“What We Talkin’ About”: Process, Quality, and Percentages

This is the final draft of the first chapter of Caponomics: Moneyball Thinking for the NFL. We’re sending it out to publishers this week, but a) I’d love to share it with the Over The Cap audience as I’ve been unable to post much since March as I’ve been in the process of re-writing my first […]

Most Likely One-and-Done Contracts of 2016 Free Agency

Each offseason a number of the multi-year contracts signed by free agents the previous offseason are terminated. These contracts may be terminated for a variety of reasons: disappointing performance, injury, team salary cap situation, etc. These factors are, for the most part, unpredictable. However, we can use Expected Contract Value to identify contracts that are […]

Did the Broncos Make a Mistake with CJ Anderson

John Elway has come under heavy criticism for the handling of the CJ Anderson contract. Anderson, a restricted free agent, was given the lowest possible tender by the Broncos which gave them the right to match any contract offer but receive no compensation if Anderson joined another team. For about another $900,000 Elway could have […]

Art Weiss and Bill Belichick: From Wayne Chrebet to Chris Hogan

I ran across this great video of Wayne Chrebet today and it sparked this thought that I’ll talk about here, but be elaborating on further in an article that I’m writing that will also be one of the final chapters of Caponomics. Belichick has his own formula for his dynasty and that article/chapter will be […]