Projecting an Extension for Chicago Bears DT Eddie Goldman

When I began writing this article, the Khalil Mack rumors appeared to be nothing more than a pipe dream. No one really believed the Raiders would trade one of the best defensive players in the NFL, but here we are. Without getting into the details of the trade and Mack’s monster contract (which I will do soon), I want to look at a guy who will benefit greatly from Mack’s presence on the defense. DT Eddie Goldman’s ability to take on offensive linemen is even more crucial now with an elite edge rusher on the roster.

Bears GM Ryan Pace has been known to extend his guys before entering the final season of their contract, and communication between Eddie Goldman’s camp and the Bears has reportedly been productive. One thing immediately stuck out when looking for comparable players for Chicago Bears DT Eddie Goldman; he is still only 24 years old and doesn’t turn 25 until after the 2018 regular season. A second-round draft pick out of Florida State in 2015, Goldman took a major leap this past season after injuries limited him to just six games in 2016. He appeared in 15 games and contributed on 57.5% of the Bears defensive plays, battling opposing interior offensive lines alongside Akiem Hicks. Hicks was rewarded for his outstanding play with a four-year, $48 million extension on September 9, 2017. One year later, is Eddie about to cash in too?

Goldman’s role is mainly as a run stuffing nose tackle, but in his rookie season he had 5 sacks, showing he’s certainly capable of getting after the quarterback. A nagging ankle injury derailed much of his sophomore campaign, but he never needed surgery and was able to get proper rest once the Bears were no longer in contention. Goldman showed just the type of dynamic player he can be in 2017, and with presumably more growth ahead for the 24-year-old, the Bears would be smart to lock him up long term.

According to Pro Football Reference, Goldman had 27 solo tackles and 17 assists in 2017, both career highs by double digits. While his sacks dipped to just 1.5 in 2017, Goldman made his presence felt in the backfield with 3 more tackles for loss. Basic statistics are not always the best way to measure a position such as nose tackle, as they can be hard to come by.

The Quant Edge is a goldmine of advanced data, including an “Injury Impact Tool” that shows the effect on a team that comes from an individual player being on the field or off it (I highly recommend checking out the site, it is a great new resource for NFL fans). The table below shows Bears opponents’ average yards per carry during Eddie Goldman’s “In Splits” and “Out of Splits.”

In 2016 when Goldman missed ten games with an ankle injury, opponents’ yards per carry rose over a yard from 3.59 to 4.63 yards per carry. This trend continued in 2017 when Goldman played over half of the defensive snaps. Other immeasurable data, such as how Goldman’s presence on the field frees up pass rushers like Akiem Hicks, paints a more complete picture of Eddie’s contribution to the Chicago Bears. Goldman now commands the respect of opposing offensive lines, and if he pulls double teams this season then Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and brand-new Bear Khalil Mack will be getting after the quarterback quite often. Additionally, Goldman’s relationship with Bears DC Vic Fangio is very strong, as he had many kind words to share with the media when Fangio chose to stay in Chicago this offseason.

Goldman’s importance in Chicago is clear; determining his market requires a look around the league, and it is a bit foggy. With Goldman being a 2015 draft pick he still has a year left on his deal, so there are no comparable players from his draft class that have received new contracts (Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton were the only DTs drafted ahead of him). The next issue with finding comps is that 3-4 DTs and 4-3 DTs are technically different positions. However, the NFL considers all DTs the same when it comes to determining franchise tag amounts, so I am going to include 4-3 DTs. The players I have used to compare with Eddie Goldman, for varying reasons, are Beau Allen, Star Lotulelei and Timmy Jernigan.

The below table is the average playtime percentages and cumulative stats for the two years preceding when these players signed their current contracts:

Beau Allen is a 26-year-old, 4-3 DT for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Allen was a seventh-round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Wisconsin. Allen was given a three-year, $15 million contract by the Bucs on March 15, 2018. The Eagles defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, so Allen electing to sign as a free agent with the Bucs was a different situation than Eddie Goldman’s. Nevertheless, they have both worked to maximize their limited opportunities, Goldman because of injury and Allen because of a steep depth chart. Allen is the biggest special teams contributor of the group, but has the fewest sacks per game by a good margin. It is fair to wonder what the impact was on Beau Allen playing with one of the best DTs in the league in Fletcher Cox, although Jernigan was obviously in the same position. Allen’s deal will serve as our floor.

