Can the Jaguars Sign Alex Mack Away from the Browns?

Posted on April 6, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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Apparently the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to make an attempt to sign center Alex Mack away from the Cleveland Browns. Mack had been designated a Transition players by Cleveland, which gives the Browns the right to match any offer sheet that Mack signs from another NFL team. So for Jacksonville to be able to sign Mack away the Jaguars need to craft an offer sheet that the Browns will find difficult to match. I want to look at some of the considerations that may go into this.

When teams do make moves on Restricted Free Agents, which are essentially the same as Transition players from a compensation standpoint, it often comes by attacking a team with limited cap room. The Patriots attempted to do that with Emmanuel Sanders in 2013 and the Falcons are currently doing that to the Saints with Rafael Bush. A team simply drives the price up slightly and hopes the other team cant match. When the Baltimore Ravens signed Joe Flacco to his incredibly player friendly contract it was in part because they were fearful another team could make an offer sheet that their cap did not allow them to match.

The cap space is of no concern for either franchise and will not play a role in the Mack decision. The Browns have the most cap room in the NFL , nearly $31 million. The Jaguars are third with about $26 million. The Browns cap space already includes Mack at $10 million, so to compare situations the Browns are really sitting at $41 million in cap space. They have one of the lowest payrolls in the NFL and will likely lead the league in cap room next year as well. So the Jaguars can not muscle the Browns into not matching a contract.

For Jacksonville to sign Mack away from the Browns they likely have to craft an offer sheet that pushes the value on the player beyond what the other team feels is a reasonable offer. The Browns just did this when they signed Andrew Hawkins away from the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals had more than enough cap space to match any offer sheet for Hawkins so the Browns hit the Bengals through the cash flows of the contract.

Hawkins would be considered a low, mid-grade receiver who had one decent year with the Bengals before getting injured. Such a player might warrant a contract worth around $3 million a season with limited guarantees since you may want to part ways after just one season if improvements do not continue. The Browns got the annual value of the deal close to that level, but they paid him an average of $5.4 million over the first two years of the deal with $6.8 million guaranteed. He would be dirt cheap in 2016 and 2017($1.4 million a season), but the odds of getting to those years to realize that benefit would be slim. The $5.4 million true contract number would be in the same ballpark as players like Danny Amendola, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordy Nelson, Riley Cooper, and Julian Edelman all players who were more established and considered better players at time of signing. In no way could the Bengals justify paying a fourth or fifth receiver top “number 2” money. Cap space did not matter. It was simply a bad investment for the team.

Jacksonville will likely need to take a similar approach. They already know that the Browns are willing to pay Mack $10 million this season. Mack’s agent can probably give an overview (though that has to be taken with a cautious eye) of the range that the Browns have found acceptable in earlier negotiations. The Jaguars need to exceed that and push the market the way that the Browns did with Hawkins.

The top end of the Center market is led by the Panthers’ Ryan Kalil($8.186M) and the Jets’ Nick Mangold ($7.725M). Those two would be followed by the more recent contracts of Max Unger ($6.583M) and Erik Wood($6.512M). Lets quickly do a very basic breakdown of the players prior to extension.

	Age (1^st extension year)	Game Started	Pro Bowl	All Pro
Mack	29	80	2	0
Kalil	26	47	2	0
Mangold	27	64	2	1
Unger	27	32	0	0
Wood	28	47	0	0

The two things three things that jump out to me here are the games, pro bowls, and his age. The only other player on the list to start every game prior to extension was Mangold who played four years when he was extended. Mack’s two pro bowl selections compare to the highest end players, though he had one more year to accomplish that feat than they did. Age is a negative, though, as I could reasonably expect multiple years out of these other players and cant have the same expectation of a player who will turn 29 by the end of the 2014 season.

Mack probably has a strong argument that he should be paid above Unger but there is likely an equal argument that he should not be the market setter at the position. This is where I would probably take the Browns approach and find a way to make him a market setter in realistic cash terms and bring the annual value down in end of contract terms. Lets look at the year by year cash breakdowns of the four players:

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4
Kalil	$19,000,000	$20,750,000	$30,750,000	$35,750,000
Mangold	$15,987,000	$18,670,000	$24,780,000	$29,000,000
Unger	$12,335,000	$17,335,000	$21,835,000	$26,335,000
Wood	$13,050,000	$17,250,000	$21,525,000	$26,050,000

For creating an offer sheet I think that year 2 total is extremely important. The Browns would lily consider something in the $18 million range a “fair value” for Mack. The Jaguars can push that past Kalil and start turning the contract in their favor. Moving into the $22 to $23 million territory, all of which could be guarantees, sets a new market point at the position. Year 3 is likely important as well but I think that is the stage at where you begin to pull back a little and start to bring him under Kalil. By year 5 I would get him under Mangold. How would we structure such a deal?

