Patriots

Analyzing the 4 Patriots Super Bowl Teams of the Salary Cap Era

Posted on by Zack Moore

As a reminder, as always, much I discuss here is based on theories I have and especially regarding this, I haven’t done all the research, so this is basically a first draft of some of the stuff I’m writing for Caponomics (information for the e-mail list at the end of this article). I will complete the research required to ensure this is 100% accurate for the book, but what’s written here was my initial reaction on the figure below. If anyone is more of an expert on the Pats in the early 2000s, please comment below and/or feel free to e-mail me at Caponomics@gmail.com.

Figure 1: Patriots Super Bowl Positional Averages

(As always, click on the pictures to enlarge them.)

Pats Super Bowl Positional Averages

  • Belichick switched between 4-3 and 3-4 defense throughout his time, especially the 2001-03 seasons before switching to the 3-4 as his base defense in 2004. This just adds to the amount of confusion that he throws at opposing offenses. I also have a working theory that they go after very intelligent defensive players to run their schemes and don’t have to necessarily go after the most expensive athletes on the market. In 2014, they ran a base 4-3, but their defense was so multiple that PFF ranks their front seven as a 3-4 AND they consistently ran a 4-2-5 as well with Kyle Arrington typically in the starting lineup at a fifth defensive back position.
  • The 2003 defensive end cap number was low because Richard Seymour was listed as a defensive tackle this season, in 2004, the DE cap number went up as Seymour was listed there. He switched between both positions throughout his time with the Patriots. They got 23 sacks out of Mike Vrabel, Seymour and Willie McGinest in 2003.
  • They spend more money on linebackers because they need more, versatile players for their dynamic defenses.
  • Tight end was typically below the Super Bowl average because they went after blocking types who weren’t very expensive because they were block first guys who didn’t catch a lot of balls. Using tight ends who are essentially another offensive lineman is part of how they run the ball so well with less money spent on the position. Throughout Belichick’s run, he’s had top blocking tight ends and Gronk even falls into this category as he was one of the five best blocking tight ends according to PFF each of his first three season in the NFL before the injuries, which have probably had to do with some regression there.
  • They were always on the big money spending on cornerbacks, even before the new wave of this. Their average for their four Super Bowl champs is 4.01% higher than the Super Bowl average and every single one of their teams was above the average.
  • They’ve always spent a little more than the average on specialists because they always have a great kicker.
  • Safety is a position where they’ve always spent more, but that’s largely due to Lawyer Milloy’s dead money deal in 2003-04.
  • 2014 was the first time they spent more on offense than defense.
  • They’ve always had at least one or two expensive linebackers, listed below are the linebackers who have been in their top 10 cap hits.
    • 2001: Willie McGinest, Ted Johnson, Chris Slade, Tedy Bruschi
    • 2003: Ted Johnson, Mike Vrabel
    • 2004: Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel
    • 2014: Jerod Mayo
      • Dont’a Hightower was their 20th cap hit; Jamie Collins was 30th
  • In fact, considering that they’ve typically been more a base 4-3 team through these years, although they’ve played both, the fact that they have spent half of the Super Bowl average on their defensive ends, but 155% the average for linebackers leads me to believe there might be a strategy to look into here.
  • A true testament to their coaching, especially offensive line coaches Dante Scarnecchia (2000-2013) and Dave DeGuglielmo (2014), is the fact that they’ve had a cheaper offensive line and cheaper offensive line starters than the average SB team. Belichick is so confident in DeGuglielmo and there’s such a trust that DeGuglielmo didn’t find out about the Mankins trade until Belichick announced it to the team. On top of that, Bryan Stork was injured to start the year. McDaniels helped overcome some of the line issues this year with more quick passes and the OL was a huge part of the champions.

Figure 2: Offensive Line Averages

Super Bowl OL Averages

  • Here is how much less they spend than the average Super Bowl Team:
    • LT: -1.82%
    • LG: only position they spent more at, 0.40% more
    • C: -1.45%
    • RG: -0.47%
    • RT: -1.3%
  • The Pats have had a young, inexpensive center on every one of their Super Bowl teams and surrounded him with some more experienced guards. Investing only 0.74% of your cap in your center is extremely low for championship teams as you can see from the difference in the averages, I’ll dig deeper into this, but it seems like they save money by drafting a young center and just surround him with a stronger, more experienced line around him. When you think about it, your center needs to be a smart player, but does he need to be your best offensive lineman? There are many ways to overcome center’s inefficiencies like double teams, so maybe that’s what the Patriots are thinking. Above all else, you need a intelligent center who meshes well with the line, you don’t need a stud. Of course, Dan Koppen was their center from 2003 to 2010, so he was a bit more expensive later in his career.
  • They seem to draft most of their starting linemen on these championship teams.