Star Lotulelei at 28 years old is quite a bit older than Goldman which complicates the comparison, but he just signed his second NFL contract for five years, $50 million on March 15, 2018 with the Buffalo Bills. Lotulelei was playing under his fifth-year option in 2017 in Carolina, as he was the Panthers’ first round draft pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Lotulelei is on the field a ton both on defense and in special teams and plays a more similar role to Eddie Goldman than the other two comps. Here are Lotulelei’s In-Splits and Out-of-Splits:

Lotulelei clogged up the middle against the run and created space for Carolina’s great edge rushers on the outside. He certainly had proven more in his career before signing his latest contract, but Eddie Goldman will likely be signing a third contract by the time he turns 28. Given Goldman’s youth and potential, I think Lotulelei’s $10 million APY could be a benchmark used in negotiations by Goldman’s representation.

Finally, Timmy Jernigan will serve as our ceiling. Jernigan is a 25-year-old, 4-3 DT for the Philadelphia Eagles. He was drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Florida State (sound familiar?) by the Baltimore Ravens and was traded to Philadelphia going into 2017. About two months into the 2017 season, on November 10, Jernigan was given a four-year, $48 million contract extension. Jernigan’s 10 sacks and 13 tackles for loss in the two seasons prior to his current contract show how he can get into the backfield and disrupt an offense. While the Eagles obviously regret very little about their 2017 season, they might regret giving Jernigan an early extension. Jernigan underwent back surgery for a herniated disc this offseason and is on the Eagles’ Non-Football Injury list heading into 2018, meaning he will miss at least the first six games of the season. This is essentially the risk you take with an early extension. It enables teams to negotiate a more team-friendly contract but opens them up to paying a player earlier than necessary who ends up injured. This may be on the minds of Ryan Pace and the Bears front office.

Following the Bears’ trade for Khalil Mack and his subsequent massive extension, the Bears have $6,255,556 in cap space according to OverTheCap.com. Goldman’s 2018 Cap number is currently $1,809,282. Taking a look at Jernigan’s contract, I predict the Bears will try to structure Goldman’s the same way for 2018:

Timmy Jernigan’s Extension Year

The base salary from Jernigan’s final year of his rookie deal was not changed in the extension, so the $2 million proration of his $10 million signing bonus (additional $376,891 is remainder of original signing bonus) was the only additional money added to his 2017 Cap Number. The Bears will attempt to mirror this in Goldman’s extension.

At 24, Eddie Goldman will have a great opportunity for “another bite at the apple.” We saw above that Star Lotulelei just signed a five-year, $50 million deal at 28. For this reason, I think four new years on an extension will be the maximum Goldman’s camp is looking for. Lastly, throughout this offseason, far before Khalil Mack, Ryan Pace has shown he is willing to pay a premium for top end talent that he believes in. Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and Allen Robinson all came with several question marks. Limited roles, injuries, etc. Eddie Goldman has his own injury history, but he also has a huge leg up on all of those guys; Goldman was Ryan Pace’s second ever draft pick as General Manager. Oh, and the first? Kevin White, who is effectively still making his Bears debut this Sunday, playing in his sixth NFL game. This deal is a win-win for all parties.

Look for a Goldman extension in the four year/$44 million range, with an $8 million signing bonus and $20 million fully guaranteed at signing (so Bears will have $4,255,556 in 2018 Cap Space). Ryan Pace likes to guarantee base salary, so approximately $7-8 million total could be guaranteed for Goldman’s 2019 and 2020 seasons. Lastly, Pace also employs March roster bonuses; the remaining $4-5 million guaranteed at signing could be in 2019 and 2020 roster bonuses. 

Here is Akiem Hicks’ contract extension from last season for reference to Pace’s style:

2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan

This week’s contract estimate is for our first 4-3 defensive tackle, Bennie Logan.  In 2013 the Philadelphia Eagles snapped up Logan in the 3rd round of the draft and he contributed immediately, logging 40% of the defensive snaps during his rookie season, playing in all 16 games.

Though Logan has been a mainstay on the Philly front four in each of his professional seasons, I feel he may have a hard time convincing his current employer to offer him the second contract he is probably expecting.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan »

2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams

Last week, we established a market for upcoming free agent Denver nose tackle Sylvester Williams despite some difficulty finding appropriate players to use as comparables for the 4th year player because there just aren’t a lot of 2nd contract interior linemen in the league with similar age/stats/production.

