Projecting an extension for Cody Whitehair

By: Brad Spielberger  

Throughout the 2018 off-season, the Bears were in talks for an extension with their 2015 second-round pick out of Florida State, nose tackle Eddie Goldman. Ryan Pace extended one of the players that he was personally responsible for drafting in Chicago for the first time. So far the returns have been positive. Early extensions such as Goldman’s enable teams to have a better understanding of both their roster and salary cap situation for the following offseason before that offseason arrives. Last year the Bears knew they wanted to keep Goldman around. Agreeing to a deal as he was entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract was the smart decision to move up the timing of his deal before the market increased.

This off-season is no different. 

By the numbers

The second-round draft pick at No. 56 overall for the Bears in 2016 was Kansas State interior offensive lineman Cody Whitehair. Like Goldman, the veteran interior lineman is entering the last season of a four-year rookie contract. 

At every step of the way during his tenure with the Bears, Whitehair has demonstrated exactly what the Bears were seeking when they drafted him three years ago: versatility and reliability. Whitehair has shifted back and forth between center and left guard multiple times already and has featured well in both spots. He has even handled some duties at right guard in emergency situations. That the veteran has missed only 25 total snaps in three years (per TheQuantEdge), demonstrates just how dependable of a player he is. 

Pro Football Focus deemed Whitehair’s rookie season third-best among all centers since they began recording statistics in 2006. Here is what the analytics database had to say about Whitehair’s second season in 2017: 

“Though tasked with playing guard to the tune of 259 offensive snaps last season, Whitehair still predominantly played center and played extremely well at the position in 2017. Whitehair ranked fifth in run-block grade (81.8) and fourth in run-block success percentage (17.6) in 2017.”

Whitehair was not only PFF’s third-highest-graded center in 2016, he was No. 13 in 2017, and No. 10 in 2018. At the initial peak of his accomplished career, he allowed a grand total of zero sacks and zero QB hits in 2018. This was while playing every offensive snap. 

Run blocking may have suffered a bit for the whole Bears’ offensive line unit in 2018, which will have to be mitigated in coming years. But it was Whitehair and the Bears’ collective pass protection that took a major leap forward. 

Here was PFF’s review of the whole season for the big men up front in Chicago: 

“The Bears finished the season with the league’s second-best pass blocking efficiency of any offensive line, and this was yet another team without a real weak link. Rookie James Daniels ended up earning their lowest grade at 62.3 overall, but Charles Leno Jr., Bobby Massie, and Cody Whitehair were all over 70.0.” 

All of these accolades are great, which brings up an important query: why are the Bears moving Whitehair to left guard after he was one of the NFL’s premier centers (according to at least one metric) in the last three years? It’s a multi-faceted answer.

First, James Daniels is the more natural center, as it was his college position. Second, Whitehair struggled mightily with shotgun snaps in 2018. Matt Nagy utilized the shotgun formation on 79 percent of all offensive snaps in 2018, which was tied for the second-highest percentage in the NFL. The Bears cannot afford to be stressing over quality shotgun snaps. It should be a routine exchange and the more natural center in Daniels gives them that drilled regimen.

What’s most important in Whitehair’s position shift is getting the rest of the Bears’ offensive line to ascend. PFF had complements for Charles Leno Jr. and his run blocking, but the rest of the big boys struggled mightily. Pairing Whitehair and Leno Jr. together on the left side is a calculated decision from Nagy, Pace, and offensive line coach Harry Hiestand. Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery are elite change-of-direction running backs who need space to work with before they can create magic out of thin air. Thanks to the presence of these two dynamic backs, I expect there to be a heavy usage of counters and cutbacks to the left side behind Leno Jr. and Whitehair. 