Figure 3: Patriots Top 30 Cap Hit Averages vs. Super Bowl Averages

Pats SB Avg Top Hits vs. SB Avg

  • Part of what showed made me realize we were on to something looking at the top cap hits for these Super Bowl teams and using them as a barometer is that across the last 15 years, the Patriots have steadily been right around these numbers, never getting out of whack like teams like the 2014 Lions, Dolphins, and Buccaneers, to name a few. I haven’t completed my research on the 2007 Patriots, but their spending was right around these figures as well as positional figures. The fact that they got such value out of Brady, Moss, Stallworth and Welker that year was a huge X-factor in their undefeated regular season.
  • Throughout Belichick’s time, he’s been able to find low-cost players near the end of their career who have accepted less expensive deals with the Patriots to try to win a Super Bowl. This has been a huge advantage for them as they have been able to get some great veteran leadership and solid play from guys who are on the hunt for a championship above all else.

I’ve gotta get up and out for a dinner, but I might expand on this list later, follow me @ZackMooreNFL and of course…

If you want to purchase The First Annual Caponomics: Understanding NFL Roster Building through Super Bowl Champion Salary Cap Analysis, please e-mail me at Caponomics@gmail.com, so that I can put you on our e-mail list for people interested in purchasing the book. Much of that analysis here is similar to what you’ll find in the book! If you join our e-mail list, I will send you the first chapter on the 2014 Lions and then the 2014 Patriots once it’s completed. I might even throw in a bonus Super Bowl champ in. 

I’m currently in the process of getting some legal stuff handled for the book and then I can put the pre-order up on Amazon, otherwise, it would already be up there. Thanks for your support and feel free to send me any questions or ideas to that e-mail address.

Patriots 2015 Salary Cap Outlook

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

Estimated 2015 Cap Space: -$11.4M ($143M cap limit)

Roster Overview

Players Under Contract: 61
Pro Bowlers: 5
Unrestricted Free Agents: 9(3 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 32

Salary Cap Breakdown

Patriots 2015 salary cap

Patriots Offensive Spending

Patriots Defensive Spending

Free Agents to Re-sign

Devin McCourty is one of the best safeties in the NFL and has given New England a very good all around player in the secondary. I would have thought they would have re-signed him by now, which may mean they are considering other options, but at the end of the day I think they keep him. Price may be an issue as top players pushed the market to $9+ million a season last year, which is on the high end for a safety.  Given the lack of talent available McCourty could reasonably get that on the open market. New England did not apply the tag on him which may mean they view him at a lesser salary…Kicker Stephen Gostkowski has a proven track record as a Patriot and was named their franchise player. There is little need to carry a kicker on the tag, so I would expect this to lead to a long term contract….Dan Connolly is versatile and should be a low cost option to keep on a two year contract as he finishes out his career.

Free Agents to Let Walk

The Patriots don’t really have much to worry about in this area. I think Shane Vereen thinks he is worth much more than most teams would value him, so I would anticipate New England will make other plans rather than re-signing him…Stevan Ridley has more upside value than Vereen, but if the Patriots continue to treat this as a plug and play position and are happy with LeGarette Blount then Ridley will find a job elsewhere.

Contracts to Modify

When the Patriots signed Darrelle Revis most everyone assumed it was a one year contract due to the $25 million cap charge in 2015.  Revis is a very important part of the defense and the best cornerback in the NFL. What makes him even more special is the fact that he is incredibly smart player that isn’t going to significantly decline when he loses a step or two. From a contractual standpoint Revis is difficult to deal with and it is hard to believe that he will go to anyone but the highest bidder. He is probably more willing to not touch his deal in hopes of getting his release to test free agency, but I find this to be the perfect marriage for him in terms of both success and finances, even if he can get a few dollars more in Buffalo or New York…The sky is the limit for Chandler Jones and the Patriots would be wise to extend him after exercising the one year option this offseason. Extending him now gives them an opportunity to prorate money now and get all the guarantees in the contract out of the way before his rookie deal even expires…Nate Solder is on his option year, but it is hard to imagine them paying him a $7 million salary. They should either extend him or find a way to bring that number down.