Today, we take a look at another 3-4 NT named Williams, this time Brandon of the Baltimore Ravens.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams »

2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams »

Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts

Given the recent comments made by Deadspin and Pro Football Talk as to the inadequacy of the current convention for reporting and discussing NFL contracts, I thought it would make sense to post the entirety of the research paper that Nick and I submitted to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  The paper can be downloaded as a PDF via the link below:

Expected Contract Value – A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts (Johnston & Barton)

Continue reading Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts »

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Defense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Defensive Lineman:

Ndamukong Suh
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $15,000 100.0% $15,000 $26,485,000
2016 $15,000 99.0% $14,850 $23,485,000
2017 $15,000 94.8% $14,220 $9,985,000
2018 $17,000,000 50.5% $8,585,000
2019 $19,000,000 34.0% $6,460,000
2020 $18,360,000 16.6% $3,047,760
Subtotal $18,136,830 $59,955,000
Total $78,091,830
Jared Odrick
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $9,000,000
2016 96.6% $8,000,000
2017 $8,500,000 68.8% $5,848,000
2018 $8,500,000 45.7% $3,884,500
2019 $8,500,000 24.3% $2,065,500
Subtotal $11,798,000 $17,000,000
Total $28,798,000
Dan Williams
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $150,000 99.6% $149,400 $7,850,000
2016 $150,000 93.5% $140,250 $7,350,000
2017 $4,500,000 56.5% $2,542,500
2018 $5,000,000 28.1% $1,405,000
Subtotal $4,237,150 $15,200,000
Total $19,437,150
Stephen Paea
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $150,000 99.1% $148,650 $7,850,000
2016 $3,450,000 85.9% $2,963,550
2017 $4,550,000 55.5% $2,525,250
2018 $5,000,000 33.1% $1,655,000
Subtotal $7,292,450 $7,850,000
Total $15,142,450
Kendall Langford
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,500,000 92.8% $2,320,000 $2,500,000
2016 $4,000,000 57.1% $2,284,000
2017 $4,000,000 32.7% $1,308,000
2018 $4,200,000 20.9% $877,800
Subtotal $6,789,800 $2,500,000
Total $9,289,800
Corey Peters
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $200,000 98.2% $196,400 $4,000,000
2016 $1,950,000 73.5% $1,433,250
2017 $2,850,000 37.1% $1,057,350
Subtotal $2,687,000 $4,000,000
Total $6,687,000
Tyson Alualu
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 95.2% $3,000,000
2016 $1,750,000 51.0% $892,500 $1,250,000
Subtotal $892,500 $4,250,000
Total $5,142,500
Tom Johnson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $50,000 94.1% $47,050 $2,250,000
2016 $2,350,000 44.4% $1,043,400
2017 $2,350,000 16.0% $376,000
Subtotal $1,466,450 $2,250,000
Total $3,716,450
Darnell Dockett
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,000,000 64.9% $1,298,000 $2,000,000
2016 $3,500,000 10.9% $381,500
Subtotal $1,679,500 $2,000,000
Total $3,679,500
Cory Redding
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 69.3% $690,000 $2,000,000
2016 $3,000,000 11.9% $357,000
Subtotal $1,047,000 $2,000,000
Total $3,047,500

