I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings. For the first post I will go back and look at the 2012 draft. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted.
Career Length
For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.
Draft Round | Years in NFL | Years with 1 team |
Top 10 | 7.7 | 4.8 |
1 | 8.6 | 6.3 |
2 | 7.0 | 4.7 |
3 | 6.6 | 4.2 |
4 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
5 | 5.5 | 2.4 |
6 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
7 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
At least for this draft we can probably throw out the “drafting for a decade” bit that is always thrown around every April. Only 7 players actually spent 10 or more years with the team that drafted them in 2012.
Performance by Original Draft Round
We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2012 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.
Round | Avg Redraft Rank | Top 10 | Top 32 | Top 64 | Top 100 |
Top 10 | 78.1 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% |
1 | 55.1 | 9.1% | 40.9% | 63.6% | 81.8% |
2 | 88.8 | 3.1% | 21.9% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
3 | 94.2 | 9.4% | 25.0% | 37.5% | 53.1% |
4 | 129.9 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 17.1% | 39.0% |
5 | 136.3 | 0.0% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 29.4% |
6 | 157.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 27.0% |
7 | 190.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 8.7% |
The top 10 being no different than the rest of round 1 probably surprises come. There obviously is always the top talent available but clearly players fell through the cracks. There was also minimal difference in the picks made in round two and three. The real drop comes in round 7, though there were a handful of players who still ranked in the top 100.
If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.
Round | Overperformed | Underperformed | Hit Target |
Top 10 | – | 70.0% | 30.0% |
1 | 9.1% | 59.1% | 31.8% |
2 | 21.9% | 53.1% | 25.0% |
3 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 12.5% |
4 | 36.6% | 46.3% | 17.1% |
5 | 50.0% | 41.2% | 8.8% |
6 | 54.1% | 24.3% | 21.6% |
7 | 50.0% | – | 50.0% |
Performance by Position
Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.
Position | Drafted | Top 10 | Top 32 | Top 64 | Top 100 |
QB | 11 | 45.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | 63.6% |
EDGE | 15 | 13.3% | 26.7% | 40.0% | 46.7% |
OG | 29 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 43.8% | 50.0% |
LT | 30 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
CB | 31 | 3.3% | 16.7% | 23.3% | 36.7% |
IDL | 19 | 3.4% | 13.8% | 31.0% | 44.8% |
LB | 16 | 3.2% | 12.9% | 32.3% | 48.4% |
WR | 36 | 0.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 27.8% |
RT | 15 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 40.0% |
S | 5 | 0.0% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 26.3% |
RB | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% |
TE | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 41.7% |
P | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% |
K | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 75.0% |
C | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
While QBs are always paid highly they did have nearly 50% place in the top 10 of the redraft ranking. That should probably say something about the importance of drafting a QB. Guard surprisingly was 3rd in players ranking top 32. While that may be due to longevity, they have been relatively underpaid compared to some other positions. The big dud this year was receiver.
What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 (technically there are 101 in this draft)?
Position | Drafted | Top 10 | Top 32 | Top 64 | Top 100 |
QB | 7 | 57.1% | 57.1% | 71.4% | 85.7% |
OG | 7 | 0.0% | 57.1% | 85.7% | 85.7% |
LB | 9 | 11.1% | 44.4% | 77.8% | 100.0% |
EDGE | 10 | 20.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% |
CB | 10 | 10.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
LT | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
IDL | 13 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 53.8% | 61.5% |
S | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% |
RT | 5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% |
WR | 16 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% |
RB | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
TE | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% |
P | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
C | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
Again, it was a good year for the QB and guards with linebacker being an incredibly safe pick. Interior d-line had a harder time and receiver was just bad this year.
Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts
Seattle had two massive hits with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner and were the clear top team. They were followed by Miami, though a good portion of the value that was found there was realized by the Titans which was where Ryan Tannehill became a solid NFL starter. The same can be said for the Commanders who never could agree with Kirk Cousins on a contract. The Falcons and Giants had the worst drafts, landing in the negative for earnings above the rookie contract.