Taylor Gabriel and Cordarrelle Patterson running jet sweeps from the right side to the left should also be a feature of the Chicago offense in 2019. According to SharpFootball’s 2019 NFL preview, the Bears ran the ball behind the center and to the left more than they did to the right in 2018. This may have had something to do with Kyle Long’s absence. An understandable point considering Long’s proficiency as a bruiser in the running game. But I see this trend continuing, and perhaps expanding, in 2019.

While purely speculative, one can also assume that the Bears did not want to put too much on James Daniels’ plate in Year 1. It’s difficult enough to be a rookie in the NFL. If Daniels also had to learn all of the cadences and snap counts of a brand-new offense (along with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky), it could have been a disaster. The shift from center to left guard for Cody Whitehair and vice versa for James Daniels in 2019 makes plenty of sense, and better suits both of their skill-sets long term.

Now what effect does moving Whitehair from center to left guard have on his contract? Many seem to believe that left guards get paid significantly more than centers, but that is not the case. 

Below is a table with the top-five free agent contracts in each off-season based on average per year for both left guards and centers:

Top Five Free Agent Signings by APY

As you can see above, only in 2018 did the top-five contracts at left guard have a higher average APY than those at center. This is primarily a result of somewhat of an outlier of a contract – Andrew Norwell’s $13,300,000 per year free agent deal with the Jaguars. Norwell may have proven to be a cautionary tale for teams looking to extend their guards to big deals: he missed five games in 2018 and did not play particularly well in the other 11. In the 2019 free agency cycle, Rodger Saffold, another second-round draft pick and perhaps the best comparison to Whitehair’s situation, was the only left guard to top $7,000,000 APY. However, Mitch Morse, Maurkice Pouncey, and Matt Paradis all topped the $9,000,000 mark at center, and technically these are Whitehair’s cohorts of the past three seasons. 

Saffold received an overall PFF grade of 73.2 in his 2018 season with the Rams, compared to Cody Whitehair’s 70.4. A discrepancy that small doesn’t mean a great deal, both were good players last year. Whitehair has the benefit of youth, as he is just 27-years-old whereas Saffold is 31. 

If we look at the centers specifically, Morse is 27 and Paradis is 29. Two guys more relatable in age to Whitehair. They also played the same position as the Bears’ interior swingman the past few seasons. That makes them a potentially better gauge of his true market, even though he is sliding over to left guard for 2019. 

Morse was drafted No. 49 overall in the 2015 draft, one year before Cody Whitehair was selected at No. 56. Morse played out his rookie contract with the Chiefs and became an unrestricted free agent this off-season. While Morse did play at a high level when healthy, he missed five games in 2018 after missing nine games in 2017. There are some concerns about his concussion history, as he has already been diagnosed with three, and he remains in the Bills’ concussion protocol as of today, August 21st.

Paradis, meanwhile, is a journeyman center that was selected in the sixth round in 2014 and eventually placed on the Broncos’ practice squad. He became a UFA in 2019 after playing on a second-round RFA tender for $2.914 million in 2018. Paradis also missed seven games in 2018, though he hadn’t missed a snap in three years prior to that. Managing a PFF grade of 79 was all the more impressive in a shortened 2018 season.

Below is a table with each of the four player’s PFF grades since 2016: 

PFF Grades

While PFF grades are not the end-all be-all authority on player effectiveness, this table demonstrates the type of impact that draft pedigree can have on contract negotiations. Paradis is the only player taken later than the second round. Though he grades out better than the other three players above, he will have received the smallest contract of the group. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I believe Whitehair will come out with the largest contract of his peers.

The largest APY signing at left guard in 2018 was Norwell with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Norwell was an undrafted free agent with the Panthers and played on a RFA tender in 2017 before agreeing to terms in Jacksonville. It should be noted that the Jaguars went on a spending spree in 2018, shelling out the fourth-most cash in the league. Norwell’s three-year PFF grade average prior to 2018 was a 79.37. Norwell’s $13.3M APY extension under the 2018 salary cap equates to $14,125,620.80 APY under the 2019 salary cap. Norwell received $30 million fully guaranteed at signing out of a $66 million total, which is roughly 45 percent. Rodger Saffold, Mitch Morse, and Matt Paradis all received similar guaranteed-at-signing percentages of around 45 percent. 