Players to Consider Releasing

Though Danny Amendola had his playoff moments, now that his guaranteed salary runs out it should make him one of the more attractive cuts for the team. The Patriots gain $2.1 million by releasing him….Linebacker Jerod Mayo signed his extension just at the right time as linebacker salaries were still incredibly high. Now he has the second highest contract at the position and will hold the 2nd highest cap charge and 5th highest cash salary next year. He has been injured the last two seasons and they can gain $4.3 million in space by cutting him.  They could consider restructuring his contract, but right now he seems to be Jon Beason without the signing bonus protection….The Vince Wilfork renegotiated deal seemed more like a one year band aid than an actual contract. If he is released and the team fails to pick up his option he will create nearly $8.1 million in cap space for the team.  If they plan on keeping Revis at his astronomical cap figure for any period of time I am not sure Wilfork can stay.

Offseason Plan

After a few rough patches early in the season the Patriots were able to find their way back and eventually win a Super Bowl championship. The organization is the model of consistency and from a roster management standpoint almost completely free of emotion when it comes to making their decisions so you know that no player is safe.

What I find very unique about New England is that they don’t pigeonhole themselves into one specific model. They adapt when the situation presents itself. There are teams that hoard draft picks to the point where they won’t sign a free agent. There are teams that avoid any expensive free agent. There are teams that refuse to break from a mold they use for their contractual structures.

The Patriots just do whatever is in the best interests of the team. The Ravens, Broncos, Packers, etc… would have never signed Revis to the kind of contract that the Patriots did. But the Patriots broke from their norms to do it because they felt it was important for them and too good of a value to pass up even if just for one season. They don’t mind trading out of the first round and would rather amass future assets until the time is ready to strike. Very few teams are willing to do that.

It makes them unpredictable.  Is using a franchise tag wise on a safety?  Probably not, but in their case maybe it is if they really view this as just one more season with McCourty. Is holding Revis at $25 million even remotely logical? It’s not but if they feel it can help get a better deal done they just may do it.

Unlike some organizations the Patriots model can be followed but it takes a real strict belief and dedication to being correct to do this. Obviously Tom Brady is unique and probably not comparable to any other player from a financial perspective, but this is a relationship that they have cultivated from day 1 and give the team credit for that. Give them credit for approaching him about doing the type of deals he has done. The team philosophy was laid out when he was barely established when they released Lawyer Milloy on the eve of the season. It’s all had an impact.

If the Patriots keep Revis they likely will have little in the way of salary cap dollars to spend this season, but if they release him then they can go out there and add in a few areas. If Vereen walks they could look at a player to replace him in the passing game. Roy Helu could be a nice fit and may have the upside to play on more downs than just third. A moderate cost safety and cornerback could also be in the mix, though more likely that would come through the draft.

The Patriots usually focus on the trenches in the draft so Wilfork’s eventual successor will potentially come from this year’s draft. If they don’t go on the defensive front finding an interior lineman at the end of the first round is also a big possibility. The team doesn’t really have glaring needs so it’s more about preparation for the future. Finding a receiver to eventually crack the lineup or another tight end as injury insurance is possible. Adding a situational pass rusher that can develop into a 3 down player might be a help as would another linebacker.

Every year the Patriots compete deep into the playoff and this year will be no different. This offseason I about adding to the mix such that the team can be ready to move out from the old and in with the new within the next two year. It is what they do best and no doubt that will continue in the future.

Patriots Links

Patriots Salary Cap Pages

Patriots Free Agents

Patriots Contracts

Patriots GM Salary Cap Calculator

Other Offseason Salary Cap Reports

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Ranking the Super Bowl Champions

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1] For those of you who enjoy the Power Rankings I do during the season here is a look at the efficiency rankings of all the Super Bowl champions. For those unfamiliar with the rankings what these percentiles measure is the percent a team either scores or prevents an opponent from scoring above or below their schedules average for the season. So for example a team with a scoring efficiency of 25% means that team scored 25% more points per game than their opponents gave up that season. A defensive score of 25% means that a team held their opponents to 25% below their normal scoring output on the season. The stats are for regular season only.

While most people consider the 1985 Bears the greatest team of all time they actually only rank 4th on this system. The top team is the little praised Redskins who really dominated the league in 1991. The team’s opponents allowed just 19 PPG while the Redskins scored over 30. It’s the top performing scoring unit in the history. The defense wasn’t a slouch either holding teams to 24% below their averages.