Team | Picks | Net Earnings |
Seahawks | 10 | $445,132,740 |
Dolphins | 9 | $296,141,739 |
Eagles | 9 | $265,388,488 |
Commanders | 9 | $261,989,718 |
Rams | 10 | $216,884,820 |
Bengals | 10 | $216,697,627 |
Broncos | 7 | $197,217,598 |
Colts | 10 | $194,328,780 |
Patriots | 7 | $185,167,252 |
Texans | 8 | $166,731,599 |
Bills | 9 | $162,783,489 |
Vikings | 10 | $158,788,635 |
Buccaneers | 7 | $134,414,723 |
Packers | 8 | $123,395,347 |
Panthers | 7 | $122,670,650 |
Lions | 8 | $90,715,932 |
Chargers | 7 | $87,511,201 |
Steelers | 9 | $85,914,929 |
Cardinals | 7 | $78,161,236 |
Browns | 12 | $71,686,295 |
Cowboys | 7 | $68,961,245 |
Saints | 5 | $64,909,019 |
Bears | 6 | $60,202,487 |
Chiefs | 8 | $55,412,013 |
Jets | 8 | $54,252,043 |
Ravens | 8 | $50,041,232 |
Jaguars | 6 | $48,853,546 |
Titans | 7 | $27,792,201 |
Raiders | 6 | $19,965,750 |
49ers | 7 | $3,884,883 |
Giants | 7 | ($692,436) |
Falcons | 6 | ($3,971,753) |
The Final Draft Rankings
When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.
Round | Avg. Draft Slot |
Top 10 | 43.6 |
1 | 60.0 |
2 | 84.1 |
3 | 108.8 |
4 | 115.0 |
5 | 141.5 |
6 | 163.2 |
7 | 186.5 |
Our new top 10 consists of five QBs, two edges, one interior D-line, one cornerback, and one linebacker. The three players actually selected top 10 who remain in the top 10 are Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, and Stephon Gilmore.
Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.
Rank | Name | Position | Earnings | Original Draft Slot | Change in Draft Slot | Years Played | Years With Draft Team |
1 | Russell Wilson | QB | $263,343,349 | 75 | 74 | 12 | 10 |
2 | Kirk Cousins | QB | $228,896,600 | 102 | 100 | 12 | 6 |
3 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | $182,382,467 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 7 |
4 | Chandler Jones | EDGE | $124,300,903 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 4 |
5 | Fletcher Cox | IDL | $118,181,353 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 12 |
6 | Stephon Gilmore | CB | $95,412,294 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
7 | Bobby Wagner | LB | $91,087,498 | 47 | 40 | 12 | 11 |
8 | Andrew Luck | QB | $87,000,000 | 1 | -7 | 7 | 7 |
9 | Nick Foles | QB | $83,087,000 | 88 | 79 | 12 | 5 |
10 | Olivier Vernon | EDGE | $82,582,000 | 72 | 62 | 9 | 4 |
11 | Melvin Ingram | EDGE | $80,751,000 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
12 | Harrison Smith | S | $80,319,177 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 12 |
13 | Lavonte David | LB | $79,750,000 | 58 | 45 | 12 | 12 |
14 | Kevin Zeitler | OG | $78,570,000 | 27 | 13 | 12 | 5 |
