With the regular season now a few days away and rosters mainly set I wanted to take a look at how the undrafted free agent process played out this year and what we can gather, if anything, from the guarantees they received. These are based on the rosters that were in place on the morning of September 1^st and does not include any changes that may have happened later that day.

First let’s look at the rate of players who are still on their original UDFA contract for their original team. This includes players on IR.

The Vikings lead the NFL with nearly 44% of their UDFA signings making the team this year, which is pretty impressive. The Vikings are a team that is cap strapped in the future and this may have played a role in seeing the need to develop younger cheap players to fill in the depth over the next two seasons. The Bucs come in second with 42% of their undrafted players still there. This is a team that has really shifted to keeping homegrown players over the last few years and developing undrafted talent is one of the ways you do that. Finally the Browns kept 35% of their players. The Browns, like the Vikings, have some future cap troubles.

Dallas and the Raiders had a total whiff, not keeping, at least initially, any of their players. That’s not a great look for either team, but especially Vegas considering they signed 20 players this offseason. Nine teams only kept one player and the Titans being on that list is really surprising to me.

When we bring Practice Squads into account we can see the differences for some teams as they clearly are seeing this as a chance to develop without taking up a roster spot at least at the start of the season.

The Commanders made it a priority to find ways to keep working with a good chunk of their signings this year. A few teams with small undrafted classes show up here along with the Vikings and Bucs. The Jets also had a pretty high rate following a similar path as the Commanders by using the practice squad as a tool to further evaluate their undrafted players.

The Titans are the big lose here with only 22% of the UDFAs on their team. That to me is wild considering how bad the team was last year. The same goes for the Giants with only 29% making the roster in some form.

Now let’s look at what we can learn from the salary guarantee ranges for the undrafted players.

Not surprisingly the big guaranteed salary led to the highest retention rates. Only 23% of the players with $200,000 or more of a guarantee are out of the NFL. The guarantees for a majority of these contracts are offset by practice squad salaries if the players are released so the teams are more likely to keep those players since it is already a sunk cost. When we get between $150K and $200K we only have 32% out of the NFL and that goes up to 37% when looking at a $100K guarantee.

The oddball number is the $75K to $100K group that saw 60% flame out of the NFL already but they did have a rather high percentage make the 53 man. I guess it was a hit or miss category, but this year it is a pretty small sample of players so I would chalk it more up to that.

Once we get below $50K the numbers spike dramatically. Generally, it hovers right around the 60% mark for being out of the NFL and the percentages making the active rosters really drops. That is probably a signal that if you are being offered guarantees in these ranges it is probably best to really focus on the team you sign with. Probably better to sign with a team like the Bucs, Vikings or Commanders, who have a high roster rate, even if the guarantee is slightly less than coming from a team like the Titans. The guarantee doesn’t offer you enough protection to slip to the practice squad.

The Micah Parsons numbers are in via Tom Pelissero and this is indeed an eye popping contract for Parsons. The contract has a base value of $186 million over four added contract years with $136 million guaranteed, $112 million of which is a new money guarantee, and $120 million fully guaranteed at signing. These are by far the biggest numbers for a non-QB and will set new standards for superstars to aim for.

The $46.5 million annual value represents a 13.5% jump over TJ Watt’s $41 million per year which was the prior high water mark. When pegged to the salary cap, this contract makes Parsons the second highest paid defensive player of all time, ranking second to only Michael Strahan’s 1999 contract with the Giants which would be worth $47.6 million per year when inflated for salary cap growth since that time. Parson’s contract also only runs for four years which is one year less than just about any other young player, giving him a better chance at another massive payday than any others in his age group. Parson’s contract represents the second massive edge contract signed this year, with Myles Garrett receiving a raise of 17.6% over Nick Bosa a few months ago. Two jumps like this at the position in one season is generally unheard of, but Ill add some context to that in a bit.  