The 1996 Packers, who looked like they were going to be the next dynasty franchise, ranked second with a tremendous all around tea. The 73 Dolphins rank 3rd and were far superior to the undefeated team in 1972 that faced a much easier schedule. The 75 Steelers fill out the top 10.  The worst SB champions have been the 70 Colts, 11 Giants, 07 Giants, 01 Patriots, and 87 Redskins, though it’s the bottom 4 that are teams that really surprise as being on the list of champions.

The most productive scoring came from the 91 Redskins, 77 Cowboys, 98 Broncos, 09 Saints, and 94 49ers. Only two teams had a below average scoring output and those were the 01 Patriots and 02 Buccaneers. The 90 Giants, 00 Ravens, and 81 49ers would round out the bottom 5. Defensively the best unit was not the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens but the 73 Dolphins who just edge ot the 02 Buccaneers, who I think people forget when discussing the great defensive teams. The 66 Packers, 85 Bears, and 75 Steelers are the other best ranking teams. At the bottom of the list are the 06 Colts, 11 Giants, 09 Saints, 07 Giants, and 98 Broncos, all of whom were below average.

Perhaps not so surprisingly is that no teams from the current era are close to the top of this list as the NFL is filled with parity and a lack of dominant teams that can run all the way to a title. The 2004 Patriots just cracked the top 10 and the next closest team is the 00 Ravens at 19 and 10 Packers at 22. Of the 13 lowest ranking teams, 6 are from 2001 onwards.

The current era will be represented better by either the Seahawks or Broncos either of whom would rank in the top 20. The Broncos would have the best scoring output of any team on this list but would also grab the “title” for worst defense and it would be by a wide margin. It would be unlikely  to see either mark broken anytime soon. The Seahawks defense would rank 9th all time, which is pretty impressive considering the way the rules have skewed to the offenses in this era.

The table below should be fully sortable.

Super Bowl Champion Rankings

RankYearTeamOffDefTotal
11991Washington Redskins60.77%24.51%85.28%
21996Green Bay Packers45.84%32.45%78.29%
31973Miami Dolphins30.38%45.89%76.27%
41985Chicago Bears31.03%43.10%74.13%
51975Pittsburgh Steelers24.49%42.65%67.14%
61984San Francisco 49?ers36.26%28.10%64.36%
71966Green Bay Packers18.57%43.55%62.12%
81999St. Louis Rams39.72%22.12%61.84%
91994San Francisco 49?ers48.21%10.52%58.73%
102004New England Patriots31.97%26.73%58.70%
111969Kansas City Chiefs16.30%40.95%57.25%
121977Dallas Cowboys54.44%2.23%56.67%
131972Miami Dolphins19.37%35.96%55.33%
141993Dallas Cowboys29.30%25.13%54.43%
151979Pittsburgh Steelers30.93%23.05%53.98%
161997Denver Broncos39.62%13.61%53.23%
171989San Francisco 49?ers27.18%25.88%53.06%
181998Denver Broncos51.09%-0.48%50.61%
192000Baltimore Ravens5.62%42.35%47.97%
201992Dallas Cowboys31.01%16.59%47.60%
211971Dallas Cowboys40.34%6.54%46.88%
222010Green Bay Packers12.70%33.37%46.07%
231978Pittsburgh Steelers13.02%33.05%46.07%
241995Dallas Cowboys29.72%15.68%45.40%
251967Green Bay Packers16.18%28.73%44.91%
262008Pittsburgh Steelers9.30%35.15%44.45%
272009New Orleans Saints50.80%-6.76%44.04%
281976Oakland Raiders31.73%12.10%43.83%
292002Tampa Bay Buccaneers-2.94%45.79%42.85%
302005Pittsburgh Steelers22.48%20.24%42.72%
311986New York Giants13.39%27.10%40.49%
321982Washington Redskins13.18%24.98%38.16%
331990New York Giants1.17%36.89%38.06%
341968New York Jets33.21%4.01%37.22%
352003New England Patriots12.74%23.67%36.41%
361974Pittsburgh Steelers8.66%25.50%34.16%
371981San Francisco 49?ers6.42%24.07%30.49%
381983Oakland Raiders20.68%8.27%28.95%
391988San Francisco 49?ers19.16%8.88%28.04%
402006Indianapolis Colts32.58%-7.96%24.62%
411980Oakland Raiders12.23%6.33%18.56%
422012Baltimore Ravens11.44%6.74%18.18%
431987Washington Redskins7.13%10.26%17.39%
442001New England Patriots-1.54%12.58%11.04%
452007New York Giants9.94%-0.61%9.33%
462011New York Giants15.29%-7.09%8.20%
471970Baltimore Colts8.02%-0.07%7.95%