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $150,000 99.7% $149,550 $11,625,000
2016 $4,675,000 97.0% $4,534,750 $6,000,000
2017 $7,550,000 76.6% $5,783,300
2018 $7,500,000 48.3% $3,622,500
2019 $7,500,000 30.1% $2,257,500
Subtotal $16,347,600 $17,625,000
Total $33,972,600
Pernell McPhee
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $175,000 99.0% $173,250 $8,500,000
2016 $7,175,000 80.7% $5,790,225
2017 $7,325,000 61.2% $4,482,900
2018 $7,575,000 39.7% $3,007,275
2019 $8,000,000 29.6% $2,368,000
Subtotal $15,821,650 $8,500,000
Total $24,321,650
Brandon Graham
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.6% $9,000,000
2016 96.0% $4,000,000
2017 $6,500,000 47.8% $3,107,000
2018 $6,500,000 31.2% $2,028,000
Subtotal $5,135,000 $13,000,000
Total $18,135,000
Brian Orakpo
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 98.0% $490,000 $8,000,000
2016 $7,000,000 66.5% $4,655,000
2017 $7,750,000 35.7% $2,766,750
2018 $7,750,000 21.4% $1,658,500
Subtotal $9,570,250 $8,000,000
Total $17,570,250
Brooks Reed
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $6,900,000
2016 $2,500,000 92.4% $2,310,000
2017 $4,100,000 67.7% $2,775,700
2018 $4,500,000 39.6% $1,782,000
2019 $4,500,000 26.5% $1,192,500
Subtotal $8,060,200 $6,900,000
Total $14,960,200
Bruce Carter
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.4% $4,250,000
2016 $4,250,000 80.2% $3,408,500
2017 $4,250,000 56.5% $2,401,250
2018 $4,250,000 29.4% $1,249,500
Subtotal $7,059,250 $4,250,000
Total $11,309,250
Trent Cole
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 88.3% $7,750,000
2016 $6,250,000 18.9% $1,181,250
Subtotal $1,181,250 $7,750,000
Total $8,931,250
Jabaal Sheard
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 96.6% $966,000 $5,000,000
2016 $5,000,000 54.0% $2,700,000
Subtotal $3,666,000 $5,000,000
Total $8,666,000
Arthur Moats
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $850,000 96.6% $821,100 $1,900,000
2016 $2,500,000 65.4% $1,635,000
2017 $2,250,000 40.5% $911,250
Subtotal $3,367,350 $1,900,000
Total $5,267,350

Linebackers:

David Harris
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.8% $7,500,000
2016 79.6% $7,500,000
2017 $6,500,000 17.3% $1,124,500
Subtotal $1,124,500 $15,000,000
Total $16,124,500
JT Thomas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $25,000 99.2% $24,800 $3,975,000
2016 $2,475,000 76.9% $1,903,275 $525,000
2017 $3,000,000 40.9% $1,227,000
Subtotal $3,155,075 $4,500,000
Total $7,655,075
Justin Durant
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $3,250,000 79.8% $2,593,500 $1,250,000
2016 $3,000,000 51.4% $1,542,000
2017 $3,300,000 27.2% $897,600
Subtotal $5,033,100 $1,250,000
Total $6,283,100
Malcolm Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 97.1% $242,750 $3,750,000
2016 $3,000,000 54.7% $1,641,000
Subtotal $1,883,750 $3,750,000
Total $5,633,750
Josh Mauga
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 95.7% $957,000 $2,250,000
2016 $2,000,000 68.0% $1,360,000
2017 $3,000,000 30.3% $909,000
Subtotal $3,226,000 $2,250,000
Total $5,476,000
Jonathan Casillas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $25,000 98.2% $24,550 $2,975,000
2016 $2,500,000 61.1% $1,527,500
2017 $2,500,000 33.6% $840,000
Subtotal $2,392,050 $2,975,000
Total $5,367,050

Cornerbacks:

Darrelle Revis
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $16,000,000
2016 95.9% $17,000,000
2017 $9,000,000 64.8% $5,832,000 $6,000,000
2018 $11,000,000 32.2% $3,542,000
2019 $11,000,000 15.3% $1,683,000
Subtotal $11,057,000 $39,000,000
Total $50,057,000
Byron Maxwell
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.8% $13,500,000
2016 97.8% $8,500,000
2017 $10,500,000 63.6% $6,678,000
2018 $10,000,000 42.6% $4,260,000
2019 $9,750,000 25.5% $2,486,250
2020 $10,750,000 19.6% $2,107,000
Subtotal $15,531,250 $22,000,000
Total $37,531,250
Kareem Jackson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 99.8% $249,500 $14,000,000
2016 $250,000 96.5% $241,250 $6,000,000
2017 $6,750,000 58.9% $3,975,750
2018 $6,750,000 37.2% $2,511,000
Subtotal $6,977,500 $20,000,000
Total $26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $10,250,000
2016 94.0% $7,750,000
2017 $9,000,000 38.4% $3,456,000
2018 $9,400,000 21.3% $2,002,200
Subtotal $5,458,200 $18,000,000
Total $23,458,200
Chris Culliver
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $8,000,000
2016 95.9% $8,000,000
2017 $8,000,000 47.9% $3,832,000
2018 $8,000,000 31.2% $2,496,000
Subtotal $6,328,000 $16,000,000
Total $22,328,000
Buster Skrine
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $6,500,000
2016 96.6% $6,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 53.7% $3,222,000
2018 $6,000,000 37.5% $2,250,000
Subtotal $5,472,000 $13,000,000
Total $18,472,000
Davon House
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $6,500,000
2016 $2,500,000 93.0% $2,325,000 $3,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 63.1% $3,786,000
2018 $6,000,000 35.4% $2,124,000
Subtotal $8,235,000 $10,000,000
Total $18,235,000
Cary Williams
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 96.6% $7,000,000
2016 $5,000,000 49.0% $2,450,000
2017 $6,000,000 21.7% $1,302,000
Subtotal $3,752,000 $7,000,000
Total $10,752,000
Brandon Browner
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.3% $5,000,000
2016 $2,250,000 67.8% $1,525,500 $2,750,000
2017 $5,000,000 18.3% $915,000
Subtotal $2,440,500 $7,750,000
Total $10,190,500
Brice McCain
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 91.3% $913,000 $2,000,000
2016 $2,500,000 41.2% $1,030,000
Subtotal $1,943,000 $2,000,000
Total $3,943,000

