Revisiting the 2012 NFL Draft

I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings. For the first post I will go back and look at the 2012 draft. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted.

Career Length

For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.

Draft RoundYears in NFLYears with 1 team
Top 107.74.8
18.66.3
27.04.7
36.64.2
45.33.1
55.52.4
64.62.5
73.11.7

At least for this draft we can probably throw out the “drafting for a decade” bit that is always thrown around every April. Only 7 players actually spent 10 or more years with the team that drafted them in 2012.

Performance by Original Draft Round

We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2012 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.

RoundAvg Redraft RankTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
Top 1078.130.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%
155.19.1%40.9%63.6%81.8%
288.83.1%21.9%46.9%53.1%
394.29.4%25.0%37.5%53.1%
4129.92.4%2.4%17.1%39.0%
5136.30.0%8.8%14.7%29.4%
6157.00.0%0.0%8.1%27.0%
7190.50.0%0.0%4.3%8.7%

The top 10 being no different than the rest of round 1 probably surprises come. There obviously is always the top talent available but clearly players fell through the cracks. There was also minimal difference in the picks made in round two and three.  The real drop comes in round 7, though there were a handful of players who still ranked in the top 100.

If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.

RoundOverperformedUnderperformedHit Target
Top 1070.0%30.0%
19.1%59.1%31.8%
221.9%53.1%25.0%
337.5%50.0%12.5%
436.6%46.3%17.1%
550.0%41.2%8.8%
654.1%24.3%21.6%
750.0%50.0%

Performance by Position

Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
QB1145.5%45.5%54.5%63.6%
EDGE1513.3%26.7%40.0%46.7%
OG290.0%25.0%43.8%50.0%
LT300.0%20.0%60.0%60.0%
CB313.3%16.7%23.3%36.7%
IDL193.4%13.8%31.0%44.8%
LB163.2%12.9%32.3%48.4%
WR360.0%8.3%16.7%27.8%
RT150.0%6.7%20.0%40.0%
S50.0%5.3%10.5%26.3%
RB210.0%0.0%4.8%14.3%
TE120.0%0.0%16.7%41.7%
P20.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%
K40.0%0.0%25.0%75.0%
C80.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%

While QBs are always paid highly they did have nearly 50% place in the top 10 of the redraft ranking. That should probably say something about the importance of drafting a QB. Guard surprisingly was 3rd in players ranking top 32. While that may be due to longevity, they have been relatively underpaid compared to some other positions. The big dud this year was receiver.

What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 (technically there are 101 in this draft)?

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
QB757.1%57.1%71.4%85.7%
OG70.0%57.1%85.7%85.7%
LB911.1%44.4%77.8%100.0%
EDGE1020.0%40.0%60.0%70.0%
CB1010.0%40.0%50.0%70.0%
LT30.0%33.3%66.7%66.7%
IDL137.7%23.1%53.8%61.5%
S50.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
RT50.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
WR160.0%12.5%25.0%37.5%
RB80.0%0.0%12.5%25.0%
TE30.0%0.0%66.7%66.7%
P10.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%
C40.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%

Again, it was a good year for the QB and guards with linebacker being an incredibly safe pick. Interior d-line had a harder time and receiver was just bad this year.

Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts

Seattle had two massive hits with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner and were the clear top team. They were followed by Miami, though a good portion of the value that was found there was realized by the Titans which was where Ryan Tannehill became a solid NFL starter. The same can be said for the Commanders who never could agree with Kirk Cousins on a contract. The Falcons and Giants had the worst drafts, landing in the negative for earnings above the rookie contract.

TeamPicksNet Earnings
Seahawks10$445,132,740
Dolphins9$296,141,739
Eagles9$265,388,488
Commanders9$261,989,718
Rams10$216,884,820
Bengals10$216,697,627
Broncos7$197,217,598
Colts10$194,328,780
Patriots7$185,167,252
Texans8$166,731,599
Bills9$162,783,489
Vikings10$158,788,635
Buccaneers7$134,414,723
Packers8$123,395,347
Panthers7$122,670,650
Lions8$90,715,932
Chargers7$87,511,201
Steelers9$85,914,929
Cardinals7$78,161,236
Browns12$71,686,295
Cowboys7$68,961,245
Saints5$64,909,019
Bears6$60,202,487
Chiefs8$55,412,013
Jets8$54,252,043
Ravens8$50,041,232
Jaguars6$48,853,546
Titans7$27,792,201
Raiders6$19,965,750
49ers7$3,884,883
Giants7($692,436)
Falcons6($3,971,753)

The Final Draft Rankings

When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.

RoundAvg. Draft Slot
Top 1043.6
160.0
284.1
3108.8
4115.0
5141.5
6163.2
7186.5

Our new top 10 consists of five QBs, two edges, one interior D-line, one cornerback, and one linebacker. The three players actually selected top 10 who remain in the top 10 are Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, and Stephon Gilmore.

Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.