While Ryan Pace, Joey Laine and Co. have presumably attempted to negotiate a lower number by offering the extension a year early (a la Jaylon Smith in Dallas), Whitehair’s camp is still probably looking for top dollar. Pace had no problem making Eddie Goldman one of the highest-paid defensive tackles in the NFL last off-season after his third season. Expecting anything but a similar contract at left guard for Whitehair may be foolhardy. The goal for the Bears’ front office at this point should be to just keep the eventual number below Norwell’s.

Whitehair’s contract projection: 

Four years, $49 million ($12.25M APY), $22.5 million fully guaranteed at signing ($14.5 million signing bonus, $1.5 million 2019 base salary, $3 million 2020 base salary, $3.5 million 2020 roster bonus). 

In this deal, there will also be a 2021 roster bonus of $3.5 million guaranteed for injury only at signing. The roster bonus will become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year. Whitehair is currently due a $1,026,078 base salary in 2019 and the remainder of his rookie contract signing bonus is for $318,103. 

Below is a table with the full contract details, including a small $473,922 pay-bump to his 2019 base salary that becomes fully guaranteed:

Whitehair has too many positives working in his favor to not receive a strong, secure contract extension. He’s 27, a former second-round draft pick, extremely dependable and reliable, and capable of playing at a high level at multiple positions. The change of position in the contract year muddles negotiations a bit, but the left guard and center market are still pretty similar.

This projection is a very nice payday for Whitehair, especially when considering that the extension is a year early as he enters the fourth year of his rookie deal. For comparison’s sake, Jaylon Smith of the Dallas Cowboys just became the fourth highest paid inside linebacker (based on APY) in the NFL after starting just 22 games since being drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft (at No. 34 he went 22 picks ahead of Whitehair). As I mentioned at the top of the article, Cody Whitehair has missed only 25 snaps in his three year career out of a possible 3,073… Jaylon Smith has missed 26 starts out of a possible 48. The inside linebacker and interior offensive line market have nothing to do with each other, but consistency brings huge value, particularly to a position that relies on the unit to develop chemistry. 

Whitehair becoming the fourth highest paid left guard/center in terms of APY would mean his APY falls around $11 million. This estimate of $11 million APY was essentially where my Whitehair projection began, but the more I dove into the (scarce) resources available to determine Whitehair’s market, the more that number moved upward. 

All of the Bears’ moves to clear cap space prior to the 2019 free agency period and most recently with Charles Leno Jr. were not for naught, as another draft pick will be rewarded before the 2019 season kicks off. This hypothetical move will take up roughly $3.4 million in 2019 salary cap space, lowering the Bears’ number to around $18 million (per the NFLPA Public Salary Cap report dated 8/21/2019)

Projecting an Extension for Chicago Bears DT Eddie Goldman

When I began writing this article, the Khalil Mack rumors appeared to be nothing more than a pipe dream. No one really believed the Raiders would trade one of the best defensive players in the NFL, but here we are. Without getting into the details of the trade and Mack’s monster contract (which I will do soon), I want to look at a guy who will benefit greatly from Mack’s presence on the defense. DT Eddie Goldman’s ability to take on offensive linemen is even more crucial now with an elite edge rusher on the roster.

Bears GM Ryan Pace has been known to extend his guys before entering the final season of their contract, and communication between Eddie Goldman’s camp and the Bears has reportedly been productive. One thing immediately stuck out when looking for comparable players for Chicago Bears DT Eddie Goldman; he is still only 24 years old and doesn’t turn 25 until after the 2018 regular season. A second-round draft pick out of Florida State in 2015, Goldman took a major leap this past season after injuries limited him to just six games in 2016. He appeared in 15 games and contributed on 57.5% of the Bears defensive plays, battling opposing interior offensive lines alongside Akiem Hicks. Hicks was rewarded for his outstanding play with a four-year, $48 million extension on September 9, 2017. One year later, is Eddie about to cash in too?