From a cash flow perspective the numbers for Parsons really stand out once we get to the second new year of the contract. Here is how the new money cash breaks down:

While Parsons does not get the mega payday in 2025, he will earn 12.3% more than Garrett through the 1^st new contract year, 15% more than Watt by year 2, 14.6% more than Watt in year 3 and finally 16.3% more than Garrett over four seasons.

Parsons is the only one of the three players to earn more than $100 million in new guaranteed salary though on a yearly basis that will be less than Watt, who signed a three year contract extension with the Steelers.

The Packers opted for a double option structure and I am assuming the addition of two void years to deal with the salary cap numbers of such a massive contract. Assuming that Parsons has the options picked up, which is highly likely, here is what the salary cap breakdown and dead money looks like with the contract.

For the most part the salary cap structure works strongly in Parson’s favor. The dead money in the first four years of the contract is so high that it makes it difficult to release him if he fails to perform up to standards. From a practical standpoint that means he will earn every penny of his $120 million injury guarantee. While the Packers could try to avoid the full salary in 2028 via threatening a post June 1 release (it would be $36M in dead money in 2028 and $44.7M in 2029) that would also require them to carry Parsons at a $64M cap charge that year until June. While the salary cap is increasing that would still be a giant number to handle. So, at the very least, he should earn more than just the guaranteed portion even if not the full amount through 2028.

If he continues to play well the timing also works out great for him. In 2028, Jordan Love carries a $75.8 million cap charge and will be extension eligible. Depending on the timing of the extension Parson’s should be a prime candidate for a restructured deal which will only increase his 2029 salary cap charge and dead money if cut. That immediately should move him into the category of likely extension candidate in 2029.

I know the question many have is why would Green Bay be so eager to get a deal like this done while Dallas couldn’t do it? While there are probably other factors involving Dallas, from the Packers perspective it comes down to the way they likely internally value the contract. While I am valuing this contract as a $46.5 million contract extension, and that is how Parsons certainly views it, the Packers are viewing this as a new five year contract worth $210 million, or $42 million a season.

Teams that trade for players view the old money in a contract as different than existing teams. They see this as an early signing in free agency, basically the same as signing a tagged player to a new contract and giving two first rounders in return. They don’t have an prior investment in the player and view it all as a new beginning. This is a major reason why we see so many players quickly sign new deals post trade, often making them the highest paid player at a position.  From the Packers perspective here is how the Parsons deal lines up against Watt and Garrett.

You can see in this situation how closely the overall numbers for Parsons line up with the new money for Watt and Garrett. Essentially, they see this as how they would have to negotiate with a free agent to get him to sign a top market contract at EDGE. That makes the gigantic raise they gave Parsons from a new money perspective justifiable and an easy decision to make.

This, of course, has zero bearing on Parsons and how he sees the deal. From his perspective he got the massive raise he wanted. The question becomes when the next big EDGE player comes up. Often traded players that sign these kind of contracts block the market in large part because other teams fight back on the valuation of the deal. That will be interesting to see when player’s like that come up for a new contract.

This is an avenue for agents to exploit when representing superstar players, typically under rookie contracts though it can apply to veteran deals as well. The hard part is that the original team holds all of the cards in these situations. The facts were that Parsons was under contract to the Cowboys and there could be heavy fines and salary loss if he refused to play. In addition, Dallas held the rights to tag Parsons for the next two years if they could not come to an agreement. For whatever reason Parsons side was able to manipulate the situation in a way few others have been able to do and put themselves in a spot where they could do a deal with an outside team that was going to be willing to listen to a massive number proposition. Will others do the same?  Only time will tell.

Rarely in the NFL are there stunning events. Today was one of those rare days as the Dallas Cowboys traded EDGE rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers for two first round picks after months of bickering over a contract extension. Never in a million years would I have expected this to happen. The way this dragged out was basically the same as every other annual holdout/hold in we see in Dallas and every time in ends with an extension and a number of people saying “if they had just done this sooner they would have saved millions”. They certainly saved millions today but lost a superstar player in the process.

