If so desired, the player and team may renegotiate their contract to avoid the trade, and they may also be granted an exemption from the trade deadline to trade the player to a different team for different compensation, should both sides agree upon it.

The list of players on the right (or below on small mobile devices) are the players from the teams that could qualify for this new rule in 2020. Those teams, for the time being, are the Jets, Giants, Jaguars, Texans, Falcons, Vikings, and Bengals. The players on the Jets, Jaguars and Texans will be there no matter what, while the other teams will remain should they lose in Week 8.

Looking at this list, there are hardly any stars on there, as you’d expect, and the grand majority would be players that teams would be unlikely to be desired by other teams for even a 7th round pick. Still, there are a few notable names that might be able to help a team with injury/depth problems at certain positions.

Some positions that caught my eye were the following:

  • Defensive backs appear to stand out in quantity. This includes Brian Poole, Pierre Desir, and Bradley McDougald on the Jets, Logan Ryan on the Giants, Mackensie Alexander on the Bengals, Vernon Hargreaves on the Texans, and Darqueze Dennard on the Falcons.
  • Alex Mack, Dakota Dozier, and Cameron Fleming are a trio of offensive linemen with high snap counts that could provide a patch for teams hurting there.
  • Teams looking for edge rush help could look at Kyler Fackrell, Brennan Scarlett, or Jordan Jenkins.
  • At wide receiver, the Jets have a pair in Breshad Perriman and Chris Hogan, while Chris Conley shows up on this list from the Jaguars, as well as Kenny Stills from the Texans.
  • Finally, would anyone take a flyer on Todd Gurley at running back?

This is an idea that almost certainly will never happen, as teams will be very loath to give up this kind of roster control. But if nothing else, it’s at least a way to identify players whose time on a struggling team may be coming to an end, regardless of whether that’s now or at the end of the regular season.

