Last week I went 9-4 picking winners and 8-5 picking against the spread to bring the record to 77-43 and 62-58 respectively. Onto this weeks picks….
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Falcons– While I have to assume Matt Ryan plays better this week the Falcons as a whole are proving to be a pretty rotten group. Carolina’s defense should put a hurting on Ryan and the Falcons defense isn’t stopping anyone right now. Panthers 30 Falcons 14
Chiefs (-3.5) over BILLS– The Chiefs may be the most underwhelming undefeated team of all time, but they play great defense and never make a critical mistake it seems. The Bills play opportunistic football and the Chiefs will likely let them hang around, but when push comes to shove the Chiefs will make plays down the stretch to win by more than a FG. Chiefs 21 Bills 13
COWBOYS (-10.5) over Vikings– The Cowboys at home against an awful defense should make for a rather great fantasy day for the Cowboys owners. Vikings season is pretty much hopeless at this stage. Cowboys 42 Vikings 20
Titans (-2.5) over RAMS– I said the other day that the Titans should be the favorites to win the final AFC wildcard and if that’s the case this is a must win game for them. Rams probably gave it everything they had on Monday and could just be spent this weekend. Titans 24 Rams 19
Saints (-5.5) over JETS– This is just such a bad matchup for the Jets. Their secondary has been poor all season and they will be going against one of the best in the NFL in Drew Brees. The Saints defense is good as well and I cant see how Geno Smith can attack down the field. Jets have to hope Saints just look them over. Saints 34 Jets 14
Chargers (+0.5) over REDSKINS– In the wacky world of the NFL the Redskins probaboty have a better chance of making the playoffs than San Diego due to how bad the NFC East is. Still it’s hard to see them winning this week. The defense is poor and the offense is beginning to chip away as their struggles seems to be getting to the players. Chargers 28 Redskins 20
Eagles (+2.5) over RAIDERS– Oakland comes off a big win last week while the Eagles look inept with their QB issues, but Im not sure if the Raiders have the offense to take advantage of the Eagles defense and if the Eagles commit to the run can eliminate some of the play from the QB position. Eagles win a close one. Eagles 20 Raiders 17
SEAHAWKS (-16.5) over Buccaneers– While Seattle has not looked dominant of late I don’t think there is any reason to be concerned unless they begin to pull up lame at home. If they allow a team like the Bucs to hang around on the road it could be a negative sign. Best part of this game may be the cornerback chatter. Seahawks 27 Buccaneers 10
Ravens (-2.5) over BROWNS– If Baltimore has dreams of getting back to the playoffs they have to win this game against the pesky Browns. If Cleveland could muster a consistent offense they would win, but they don’t have that this season. Baltimore is pretty inconsistent as well but I’ll take Joe Flacco over the Browns QB of the week. Ravens 19 Browns 16
Steelers (+7.5) over PATRIOTS– I tend to think the line in this game is a bit overblown because of the Steelers loss last week in Oakland. That’s not to say the Steelers are very good, because they are not, but I think they can compete in the game and maybe capitalize on a Patriot mistake to cover the spread. Patriots 21 Steelers 16
Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS– Two weeks in a row for really bad Sunday Night Football games. NBC needs the flex sooner. I don’t get the line on this game as the Texans are awful this year on both sides of the ball. Don’t envision this being a game. Colts 31 Texans 16
Bears (+10.5) over PACKERS– Chicago is going to be a great unknown with the QB position, but they can use RB Matt Forte to I think keep this close. The challenge for Chicago is to not let the game turn into an early shootout because they have no chance then. I don’t think Chicago will pose a serious threat but an 11 point win in a divisional game this early in the year is quite a lot. Packers 35 Bears 27
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.