2015 ECV Expected Outcomes: NFC West
As a reminder, the percentages listed in the second column represent the likelihood that the team will keep the player under contract for the 2015 season. Also, keep in mind that ECV has no idea whether or not the player is talented, valuable, or healthy. ECV also does not consider the salary cap situation of the team. I did not run the model for 2011 draft picks whose fifth year options have been picked up. I view these as one year contracts for which the team has already made its decision. As a reminder, a pay cut is treated the same as a release.
I only ran the model for players with cap numbers of $2 million or more. First, the model may break down as the numbers involved become very low. At a certain point, the cap consequences become secondary to whether or not the player is worth a roster spot. Second, at this point I am doing everything manually, so it was necessary for the sake of just getting all of this onto the website. As the offseason progresses, I will update the outcomes in the last column.
Seattle Seahawks:
Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
Earl Thomas | 99.3% | NO | |
Cliff Avril | 97.6% | NO | |
KJ Wright | 96.1% | NO | |
Richard Sherman | 93.9% | NO | |
Kam Chancellor | 84.6% | NO | |
Doug Baldwin | 82.5% | NO | |
Michael Bennett | 80.3% | NO | |
Russell Okung | 61.2% | NO | |
Bruce Irvin | 60.6% | NO | |
Steven Hauschka | 58.3% | NO | |
Max Unger | 57.4% | NO | |
Marshawn Lynch | 39.1% | YES | |
Zach Miller | 38.6% | YES | |
Tony McDaniel | 30.9% | YES | |
Brandon Mebane | 28.0% | YES |
San Francisco 49ers:
Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
Anthony Davis | 98.8% | NO | |
Eric Reid | 98.7% | NO | |
Colin Kaepernick | 95.0% | NO | |
NaVorro Bowman | 93.7% | NO | |
Joe Staley | 92.2% | NO | |
Tramaine Brock | 87.9% | NO | |
Glenn Dorsey | 76.2% | NO | |
Antoine Bethea | 73.5% | NO | |
Steve Johnson | 67.0% | NO | |
Andy Lee | 55.5% | NO | |
Ahmad Brooks | 49.7% | YES | |
Patrick Willis | 37.0% | YES | |
Vernon Davis | 34.6% | YES | |
Alex Boone | 33.5% | YES | |
Anquan Boldin | 24.1% | YES | |
Justin Smith | 13.1% | YES | |
Phil Dawson | 3.5% | YES |
Arizona Cardinals:
Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
Patrick Peterson | 97.2% | NO | |
Jonathan Cooper | 94.9% | NO | |
Daryl Washington | 93.0% | NO | |
Jared Veldheer | 93.0% | NO | |
Michael Floyd | 87.7% | NO | |
Carson Palmer | 69.4% | NO | |
Calais Campbell | 62.1% | NO | |
Larry Fitzgerald | 56.0% | NO | |
Ted Ginn | 52.1% | NO | |
Matt Shaughnessy | 46.3% | YES | |
Jerraud Powers | 38.4% | YES | |
Lyle Sendlein | 28.1% | YES | |
Rashad Johnson | 27.1% | YES | |
Drew Stanton | 23.4% | YES | |
Lorenzo Alexander | 22.2% | YES | |
Darnell Dockett | 18.3% | YES |
St. Louis Rams:
Player | Expected Outcome | Cut? | Correct? |
Greg Robinson | 99.9% | NO | |
Aaron Donald | 99.9% | NO | |
Tavon Austin | 98.7% | NO | |
Robert Quinn | 98.6% | NO | |
Johnny Hekker | 98.5% | NO | |
Jared Cook | 91.3% | NO | |
Michael Brockers | 90.2% | NO | |
Mark Barron | 88.4% | NO | |
Roger Saffold | 83.5% | NO | |
James Laurinaitis | 76.0% | NO | |
Sam Bradford | 50.8% | NO | |
Chris Long | 48.8% | YES | |
Jake Long | 38.8% | YES | |
Kendall Langford | 35.2% | YES | |
William Hayes | 35.2% | YES | |
Eugene Sims | 17.0% | YES | |
Scott Wells | 14.1% | YES |
ECV Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
ECV Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
ECV Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
ECV Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
ECV Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.