NameTeamPos.AgeSnapsRemaining Salary
Alex MackATLC35100.0%$4,705,882
Kenny StillsHOUWR2832.5%$4,102,941
D.J. HaydenJAXCB3043.5%$3,529,412
Shawn WilliamsCINS299.6%$2,455,331
Bradley McDougaldNYJS3093.6%$2,398,897
Todd GurleyATLRB2654.7%$2,058,824
Breshad PerrimanNYJWR2734.6%$2,045,956
Avery WilliamsonNYJLB2855.7%$2,039,522
Abry JonesJAXIDL2939.1%$2,000,000
Chris ConleyJAXWR2841.0%$1,588,548
Kyler FackrellNYGEDGE2973.7%$1,529,412
Kevin HuberCINP3530.9%$1,470,588
Mackensie AlexanderCINCB2754.4%$1,464,154
Spencer PulleyNYGC270.0%$1,180,882
Matt SchaubATLQB390.0%$1,176,471
A.J. McCarronHOUQB300.0%$1,176,471
Graham GanoNYGK3332.6%$1,170,037
Cameron FlemingNYGRT2896.3%$1,163,603
Jordan JenkinsNYJEDGE2647.9%$1,163,603
Brian PooleNYJCB2882.4%$1,163,603
Brennan ScarlettHOUEDGE2752.6%$1,083,640
Pierre DesirNYJCB3080.9%$1,016,544
Alex EricksonCINWR286.7%$997,426
Dion LewisNYGRB3034.5%$900,184
Logan RyanNYGCB2992.5%$898,897
Randy BullockCINK3135.4%$897,059
Christian CovingtonCINDE2752.0%$875,919
Joe FlaccoNYJQB3535.8%$870,772
Mike DanielsCINDT3115.6%$842,647
Tyler ShatleyJAXC2942.7%$808,824
Austin JohnsonNYGIDL3119.9%$801,471
Matthias FarleyNYJS280.7%$749,044
LeShaun SimsCINCB2738.8%$731,434
Josh BynesCINLB3170.0%$730,147
Kamalei CorreaJAXEDGE2619.5%$728,860
Chris ThompsonJAXRB3034.9%$673,897
James O’ShaughnessyJAXTE2849.7%$647,794
Mike GlennonJAXQB310.0%$645,772
Devonta FreemanNYGRB2831.7%$629,412
Vernon HargreavesHOUCB2577.7%$625,919
Jabaal SheardNYGEDGE313.7%$617,647
Margus HuntCINDT3327.3%$617,647
Jon WeeksHOULS3428.7%$617,647
Luke StockerATLTE3239.6%$617,647
LaRoy ReynoldsATLLB304.9%$617,647
Frank GoreNYJRB3740.3%$617,647
Chris HoganNYJWR3268.2%$617,647
Clark HarrisCINLS3630.9%$617,647
Blidi Wreh-WilsonATLCB3127.3%$617,647
Nate EbnerNYGS327.0%$617,647
Colt McCoyNYGQB340.0%$617,647
Aaron LynchJAXEDGE270.0%$591,544
Darqueze DennardATLCB2947.6%$591,544
Patrick OnwuasorNYJLB280.0%$588,235
Neville HewittNYJLB2799.3%$588,235
Steven MeansATLEDGE3147.6%$535,294
Kyle EmanuelHOULB290.0%$535,294
Caraun ReidJAXDT297.1%$535,294
Xavier WilliamsCINDT2811.2%$535,294
Josh AndrewsNYJRG2910.4%$535,294
Brett JonesMINC290.0%$535,294
George IlokaMINS3010.6%$535,294
Brent QvaleHOURT290.0%$535,294
Adam GotsisJAXEDGE2845.9%$535,294
Eric TomlinsonNYGTE280.5%$535,294
C.J. ProsiseHOURB261.4%$535,294
John WetzelATLRT290.7%$535,294
Bruce MillerJAXFB3311.6%$535,294
Todd DavisMINLB2811.8%$535,294
Sharrod NeasmanATLS2910.7%$535,294
Daniel BrownNYJTE280.0%$535,294
Tyrell AdamsHOULB2834.0%$535,294
Dakota DozierMINLG29100.0%$535,294
Phillip GainesHOUCB2916.3%$535,294
Rashod HillMINRT281.1%$535,294
Ameer AbdullahMINRB275.3%$535,294
Casey KreiterNYGLS3028.7%$535,294
Sean MannionMINQB280.0%$535,294
Michael ThomasHOUS3112.6%$535,294
Brandon WilliamsNYGCB280.0%$485,294
Mike ThomasCINWR2632.9%$485,294
Tajae SharpeMINWR264.2%$485,294
Bryce HagerNYJLB280.0%$130,311
David FalesNYJQB300.0%$120,000
Greg ManczHOUC280.0%$120,000
Ross TravisNYJTE270.0%$120,000
Carson TinkerNYGLS310.0%$120,000
Laquon TreadwellATLWR250.0%$120,000
Josh MauroJAXEDGE290.0%$120,000
Alfred MorrisNYGRB320.0%$120,000
Corey LiugetHOUDE300.0%$120,000
Devin SmithHOUWR270.0%$120,000

Vikings Trade Ngakoue

After a terrible start to the 2020 season the Vikings have quickly pulled the plug one of their worst decisions of the 2020, a trade of a 2nd and 5th round draft pick for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue by trading Ngakoue to the Ravens for a 3rd and 5th round draft pick. Obviously many will pan the move by Minnesota who will have spent $6.82 million for 6 games of Ngakoue, but for a team going nowhere it is a move that really had to be made to fix the original mistake of trading for him.

The problem with the original trade, from my perspective, was not really the cost but the expected benefit. Minnesota needed to use the 2020 season to kind of get their salary cap in order for the future but wound up making a few bad decisions along the way and this was the most glaring one. From the Vikings perspective I am sure that they saw this as a great opportunity to get a discount on a potential top end pass rusher to replace injured defensive end Danielle Hunter, but the Vikings were not one or two players away from a championship. This should have been a reset year for them, especially following the Diggs trade, but between using a franchise tag on their safety, extending a running back and this trade it was anything but.

