With the draft over, we hit the fast and furious UDFA signing period, which is where La’El Collins now sits. So let’s take a quick look at the rules regarding the signings, specifically in regards to Collins. Every undrafted rookie is locked into signing a three year contract. The three year contract will contain the […]
Quarterbacks: Running Backs: Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year Jeremy Maclin $55,000,000 $37,139,500 68% $7,427,900 Randall Cobb $40,000,000 $31,522,300 79% $7,880,575 Torrey Smith $40,000,000 $27,261,750 68% $5,452,350 Dwayne Harris $17,500,000 $12,377,350 71% $2,475,470 Andre Johnson $18,500,000 $11,492,000 62% $3,830,667 Eddie Royal $15,000,000 $11,215,000 75% $3,783,333 Dwayne Bowe $12,500,000 $10,504,900 84% $5,252,450 Stevie Johnson $10,500,000 […]
I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment. Quarterbacks: Josh McCown Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment 2015 — 89.2% […]
As the contract details from the recent signings are reported, I will use Expected Contract Value to analyze the deals. Doing so will allow for meaningful valuation of the contracts, enabling useful comparison between, for example, Maclin v. Cobb, Maxwell v. Jackson, Suh v. Watt, etc. However, the numbers for most of the newly-signed contracts […]
Rather than update all eight of the division-by-division posts, I will do a weekly roundup post where I compare the ECV forecasts with the transactions that are made (or not made) in real life. In this week’s post, the focus will be on comparing the 2015 Expected Outcomes to the releases and non-releases, but after […]
2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC West NFC East AFC East As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. […]
Introducing Expected Contract Value Part 2: Inputs & Outputs Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics” As we described yesterday, Expected Contract Value is an objective metric that enables valuation and comparison of contracts, as well as team salary cap budgeting, by using regression analysis to identify the influence on team-decision making of the relationships […]