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The Patriots, Marquice Cole, and Termination Pay

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Fans of the Patriots (or fans of those who scan the daily transactions around the NFL) have probably noticed a recurring pattern the last two weeks regarding CB Marquice Cole:

Cole is limited in practice all week

The Patriots release him before Sunday’s game

The following Week they re-sign Cole

Cole again does not practice

Cole is released again

And most likely we can keep repeating that until the season is over or Cole is healthy enough to actually play on Sunday.

What New England is doing is essentially using loopholes in the CBA to basically put Cole on their own version of IR with the designation to return while protecting their own financial interests. By waiting until the end of the week to release Cole, Cole receives his full salary, $42.058.82 per week, and will never miss a game check provided they continue re-signing him to a contract after Sunday’s game.

Termination pay is that guarantee everyone always talks about when a veteran player makes the week 1 roster. In Cole’s case he would be eligible to receive the balance of his $715,000 salary, which at the time of his first release was $546,765 and this week would be $504,706, once released. However, because Cole never misses a game check he is ineligible to claim Termination Pay following the season.

If New England did what many would think is the normal routine of releasing a player and then re-signing him when he is expected to contribute  the Patriots would have to pay Cole both the balance of his Termination Pay plus his salary on the new contract. So if they had released him outright last week and waited until week 8 to bring him back Cole could file a claim to receive his $546,765 and collect 8 weeks of salary on top of that amount. By releasing him after Tuesday the most he could have earned is the $546,765. This is why he will likely be back by next Wednesday and if he still can not play be released by Friday. If New England placed Cole on IR his season would be over, which they don’t want to have happen.

The risks for New England are minimal with this strategy. Cole does not need to clear waivers until after the trade deadline and its unlikely any team would sign him if he has a minor injury anyway, so there is a great chance that Cole is always going to re-sign with New England once asked. In fact it is probably agreed upon before the release that he will be back and not entertain offers from other teams. The team most likely will replace him with a Practice Squad player who will need to clear waivers once released, but considering the player has been free for any other team to sign off the Practice Squad anyway, waivers are not a concern. If a team wanted him that badly they would have made an offer before this time.

So it’s a small but neat little aspect of roster management going on in New England right now that ensures they have the players they want at the price they want for the remainder of the season.

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Week 3: Which Teams Get the Most out of Their Salary Cap

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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With three weeks of the NFL season behind us I thought it might be fun to compare salary cap spending versus performance. I keep my own team efficiency rankings, but they are based on scoring and strength of schedule and quite frankly not very reasonable at this stage of the season (for instance the Bills rank 2nd because they have faced 3 teams that have given up next to no points while the Bills are averaging 21+ a game and those numbers will even out once their schedule normalizes somewhat), so for this exercise I wanted to use Pro Football Focus’ data. Perhaps another time we will use some numbers from Football Outsiders.

I don’t like reprinting data from other sites and I usually like to use the data to come up with different numbers anyway so that was what I did here, so if you want to see the actual PFF grades you will need to subscribe to PFF.  PFF scores teams in a number of offensive, defensive, and special teams categories. They usually give them equal weight sum them up and come up with an aggregate score for a team. I wanted to weight the categories with the passing categories having a weight of 56% and rushing categories 44%. These numbers simply represent the league wide play selection in 2012.  I added 20% of the penalty grade assigned to each team to calculate an offensive and defensive score.  A total grade was calculated by adding offense, defense, and special teams with the weights 42.5, 42.5, and 15.

I wanted to plot those scores against salary cap spending for the season and then add another dimension- unused cap space. So the following chart plots the score against spending with the bubble size representing unused cap room. A smaller bubble indicates minimal unused room while a larger one indicates significant unused dollars.

week 3 cap performance chart

I admit I was a bit surprised at the results in that no low spending teams really broke through in the early stages of the season. The Chiefs, Broncos and Seahawks all have significant salary cap charges on the season. The Cowboys, Saints, and Panthers are all high payroll teams that have deferred significant costs to 2014 and beyond.