Year	Age	Salary	Cumulative Cash	APY
2014	29	$18,000,000	$18,000,000	$18,000,000
2015	30	$5,000,000	$23,000,000	$11,500,000
2016	31	$7,000,000	$30,000,000	$10,000,000
2017	32	$4,000,000	$34,000,000	$8,500,000
2018	33	$4,000,000	$38,000,000	$7,600,000

So in this case we are creating a contract that does bring the annual value down below Mangold so the team is not really setting a new level for the position, but we are doing it in a manner that will give the Browns some real consideration before matching the offer sheet, just like the Browns gave the Bengals a few weeks ago.

One thing about the above offer that could be a problem is the fact that the Jaguars would be unable to use the all cash contract structure that they typically utilize with the above cash schedule. This is because of a rule that causes the difference in salary between year 1 and year 2 to be treated as signing bonus. To avoid that Jacksonville would have to make the offer sheet contain something along the lines of a year 1 salary of $15,000,000 and year two salary of $8 million. That is still probably strong enough to make it work, but a small signing bonus to drive the first year cash might not be out of the realm of possibilities.

If the Jaguars can make the above numbers work in their all cash system they won’t be hampered by the contract as Mack gets older and his play tails off. Cap charges of $4 million on the back end will probably match his performance on the field. If he agrees to the low backend salaries it also has him setting a max level that he could expect if he is still performing well and the Jaguars want to consider an extension to allow him to play until he is 35. The Jaguars should not have any significant contracts coming due in the next two years to where high cap charges impact them in any way. Provided Mack continues to play well and be a near the top player he can greatly benefit an offensive line that is being revamped.

So let’s see how this plays out but I tend to think if you want the player in this instance you need to make some concessions on front end cost to make the other team avoid re-signing the player. We don’t see these offers often in the NFL so it’s a good thing to study in the rare events when they do occur.

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Breaking Down the DeSean Jackson Signing and the Future of the Redskins

Posted on April 2, 2014April 2, 2014 by Andrew Cohen

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DeSean Jackson signed a three-year contract worth $24 million with the Washington Redskins today.

Year	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Roster Bonus	Workout Bonus	Other Bonus	Cap Number	Dead Money	Cap Savings
2014	$1,000,000	$1,250,000	$1,500,000	$500,000	$0	$4,250,000	$16,000,000	($11,750,000)
2015	$3,750,000	$1,250,000	$3,750,000	$500,000	$0	$9,250,000	$11,750,000	($2,500,000)
2016	$3,750,000	$1,250,000	$3,750,000	$500,000	$0	$9,250,000	$2,500,000	$6,750,000
2017	$8,000,000	$1,250,000	$0	$0	$0	$9,250,000	$1,250,000	$8,000,000

via Jason—Jackson received a $5 million signing bonus and his 2014 and 2015 base salaries and workout bonuses are guaranteed. In addition, Jackson can earn up to $1.5 million in 2014 and $3.75 million in roster bonuses in 2015 and 2016 that are paid out as long as he is on any of the roster lists besides suspended or non-football injury. The 2017 season is a “dummy year” that is strictly in place to reduce the salary cap charges in the contract. That season automatically voids following the Super Bowl that year. Base salaries of the contract are $1,000,000(2014), $3,750,000(2015), and $3,750,000(2016).

Most media reports have Jackson receiving $16 million in guaranteed money. This $16 million figure comes from his $5 million signing bonus, $5.75 million combined in ’14-’15 base salaries and workout bonuses, $1.5 million 2014 roster bonus and $3.75 million 2015 roster bonus. I am not sure if those roster bonuses are officially full guarantees (as Jason has not yet received the paperwork), but for all intents and purposes they are.

What this means for DeSean:

Look at this deal as a two-year contract worth $16 million dollars. Jackson receives his second signing bonus in the past three offseason’s, and is now guaranteed to make $34 million over a span of four-years ($18 million in 2012 & 2013 with Philadelphia and $16 million in 2014 & 2015 with Washington).