I am not sure what really drove this trade. If you were running the team and ever thought that this would be the end game, the trade should have occurred either during the draft or by the start of training camp. To have this kind of situation drag out all camp long and then right before the start of the season trade the player is kind of crazy. It sends a bad message to the other players on the team at a time they should be really locked in on getting ready for week 1. It’s demoralizing.

This whole saga feels like Jerry Jones was upset over some contracts that have gone sideways for him the last few years. Bad outcomes on contracts happen all the time. You have to ask yourself if the process of extending was bad or you just landed some bad luck with injuries. In the case of Dallas it is more the latter than the former. Parsons agency did make a few public statements this year which did poke at the Cowboys decision making. These were not made by Parson’s specific agent but they basically took a deserved victory lap for the way they manipulated the Dak Prescott negotiations to get two massive contracts for Prescott which have not been a good ROI for Dallas. Maybe that played a role here that Jones needed to get one over on the agents because it is hard to see the logic here. Jones made some comments about valuing the run which is nonsense. If that was the case they never would have drafted Parsons in the first place nor would they have engaged in extension talks.

The money Parsons will make in Green Bay is gigantic. His $47 million year extension is massive. It is a near 15% raise in annual value over TJ Watt and even prior to Watt’s contract the money at the position exploded with Myles Garrett landing a $40 million per year extension a few months ago. It is very rare to have a season with two major market movers at the same position in the same year but that is what we got with Garrett taking the market to $40 million and Parsons to $47 million.

The Packers probably view the number differently than others due to the fact they had no prior investment and see this more as a five year contract worth around $42 million a year. Others in the NFL may try to make that argument too, but from Parsons perspective it doesn’t make a difference. For him it is $47 million a year and this is the way you manipulate the numbers in a trade similar to what Khalil Mack was able to do in Chicago seven years ago.

It is far to question the Packers decision to part with two first round picks as well as a player they already paid a significant amount of salary out to but Parsons is a special player and the Packers do have a good young core that can make it easier to drop draft picks. While it may not be a home run it is a move that is meant to maximize the Packers chances the next two years and then they can deal with the fallout from the trade in 2027.

For Dallas the opposite is true. This minimizes their chances to compete now and requires some great draft picks to come out from this. Sure they saved a bunch of money but it is not like they are going to spend it on free agents in the future as Dallas generally avoids free agency like the plague. I don’t know if Dallas is a real competitor this year or not but if these two picks do not lead to Dallas drafting a good young QB next year or the year after I am not sure what the point will be. Dallas had leverages here and let it all vanish basically getting talked into a trading away a player they probably should have not traded in 2025.  

Though the NFL teams still have a few days before they have to count all players on the salary cap, we have made the change early so you can all get a good estimate for where teams actually stand with the salary cap in 2025. A number of teams are currently estimated to be over or nearly over the cap for this year. Those teams are the Giants, Falcons, Bills, Texans, and Bears. They will likely be making some salary related decisions in the coming days regarding restructures, extensions, injury settlements, or renegotiations. They have until the start of the season to fully comply with the cap.

We are not yet including these salary cap space estimates in our 2026 salary cap figures. I will make a note of it when we do, but typically that will be the 2nd week of the regular season as the 2025 cap figures for each team should stabilize by then and make the carryover estimates more accurate.

NFL cutdown day is just around the corner as one of the toughest days of the year comes on August 26^th. Every team in the NFL will need to be down to 53 active players by 4PM that day. Somewhere around 1,050 players will be cut between today and the end of the business day on Tuesday. Here is a look at how many moves each team will need to make between now and then.

It is important to note that rarely will the roster at 4PM Tuesday actually be the final 53 man roster for a team. Players are not paid a weeks salary until the Tuesday of game week which means teams are under no obligation to anyone. Teams will make waiver claims for some of the released players and have to make a corresponding release to someone who “made the 53 man”. Teams will activate players who did not report and have to make another release to account for that. Teams will see veterans who are cut and perhaps sign them as well. The real 53 man roster really hits on September 2^nd at 4PM.