By moving Ngakoue the team will shed $5.18 million in salary and at least come recover some of what they gave up to acquire him. Given that the Ravens are a good football team the drop in draft selection will wind up being close to two rounds, but better that than nothing at all. The Vikings should now have 11 draft selections next year to find a way to return to respectability.

I am not sure how much harm this offseason created within the locker room of Minnesota. They pushed tackle Riley Reiff into a large pay cut to make this move happen and while Reiff was always a pay cut candidate there is a big difference between doing the move in March versus the way it went down. In addition they could not come to terms with Anthony Harris and traded Stefon Diggs during the offseason Reportedly Hunter is now looking to become the highest paid defensive player in the NFL and that is a lot to ask considering he is coming off what sounds to be a major neck injury and has three years remaining on his contract.

The Vikings do have some parts that they could move if they go into a wheeling and dealing mode. Reiff would be a good target for any team with injuries on the line and Harris might also be a good piece for a playoff team.

Ultimately this is likely going to be an offseason for Minnesota to forget. They had done, in my opinion, a very good job in building a team that was to compete between 2018 and 2020. I thought that they saw the peak in 2019 and realized it would not be good enough so they began to make hard decisions about 2020 to better position themselves for 2021 to 2023. But they seemed to waver between a short term and long term focus and have ended up in a bad situation with a failing team with an expensive failing QB. Now they will have to continue to make some tough decisions in 2021 with this current roster concerning who should stay and who should go, when it should have mainly be solved in 2020.

The other possible loser in this may be Ngakoue though he will now get a chance to shine on a playoff team. Ngakoue took a $5 million+ pay cut to be traded out of Jacksonville and did not receive any concessions about trades or franchise tags. While he still is a productive pass rusher I lean toward people looking at his quick run in Minnesota as forgettable. If he does not stand out in Baltimore that will be too many different teams in a short period of time and it could hurt his eventual free agent prospects. If, however, he has a major part in a playoff run he could really be positioned well.

Baltimore winds up the winner here. They get a pass rusher for the important part of the year with the Vikings picking up most of the cost. They have the right to tag him next year if they want and if they want to let him walk will likely be in a position to receive a compensatory pick of a 3rd rounders back in 2021. If you were an AFC contender it would have been worth considering this trade just to block the Ravens from making it.

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates

NFL Offensive and Defensive Scoring Efficiency, Week 6

Every week or every other week I usually post a graph on Twitter which shows how a team is performing on offense and defense relative to their schedule. Since I often get a number of questions about them I figured I may as well throw them up in a post as well.

On offense a teams scoring efficiency tells you how much a team is scoring per game compared to how much their opponents allow per game in games where they don’t face you. This can sometimes show that a team scoring a ton of points but against a cupcake schedule may not be as great as you think and has taken advantage of a schedule. So for example the top scoring team is actually the Raiders at 27.4% above their schedules average. The worst unit, not surprisingly, is the Jets at -46.1%. These are not adjusted to take out defensive scores and special teams scores so the numbers can also be impacted by this (this also goes for defense).

On the defensive side we measure what percent below the average a team holds a team. When I posted this the other week a few people were caught off guard when I didn’t say Seattle’s defense was bad (they were right on the average line), but the fact is while Seattle gives up a ton of points the offenses they had played scored a ton of points on everyone. The best team has been the Ravens on this side holding teams to 31.4% below their average. The Cowboys are in a class all by themselves on defense allowing teams to score 51.6% over their average. Its an absurd number.

Plotted as a graph what we see is the following

Teams in the upper right have a good offense and defense. These are generally the best teams in the NFL and have the best chance at the playoffs minus bad luck/injuries.