One of the more interesting teams could be Green Bay. The Packers offense is terrific. Under this grading criteria its just a few decimal points behind that of the Broncos, but their defense is 4th worst in the NFL.  While they are not a team to spend heavily in free agency you have to wonder if they could have perhaps upgraded somewhere in that defense to improve their rankings.

The flipside of that is that the Packers have a pretty good team and will be able to carry over money next season to help them improve or maintain their roster in the future. The Patriots and Bengals would also fit in that same category. It’s probably the exact opposite for a team like the 49ers who is basically capped out and had to let some depth go this past year due to salary cap constraints.

Teams like the Raiders and Jets are actually impressive. The cap space is about average but both carry large amounts of dead money on the books and used almost all their cap resources to field what have at least been competitive teams.

Jaguars and to a lesser extent Bills fans probably have the most to gripe about in the early part of the year. Jacksonville is awful, maintains a high cap charge because of so much dead money but they still had tons of cap room to improve this team. To sit on that amount of cap space and be that bad has to rub a fan the wrong way. There had to be players out there that were at least upgrades, even in the short term than what they are currently presenting on the field. Carrying over huge amounts of cap space is all good, but eventually it gets to the point where it is so much it becomes useless.

The reason the Bills are a little different is because they decided to take a large cap hit in 2014 for former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so they will likely be using a good chunk of this cap room to cover for that charge. It’s still a nice amount of cap room they could have spent, but they at least have a purpose with their unused cap space.

As the season goes on I’ll so some more snapshots like this using various published criteria so if you have any sources you want me to consider using feel free to pass them along.

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NFL Predictions: Jets vs Patriots

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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For those who did not come across the posts last week Ill be making predictions, for fun, against the spread on the year. We’ll be using whatever the ESPN Pick ‘em spreads are. Starting in either week 4 or 5 Ill base my picks on my efficiency stats that I keep as a method of power ranking the NFL teams, but for now these are just guesses on the teams’ prospects. Last week I went 10-6 without the points and just 8-8 playing against the spread.  Today we just do the Thursday game, which I’ll write more on than the other games, and then Friday or Saturday I will post the rest of the games. If you click on the teams it will take you to their financial matchup chart for the game.

Jets (+12.5) over PATRIOTS– I feel like the Jets have gained momentum over the last few days in the eyes of the general public not because of anything the team did but because of the losses that the Patriots are facing on offense.  The promise of some of the rookie preseason players for New England quickly dissipated once real games began and I think there is some general thoughts that the Patriots could be in for a rough season because of injuries and the poor play in Week 1.

Still this is Tom Brady and Brady is someone that has been able to utilize a cast of no name receivers and do good things. Granted he is not the same player he was two or three years ago, but if a receiver can get any separation he is going to find them and pick up chunks of yards. I have always felt that the Patriots attention to the short passing game gives the Jets fits simply because their strength is covering the outside. Once you start getting into situations where Kyle Wilson, David Harris, and whomever they throw out there at Safety are asked to cover it is going to be bad for the Jets.

I think the most impressive thing coming out of the Jets game last week was the run defense which held Doug Martin to virtually nothing on the ground. In 2012 the run defense was a weakness  so if they continue to play well in that regard they can at least stifle the Patriots ground game, which should still be solid even with the injuries in the backfield.

Neither the Jets nor the Patriots had good offensive games last week. If you take turnover based points out of the equation the Patriots only scored 9 points on 12 drives. Both of their touchdowns came when starting inside Bills territory, at the 16 and the 32 respectively. The Jets were essentially equivalent scoring 9 points in 12 drives (including the game winning FG which was Buccaneer aided) and their lone TD coming on a drive that began on the Buccaneers 31 yard line.

Though I am sure the “butt fumble” play will be discussed over and over again, the reality is the Jets have often played New England well when they meet early in the season. Whether that is because New England often takes a few weeks to really get moving on offense or because the Jets have more confidence in themselves early in the year I don’t know, but the Jets are 2-2 in early season games against New England and have outscored the Patriots 91-82 in Rex Ryan’s tenure in NY. In the second matchup, which usually occurs late in the year, they are 0-4 and have lost by a combined score of 162-52.

Last season, a season where the Jets became the butt of every football joke while New England was again favored to go to the Super Bowl, the Jets lost in overtime to this team, a game the Jets led with about a minute and a half to go.  That was the game that ended up destroying the Jets season as they never mentally recovered from the loss.  I would imagine the Jets coach has had this circled since then as the most important game on the early portion of the schedule.