Goldman’s role is mainly as a run stuffing nose tackle, but in his rookie season he had 5 sacks, showing he’s certainly capable of getting after the quarterback. A nagging ankle injury derailed much of his sophomore campaign, but he never needed surgery and was able to get proper rest once the Bears were no longer in contention. Goldman showed just the type of dynamic player he can be in 2017, and with presumably more growth ahead for the 24-year-old, the Bears would be smart to lock him up long term.

According to Pro Football Reference, Goldman had 27 solo tackles and 17 assists in 2017, both career highs by double digits. While his sacks dipped to just 1.5 in 2017, Goldman made his presence felt in the backfield with 3 more tackles for loss. Basic statistics are not always the best way to measure a position such as nose tackle, as they can be hard to come by.

The Quant Edge is a goldmine of advanced data, including an “Injury Impact Tool” that shows the effect on a team that comes from an individual player being on the field or off it (I highly recommend checking out the site, it is a great new resource for NFL fans). The table below shows Bears opponents’ average yards per carry during Eddie Goldman’s “In Splits” and “Out of Splits.”

In 2016 when Goldman missed ten games with an ankle injury, opponents’ yards per carry rose over a yard from 3.59 to 4.63 yards per carry. This trend continued in 2017 when Goldman played over half of the defensive snaps. Other immeasurable data, such as how Goldman’s presence on the field frees up pass rushers like Akiem Hicks, paints a more complete picture of Eddie’s contribution to the Chicago Bears. Goldman now commands the respect of opposing offensive lines, and if he pulls double teams this season then Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and brand-new Bear Khalil Mack will be getting after the quarterback quite often. Additionally, Goldman’s relationship with Bears DC Vic Fangio is very strong, as he had many kind words to share with the media when Fangio chose to stay in Chicago this offseason.

Goldman’s importance in Chicago is clear; determining his market requires a look around the league, and it is a bit foggy. With Goldman being a 2015 draft pick he still has a year left on his deal, so there are no comparable players from his draft class that have received new contracts (Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton were the only DTs drafted ahead of him). The next issue with finding comps is that 3-4 DTs and 4-3 DTs are technically different positions. However, the NFL considers all DTs the same when it comes to determining franchise tag amounts, so I am going to include 4-3 DTs. The players I have used to compare with Eddie Goldman, for varying reasons, are Beau Allen, Star Lotulelei and Timmy Jernigan.

The below table is the average playtime percentages and cumulative stats for the two years preceding when these players signed their current contracts:

Beau Allen is a 26-year-old, 4-3 DT for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Allen was a seventh-round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2014 NFL Draft out of Wisconsin. Allen was given a three-year, $15 million contract by the Bucs on March 15, 2018. The Eagles defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, so Allen electing to sign as a free agent with the Bucs was a different situation than Eddie Goldman’s. Nevertheless, they have both worked to maximize their limited opportunities, Goldman because of injury and Allen because of a steep depth chart. Allen is the biggest special teams contributor of the group, but has the fewest sacks per game by a good margin. It is fair to wonder what the impact was on Beau Allen playing with one of the best DTs in the league in Fletcher Cox, although Jernigan was obviously in the same position. Allen’s deal will serve as our floor.

Star Lotulelei at 28 years old is quite a bit older than Goldman which complicates the comparison, but he just signed his second NFL contract for five years, $50 million on March 15, 2018 with the Buffalo Bills. Lotulelei was playing under his fifth-year option in 2017 in Carolina, as he was the Panthers’ first round draft pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Lotulelei is on the field a ton both on defense and in special teams and plays a more similar role to Eddie Goldman than the other two comps. Here are Lotulelei’s In-Splits and Out-of-Splits:

Lotulelei clogged up the middle against the run and created space for Carolina’s great edge rushers on the outside. He certainly had proven more in his career before signing his latest contract, but Eddie Goldman will likely be signing a third contract by the time he turns 28. Given Goldman’s youth and potential, I think Lotulelei’s $10 million APY could be a benchmark used in negotiations by Goldman’s representation.