Teams in the bottom right have a good offense and bad defense. These teams usually compete for the playoffs as offense is usually more important (some teams that are garbage point teams are usually an exception).

Teams in the top left have a good defense and bad offense. These teams I think are less likely to compete than those with the good offense/bad defense combo, usually requiring a bit more of an easy schedule for 16 games with some luck to advance.

The bottom left teams just stink. These are the teams mainly looking for draft picks not playoff spots.

Here is the data in table form. The total efficiency is the just the adding of the offense and defense while the predicted wins is a model based on past results. I probably should update those as its based on much more historical data and the NFL has changed a lot in that time so I really need to retest those.

TeamPoints ScoredPoints AllowedTotal EfficiencyProjected Wins
Buccaneers27.0%21.0%48.0%12.5
Ravens10.4%31.4%41.8%12.0
Chiefs18.2%21.1%39.3%11.7
Steelers15.2%19.0%34.2%11.2
Seahawks25.2%-3.8%21.3%10.0
Dolphins-0.3%21.2%20.9%10.0
Packers18.5%0.2%18.7%9.7
Cardinals-1.3%18.4%17.0%9.6
Patriots-9.2%25.0%15.8%9.5
Saints21.7%-8.1%13.6%9.3
Bears-15.1%25.4%10.3%9.0
Rams-10.9%20.1%9.2%8.9
Titans17.7%-8.8%8.9%8.8
Panthers-4.3%12.6%8.3%8.8
49ers5.3%2.3%7.5%8.7
Raiders27.4%-20.8%6.7%8.6
Colts-8.8%12.9%4.1%8.4
Bills10.1%-10.6%-0.4%7.9
Chargers-10.1%7.3%-2.8%7.7
Broncos-18.1%15.2%-2.8%7.8
Lions8.3%-11.3%-3.0%7.7
Texans0.5%-10.0%-9.5%7.1
Eagles9.9%-21.4%-11.4%6.9
Browns14.7%-26.4%-11.7%6.8
Vikings-3.9%-12.5%-16.4%6.4
Falcons-3.0%-15.9%-18.8%6.2
Bengals-17.7%-5.7%-23.4%5.8
Cowboys17.6%-51.6%-34.0%4.7
Football Team-26.6%-9.5%-36.1%4.6
Giants-33.4%-3.0%-36.4%4.6
Jaguars-18.0%-19.3%-37.3%4.5
Jets-46.1%-27.4%-73.5%1.0

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates

Jets Release Le’Veon Bell

The Jets have released running back Le’Veon Bell just one year and a few games after the team signed him to a four year, $52.5 million contract with $27 million guaranteed. Bell never clicked with the team from day 1 and after spending a few weeks on IR was somewhat critical of the team for his role in his return and that was that.

What the Jets are doing here is anyone’s guess. While Bell was not going to have much trade value they likely could have at least found someone to take on some of his contract in a trade. Even if no trade partner could be found the team could have held out hope that he would have been claimed on waivers if released after the trade deadline. The Jets season is going absolutely nowhere and they could have featured him for a few weeks in hopes that they bumped his value. Instead they just decided not to deal with it and cut him.

This fighting between the players and front office has been nightmarish for the Jets in the Adam Gase/Joe Douglas era. Last season they had a situation with Kelechi Osemele that saw them release him when he stated he was hurt which led to a grievance. They fined injured wide receiver Quincy Enunwa. Jamal Adams fought with the team until he was traded. Now this.

The Jets will carry a dead money charge of $15.062 million for Bell in 2020 and another $4 million in 2021. Bell’s contract does have offsets so the Jets will get a credit for any salary earned with another team this year. That will be under $650,000 if he signs for the minimum.

This may end up going down as the worst contract in the history of the Jets which is saying something. Bell will end up earning $27.531 million from the Jets for 17 active games and 863 rushing yards. He also added 500 yards receiving. The Jets free agent decisions in the Mike Maccagnan era ranging from an old Darrelle Revis to an ineffective Trumaine Johnson, to the injured CJ Mosley and Quincy Enunwa to this Bell deal have to rank among the worst runs ever for a franchise. That has seemingly continued into the Douglas era which has consisted of ill fated signings thus far of Ryan Kalil last summer and Breshad Perriman this year.