Safeties:

Devin McCourty
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 99.9% $499,500 $17,500,000
2016 $500,000 98.1% $490,500 $4,500,000
2017 $7,000,000 74.3% $5,201,000
2018 $8,000,000 42.5% $3,400,000
2019 $9,500,000 22.5% $2,137,500
Subtotal $11,728,500 $22,000,000
Total $33,728,500
Da’Norris Searcy
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.3% $7,000,000
2016 $5,000,000 83.6% $4,180,000
2017 $5,625,000 57.3% $3,223,125
2018 $6,125,000 36.6% $2,241,750
Subtotal $9,644,875 $7,000,000
Total $16,644,875
Nate Allen
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.0% $99,000 $6,900,000
2016 $5,000,000 78.3% $3,915,000
2017 $6,000,000 47.5% $2,850,000
2018 $5,000,000 34.4% $1,720,000
Subtotal $8,584,000 $6,900,000
Total $15,484,000
Rahim Moore
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 98.5% $985,000 $4,000,000
2016 $3,350,000 79.3% $2,656,550
2017 $3,650,000 52.8% $1,927,200
Subtotal $5,568,750 $4,000,000
Total $9,568,750
Antrel Rolle
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 92.2% $92,200 $4,900,000
2016 $3,000,000 42.8% $1,284,000
2017 $3,250,000 14.4% $468,000
Subtotal $1,844,200 $4,900,000
Total $6,744,200
Sergio Brown
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,500,000 94.5% $1,417,500 $1,000,000
2016 $2,250,000 69.9% $1,572,750
2017 $2,250,000 35.7% $803,250
Subtotal $3,793,500 $1,000,000
Total $4,793,500

