2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC North

2015 ECV Expected Outcomes:  NFC North

NFC East   |   AFC East

NFC West   |   AFC West

NFC South   |   AFC South

As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season.  Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy.  ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team.  I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up.  I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision.  As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.

I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more.  First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low.  At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot.  Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website.  As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.

Green Bay Packers:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Aaron Rodgers 97.3% NO
Jordy Nelson 97.3% NO
Datone Jones 96.2% NO
Morgan Burnett 93.0% NO
Sam Shields 91.8% NO
Clay Matthews 89.6% NO
Nick Perry 71.0% NO
TJ Lang 65.5% NO
Josh Sitton 58.1% NO
Mike Neal 51.5% NO
Brad Jones 38.5% YES
AJ Hawk 28.3% YES
Julius Peppers 22.9% YES
Mason Crosby 22.8% YES

Detroit Lions:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Eric Ebron 99.9% NO
Matt Stafford 98.4% NO
Ezekial Ansah 97.9% NO
Golden Tate 96.5% NO
Calvin Johnson 89.7% NO
Glover Quin 78.7% NO
Brandon Pettigrew 78.0% NO
Riley Reiff 68.8% NO
Joique Bell 67.6% NO
Reggie Bush 57.2% NO
Stephen Tulloch 45.0% YES
DeAndre Levy 42.7% YES
Jason Jones 38.2% YES
James Ihedigbo 26.0% YES

Chicago Bears:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Kyle Fuller 99.9% NO
Kyle Long 96.7% NO
Jay Cutler 94.2% NO
Tim Jennings 91.1% NO
Lamarr Houston 83.9% NO
Jared Allen 83.7% NO
Brandon Marshall 78.2% NO
Shea McClellin 76.8% NO
Matt Slauson 70.1% NO
Jermon Bushrod 65.9% NO
Willie Young 62.8% NO
Martellus Bennett 57.7% NO
Robbie Gould 51.0% NO
Matt Forte 34.9% YES

Minnesota Vikings:

Player Expected Outcome Cut? Correct?
Anthony Barr 99.9% NO
Kyle Rudolph 99.8% NO
Linval Joseph 98.0% NO
Everson Griffen 97.9% NO
Sharrif Floyd 97.0% NO
Xavier Rhodes 96.2% NO
Brandon Fusco 96.1% NO
Matt Kalil 84.6% NO
Harrison Smith 65.1% NO
Captain Munnerlyn 62.8% NO
Adrian Peterson 62.0% NO
Phil Loadholt 59.3% NO
Brian Robison 58.0% NO
Greg Jennings 53.7% NO
John Sullivan 49.2% YES
Matt Cassel 48.7% YES
Jerome Felton 35.0% YES
Charlie Johnson 24.3% YES
Chad Greenway 20.0% YES

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.