For Bell this signals the end of what really has been a three year ordeal dating back to his decision to not sign an extension with the Steelers and instead play on and then later sit out on a franchise tender. The Steelers offer was stronger than the Jets contract and would have prevented him from having this experience with the Jets.

The Jets meanwhile look like as much of a mess off the field as they are on it. They are way beyond the point of being able to spin anything positive for this move other than the most ardent supporters that will claim the Jets need the locker room to be harmonious. Its going to be a long road back for this team as they try to change from an expansion team to a competitive team in the NFL.

NFL Week 3 Valuations

The valuations for week 3 are now updated for all players. This week’s values are available for free on the valuations page and the full season numbers as well as results from week 1 and 2 are available for premium subscribers.

Here were this week’s top valued players.

PositionPlayerPositional ValueTotal Value
QBPatrick Mahomes$39,163,000$39,163,000
RBDerrick Henry$15,812,000$15,812,000
WRDeAndre Hopkins$21,017,000$21,017,000
WRKeenan Allen$20,773,000$20,773,000
TETravis Kelce$11,869,000$11,869,000
LTCharles Leno Jr.$18,560,000$19,052,000
RTDaryl Williams$16,149,000$16,193,000
CJason Kelce$14,760,000$14,760,000
GMike Iupati$13,854,000$14,313,000
GDavid Edwards$13,601,000$14,093,000
EdgeMyles Garrett$25,220,000$25,353,000
EdgeKhalil Mack$23,338,000$23,382,000
IDLJeffery Simmons$22,885,000$23,415,000
IDLAaron Donald$20,938,000$21,431,000
LBBobby Wagner$17,516,000$18,046,000
LBJamie Collins Sr.$16,101,000$16,593,000
CBDarqueze Dennard$19,402,000$19,897,000
CBLevi Wallace$18,961,000$19,491,000
CBXavien Howard$18,000,000$18,000,000
SHarrison Smith$17,188,000$17,761,000
SDuron Harmon$13,226,000$13,846,000
PRigoberto Sanchez$3,194,000$3,194,000
KStephen Gostkowski$4,449,000$4,449,000
LSJosh Harris$1,668,000$1,668,000

View Week 3 Player Valuations

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates

Breaking Down the 53 Man Rosters

While there may still be a little juggling of NFL rosters in the next 48 hours I wanted to take a look at some different aspects of the team now that most of the teams have their final rosters set for the year. Since we are still waiting on some key contracts to come in we will hold off on the financials until a little later this week but here are a few different aspects of the rosters in the NFL.

Rosters By Age

The average age of the NFL rosters this year is just 26.07 years old without QB’s and 26.17 with QB’s. It is clearly a young mans game with over 50% of the NFL no older than 25 this year. Here is the breakdown by age group.

Not including QB’s,  the oldest team in the NFL will be the Bears with a roster just under 26.9 years old. They are tied with the Ravens for the second most 30+ year old players with 13. The Saints lead the NFL in that category with 15.  The Dolphins will have the youngest team in the NFL at 25.16 years and just 1 player over 30. The Rams, Vikings, Browns, and Jaguars all come in no older than 25.5 in 2020.