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 89.2% $5,250,000
2016 $3,375,000 23.3% $786,375 $1,000,000
2017 $4,375,000 5.8% $253,750
Subtotal $1,040,125 $6,250,000
Total $7,290,125
Mark Sanchez
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 97.3% $4,500,000
2016 $3,500,000 45.5% $1,592,500 $1,000,000
Subtotal $1,592,500 $5,500,000
Total $7,092,500
Brian Hoyer
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 92.9% $464,500 $4,750,000
2016 $5,250,000 29.4% $1,543,500
Subtotal $2,008,000 $4,750,000
Total $6,758,000
Ryan Mallett
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 92.0% $1,610,000 $1,750,000
2016 $3,500,000 41.0% $1,435,000
Subtotal $3,045,000 $1,750,000
Total $4,795,000
Shaun Hill
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $50,000 76.1% $38,050 $3,200,000
2016 $3,250,000 8.2% $266,500
Subtotal $304,550 $3,200,000
Total $3,504,550
Blaine Gabbert
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,500,000 88.5% $1,327,500 $500,000
2016 $2,000,000 55.6% $1,112,000
Subtotal $2,439,500 $500,000
Total $2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $9,000,000
2016 98.2% $7,000,000
2017 $6,000,000 74.7% $4,482,000 $2,000,000
2018 $8,000,000 36.0% $2,880,000
2019 $8,000,000 25.7% $2,056,000
Subtotal $9,418,000 $18,000,000
Total $27,418,000
Mark Ingram
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.9% $99,900 $4,600,000
2016 $1,600,000 95.3% $1,524,800 $1,500,000
2017 $3,600,000 66.2% $2,383,200
2018 $4,600,000 40.2% $1,849,200
Subtotal $5,857,100 $6,100,000
Total $11,957,100
Shane Vereen
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 98.7% $98,700 $4,750,000
2016 $3,750,000 74.1% $2,778,750
2017 $3,750,000 46.8% $1,755,000
Subtotal $4,632,450 $4,750,000
Total $9,382,450
Frank Gore
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 96.4% $964,000 $3,500,000
2016 $1,000,000 67.2% $672,000 $3,000,000
2017 $3,500,000 14.3% $500,500
Subtotal $2,136,500 $6,500,000
Total $8,636,500
Ryan Matthews
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.4% $4,000,000
2016 $2,000,000 82.2% $1,644,000 $1,000,000
2017 $4,000,000 35.9% $1,436,000
Subtotal $3,080,000 $5,000,000
Total $8,080,000
Jerome Felton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 98.8% $98,800 $3,600,000
2016 $1,650,000 79.3% $1,308,450
2017 $1,850,000 46.6% $862,100
2018 $2,000,000 24.8% $496,000
Subtotal $2,765,350 $3,600,000
Total $6,365,350
Justin Forsett
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 97.8% $3,000,000
2016 $3,000,000 52.3% $1,569,000
2017 $3,000,000 26.6% $798,000
Subtotal $2,367,000 $3,000,000
Total $5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 100.0% $250,000 $12,750,000
2016 $250,000 97.8% $244,500 $9,750,000
2017 $10,000,000 68.3% $6,830,000
2018 $11,000,000 40.0% $4,400,000
2019 $11,000,000 26.5% $2,915,000
Subtotal $14,639,500 $22,500,000
Total $37,139,500
Randall Cobb
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,100,000 99.6% $2,091,600 $13,000,000
2016 $5,900,000 93.8% $5,534,200
2017 $9,500,000 68.6% $6,517,000
2018 $9,500,000 46.1% $4,379,500
Subtotal $18,522,300 $13,000,000
Total $31,522,300
Torrey Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 99.5% $1,243,750 $8,750,000
2016 $6,000,000 91.4% $5,484,000
2017 $8,000,000 70.1% $5,608,000
2018 $8,000,000 45.5% $3,640,000
2019 $8,000,000 31.7% $2,536,000
Subtotal $18,511,750 $8,750,000
Total $27,261,750
Dwayne Harris
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $25,000 99.9% $24,975 $4,975,000
2016 $875,000 96.7% $846,125 $2,125,000
2017 $3,000,000 70.5% $2,115,000
2018 $3,250,000 42.4% $1,378,000
2019 $3,250,000 28.1% $913,250
Subtotal $5,277,350 $7,100,000
Total $12,377,350
Andre Johnson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 92.9% $7,500,000
2016 $2,500,000 37.6% $940,000 $2,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 9.2% $552,000
Subtotal $1,492,000 $10,000,000
Total $11,492,000
Eddie Royal
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.1% $5,500,000
2016 86.9% $4,500,000
2017 $5,000,000 24.3% $1,215,000
Subtotal $1,215,000 $10,000,000
Total $11,215,000
Brian Hartline
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 95.8% $3,000,000
2016 $3,000,000 37.9%
Subtotal $1,137,000 $3,000,000
Total $4,137,000
Ted Ginn
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 84.5% $845,000 $1,700,000
2016 $1,500,000 34.6% $519,000
Subtotal $1,364,000 $1,700,000
Total $3,064,000
Jacoby Jones
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $900,000 82.0% $738,000 $1,600,000
2016 $3,000,000 20.7% $621,000
Subtotal $1,359,000 $1,600,000
Total $2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.6% $99,600 $15,000,000