There will always be some releases that also catch people off guard. Usually these are veteran players on lower cost contracts who were expected to make the team. These releases are often done due to various circumstances regarding the team they play for. Though rules have changed a bit regarding injury returns (teams are allowed to designate two players to return from IR if placed on IR during camp and designated to return) most teams want flexibility with the return from IR rule. That requires putting an injured player on the 53 man for a day and then placing him on the reserve list the following day. To make room for that player often a veteran, who is not subject to waivers, will be cut for a day or two and then re-signed when the injured player is actually placed on IR.

Many teams also have no intention of guaranteeing a veteran player’s salary when that veteran is more of a bubble player. Teams want the flexibility of cutting a veteran during the year with limited financial penalty. A base salary guarantee for the year kicks in if the veteran player is on the 53 man roster for the 1st game of the year. To avoid that base guarantee teams will cut a veteran player, place him on the practice squad for a week, elevate him from the practice squad for week 1, and then sign him to a regular contract in week 2. A contract signed after week 1 does not carry the full salary guarantee protection.

Non-veteran players who are cut are all subject to waivers. Teams will have until noon on the 27th to make a claim on those players. If claimed their contracts will transfer to the team who claimed them. If they go unclaimed they are eligible to be signed to a Practice Squad. Teams can start to fill their practice squad as soon as the waiver period expires. Generally, teams are most active on the first day or two following cutdown when it comes to waiver claims. Sometimes teams will stash a player on the 53 man with hopes of moving him to their practice squad by sneaking him through waivers next week or after the first game when teams are more focused on prepping for their games and not looking to bring another guy in. These are effective roster management strategies for teams.

Another important thing to note is that cutdown day does not mark the change of offseason salary cap rules where just the top 51 players count against the cap. That does not happen until the first day of the season at which point every player on a reserve list, practice squad, active roster, etc…will count against the salary cap. At OTC we will make that switch earlier to give a more accurate picture of where every team stands with the salary cap. It is possible that some teams will show they are over the cap when we do that. Technically those teams are all fine within the official NFL rules but it can give you a better idea of who does and does not need to make contract modifications to comply with the salary cap when the NFL changes the rules.

Finally, please bear with us as we work through all of the roster changes. Hopefully we will work through them quickly but it can take some extra time to process so many transactions. The practice squad will also take some time and there is often a big delay between a team releasing on X a practice squad or leaking to media members about signings and then actually signing the player. Rather than getting names wrong, which can often happen, we generally wait until the signing is official to get them onto the roster for the team.

The Broncos spiced up a Saturday morning by agreeing to a four year, $102 million extension with Zach Allen. Let’s take a look as to how this contract stacks up to his peers.

APY

At $25.5 million APY, Allen becomes the third highest paid interior defensive lineman in the league. I had previously scoped out a range between $20 million and $26 million that Allen’s next contract would likely fall under, and it’s no surprise to me that he hit almost to the upper bound here, short only to Milton Williams, the only IDL in this tier to get his contract in unrestricted free agency.

Guarantee Structure

Full guarantees at signing lag considerably behind Allen’s peers, ranking only 8th. Allen partially makes up for this by getting a strong expedited vesting guarantee for 2027 at $15.75 million. At about 58.8%, this doesn’t quite match the percentage of likely guarantees that Milton Williams, Nnamdi Madubuike, or Quinnen Williams got. But it is just enough to add some considerable friction against the Broncos from moving on, who would take a slightly negative pre-June 1 cap dollar hit in 2027 of $2.43 million.

Allen also agreed to considerable per game roster bonuses, equating to $45,000 per game in the first three seasons, and $60,000 per game in the fourth. However, he does offset this by getting guarantees, either full or vested, on the first two seasons, even if he still has to earn them.