Finally, Timmy Jernigan will serve as our ceiling. Jernigan is a 25-year-old, 4-3 DT for the Philadelphia Eagles. He was drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Florida State (sound familiar?) by the Baltimore Ravens and was traded to Philadelphia going into 2017. About two months into the 2017 season, on November 10, Jernigan was given a four-year, $48 million contract extension. Jernigan’s 10 sacks and 13 tackles for loss in the two seasons prior to his current contract show how he can get into the backfield and disrupt an offense. While the Eagles obviously regret very little about their 2017 season, they might regret giving Jernigan an early extension. Jernigan underwent back surgery for a herniated disc this offseason and is on the Eagles’ Non-Football Injury list heading into 2018, meaning he will miss at least the first six games of the season. This is essentially the risk you take with an early extension. It enables teams to negotiate a more team-friendly contract but opens them up to paying a player earlier than necessary who ends up injured. This may be on the minds of Ryan Pace and the Bears front office.

Following the Bears’ trade for Khalil Mack and his subsequent massive extension, the Bears have $6,255,556 in cap space according to OverTheCap.com. Goldman’s 2018 Cap number is currently $1,809,282. Taking a look at Jernigan’s contract, I predict the Bears will try to structure Goldman’s the same way for 2018:

Timmy Jernigan’s Extension Year

The base salary from Jernigan’s final year of his rookie deal was not changed in the extension, so the $2 million proration of his $10 million signing bonus (additional $376,891 is remainder of original signing bonus) was the only additional money added to his 2017 Cap Number. The Bears will attempt to mirror this in Goldman’s extension.

At 24, Eddie Goldman will have a great opportunity for “another bite at the apple.” We saw above that Star Lotulelei just signed a five-year, $50 million deal at 28. For this reason, I think four new years on an extension will be the maximum Goldman’s camp is looking for. Lastly, throughout this offseason, far before Khalil Mack, Ryan Pace has shown he is willing to pay a premium for top end talent that he believes in. Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and Allen Robinson all came with several question marks. Limited roles, injuries, etc. Eddie Goldman has his own injury history, but he also has a huge leg up on all of those guys; Goldman was Ryan Pace’s second ever draft pick as General Manager. Oh, and the first? Kevin White, who is effectively still making his Bears debut this Sunday, playing in his sixth NFL game. This deal is a win-win for all parties.

Look for a Goldman extension in the four year/$44 million range, with an $8 million signing bonus and $20 million fully guaranteed at signing (so Bears will have $4,255,556 in 2018 Cap Space). Ryan Pace likes to guarantee base salary, so approximately $7-8 million total could be guaranteed for Goldman’s 2019 and 2020 seasons. Lastly, Pace also employs March roster bonuses; the remaining $4-5 million guaranteed at signing could be in 2019 and 2020 roster bonuses. 

Here is Akiem Hicks’ contract extension from last season for reference to Pace’s style:

2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan

This week’s contract estimate is for our first 4-3 defensive tackle, Bennie Logan.  In 2013 the Philadelphia Eagles snapped up Logan in the 3rd round of the draft and he contributed immediately, logging 40% of the defensive snaps during his rookie season, playing in all 16 games.

Though Logan has been a mainstay on the Philly front four in each of his professional seasons, I feel he may have a hard time convincing his current employer to offer him the second contract he is probably expecting.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Bennie Logan »

2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams

Last week, we established a market for upcoming free agent Denver nose tackle Sylvester Williams despite some difficulty finding appropriate players to use as comparables for the 4th year player because there just aren’t a lot of 2nd contract interior linemen in the league with similar age/stats/production.