2016 $100,000 97.0% $97,000 $6,000,000
2017 $7,100,000 65.6% $4,657,600
2018 $8,600,000 37.9% $3,259,400
2019 $9,100,000 26.0% $2,366,000
Subtotal $10,479,600 $21,000,000
Total $31,479,600
Lance Kendricks
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.9% $5,500,000
2016 $3,250,000 86.5% $2,811,250 $1,250,000
2017 $4,250,000 58.3% $2,477,750
2018 $4,250,000 30.9% $1,313,250
Subtotal $6,602,250 $6,750,000
Total $13,352,250
Owen Daniels
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 86.0% $1,505,000 $3,000,000
2016 $3,500,000 38.0% $1,330,000
2017 $4,000,000 14.7% $588,000
Subtotal $3,423,000 $3,000,000
Total $6,423,000
Lee Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 97.6% $244,000 $3,100,000
2016 $2,750,000 71.5% $1,966,250
2017 $3,250,000 34.1% $1,108,250
Subtotal $3,318,500 $3,100,000
Total $6,418,500
Virgil Green
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.3% $3,200,000
2016 $2,400,000 66.2% $1,588,800
2017 $2,800,000 37.2% $1,041,600
Subtotal $2,630,400 $3,200,000
Total $5,830,500
Ed Dickson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $850,000 95.9% $815,150 $2,000,000
2016 $1,900,000 65.7% $1,248,300
2017 $2,050,000 34.7% $711,350
Subtotal $2,774,800 $2,000,000
Total $4,774,800
Niles Paul
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 98.3% $245,750 $2,250,000
2016 $1,500,000 73.7% $1,105,500
2017 $2,000,000 43.3% $866,000
Subtotal $2,217,250 $2,250,000
Total $4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,000,000 99.3% $1,986,000 $8,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 94.4% $3,776,000
2017 $6,250,000 74.3% $4,643,750
2018 $6,750,000 47.1% $3,179,250
2019 $6,750,000 32.0% $2,160,000
Subtotal $15,745,000 $8,000,000
Total $23,745,000
Jeremy Parnell
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $8,000,000
2016 94.4% $6,500,000
2017 $6,500,000 56.5% $3,672,500
2018 $5,000,000 38.1% $1,905,000
2019 $6,000,000 16.9% $1,014,000
Subtotal $6,591,500 $14,500,000
Total $21,091,500
Derek Newton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $7,500,000
2016 $2,250,000 93.4% $2,101,500 $2,500,000
2017 $4,750,000 67.9% $3,225,250
2018 $4,750,000 44.8% $2,128,000
2019 $4,750,000 32.6% $1,548,500
Subtotal $9,003,250 $10,000,000
Total $19,003,250
King Dunlap
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 98.5% $492,500 $8,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 77.5% $3,875,000
2017 $6,750,000 39.6% $2,673,000
2018 $7,250,000 21.3% $1,544,250
Subtotal $8,584,750 $8,500,000
Total $17,084,750
Doug Free
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 96.9% $6,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 48.4% $1,936,000
2017 $5,000,000 18.2% $910,000
Subtotal $2,846,000 $6,000,000
Total $8,846,000
Joe Reitz
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 88.9% $1,555,750 $1,500,000
2016 $2,250,000 54.6% $1,228,500
2017 $2,500,000 20.9% $522,500
Subtotal $3,306,750 $1,500,000
Total $4,806,750
Michael Oher
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 89.0% $1,112,500 $2,500,000
2016 $3,250,000 34.6% $1,124,500
Subtotal $2,237,000 $2,500,000
Total $4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $400,000 98.8% $395,200 $12,600,000
2016 $7,700,000 89.4% $6,883,800
2017 $6,850,000 77.9% $5,336,150
2018 $8,350,000 53.5% $4,467,250
2019 $8,600,000 30.0% $2,580,000
Subtotal $19,662,400 $12,600,000
Total $32,262,400
Orlando Franklin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $10,000,000
2016 97.2% $5,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 62.9% $3,774,000
2018 $6,750,000 34.4% $2,322,000
2019 $7,250,000 21.3% $1,544,250
Subtotal $7,640,250 $15,500,000
Total $23,140,250
Clint Boling
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,100,000 98.2% $2,062,200 $5,000,000
2016 $4,250,000 84.9% $3,608,250
2017 $4,450,000 66.2% $2,945,900
2018 $4,950,000 41.9% $2,074,050
2019 $5,250,000 30.4% $1,596,000
Subtotal $12,286,400 $5,000,000
Total $17,286,400
James Carpenter
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.1% $5,000,000
2016 $4,700,000 77.8% $3,656,600
2017 $4,700,000 53.5% $2,514,500
2018 $4,700,000 37.1% $1,743,700
Subtotal $7,914,800 $5,000,000
Total $12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $4,000,000
2016 $1,200,000 91.2% $1,094,400 $1,000,000
2017 $2,800,000 51.4% $1,439,200
2018 $3,000,000 26.7% $801,000
2019 $3,000,000 17.4% $522,000
Subtotal $3,856,600 $5,000,000
Total $8,856,600
Matt Prater
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 79.5% $993,750 $750,000
2016 $2,500,000 35.2% $880,000
2017 $3,700,000 12.7% $469,900
Subtotal $2,343,650 $750,000
Total $3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.