TeamAvg. Age W/O QBAvg Age W/QB
Bears26.8926.95
49ers26.7026.65
Titans26.6726.74
Saints26.6526.93
Bills26.5226.45
Cardinals26.4926.41
Patriots26.4726.66
Eagles26.3526.30
Texans26.3326.37
Bengals26.3226.27
Ravens26.3026.28
Falcons26.2526.65
Jets26.2526.29
Seahawks26.1626.32
Lions26.1426.37
Chiefs26.1326.26
Raiders26.0926.16
Steelers26.0826.26
Panthers26.0626.05
Cowboys26.0626.16
Buccaneers26.0026.48
Chargers25.8825.89
Broncos25.8725.86
Football Team25.7925.89
Packers25.7125.84
Giants25.6625.76
Colts25.6225.85
Jaguars25.5025.45
Browns25.4325.53
Vikings25.4225.58
Rams25.4125.41
Dolphins25.1625.33
NFL Avg26.0726.17

Rosters by Draft Status

I always think one of the biggest misconceptions in the NFL is the length of time a draft pick sticks in the NFL and even more than that how long they contribute to the team that drafted them. Here is the breakdown of NFL drafts by round since 2016 and the percent of players still on a roster in 2020.

Round20162017201820192020
180.6%96.9%96.9%100.0%100.0%
281.3%84.4%93.8%100.0%100.0%
365.7%69.8%91.9%100.0%100.0%
458.5%64.9%78.4%94.4%100.0%
544.4%57.5%81.1%80.6%93.9%
639.1%41.2%55.6%73.2%77.1%
725.0%42.9%63.2%52.5%63.4%

Let’s go one step further and see just how many are still on the team who drafted them.

Round20162017201820192020
138.7%78.1%90.6%100.0%100.0%
243.8%68.8%81.3%100.0%100.0%
320.0%51.2%83.8%97.4%97.6%
424.4%45.9%73.0%91.7%100.0%
516.7%37.5%67.6%69.4%87.9%
66.5%23.5%31.1%65.9%77.1%
73.1%20.0%47.4%45.0%63.4%

The reality of the draft is really for most of the draft you are working with a 3 year window for the players to contribute in some manner. Teams probably should be focusing more on top 100 or so draft picks than the overall quantity of draft picks.

Here is how our rosters this year will break down by draft round.

Not surprisingly the biggest group of players in the NFL comes from the undrafted pool as that is a much larger group of players. That doesn’t mean that UDFA is an easy path to success (about 12% of all 2020 UDFAs actually made the team this year) but too often we discount those players due to their draft status. The thing I always find most interesting when doing this breakdowns is that the round 2 and 3 numbers are very similar.

The team with the most 1st round picks on their team this year is the Falcons with 17. The next closest has just 12. The Jets, Chiefs, and Rams all pull up the rear with just 5. As for UDFAs the Saints and Broncos have 21 players who started out undrafted. The Bengals have just 8 and rank last in that category. Here is the breakdown of each team’s roster by draft status.

TeamUDFARd 1Rd 2Rd 3Rd 4Rd 5Rd 6Rd 7
Saints21118122222
Broncos218793522
Jets195499460
Chiefs195968424
Panthers188748352
Titans1810745613
49ers1812574653
Jaguars176887536
Football Team1710468664
Lions169566827
Raiders168798422
Browns1611684742
Bears1510757843
Chargers159764445
Patriots1563106655
Packers157675855
Buccaneers1481154563
Ravens1410598461
Vikings147769626
Colts1471067443
Seahawks1410986934
Cowboys149979152
Rams145997426
Bills1366761034
Cardinals1310765456
Falcons1317356721
Eagles127965693
Dolphins128845668
Steelers1112795351
Texans1010885652
Giants99886567
Bengals871048864
NFL Avg.14.88.77.17.06.15.44.23.7

Homegrown Rosters

I define a homegrown player as someone who either was drafted by or signed as an undrafted free agent by their original team. The league average is just over 60%. The team with the most homegrown players are the Ravens and Vikings, who both have nearly 80% of their roster beginning their career with that team. Other teams over 70% are the Packers, Rams, and Cowboys.

The worst teams in this category are the Browns at just 43.1% followed closely by the Jets at 44.6%. These are two franchises that are run chaotically at the highest levels and are both hoping that new GMs make it happen this year. The Giants, Bills, and Cardinals are the other teams under 50%.