Looking at other wide receivers around the league, there aren’t many who have averaged $8.5 million over a four-year period. The list of guys who have recently accomplished this (or undoubtedly will in the next year or two based on the structure of their contact) includes just six names: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall and Roddy White. There are other young guys–such as AJ Green and Julio Jones–who will likely get there (or beyond), but of course you never know.

So for somebody who’s seemingly overly-consumed by the amount of money he makes, DeSean has done pretty well.

What this means for the Redskins:

It means DJax is locked into the Nation’s Capital for both 2014 and 2015, carrying respective cap hits of $4.25 million & $9.25 million. After 2015, the Redskins will have to quickly decide (by the beginning of the 2016 league year) if Jackson is worth a $9.25 million cap hit in a season where he’ll turn 30. If they decide he isn’t they’ll, be forced to eat $2.5 million in dead money.

It also means that Washington’s top three receivers—Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Andre Roberts—will count for $22.7 million against the 2015 cap. While this is quite a large cap number for a team’s receiving core to assume, this shouldn’t have long-term cap implications for the Redskins; all three players can be released with minimal cap damage after 2015.

However, some tough roster decisions may still lie ahead for Washington. The Redskins now have over $117 million in 2015 cap commitments, which of course doesn’t include a salary for Brian Orakpo, who was recently franchised and has not yet been signed to a long-term deal. RG3 should also be in line for a monstrous extension at some point in the near future (he’s eligible after this coming season). This is definitely a situation to pay close attention to in the future…

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Where Will DeSean Jackson End Up?

Posted on April 2, 2014April 2, 2014 by Andrew Cohen

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If DeSean Jackson had been a free agent on March 11^th, all 32 teams would have at least done their due diligence on the explosive wide receiver. But as March turns to April, most teams have already filled their holes and/or exhausted their funds, and are now exerting all of their energy towards May’s draft.

Obviously, teams make exceptions when it comes to premium talent. The Saints were not in prime financial position to sign Jairus Byrd earlier this offseason, but they found a way to get the deal done (likely mortgaging their future in the process).

At the same time, “premium talented” guys who are fairly paid aren’t released in their prime for no good reason. Jackson is explosive both on and off the field, meaning any team who gives him a long-term deal will have to think long and hard before doing so. It also means that teams with tight cap situations won’t be players in the D-Jax sweepstakes.

Jackson doesn’t turn 28 until December. While unlikely, it’s conceivable that he could sign a one or two-year deal and hit free agency again while still in his prime. However, it’s more likely that he signs a four or five-year deal structured in a way that the first two years are guaranteed.

I could see something such as a four-year contract worth $41 million, including a $6 million signing bonus and $15 million guaranteed. I have drawn up this estimate below, with his $7 signing bonus, $5 million 2014 base salary, and $3 million of his $8 million 2015 base salary accounting for the guaranteed portion of this deal. A deal structured like this—with the team eating $8.25 million in 2015 dead money and therefore saving only $1.5 million against the 2015 cap—means Johnson would almost certainly earn $20 million over the first two years.

Projected Contract for DeSean Jackson

Year	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Cap Number	Dead Money	Cap Savings
2014	$5,000,000	$1,750,000	$6,750,000	–	–
2015	$8,000,000	$1,750,000	$9,750,000	$8,250,000	$1,500,000
2016	$10,000,000	$1,750,000	$11,750,000	$3,500,000	$8,250,000
2017	$10,000,000	$1,750,000	$11,750,000	$1,750,000	$10,000,000

So who are the potential suitors under my projected scenario? Let’s take a look:

Note: Effective Cap Space is simply (Remaining 2014 Cap Space)-(Projected Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies). It depicts how much cap space each team is theoretically working with at this point in time.

Ranked in descending order of most likely to least likely to sign Jackson.

Washington Redskins

Remaining 2014 Cap Space= $6,479,886

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies=$1,077,167

Effective 2014 Cap Space=$5,402,719

The front-runners simply because Jackson just left a visit to Washington and are reportedly in negotiations. The Redskins have already spent a bunch of money this offseason, which includes the signing of WR Andre Roberts to a 4-year/$16 million deal ($5,250,000 guaranteed). With $5.4 million in effective cap space they could afford D-Jax at around the price I proposed. However, with Pierre Garcon, Roberts and Jordan Reed comprising a very legitimate playmaking threesome, I don’t necessarily think it’d be the best usage of Dan Snyder’s money when looking at the big picture.