15 | T.Y. Hilton | WR | $74,512,294 | 92 | 77 | 11 | 10 |
16 | Janoris Jenkins | CB | $73,038,985 | 39 | 23 | 11 | 4 |
17 | Riley Reiff | RT | $72,130,000 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 5 |
18 | Josh Norman | CB | $69,743,944 | 143 | 125 | 11 | 5 |
19 | Malik Jackson | IDL | $69,737,000 | 137 | 118 | 10 | 4 |
20 | Akiem Hicks | IDL | $66,340,088 | 89 | 69 | 11 | 3 |
21 | Trumaine Johnson | CB | $65,465,900 | 65 | 44 | 8 | 6 |
22 | Michael Brockers | IDL | $59,646,000 | 14 | -8 | 11 | 9 |
23 | Demario Davis | LB | $59,507,000 | 77 | 54 | 12 | 5 |
24 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | $58,163,941 | 45 | 21 | 9 | 5 |
25 | Brandon Brooks | OG | $55,839,436 | 76 | 51 | 10 | 4 |
26 | Whitney Mercilus | EDGE | $54,872,917 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
27 | Casey Hayward | CB | $53,300,000 | 62 | 35 | 12 | 4 |
28 | Marvin Jones | WR | $52,979,412 | 166 | 138 | 11 | 4 |
29 | Luke Kuechly | LB | $50,858,177 | 9 | -20 | 8 | 8 |
30 | Cordy Glenn | LT | $50,073,529 | 41 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
31 | David DeCastro | OG | $49,319,900 | 24 | -7 | 9 | 9 |
32 | Kelechi Osemele | OG | $48,587,500 | 60 | 28 | 8 | 4 |
33 | Derek Wolfe | IDL | $46,797,422 | 36 | 3 | 10 | 8 |
34 | Tyrone Crawford | IDL | $45,000,000 | 81 | 47 | 9 | 9 |
35 | Dont’a Hightower | LB | $44,290,064 | 25 | -10 | 10 | 10 |
36 | Mike Daniels | IDL | $43,323,472 | 132 | 96 | 10 | 7 |
37 | Danny Trevathan | LB | $43,177,588 | 188 | 151 | 10 | 4 |
38 | Dre Kirkpatrick | CB | $41,797,625 | 17 | -21 | 9 | 8 |
39 | Ben Jones | OG | $39,882,000 | 99 | 60 | 11 | 4 |
40 | Bruce Irvin | LB | $39,706,718 | 15 | -25 | 11 | 6 |
41 | Mitchell Schwartz | RT | $39,200,000 | 37 | -4 | 9 | 4 |
42 | Kelvin Beachum | LT | $39,107,000 | 248 | 206 | 12 | 4 |
43 | Bobby Massie | RT | $37,934,963 | 112 | 69 | 10 | 4 |
44 | Brock Osweiler | QB | $37,880,000 | 57 | 13 | 7 | 5 |
45 | Matt Kalil | LT | $37,596,000 | 4 | -41 | 7 | 5 |
46 | Mark Barron | S | $36,794,117 | 7 | -39 | 8 | 2 |
47 | Dontari Poe | IDL | $35,396,002 | 11 | -36 | 8 | 5 |
48 | Nick Perry | EDGE | $32,712,500 | 28 | -20 | 7 | 7 |
49 | Vinny Curry | IDL | $29,549,500 | 59 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
50 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | $29,021,319 | 83 | 33 | 10 | 4 |
51 | Lamar Miller | RB | $26,773,684 | 97 | 46 | 9 | 4 |
52 | J.R. Sweezy | OG | $26,725,750 | 225 | 173 | 9 | 5 |
53 | Tahir Whitehead | LB | $23,981,444 | 138 | 85 | 10 | 6 |
54 | Travis Benjamin | WR | $23,792,111 | 100 | 46 | 10 | 4 |
55 | Dwayne Allen | TE | $23,057,074 | 64 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