RankNamePositionEarningsOriginal Draft SlotChange in Draft SlotYears PlayedYears With Draft Team
1Russell WilsonQB$263,343,34975741210
2Kirk CousinsQB$228,896,600102100126
3Ryan TannehillQB$182,382,46785127
4Chandler JonesEDGE$124,300,9032117124
5Fletcher CoxIDL$118,181,3531271212
6Stephon GilmoreCB$95,412,294104125
7Bobby WagnerLB$91,087,49847401211
8Andrew LuckQB$87,000,0001-777
9Nick FolesQB$83,087,0008879125
10Olivier VernonEDGE$82,582,000726294
11Melvin IngramEDGE$80,751,000187119
12Harrison SmithS$80,319,17729171212
13Lavonte DavidLB$79,750,00058451212
14Kevin ZeitlerOG$78,570,0002713125
15T.Y. HiltonWR$74,512,29492771110
16Janoris JenkinsCB$73,038,9853923114
17Riley ReiffRT$72,130,000236125
18Josh NormanCB$69,743,944143125115
19Malik JacksonIDL$69,737,000137118104
20Akiem HicksIDL$66,340,0888969113
21Trumaine JohnsonCB$65,465,900654486
22Michael BrockersIDL$59,646,00014-8119
23Demario DavisLB$59,507,0007754125
24Alshon JefferyWR$58,163,941452195
25Brandon BrooksOG$55,839,4367651104
26Whitney MercilusEDGE$54,872,917260109
27Casey HaywardCB$53,300,0006235124
28Marvin JonesWR$52,979,412166138114
29Luke KuechlyLB$50,858,1779-2088
30Cordy GlennLT$50,073,529411186
31David DeCastroOG$49,319,90024-799
32Kelechi OsemeleOG$48,587,500602884
33Derek WolfeIDL$46,797,422363108
34Tyrone CrawfordIDL$45,000,000814799
35Dont’a HightowerLB$44,290,06425-101010
36Mike DanielsIDL$43,323,47213296107
37Danny TrevathanLB$43,177,588188151104
38Dre KirkpatrickCB$41,797,62517-2198
39Ben JonesOG$39,882,0009960114
40Bruce IrvinLB$39,706,71815-25116
41Mitchell SchwartzRT$39,200,00037-494
42Kelvin BeachumLT$39,107,000248206124
43Bobby MassieRT$37,934,96311269104
44Brock OsweilerQB$37,880,000571375
45Matt KalilLT$37,596,0004-4175
46Mark BarronS$36,794,1177-3982
47Dontari PoeIDL$35,396,00211-3685
48Nick PerryEDGE$32,712,50028-2077
49Vinny CurryIDL$29,549,5005910108
50Mohamed SanuWR$29,021,3198333104
51Lamar MillerRB$26,773,684974694
52J.R. SweezyOG$26,725,75022517395
53Tahir WhiteheadLB$23,981,44413885106
54Travis BenjaminWR$23,792,11110046104
55Dwayne AllenTE$23,057,07464975
56Mychal KendricksLB$21,816,54446-1096
57Bryan AngerP$20,053,0887013124
58Andre BranchEDGE$20,045,00038-2074
59Brandon MarshallWR$20,026,2141428371
60Justin BethelCB$19,884,559177117126
61Jeff AllenOG$18,705,31944-1775
62Greg ZuerleinK$18,600,000171109128
63Nigel BradhamLB$18,573,9121054284
64Coby FleenerTE$18,100,00034-3064
65Morris ClaiborneCB$16,319,0076-5985
66George IlokaS$15,376,94116710186
67Doug MartinRB$15,258,53031-3676
68Rhett EllisonTE$14,700,6251286085
69Dennis KellyRT$14,067,50015384114
70Senio KelemeteOG$13,155,88915181101
71Jarius WrightWR$12,782,0001184786
72Robert Griffin IIIQB$12,600,0002-7084
73Jack CrawfordIDL$11,952,50015885102
74Rishard MatthewsWR$11,602,11822715374
75Jeremy LaneCB$11,000,0001729766
76Zach BrownLB$10,847,35352-2474
77Nate EbnerS$10,579,688197120108
78Randy BullockK$10,515,04016183113
79Coty SensabaughCB$10,125,5301153684
80Kendall WrightWR$10,005,88220-6065
81Tavon WilsonS$9,578,12548-33104
82Tom ComptonRT$9,426,553193111114
83Michael FloydWR$9,091,61813-7074
84Jaye HowardIDL$8,500,0001143051
85Donald StephensonRT$8,375,25774-1164
86Josh RobinsonCB$7,987,76566-2084
87Kyle WilberLB$7,297,50011326106
88Ladarius GreenTE$7,150,0001102254
89Shea McClellinEDGE$7,075,00019-7064
90John HughesIDL$6,318,52987-364
91Tony BergstromC$6,291,23595494
92Joe LooneyC$6,229,5591172593
93Alfred MorrisRB$6,094,1181738084
94Blair WalshK$6,078,1251758164
95Keenan RobinsonLB$5,948,0001192464
96James HannaTE$5,500,0001869066
97Jared CrickIDL$4,882,0001262964
98Nathan StuparLB$4,210,01223013270
99Brad NortmanP$4,050,00020710864
100Sean SpenceLB$3,569,11886-1465