Oakland Raiders

Remaining 2014 Cap Space=$15,552,626

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookie Class= $4,241,589

Effective 2014 Cap Space = $11,311,037

In my opinion, Oakland makes the most sense of any team. They are in great cap position for both the present and the future, have football’s least talented roster, and a GM (who assembled this horrid roster) that needs to win games next season in order to save his job. Jackson is also from the SoCal area.

Cleveland Browns

Remaining 2014 Cap Space= $30,781,931

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies=$5,946,259

Effective 2014 Cap Space=$24,835,672

The Browns are also reportedly interested, which certainly makes sense. They have a glaring hole at their second wide receiver spot, as well as the money to lure Jackson in. The questions become whether Jackson would want to play in Cleveland (and if they pay up, I don’t foresee this being an issue), as well as whether new GM Ray Farmer is willing to take this risk on the volatile star.

Miami Dolphins

Remaining 2014 Cap Space= $16,682,418

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies=$1,984,918

Effective 2014 Cap Space=$14,697,500

Scheme-wise, this wouldn’t be a great fit. Jackson is a vertical threat in the passing game, very similar (albeit more talented) to current Dolphins top receiver Mike Wallace. However, Miami does have the cap space to lure Jackson in, as well as an owner who has shown he isn’t afraid to make a splash.

New York Jets

Remaining 2014 Cap Space= $28,689,282

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies=$2,313,384

Effective 2014 Cap Space=$26,375,898

On paper, this certainly makes sense. Similar to the situation in Cleveland, the Jets are loaded with cap space and are in need of another playmaker. But John Idzik’s conservative approach to free agency thus far makes this scenario unlikely.

San Francisco 49ers

Remaining 2014 Cap Space=$4,589,810

Cap Space Required to Sign Rookies=$2,129,953

Effective 2014 Cap Space =$2,459,857

I included the 49ers simply because they have reportedly shown interest in Jackson. However with so little spending money and the need to lock up some core players (i.e. Colin Kaepernick) in the near future, I would be absolutely shocked if D-Jax ended up in San Francisco.

The Devaluation of the NFL Running Back

Posted on March 30, 2014March 30, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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It was not that long ago that the NFL Running Back was considered one of the premier pay positions in the league. The runners were the star of the team and were considered to go hand in hand with the QB position. For a pretty long period of time the great teams in the NFL were a partnership of quarterback and running back and the running back was a premier pay and draft position. But a number of factors ranging from rules changes to injuries to advances in analytics used in roster management the running back has become one of the lesser valued spots in the NFL. As free agency now draws to a close I think we can say that the position may have hit rock bottom.

The amount of money being spent this year on running backs is next to nothing. Going into free agency there was talk of the Texans’ Ben Tate earning up to $7 million a season and the Broncos’ Knowshon Moreno getting in the $5 million a year range. The two ended up signing short term contracts worth about $3 million a season and a total of $3.75 million in full guarantees between the two of them. In fact things have become so bad for the position that since last season we can now compare the running back market with that of the kicker.

To compare the two I wanted to look at the top 10 contracts by annual value signed for both positions, according to my records, since the start of 2013 training camp (I don’t have terms for Maurice Jones Drew to include). The top running back contract I believe was signed by Marcel Reece, who is actually a fullback, who earned $3.67 million a year. The highest full guarantee belonged to Darren Sproles who received $5.5 million from the Eagles in his recent two year extension. The bottom of the list is Bruce Miller, also a fullback, who earned a $1.8 million a year contract extension from the 49ers. The full list of runners that I am using are Reece, Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, Sproles, Tate, Joique Bell, Moreno, Rashad Jennings, Pierre Thomas, Bruce Miller, and McFadden.

The high end contract for kickers was Sebastian Janikowski’s $3.775 million a year extension that was given by the Raiders last August. It also had the highest guarantee of anyone with an $8 million guarantee. The low end deal would be Josh Brown’s new deal with the Giants which averages $1.25 million a season and just has $100,000 in guarantees. My top 10 kicker deals are Janikowski, Robbie Gould, Dan Bailey, Graham Gano, Phil Dawson, Nick Folk, Steven Hauschka, Adam Vinatieri, Dan Carpenter, and Brown.

Here is the graphical breakdown of how the positions fared since 2013 training camp:

In basically every financial metric the running back is now running alongside the kicker. The lone category where the running back is doing considerably better is the percentage of guarantee. Their full guarantee represents about 44% of the total contract value compared to 30% for kickers. That is due to the short contract terms of the runners, who average 2.8 years, compared to the kickers, who average 3.6.