As for teams that select the best overall the Ravens and the Patriots always stand out and it is no different this year. The Ravens have 83 players on a NFL roster this year while the Patriots have 74. They are the only teams over 70. If you pull their own roster out of the mix they have 38 and 35 players on other rosters, the only teams over 30.  The Panthers and Jets are at the bottom of the charts with 44 and 45 respectively. The Panthers have just 16 outside of their own team.

TeamHomegrown% HomegrownOriginally SelectedSelected on Other rosters
Ravens4578.9%8338
Vikings4578.9%6621
Packers4475.9%6723
Rams4275.0%6220
Cowboys4173.2%6625
Patriots3969.6%7435
Jaguars4168.3%6221
Bengals3767.3%5821
Chargers3666.7%5115
Falcons3666.7%5418
Colts3665.5%5620
Steelers3464.2%4814
Seahawks3961.9%6021
49ers3761.7%6629
Saints3761.7%5922
Football Team3760.7%5720
Eagles3459.6%5824
Buccaneers3358.9%4916
Broncos3357.9%6128
Dolphins3256.1%5523
Lions3355.9%5522
Bears3254.2%5220
Titans2851.9%4719
Panthers2850.9%4416
Chiefs2950.9%5122
Raiders2850.0%6032
Texans2750.0%5528
Cardinals2748.2%4922
Bills2647.3%4620
Giants2746.6%4922
Jets2544.6%4520
Browns2543.1%5429
NFL Avg.34.260.1%56.822.7

Rosters By Snaps

The Bills come back with the most intact roster in the NFL with 82.7% of their snaps returning from 2019. They added what would amount to 22.9% of their snaps via free agency, trade, etc… so any contributions they get from rookies or players who were hurt last year is just gravy. The Colts are the only other team close to the Bills but they should come with an asterisk since they are benching their starting QB from last year. The Steelers and Bucs both will have a lot of stability as well but will rely on players who are rookies or coming back from injury.

Carolina only brings back 44.2% of their snaps from last year, the only team under 50%. They signed a ton of players who could provide nearly 36% of the lost snaps but they will still need 20% contribution from others. New England comes back with 54% but added almost nobody in free agency so they will need nearly 40% to come from rookies and injured players last year like Cam Newton.

Here is the breakdown of each team this year.

TeamReturning SnapsNew Vet SnapsShortfall
Bills82.7%22.9%-5.6%
Colts79.9%21.0%-1.0%
Steelers79.6%4.8%15.5%
Buccaneers77.9%6.1%16.0%
Texans77.7%12.6%9.7%
Saints76.6%13.7%9.6%
Chiefs76.4%11.9%11.7%
Packers76.3%4.4%19.3%
49ers76.2%4.7%19.1%
Cardinals75.9%19.8%4.3%
Eagles74.6%12.3%13.1%
Titans73.0%10.1%16.9%
Raiders72.7%28.9%-1.6%
Ravens72.4%9.8%17.8%
Vikings72.2%6.0%21.8%
Rams72.1%7.1%20.8%
Falcons71.0%15.2%13.7%
Bears68.6%23.6%7.7%
Chargers68.0%19.9%12.1%
Jaguars66.7%16.2%17.0%
Bengals66.3%21.5%12.2%
Giants65.6%26.4%8.1%
Broncos65.1%25.1%9.8%
Browns64.7%25.2%10.1%
Football Team64.0%24.2%11.9%
Seahawks63.7%24.5%11.8%
Cowboys63.1%17.8%19.1%
Lions62.2%22.8%15.0%
Dolphins61.7%25.3%13.0%
Jets57.1%26.7%16.2%
Patriots54.1%6.7%39.2%
Panthers44.2%35.7%20.2%
NFL Avg.69.5%17.3%13.3%

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates

Yannick Ngakoue Headed to the Vikings

The Yannick Ngakoue saga appears to be over with the Vikings agreeing to send a 2nd round pick and another conditional pick to Jacksonville for the star pass rusher.