I don’t think the Jets have enough firepower to win the game, but they should be able to scheme the Patriots enough to keep it close provided the rookie QB doesn’t hand points over to New England.  My guess is this ends up as a moral victory of sorts for the Jets where they will be competitive and maybe stick within 1 score for a good portion of the game. Patriots 20 Jets 13

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NFL Salary Cap Space Update: July 19

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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We keep track of the salary cap (or at least try to) on an everyday basis, so I thought it might be good to do a weekly recap of the effects of the weeks cap moves as we make a turn towards training camp time where the transaction sheet will likely begin to pick up pace.

Moves from the Week:

Cincinnati Bengals– The Bengals signed DE Carlos Dunlap to a 5 year contract extension worth just under $40 million dollars and also locked up their first round draft pick Tyler Eifert to a standard 4 year deal. Dunlap’s contract was heavily frontloaded and cost the Bengals $5,418,200 in cap room. Between he and Eifert the Bengals spent $6,439,231in cap space.  There should be no worries as the moves left them with nearly $15.55 million in cap room, 7th most in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers– The Packers extension of S Morgan Burnett reduced their 2013 cap space by $1,650,000, the amount of Burnett’s proration attributed to his $8.25 million dollar signing bonus. With $14.67 million in cap room the Packers have the 8th largest amount of unused cap in the NFL.

Denver Broncos– The Broncos lost $2.72 million in cap room with the signing of LT Ryan Clady to a heavily frontloaded contract and vesting future guarantees. Already counting $9.828 million against the cap the Broncos agreed to pay Clady a $10.5 million dollar roster bonus to keep his future charges low rather than looking to build carryover cap space this season. Denver has $7.39 million in cap room.

Jacksonville Jaguars– The Jaguars came to terms with rookie WR Ace Sanders on a four year contract. Jacksonville lost $45,362 in cap room following the signing. The Jaguars still have $22.9 million in cap space, 2nd most in the NFL.

Detroit Lions– The Lions gained $321,000 in cap room with the release of RB Jahvid Best and they will now carry $1.1 million in dead money on the 2014 salary cap. The Lions have $5.22 million in cap room.

Dallas Cowboys– The Cowboys gained  $225,000 in cap room when Josh Brent retired. Dallas can also go after his proration from the year, $11,889, though I can’t imagine they would do so.

New England Patriots– The Patriots released WR Donald Jones to save themselves from paying a $200,000 reporting bonus due at the start of training camp. Jones was set to count for $1.131 million against the cap in 2013. Releasing him created $576,250 in cap space pushing the Patriots to $9.79 million.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers– The Buccaneers traded troubled cornerback Eric Wright to the San Francisco 49ers for a conditional late round pick. The Bucs got off great with Wright as off the field problems saw his guarantees for 2013 void, which allowed them to push him into a paycut. With more legal troubles Wright was sent packing creating $945,000 worth of cap space in the process. Tampa has he 4th most cap space in the league at $19.22 million.

San Francisco 49’ers– The 49’ers were on the other end of the trade with the Bucs, taking on Eric Wright and his $1.5 million dollar salary. The addition of Wright reduced San Francisco’s cap room by $945,000. The 49’ers now have $4.49 million in cap room and limited space in 2014, fueling speculation that the team may cut CB Carlos Rogers, saving over $4 million in 2013 and $5.1 million in 2014, giving the team much more breathing room as they prepare for an extension with QB Colin Kaepernick after the season.

Three to Keep an Eye On

St. Louis Rams– With just $214,088 in cap room the Rams do not have enough cap space to function once the regular season begins. They will need to restructure contracts or make a few cuts to be able to function in the regular season.

Washington Redskins– At $1.4 million in cap space the Redskins have the 2nd least amount of space in the NFL. Once rosters expand to 53 and teams spend $1 million on a practice squad the Redskins will be forced to make moves to be cap compliant in September. They should have over $10 million in cap room in 2014 so they may look to push some money into next year if they do not want to make any cuts.

Houston Texans– Houston still needs to sign their first three draft picks, which will eat into their $2.8 million in cap room leaving them with around $1.6 million in room when the season begins. Add in two contracts and a Practice Squad and you get the idea- Houston can’t stand pat and do nothing over the next few weeks.

Click Here to View The Current Cap Space for All 32 Teams 

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