The question runners will need to ask themselves is if free agency the last two years is indicative of where the position is now headed and how fast the market will get down to this spot. The top of the running back market is still much higher than that of kickers as the new deals signed by kickers represent some of the highest deals for the position, while no new running back contracts are near the top of the position.

The problem for star runners who could be hitting free agency soon, such as CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews, is the lack of players that will remain active who earn a reasonable salary for them to use as a point of comparison. There are currently 10 players on veteran contracts who earn more than $5 million a season. How many will last by the start of 2015’s free agency period is certainly open for debate.

Chris Johnson’s $13.4 million contract represents one of the last terrible decision “old era” type contracts. Johnson has been a disappointment since signing his contract extension, never showing the same abilities as he did in the first two years of his career when he earned the nickname CJ2K. The Titans will likely release him this season if he will not agree to a massive reduction in salary. He still has tremendous “name value” but how far that takes him will probably signal if the market in the future will have any legs for growth.

The Eagles LeSean McCoy averages $9 million a year, but with a $10.25 million cash number in 2015 and the new presence of Sproles it likely signals that that, long term, McCoy’s usefulness is in doubt. Arian Foster’s $8.7 million a year contract may already be in jeopardy as his body is breaking down after five seasons in the NFL. The Seahawks have likely already drafted the replacement for workhorse back Marshawn Lynch, who has two years remaining on his contract. He’ll survive 2014 but 2015 could be a different story as he is set to earn $2 million more than he does this season.

Jonathan Stewart, the other really “bad decision” running back along with Johnson, is only on the Panthers because of the salary cap consequences of cutting him. Ray Rice was in danger of being a June 1 cut for being ineffective and now his off the field issues make it almost a certainty that his contract will not exist come March of 2015. Finally Frank Gore, in the last year of his contract, may not make it to the fall under his current terms. San Francisco could use cap room, has younger players on the roster, and is smart enough to not allow an aging player at a lower cost position take up this much room.

Odds are the veteran running back market in 2015 will be Adrian Peterson ($14.38 million per year), Matt Forte ($7.5 million per year), Stewart ($7.3 million a year) and Jamaal Charles ($5.4 million per year). The next highest should be Reggie Bush, assuming he does not lose his job to Bell, at $4 million per season. Nobody will compare to Peterson, who is a once in a generation talent, while Stewart is just going to be looked at as an outlier by a bad General Manager.

Moving forward we are going to be looking at a position that at best may end up no higher than $5 million and year and could be capped closer to $4 million. When you think of all the great running backs who have played in the NFL and the one time importance that had to the team it’s pretty shocking to see the devaluation to a throw away position in the NFL. But we are almost there and it sure seems to be just a matter of months before the market for Kickers, Punters, and Running Backs will be within just a few dollars of each other.

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Mark Sanchez, the Jets, and His Future

Posted on March 22, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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The Jets put an end to the Mark Sanchez era when they released their former top draft pick following the signing of QB Michael Vick. I don’t expect anyone to feel sorry for Sanchez as he certainly made millions with the Jets and did not deliver as anticipated, but the timing of the move shows what can be a very ugly side of football.

I wrote about Sanchez the other week and the leverage that the Jets had with his contract and future. The short version is that the Jets opted to extend Sanchez for salary cap relief back in 2012 where they guaranteed him a 2013 roster spot and in return got him on a moderate cost contract if he proved to be a star caliber player. As a concession for the guaranteed 2013 season, Sanchez would take a late in the offseason roster bonus in 2014 giving the Jets ample time to negotiate a trade or pay cut in the event Sanchez flamed out.

As things turned out it looks as if the Jets never had any intention of keeping Sanchez on the Jets unless an emergency situation arose. According to ESPN’s Rich Cimini the Jets never asked him about a pay cut further indicating that they had no intentions to keep him on the roster. It seemed as if Sanchez’ fate hinged on a series of events of which the Raiders QB decision was the deciding event. The Raiders either represented a potential trade partner or the landing destination for Vick that would cause the emergency scenario to arise.

The wheels were set in motion when the Tennessee Titans release Ryan Fitzpatrick who quickly signed with the Houston Texans. That move made Texans veteran Matt Schaub immediately available to a trade partner and the Raiders quickly emerged as the trade partner for Schaub. With the Raiders job locked up, the Jets swiftly moved to sign Vick, a move that likely could have been made over a week ago had the Jets drawn a line in the sand about a decision.