Today, we take a look at another 3-4 NT named Williams, this time Brandon of the Baltimore Ravens.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Brandon Williams »

2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams

As the NFL juggernaut steams toward the most exciting part of the season, General Managers are spending time formulating various virtual team roster models that stretch out as many as three years into the future, beginning with the 2017 league year. One of the important components of a roster model involves decisions revolving around unrestricted free agents.

We have followed the weekly play of interior defensive linemen that signed new contracts in 2016. Keeping with the NT/DT theme, I want to peer into the contract future of the top interior linemen that are set to become UFA’s after the 2016 season ends.

The seven gentlemen we will evaluate are a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 defense players: Nick Fairley, Johnathan Hankins, Bennie Logan, Dontari Poe, Kawann Short, Brandon Williams and Sylvester Williams.

Today’s featured subject is Denver Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams.

Continue reading 2017 Contract Estimates: Sylvester Williams »

Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts

Given the recent comments made by Deadspin and Pro Football Talk as to the inadequacy of the current convention for reporting and discussing NFL contracts, I thought it would make sense to post the entirety of the research paper that Nick and I submitted to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  The paper can be downloaded as a PDF via the link below:

Expected Contract Value – A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts (Johnston & Barton)

Continue reading Expected Contract Value: A Holistic Approach to Valuing NFL Contracts »

Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Defense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Defensive Lineman:

Ndamukong Suh
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$15,000100.0%$15,000$26,485,000
2016$15,00099.0%$14,850$23,485,000
2017$15,00094.8%$14,220$9,985,000
2018$17,000,00050.5%$8,585,000
2019$19,000,00034.0%$6,460,000
2020$18,360,00016.6%$3,047,760
Subtotal$18,136,830$59,955,000
Total$78,091,830
Jared Odrick
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$9,000,000
201696.6%$8,000,000
2017$8,500,00068.8%$5,848,000
2018$8,500,00045.7%$3,884,500
2019$8,500,00024.3%$2,065,500
Subtotal$11,798,000$17,000,000
Total$28,798,000
Dan Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.6%$149,400$7,850,000
2016$150,00093.5%$140,250$7,350,000
2017$4,500,00056.5%$2,542,500
2018$5,000,00028.1%$1,405,000
Subtotal$4,237,150$15,200,000
Total$19,437,150
Stephen Paea
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.1%$148,650$7,850,000
2016$3,450,00085.9%$2,963,550
2017$4,550,00055.5%$2,525,250
2018$5,000,00033.1%$1,655,000
Subtotal$7,292,450$7,850,000
Total$15,142,450
Kendall Langford
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,500,00092.8%$2,320,000$2,500,000
2016$4,000,00057.1%$2,284,000
2017$4,000,00032.7%$1,308,000
2018$4,200,00020.9%$877,800
Subtotal$6,789,800$2,500,000
Total$9,289,800
Corey Peters
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$200,00098.2%$196,400$4,000,000
2016$1,950,00073.5%$1,433,250
2017$2,850,00037.1%$1,057,350
Subtotal$2,687,000$4,000,000
Total$6,687,000
Tyson Alualu
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201595.2%$3,000,000
2016$1,750,00051.0%$892,500$1,250,000
Subtotal$892,500$4,250,000
Total$5,142,500
Tom Johnson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$50,00094.1%$47,050$2,250,000
2016$2,350,00044.4%$1,043,400
2017$2,350,00016.0%$376,000
Subtotal$1,466,450$2,250,000
Total$3,716,450
Darnell Dockett
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$2,000,00064.9%$1,298,000$2,000,000
2016$3,500,00010.9%$381,500
Subtotal$1,679,500$2,000,000
Total$3,679,500
Cory Redding
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00069.3%$690,000$2,000,000
2016$3,000,00011.9%$357,000
Subtotal$1,047,000$2,000,000
Total$3,047,500

