2016 Cap Analytics: Carolina Panthers

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

PlayerPositionExpected OutcomeExpected Savings
Luke KuechlyF7100.0%($1,620)
Shaq ThompsonF799.9%($2,498)
Cam NewtonQB99.8%($15,300)
Greg OlsonREC98.7%($64,260)
Thomas DavisF798.5%($7,400)
Ryan KalilOL96.0%$175,241
Star LotuleleiF795.7%$0
Graham GanoKP92.1%$173,580
Kelvin BenjaminREC91.3%($84,500)
Michael OherOL73.3%$867,100
Jonathan StewartRB70.7%$658,575
Ted GinnREC65.3%$668,553
Ed DicksonREC43.3%$699,546
Charles JohnsonF737.7%$6,853,000
Jared AllenF715.6%$7,176,550
Dwan EdwardsF72.4%$1,561,920
Expected Change in Cap Room+$18,658,487


True Cap SpaceRealizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms.  Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)
Adjusted Salary Cap$153,749,950
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts($42,609,881)
Realizable Cap Space$111,140,069
Fully Guaranteed Salary($5,352,801)
Minimum Salary Cap Holds($21,600,000)
True Cap Space$84,187,268
League Rank19th

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams.  A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments.  The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016). 

Commitment Index (2017+)
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts$66,174,691
Fully Guaranteed Salary$1,235,794
Current Cap Space($21,640,540)
Net Commitment$45,769,945
Commitment Index Score265%
League Rank (1st = Most Committed)7th