While Sanchez twisted in the win, job after job disappeared for him that would give him an opportunity to compete for a starting job: Jacksonville re-signed Chad Henne, Josh McCown went to Tampa Bay, Matt Cassel went back to Minnesota, Charlie Whitehurst ended up in Tennessee, Fitzpatrick signed with Houston, and finally the Raiders grabbed Schaub. Even backup situations were settled with Seattle signing Tarvaris Jackson, the Chargers signing Kellen Clemens, San Francisco trading for Blaine Gabbert, and Cincinnati taking in Jason Campbell.

The Jets had every right to do what they did to try to protect their interests as best as possible but it was only possible due to the date of that bonus. Others on the Jets with earlier bonuses were immediately released. The situation could not have been pleasing to Sanchez who likely felt the rug was pulled out from under him in New York when the team traded for Tim Tebow in 2012 and then played him for no reason in a meaningless situation in 2013 that saw him get injured and spend the year on injured reserve. Sanchez will likely now have to find a team with an injury risk if he wants to re-start his career. He won’t get an opportunity to compete in the offseason.

My gut feeling is that Sanchez’ career path is probably more David Carr than Rich Gannon in that his upside is veteran backup at the minimum salary, but most do get another shot to compete for a job. Sanchez will only get that if someone else gets hurt in 2014 or will have to put his career on hold until 2015. The salary for a “high end” backup is around $4-$5 million a year for two years, but with free agency so late in the process and a desire to hit free agency in 2015, Sanchez might be best suited to take less money for a better opportunity. Who could be interested?

Cleveland– The Browns are the lone team in the NFL without a player that should be expected to start and would be his one chance to redeem himself in 2014. Their head coach is familiar with Sanchez, though that may not be a positive for Sanchez as the Jets did more to hide him in his time in the NFL because they were fearful of him giving games away. They have the cap space to make a two year commitment where he holds the seat warm for a draft pick.

St. Louis– The Rams also have an association with Sanchez since current Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer is his former offensive coordinator in New York. The two seemed to get along well in NY and Sam Bradford is both an injury risk and an ineffective pull possibility. If the Rams plan on drafting a QB than Sanchez makes no sense, but for now Bradford is the only guy on the roster. They have about $9 million in cap room so they could offer the one year lower cost $2-$3 million type contract.

Chicago– Jay Cutler is virtually guaranteed to miss games, failing to reach 16 games in any season after 2009. The Bears have no real backups in place and this is a great opportunity. The team has two incredible receivers and a system that made people think Josh McCown discover how to play the position at a high level in his mid 30’s. The Bears only have $6.6 million in cap room and were unwilling to pay McCown to be a high end backup, but if I am Sanchez I would take this job for close to the minimum because the upside here is tremendous. They should push the Bears for a contract.

Buffalo– This is another injury risk possibility and potential ineffective pull, but with more competition. EJ Manuel is only in his second year in Buffalo and is a first round draft pick. In addition the team likes Thaddeus Lewis who is the low cost backup. I could see interest in Sanchez but the upside might not be there to justify taking the low cost contract they would offer. Last year they paid Kevin Kolb just $1 million guaranteed to try out. Kolb suffered a concussion and was out for the year so he collected $2.75 million.

Green Bay– Aaron Rodgers went down last season and with him so did the Packers season. I wouldn’t see the Packers paying much, but there is always a chance that you get one game to show what you are worth if Rodgers gets hurt or is a healthy scratch. Those few games saw Matt Flynn get paid elsewhere. The negative is if you play poorly in Green Bay there is probably no coming back and they wont hesitate to pull the plug in the summer if the cost is not that much.

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Raiders Trade for Matt Schaub

Posted on March 22, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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Yesterday the Oakland Raiders moved a sixth round pick to the Houston Texans to acquire the rights to QB Matt Schaub. Schaub had come under great scrutiny since the Texans signed him to an ill-advised extension worth $15.5 million a year, a number that, at the time, made him one of the two highest paid “non-Super Bowl” winners in the NFL. Schaub was coming off injury and had just one year remaining on his contract in 2012 when the Texans made the move. By the end of 2012, when team expectations were high and Schaub’s physical limitations began to be scrutinized more due to those expectations and his contract, he began to falter.

After an exit in the 2012 playoffs there were questions as to whether or not Schaub should be back in 2013, technically just the first year of his new contract. The large guarantees in his contract made that an impossibility but the talk of it seemed to rattle his confidence. Schaub had a meltdown under the pressure and went through a series of injuries and benchings during the course of the 2013 season. It was clear he needed a new home to try to resurrect his career.