The landing spot here was a major surprise. Minnesota had spent most of the offseason getting their salary cap a bit more under control and seemed to have an eye on the future. This move will completely change that dynamic.

We estimate the Vikings to have just $12.5 million in cap space, which is not enough to fit Ngakoue’s one year contract which is worth $17.788 million. This is all assuming that the Jaguars are not eating any salary as part of the trade. When the Texans, in a similar situation with Jadeveon Clowney, moved their star they paid half the deal to facilitate a trade. I would think that is unlikely in this case but it would make this much more appealing from the Vikings perspective for what sure seems like a out of nowhere decision from the team.

If the Jaguars are not picking up salary, then that means to just execute the trade the Vikings will need to create over $5 million in cap room. They will also need room to function once the regular season starts so most likely they will need to create $8 million in space. Ngakoue’s number is locked in for the year unless he agreed to a paycut which would seem very unlikely.

To create that space the team would likely look to restructure some deals to push cap into the future. There are only two cuts they can make with notable savings, left tackle Riley Reiff ($11M savings), and safety Harrison Smith ($8.9M savings), neither of whom would seem likely given they should be starting for the Vikings this season.

The Vikings don’t have a ton of spots to create big cap space with the most likely candidates for a restructure are Anthony Barr and Kirk Cousins. Restructuring Barr’s contract would allow them to create just under $7 million while Cousins would free up $5.6 million. Both could be a bit higher if they added void seasons to the contracts. Other options would be to extend Smith or double down and push some money into next season for Reiff and Smith.

In any case all this does is push money into the future for the Vikings where they were already on a tight cap. They currently have the 9th least projected cap space in the NFL in 2021 and now have two franchise players to make a decision on. Tagging Ngakoue a second time would cost $21.345 million while tagging Anthony Harris a second time would cost $13.7 million. Minnesota does have roster flexibility in terms of being able to release veterans or restructure veteran deals next year.

The trade of Ngakoue pretty much finalizes the complete tear down of a Jaguars defense that for one year fooled the league and the team that they were good enough to carry the team from a perennial cellar dweller into a title contender. Things fell apart for a number of reasons in Jacksonville and Ngakoue refused to play for them this year. To get a 2nd round pick and a conditional second pick is pretty fair for the team at this stage. They may have had better options in the offseason but the two sides seemed to be butting heads at that point and the Jaguars were reportedly dug in on some things that they were not going to get.

The Jaguars cap space this year will rise to around $33 million and they will now project to be 2nd in the NFL in cap room next year. In a normal year that would be around $105 million but with the cap expected to fall dramatically it will be closer to $65 million. In any event it will be enough to retool the team in free agency either next year or in the future.

Ngakoue just wanted out from the Jaguars so I think he would be okay with this trade. Is it the most ideal landing spot? Probably not. While playing alongside Danielle Hunter may open up a lot of opportunities, Hunter has had 14.5 sacks in each of the last two years and is going to be looked at as the star if he is healthy. Ngakoue ideally would have been in a better spot on a team where he would stand out alone, so he will need a monster season here to do that.

Ngakoue will look for a deal next season that pays over $20 million a year. That puts Minnesota in a difficult spot for an extension since they had signed Hunter to one of the most team friendly contracts in the NFL at just $14.4 million a year. Hunter still has four years to go on that deal but one would think if they find a way to make a long term deal with Ngakoue then they will need to give their homegrown player a massive raise even though there will be three years left. The Vikings historically will rework deals with two years remaining.

Next year will certainly be some offseason for the Vikings. Ngakoue and Harris are both coming off franchise tenders. Only one can get tagged again. Dalvin Cook is a free agent and would have been a franchise tag candidate as well. Now there are two in front of him. The team also will have decisions to make on a number of veteran players as they figure out how to navigate their salary cap and the Covid impact on that cap number.

Add OTC to Your Google News Feed to stay up to date with our updates.