Cash Flow

Allen’s $13.75 million in new money at signing before the extension begins ranks 5th among his peers. In the first season, pay is consistent with all of the upper tier (and even distant clubhouse leader Chris Jones), which is very tightly ranged between $31 million and $32 million. But for the rest of the contract, his running cash totals are consistent with the APY of being third in the league.

Overall thoughts

This contract may surprise some who don’t follow the Broncos closely, because Allen has been overlooked by fans and media as a whole since he arrived in Denver. He did make a 2nd team AP All Pro last season. But he has yet to get a similar honor from the PFWA, nor has he been named to a Pro Bowl, and he did not make the top 10 in Madden’s ratings. But this contract should force more to pay attention, especially given that he led the league in snaps among interior defensive linemen by four percentage points last season, and was particularly noted for his extraordinary ability to make contact with the quarterback.

I think this contract is aggressively fair for the Broncos. Allen trades off just a bit of early security compared to his peers, and in turn gets a contract that is competitive to what his market value likely would have been given the similarities to Milton Williams, who signed as a free agent. It’s clear that Denver highly values Allen as a key long term piece of the defense, and commensurately rewarded him for it.

With Allen extended, the questions don’t end at interior defensive line for Denver. John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach are both on the final season of their contracts, and the Broncos will have to weigh how much they want to invest at that position, especially after also extending DJ Jones earlier this season. Third round rookie Sai’vion Jones should also be observed for any progress. Nik Bonitto is also the most likely Bronco to get the top priority for an extension, and if he’s waiting to see how Micah Parsons and Trey Hendrickson shape the top five edge rusher pay, that could mean that franchise tag caliber pay could be in play.

It is excellent to see the Broncos continue to be aggressively proactive in getting ahead of the market with their best players. I pushed for Patrick Surtain II to get a market shattering contract as soon as they were allowed to, they did so, and within less than a year afterward, he got named Defensive Player Of The Year…and amazingly is now only the 5th highest paid cornerback by APY. No contract negotiation can ever be guaranteed to be taken care of swiftly, but under George Paton and Sean Payton this is more likely to be the norm instead of the exception.

This article is cross posted from Broncos Contracts. Feel free to take a visit to see contract and roster analysis tailored more deeply toward the Denver Broncos.

One of the more bizarre contract stories comes out of Las Vegas with the Raiders publicly announcing the release of DT Christian Wilkins from a $110 million contract with nearly $83 million in guarantees signed just a year ago.  Wilkins had been injured last season and should have over $35 million in injury protection but the Raiders are voiding all guarantees in the contract due to issues with how he has treated his rehab process, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The union will file a grievance on Wilkins behalf to recover that money

The whole situation regarding Wilkins comes across as odd. The team converted over $20 million of Wilkins salary into a roster bonus back in February for salary cap relief which was paid out in late March. Clearly at the time the Raiders and Wilkins were on the same page regarding his injury. Sometime in early June, the Raiders must have told Wilkins that if he did not have a second surgery on his foot that he would have the remaining guarantees on his contract voided. Here is the statement from the Raiders regarding the release:

We have decided that it is in the best interests of the organization to move on from Christian Wilkins and he has been informed of his release from the team. This franchise has a Commitment to Excellence on and off the field. With no clear path or plan for future return to play from Christian, this transaction is necessary for the entire organization to move forward and prepare for the new season.

Essentially the Raiders argument seems to be that Wilkins is not following the rehab treatment that was given to him by the team physician and is not making a good faith effort to play. Players always have the right to a 2^nd opinion but reading between the lines of the team’s statement regarding his release, it seems that he did not provide a satisfactory rehab plan to the team without obtaining another medical procedure. All of the guarantees in Raiders contracts require a player to follow “reasonable and customary rehabilitation or treatment” in order to have the guarantee stand. By not following such a plan the player would be in default and the guaranteed protection would vanish. With those guarantees voided and Wilkins in no condition to play football, the Raiders would be able to release him due to injury.