For the Raiders the move is a no-brainer. They had no quarterback of note on the roster and need to turn the fortunes of the team around. Before Schaub began to get rattled in 2012 he was having a very good season and had always been careful with the football. As long as his confidence returns at worst the Raiders get a professional behind center.

The contract itself is one that the Raiders should not touch to give him added “job security” or anything else they feel may help him with his confidence. The Raiders have a high draft pick and should not look at the addition of Schaub as a reason to not use it on a prospect, so keeping outs in his contract would be a smart decision. Schaub will be 33 this season and while that is young enough to get two years out of him I would not call it likely to expect much more than that, at least at a relatively high level of football. The Raiders also need to plan for the fact that Schaub could also be finished.

Because no prorated money enters the equation in a trade the contract itself works out perfect for the Raiders current contract format of no signing bonus money and instead the use of base salaries and incentivized roster bonuses. Schaub will only cost the Raiders a maximum of $11 million this season in cash and salary cap, which is the second lowest paid veteran “starter” QB in the NFL behind Alex Smith of the Chiefs. If you look at this as a two year contract with an annual value of $12.25 million it ranks as 4th lowest among veteran starters. So the contract is not as bad from the Raiders perspective as some are making it out to be.

The decision will bring more scrutiny to GM Reggie McKenzie’s handling of the Carson Palmer situation in 2013. McKenzie wanted Palmer to take a paycut of $3 million in 2013 which Palmer refused to do because of how he felt he was being treated in Oakland. McKenzie traded Palmer and a 7th rounder to the Arizona Cardinals for a 6th rounder and a conditional draft pick in 2014. The Raiders would then send a 5th in 2014 to the Seahawks for Matt Flynn, who was an epic disaster and released in October. McKenzie restructured Flynn’s contract for both cap relief and the ability to give him that “job security” adding more dollars to the picture that the Raiders had to account for when Flynn was released.

Palmer ended up reducing his salary in 2013 and 2014 with the Cardinals from $27 million to $16 million with a chance to earn $4 million in incentives and escalators. The guarantees were just $10 million. Schaub is essentially a lateral move from Palmer putting the Raiders right back to where they were in 2012. All told the Raiders will spend, assuming Schaub does not take a paycut, $26.84 million in salary cap charges in 2013 and 2014 for Palmer, Flynn, and now Schaub. The Cardinals spent $16 on Palmer over the same time period.

The Raiders are probably the best example in the NFL of the desperate levels that teams will go to try to fix the QB position. In the last three years the Raiders have sent draft picks to other teams for the services of Jason Campbell(4th in 2012), Carson Palmer(1st in 2012 and 2nd in 2013), Matt Flynn (5th in 2014) and now Matt Schaub(6th in 2014). The first three QB’s started a total of 43 games in four seasons going 19-24. Over that same time frame the Raiders have also drafted Terrelle Pryor (supplemental that cost a 3rd in 2012) and Tyler Wilson (4th in 2013). Pryor started 10 games in 3 years while Wilson was released in 2013. When you combine all the picks(1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th, 6th) the Raiders have essentially given up an entire draft for the position. That’s quite the waste of resources.

For McKenzie he needs Schaub to work out our this will likely be the end of his run in Oakland, where he oversaw the salary cap teardown of the team and had little success on the field while struggled with the mistakes of the organization before him. The Raiders have spent approximately $47 million in cap space this season, mainly on veterans likely leaving their primes than entering it, which means the improvement needs to come quickly. They still maintain cap flexibility as almost every contract has a one year escape window, but he wont be in Oakland if they have to pull that switch in 2015.

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The Replacement Cost of Panthers WR Steve Smith

Posted on March 21, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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The Carolina Panthers made the signing of WR Jerricho Cotchery official today and I got a copy of what I believe to be accurate contract terms and was a bit surprised at the numbers. As we all know the Panthers released lifelong Panther Steve Smith earlier this offseason and allowed Brandon LaFell to sign with the New England Patriots. The Panthers receiving corps was more or less non-existent, with the team devoting just about $3 million in salary cap charges before the Cotchery signing. While I don’t think anyone will argue that Cotchery was brought in to be a number one option for the team (the consensus on Twitter was maybe he is a LaFell replacement)I wanted to look at this from a financial standpoint and compare him with Smith and see if there was really any financial justification to releasing him.

