Young Player Contributions in 2023

With the NFL season winding down I wanted to take a look at see what teams are getting the most contributions from players that they drafted and/or originally signed as undrafted free agents over the last four seasons. For this I am only looking at players who played offensive or defensive snaps with the snaps coming from their original team. Here is the breakdown of snaps:

TeamRd 1-3Rd 4-7UDFAsTotal
Packers6,2816,69640913,386
Rams4,2185,9262,82512,969
Buccaneers7,6492,8721,51312,034
Colts6,6454,53063211,807
Commanders5,9205,770311,693
Bears6,6763,96182011,457
Cowboys5,1713,4402,77811,389
Chiefs6,2794,40262411,305
Chargers6,8063,84542511,076
Lions7,6802,1091,17110,960
Jets6,2832,3011,86210,446
Jaguars8,2251,63636610,227
Seahawks6,1603,36159910,120
Falcons6,4382,1401,53910,117
Vikings4,4284,92571510,068
Ravens7,1502,2804079,837
Titans4,7441,5013,4609,705
Giants6,3922,7764369,604
Patriots4,7303,4718349,035
Browns4,8553,4394408,734
Eagles5,6101,1251,8118,546
Bengals6,5391,6902038,432
Bills5,3292,5523578,238
49ers2,9555,190678,212
Broncos5,3481,6351,2198,202
Texans5,5792,1354288,142
Steelers5,6062,0004768,082
Saints5,4701,0051,4567,931
Panthers5,5121,6346017,747
Raiders4,3672,8683327,567
Dolphins5,689881,5517,328
Cardinals4,3862,5102787,174

The NFL average this year was about 9,700 snaps played. The team with the fewest snaps played by their own young players was the Cardinals with just 7,174 snaps while the team with the most was the Packers with over 13,000 snaps coming from their own young players.  

While snaps don’t necessarily mean a good player and in many cases may just be snaps being filled due to injury or poor roster construction it does at least show the type of commitment a team has made to trying to improve by building around their own scouting and amassing draft selections. It should give some hope to bad teams for the future since they have young players gaining experience and at least seem to have some pipeline for the future.

The teams at the peak of this list would be the Packers, Rams, Bucs, Colts, Commanders, Bears, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, and Lions. Clearly not all of these teams are good (a few are downright bad) but if they can continue to get young players like this contributing they have a chance to get better and/or at least maintain their status if they are already a good team.

The teams at the bottom of the list would be more alarming unless they are simply missing snaps due to a rash of injuries. Arizona has been a mess for years and their new front office and staff have a lot of snaps to find in the near future for their team to avoid having to keep signing guys to one year deals in free agency. Miami is clearly all in this year and is doing it with a lot of veterans and free agent players. As for the future?  They need to hope those veterans keep playing well. The Raiders, Panthers, and Steelers are next among the troubled teams and its fair to say that the Steelers, Texans, 49ers, and Broncos have not gotten much out of their last few years of classes.

In looking a little closer at the numbers I thought that the most interesting aspect was how teams are performing when we focus on players selected from 2020 to 2022. Why did I look at this time period?  First year players don’t often perform at a very high level as a rookie season usually carries a learning curve with it and you also don’t necessarily get merit based snaps. While some of that also carries over to players selected in 2022 usually by the mid point of the year teams have adjusted their use of those players who are underperforming the draft slot.

Here is a breakdown of snaps from players selected between 2020-2022.

TeamRd 1-3Rd 4-7UDFAsTotal
Commanders5,2835,317010,600
Cowboys4,5753,2892,38410,248
Chiefs5,2854,19762210,104
Packers4,4635,1042019,768
Chargers5,4133,5113409,264
Rams1,7744,6192,8259,218
Colts5,3732,9636328,968
Jets5,3901,9791,2688,637
Ravens6,2621,9952728,529
Jaguars6,8661,1672928,325
Buccaneers5,7361,9715158,222
Vikings3,2264,79908,025
Lions5,0511,7601,1667,977
Bears4,3392,9235157,777
49ers2,5604,969677,596
Falcons4,4511,5441,5397,534
Broncos4,7551,6359857,375
Eagles4,6121,0011,5237,136
Titans2,9709613,0797,010
Seahawks4,0922,4843136,889
Giants4,3752,310346,719
Dolphins5,437881,1766,701
Browns4,2922,2501336,675
Bengals5,0781,3961986,672
Patriots3,8971,9158286,640
Saints4,8321941,4566,482
Bills3,4832,5523576,392
Steelers3,4011,8234765,700
Raiders2,9781,8703325,180
Panthers3,5291,1963005,025
Texans3,3238584284,609
Cardinals2,1281,53703,665

Here is how this looks against the teams record this year.

I also wanted to break the data into quartiles, looking at snaps with and without UDFA’s.

All SnapsDraft SnapsWin % AllWin % Draft
3,665 to 6,6643,665 to 5,5900.4000.425
6,665 to 7,4545,591 to 6,5580.5440.536
7,455 to 8,5556,558 to 7,9040.5830.538
8,556+7,904+0.4720.500

I don’t think any of the numbers here are exactly significant in any statistical way but I do find them interesting and I think helps illustrate the importance that comes from finding a minimum level of contribution from every year’s draft class and not falling into the trap where we abandon the drafts due to excessive trading or refusing to give young players opportunities once a season is basically boiling down to chasing the 7th wildcard spot.