This whole issue seems suspect on the part of the Raiders. Wilkins is clearly hurt. He was clearly following a rehab plan as of March. He had his salary guaranteed in 2025 and 2026. He reportedly was at OTAs. He didn’t commit a crime or refuse to show up to camp. Was there simply no follow up on his end (essentially finding a credible medical opinion that surgery is not required) that would allow the Raiders to do this on effectively a technicality?  Did he refuse to submit to physician exams at the teams request in another technical breach?

If the Raiders are successful with their voiding of guarantees here it really does open a can of worms for some players to deal with. A few months ago, Derek Carr declined surgery while on the Saints despite a large guarantee on his salary. Carr was not certain he wanted to play in 2026 (or 2025 for that matter) and there were some concerns the surgery was not going to allow him to play even if he wanted to do so. Carr opted to decline the surgery and voluntarily retire, giving up around $30 million in the process.

While it is certainly Wilkins responsibility to do everything in his power to return to playing football there should be questions about what the likelihood is of such surgeries being successful and if the probabilities are very low and risks outweigh the rewards the injury guarantee really should be honored. That is not to say that this is the case here or with Carr but seeing back to back contracts put in jeopardy due to potential surgery is a bit alarming.

Wilkins’ salary cap charge at the moment should drop from $18.137 million to $9.925 million. Next year it will drop from $37.6 million to $29.775 million. That is all dead money associated with the two bonuses that he received from the Raiders. The next question is what cap charges will there be from the grievance, if any?

Typically, when a player files a grievance against a team, 40% of the grievance counts against the salary cap. That would be a significant charge. However, it sounds as if the grievance filed by the NFLPA is a non-injury grievance that was related to the interpretation of the default language in the contract not a standard injury grievance that would be filed after a player was released. In this case, a financial award is likely not being sought at the moment so my guess is that there will be no charge until that grievance is resolved. If Wilkins wins the grievance then his cap number will increase by $35.25 million which will have the Raiders scrambling for cap room.  

The other possibility in all of this is that the Raiders are simply looking for an alternative way out of a bad contract that was showing less and a less chance having any return. The signing of Wilkins to a contract of this magnitude was questionable at best and the GM who spearheaded the signing has been replaced. Sometimes when you are trying to change the culture around a team, one of the worst things is a player on a bloated contract that you do not see playing in the future.

During the grievance process the sides will engage in settlement discussions and perhaps the Raiders hope here is simply that they can settle for pennies on the dollar and that Wilkins would rather have closure about this rather than have things drag out. While nothing has been reported about him possibly being open to forfeiture of the large bonus he was paid earlier this year perhaps they will argue that Wilkins breached his contract rather than just defaulting his guarantees and that could open up the chance of recovering some of that salary. That could lead to a settlement of keeping the bonus or perhaps his full salary for 2025 while avoiding any responsibility for money in 2026. That would, in the grand scheme of things, be a win for the Raiders. The Raiders really have little to lose going this route since they owed him a bunch of guaranteed salary and if they can get out of any of it, it is worth their time to pursue this.

Wilkins best hope in all of this would be to pass a physical administered by a neutral party. That would certainly seem to prove that whatever he was doing is putting him in a position to play football. That might be unlikely given his foot injury. These statements made by Raiders head coach Pete Carroll back in May, just weeks before the guarantees were voided, should work in Wilkins favor:

“Every day he’s here early, working hard, but we’re still working. He’s not ready to get back out. We’re in the midst of a long, challenging process. Fortunately, there’s a lot of time, and we’re going to take every bit of it. We’ve really tried to be really diligent in the way we’ve worked it and the way we’ve wanted it and all that, and he’s been on board the whole time. But it has been challenging”

That certainly seems to show commitment on his end to coming back and something big needed to change over those next few weeks which seems like a pretty quick change in direction from the Raiders. Whatever that was should determine if Wilkins is succrddful or not in recovering most or all of his salary.