Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions. The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016. A pay cut is treated as […]
The Houston Texans have cut running back Arian Fostesaving the team $6.625 million on the salary cap. Foster had been a dominant runner for the Texans since emerging on the scene as a undrafted free agent, but was also overused early in his career and struggled with injuries. Last season he tore his Achilles and […]
The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0. Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value. Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not […]
Here are the notes for the NFC Championship to go along with the AFC Championship notes that you can find here. As I said there, these are just some initial notes looking at their caps and more thorough analysis will be coming on this week’s podcast, which will be coming tomorrow or Friday.
I’m having a lot of fun writing the current chapter of the Caponomics: Management Theories book as I’ve been getting to dissect the two coaches in the NFL who I think are bringing in the next evolution of football, Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly. In my opinion, for the next fifteen to twenty years, these […]
For the last two seasons I have done a summer “Best and Worst” contracts for each team in the NFL, but I decided this year to put that on hold since it recycles so many players and instead take a positional approach to the concept. So during the course of the summer I’ll do my […]
Due to the fact that rosters will remain mostly static between now and the preseason, I thought that this would be a good time to provide an update as to the status of the players for whom we provided a 2015 expected outcome earlier in the offseason. As a reminder, we ran the Expected Contract […]