I had speculated when the Panthers were rumored to be trading/cutting smith that this situation was about money. Smith was going to be 35 and at that age the future salaries that he was to be paid were not sustainable. I thought a fair compromise was to pay him in the ballpark of $9 million over two years and $12 over three, which is similar to the $13.5 million he ended up with between the Ravens’ and Panthers’ salary commitments. Maybe the Panthers just felt there was no price that they could really agree on but you always need to factor in a replacement cost and this is what just seems so strange with the whole decision making process.

Cotchery is a nice player who had a very solid run with the New York Jets from 2006 through 2009. Cotchery struggled with injuries in 2010 and was (quietly) upset with becoming the forgotten man of sorts with the Jets. In 2011 when he was going to be pushed to fourth on the depth chart he basically asked for a trade or release which the Jets granted him. He signed with the Steelers on a contract that was essentially for the veterans’ minimum with a chance to compete for the team. Cotchery did not do much but the team kept him on a two year deal worth a maximum value of $3 million. In 2013 he ended up as the number 3 target and had a renaissance of sorts putting up 602 yards and a stunning 10 touchdowns. It was his first time since 2009 that he put up more than 450 yards. He’ll be 32 years old in 2014.

Smith produced 745 yards in 2013, a steep decline from his 1,000 plus yard seasons in 2011 and 2012. He’ll be 35 in 2014 and I think it is a legitimate question that he could be finished as a top player. But would you rather take your chances on a 35 year old Smith that has caught 216 passes for 3,313 yards over the last three years or the 32 year old Cotchery that has caught 79 passes for 1,044 yards over the same time frame? I think that answer should be clear. While the response from the defenders of the Panthers’ front office is that there is a financial component that needs to be considered here I certainly agree, but after looking at Cotchery’s contract numbers there really is not one.

When a team decides on a fate of a player there always should be a replacement cost analysis involved. While you are gaining cash and cap relief from moving on from a player you do need to replace the player and there can be a big cost component to that. Smith already had $3 million of his contract guaranteed with no offsets, a parting gift to the organization by their former General Manager that pretty much destroyed their salary cap structure. To keep Smith a Panther in 2014 it would cost the team $4 million more, assuming he did not renegotiate his contract. I can see that cost being maybe too high except Cotchery will cost the team $3.5 million.

Let’s first look at the 2014 scenarios, with Smith designated a June 1 cut

Scenario	2014 Cash	2014 Cap
Keep Smith	$7,000,000	$7,000,000
Cut Smith	$6,500,000	$6,700,000
Difference	$500,000	$300,000

So in 2014 the Panthers will generate a grand total of $500,000 in cash savings and $300,000 in cap space to bring in Cotchery over keeping Smith. Let’s extend it out to 2015 with the assumption that Smith is cut and Cotchery is kept (his cap is similar if he stays or goes):

Scenario	2015 Cash	2015 Cap
Keep Smith	$0	$6,000,000
Cut Smith	$1,500,000	$5,950,000
Difference	-$1,500,000	$50,000

Again it’s essentially no savings. The only savings in this case is realized if Cotchery plays out two years and you are certain that you would cut Smith in 2014 and need to replace him with a player who would cost more than Cotchery.

What if you offered Smith the same deal he signs with the Ravens such that you could keep him for two seasons like they expect to keep Cotchery?

Scenario	2014 Cash	2014 Cap
Rework Smith	$7,500,000	$7,166,666
Sign Cotchery	$6,500,000	$6,700,000
Difference	$1,000,000	$466,666

Scenario	2015 Cash	2015 Cap
Rework Smith	$3,000,000	$6,166,666
Sign Cotchery	$1,500,000	$5,950,000
Difference	$1,500,000	$216,666

I guess the bottom line is that over a two year period the Panthers expect to save $2.5 million in real dollars by releasing Smith and signing Cotchery as a replacement. The team only saves around $640,000 in cap over the same timeframe. If Cotchery would prove to be a one season rental and the alternative option was to keep Smith for just one year the teams saves just $500,000 in cash and cap.

In this case I just can’t see the cost savings justifying the decision that the Panthers made here. The upside with Smith is so much greater than Cotchery that it just doesn’t seem to make much sense to make the move. For the move to work out Cotchery is going to have to put together back to back decent seasons for the first time since 2008-2009 while Smith completely flames out in Baltimore. The Panthers front office has to be pretty convinced of it to make the moves they did this offseason.

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