56 | Mychal Kendricks | LB | $21,816,544 | 46 | -10 | 9 | 6 |
57 | Bryan Anger | P | $20,053,088 | 70 | 13 | 12 | 4 |
58 | Andre Branch | EDGE | $20,045,000 | 38 | -20 | 7 | 4 |
59 | Brandon Marshall | WR | $20,026,214 | 142 | 83 | 7 | 1 |
60 | Justin Bethel | CB | $19,884,559 | 177 | 117 | 12 | 6 |
61 | Jeff Allen | OG | $18,705,319 | 44 | -17 | 7 | 5 |
62 | Greg Zuerlein | K | $18,600,000 | 171 | 109 | 12 | 8 |
63 | Nigel Bradham | LB | $18,573,912 | 105 | 42 | 8 | 4 |
64 | Coby Fleener | TE | $18,100,000 | 34 | -30 | 6 | 4 |
65 | Morris Claiborne | CB | $16,319,007 | 6 | -59 | 8 | 5 |
66 | George Iloka | S | $15,376,941 | 167 | 101 | 8 | 6 |
67 | Doug Martin | RB | $15,258,530 | 31 | -36 | 7 | 6 |
68 | Rhett Ellison | TE | $14,700,625 | 128 | 60 | 8 | 5 |
69 | Dennis Kelly | RT | $14,067,500 | 153 | 84 | 11 | 4 |
70 | Senio Kelemete | OG | $13,155,889 | 151 | 81 | 10 | 1 |
71 | Jarius Wright | WR | $12,782,000 | 118 | 47 | 8 | 6 |
72 | Robert Griffin III | QB | $12,600,000 | 2 | -70 | 8 | 4 |
73 | Jack Crawford | IDL | $11,952,500 | 158 | 85 | 10 | 2 |
74 | Rishard Matthews | WR | $11,602,118 | 227 | 153 | 7 | 4 |
75 | Jeremy Lane | CB | $11,000,000 | 172 | 97 | 6 | 6 |
76 | Zach Brown | LB | $10,847,353 | 52 | -24 | 7 | 4 |
77 | Nate Ebner | S | $10,579,688 | 197 | 120 | 10 | 8 |
78 | Randy Bullock | K | $10,515,040 | 161 | 83 | 11 | 3 |
79 | Coty Sensabaugh | CB | $10,125,530 | 115 | 36 | 8 | 4 |
80 | Kendall Wright | WR | $10,005,882 | 20 | -60 | 6 | 5 |
81 | Tavon Wilson | S | $9,578,125 | 48 | -33 | 10 | 4 |
82 | Tom Compton | RT | $9,426,553 | 193 | 111 | 11 | 4 |
83 | Michael Floyd | WR | $9,091,618 | 13 | -70 | 7 | 4 |
84 | Jaye Howard | IDL | $8,500,000 | 114 | 30 | 5 | 1 |
85 | Donald Stephenson | RT | $8,375,257 | 74 | -11 | 6 | 4 |
86 | Josh Robinson | CB | $7,987,765 | 66 | -20 | 8 | 4 |
87 | Kyle Wilber | LB | $7,297,500 | 113 | 26 | 10 | 6 |
88 | Ladarius Green | TE | $7,150,000 | 110 | 22 | 5 | 4 |
89 | Shea McClellin | EDGE | $7,075,000 | 19 | -70 | 6 | 4 |
90 | John Hughes | IDL | $6,318,529 | 87 | -3 | 6 | 4 |
91 | Tony Bergstrom | C | $6,291,235 | 95 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
92 | Joe Looney | C | $6,229,559 | 117 | 25 | 9 | 3 |
93 | Alfred Morris | RB | $6,094,118 | 173 | 80 | 8 | 4 |
94 | Blair Walsh | K | $6,078,125 | 175 | 81 | 6 | 4 |
95 | Keenan Robinson | LB | $5,948,000 | 119 | 24 | 6 | 4 |
96 | James Hanna | TE | $5,500,000 | 186 | 90 | 6 | 6 |
97 | Jared Crick | IDL | $4,882,000 | 126 | 29 | 6 | 4 |
98 | Nathan Stupar | LB | $4,210,012 | 230 | 132 | 7 | 0 |
99 | Brad Nortman | P | $4,050,000 | 207 | 108 | 6 | 4 |
100 | Sean Spence | LB | $3,569,118 | 86 | -14 | 6 | 5 |