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$150,00099.7%$149,550$11,625,000
2016$4,675,00097.0%$4,534,750$6,000,000
2017$7,550,00076.6%$5,783,300
2018$7,500,00048.3%$3,622,500
2019$7,500,00030.1%$2,257,500
Subtotal$16,347,600$17,625,000
Total$33,972,600
Pernell McPhee
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$175,00099.0%$173,250$8,500,000
2016$7,175,00080.7%$5,790,225
2017$7,325,00061.2%$4,482,900
2018$7,575,00039.7%$3,007,275
2019$8,000,00029.6%$2,368,000
Subtotal$15,821,650$8,500,000
Total$24,321,650
Brandon Graham
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.6%$9,000,000
201696.0%$4,000,000
2017$6,500,00047.8%$3,107,000
2018$6,500,00031.2%$2,028,000
Subtotal$5,135,000$13,000,000
Total$18,135,000
Brian Orakpo
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00098.0%$490,000$8,000,000
2016$7,000,00066.5%$4,655,000
2017$7,750,00035.7%$2,766,750
2018$7,750,00021.4%$1,658,500
Subtotal$9,570,250$8,000,000
Total$17,570,250
Brooks Reed
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$6,900,000
2016$2,500,00092.4%$2,310,000
2017$4,100,00067.7%$2,775,700
2018$4,500,00039.6%$1,782,000
2019$4,500,00026.5%$1,192,500
Subtotal$8,060,200$6,900,000
Total$14,960,200
Bruce Carter
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.4%$4,250,000
2016$4,250,00080.2%$3,408,500
2017$4,250,00056.5%$2,401,250
2018$4,250,00029.4%$1,249,500
Subtotal$7,059,250$4,250,000
Total$11,309,250
Trent Cole
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201588.3%$7,750,000
2016$6,250,00018.9%$1,181,250
Subtotal$1,181,250$7,750,000
Total$8,931,250
Jabaal Sheard
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00096.6%$966,000$5,000,000
2016$5,000,00054.0%$2,700,000
Subtotal$3,666,000$5,000,000
Total$8,666,000
Arthur Moats
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$850,00096.6%$821,100$1,900,000
2016$2,500,00065.4%$1,635,000
2017$2,250,00040.5%$911,250
Subtotal$3,367,350$1,900,000
Total$5,267,350

Linebackers:

David Harris
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201598.8%$7,500,000
201679.6%$7,500,000
2017$6,500,00017.3%$1,124,500
Subtotal$1,124,500$15,000,000
Total$16,124,500
JT Thomas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00099.2%$24,800$3,975,000
2016$2,475,00076.9%$1,903,275$525,000
2017$3,000,00040.9%$1,227,000
Subtotal$3,155,075$4,500,000
Total$7,655,075
Justin Durant
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$3,250,00079.8%$2,593,500$1,250,000
2016$3,000,00051.4%$1,542,000
2017$3,300,00027.2%$897,600
Subtotal$5,033,100$1,250,000
Total$6,283,100
Malcolm Smith
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00097.1%$242,750$3,750,000
2016$3,000,00054.7%$1,641,000
Subtotal$1,883,750$3,750,000
Total$5,633,750
Josh Mauga
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00095.7%$957,000$2,250,000
2016$2,000,00068.0%$1,360,000
2017$3,000,00030.3%$909,000
Subtotal$3,226,000$2,250,000
Total$5,476,000
Jonathan Casillas
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$25,00098.2%$24,550$2,975,000
2016$2,500,00061.1%$1,527,500
2017$2,500,00033.6%$840,000
Subtotal$2,392,050$2,975,000
Total$5,367,050

Cornerbacks:

Darrelle Revis
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.7%$16,000,000
201695.9%$17,000,000
2017$9,000,00064.8%$5,832,000$6,000,000
2018$11,000,00032.2%$3,542,000
2019$11,000,00015.3%$1,683,000
Subtotal$11,057,000$39,000,000
Total$50,057,000
Byron Maxwell
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.8%$13,500,000
201697.8%$8,500,000
2017$10,500,00063.6%$6,678,000
2018$10,000,00042.6%$4,260,000
2019$9,750,00025.5%$2,486,250
2020$10,750,00019.6%$2,107,000
Subtotal$15,531,250$22,000,000
Total$37,531,250
Kareem Jackson
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$250,00099.8%$249,500$14,000,000
2016$250,00096.5%$241,250$6,000,000
2017$6,750,00058.9%$3,975,750
2018$6,750,00037.2%$2,511,000
Subtotal$6,977,500$20,000,000
Total$26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$10,250,000
201694.0%$7,750,000
2017$9,000,00038.4%$3,456,000
2018$9,400,00021.3%$2,002,200
Subtotal$5,458,200$18,000,000
Total$23,458,200
Chris Culliver
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$8,000,000
201695.9%$8,000,000
2017$8,000,00047.9%$3,832,000
2018$8,000,00031.2%$2,496,000
Subtotal$6,328,000$16,000,000
Total$22,328,000
Buster Skrine
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.9%$6,500,000
201696.6%$6,500,000
2017$6,000,00053.7%$3,222,000
2018$6,000,00037.5%$2,250,000
Subtotal$5,472,000$13,000,000
Total$18,472,000
Davon House
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.5%$6,500,000
2016$2,500,00093.0%$2,325,000$3,500,000
2017$6,000,00063.1%$3,786,000
2018$6,000,00035.4%$2,124,000
Subtotal$8,235,000$10,000,000
Total$18,235,000
Cary Williams
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201596.6%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00049.0%$2,450,000
2017$6,000,00021.7%$1,302,000
Subtotal$3,752,000$7,000,000
Total$10,752,000
Brandon Browner
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.3%$5,000,000
2016$2,250,00067.8%$1,525,500$2,750,000
2017$5,000,00018.3%$915,000
Subtotal$2,440,500$7,750,000
Total$10,190,500
Brice McCain
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00091.3%$913,000$2,000,000
2016$2,500,00041.2%$1,030,000
Subtotal$1,943,000$2,000,000
Total$3,943,000

Safeties:

Devin McCourty
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$500,00099.9%$499,500$17,500,000
2016$500,00098.1%$490,500$4,500,000
2017$7,000,00074.3%$5,201,000
2018$8,000,00042.5%$3,400,000
2019$9,500,00022.5%$2,137,500
Subtotal$11,728,500$22,000,000
Total$33,728,500
Da’Norris Searcy
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201599.3%$7,000,000
2016$5,000,00083.6%$4,180,000
2017$5,625,00057.3%$3,223,125
2018$6,125,00036.6%$2,241,750
Subtotal$9,644,875$7,000,000
Total$16,644,875
Nate Allen
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00099.0%$99,000$6,900,000
2016$5,000,00078.3%$3,915,000
2017$6,000,00047.5%$2,850,000
2018$5,000,00034.4%$1,720,000
Subtotal$8,584,000$6,900,000
Total$15,484,000
Rahim Moore
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,000,00098.5%$985,000$4,000,000
2016$3,350,00079.3%$2,656,550
2017$3,650,00052.8%$1,927,200
Subtotal$5,568,750$4,000,000
Total$9,568,750
Antrel Rolle
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$100,00092.2%$92,200$4,900,000
2016$3,000,00042.8%$1,284,000
2017$3,250,00014.4%$468,000
Subtotal$1,844,200$4,900,000
Total$6,744,200
Sergio Brown
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
2015$1,500,00094.5%$1,417,500$1,000,000
2016$2,250,00069.9%$1,572,750
2017$2,250,00035.7%$803,250
Subtotal$3,793,500$1,000,000
Total$4,793,500

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.