I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.
Quarterbacks:
Josh McCown | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 89.2% | — | $5,250,000 |
2016 | $3,375,000 | 23.3% | $786,375 | $1,000,000 |
2017 | $4,375,000 | 5.8% | $253,750 | — |
Subtotal | $1,040,125 | $6,250,000 | ||
Total | $7,290,125 |
Mark Sanchez | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 97.3% | — | $4,500,000 |
2016 | $3,500,000 | 45.5% | $1,592,500 | $1,000,000 |
Subtotal | $1,592,500 | $5,500,000 | ||
Total | $7,092,500 |
Brian Hoyer | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $500,000 | 92.9% | $464,500 | $4,750,000 |
2016 | $5,250,000 | 29.4% | $1,543,500 | — |
Subtotal | $2,008,000 | $4,750,000 | ||
Total | $6,758,000 |
Ryan Mallett | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,750,000 | 92.0% | $1,610,000 | $1,750,000 |
2016 | $3,500,000 | 41.0% | $1,435,000 | — |
Subtotal | $3,045,000 | $1,750,000 | ||
Total | $4,795,000 |
Shaun Hill | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $50,000 | 76.1% | $38,050 | $3,200,000 |
2016 | $3,250,000 | 8.2% | $266,500 | — |
Subtotal | $304,550 | $3,200,000 | ||
Total | $3,504,550 |
Blaine Gabbert | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,500,000 | 88.5% | $1,327,500 | $500,000 |
2016 | $2,000,000 | 55.6% | $1,112,000 | — |
Subtotal | $2,439,500 | $500,000 | ||
Total | $2,939,500 |
Running Backs:
DeMarco Murray | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $9,000,000 |
2016 | — | 98.2% | — | $7,000,000 |
2017 | $6,000,000 | 74.7% | $4,482,000 | $2,000,000 |
2018 | $8,000,000 | 36.0% | $2,880,000 | — |
2019 | $8,000,000 | 25.7% | $2,056,000 | — |
Subtotal | $9,418,000 | $18,000,000 | ||
Total | $27,418,000 |
Mark Ingram | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $100,000 | 99.9% | $99,900 | $4,600,000 |
2016 | $1,600,000 | 95.3% | $1,524,800 | $1,500,000 |
2017 | $3,600,000 | 66.2% | $2,383,200 | — |
2018 | $4,600,000 | 40.2% | $1,849,200 | — |
Subtotal | $5,857,100 | $6,100,000 | ||
Total | $11,957,100 |
Shane Vereen | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $100,000 | 98.7% | $98,700 | $4,750,000 |
2016 | $3,750,000 | 74.1% | $2,778,750 | — |
2017 | $3,750,000 | 46.8% | $1,755,000 | — |
Subtotal | $4,632,450 | $4,750,000 | ||
Total | $9,382,450 |
Frank Gore | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,000,000 | 96.4% | $964,000 | $3,500,000 |
2016 | $1,000,000 | 67.2% | $672,000 | $3,000,000 |
2017 | $3,500,000 | 14.3% | $500,500 | — |
Subtotal | $2,136,500 | $6,500,000 | ||
Total | $8,636,500 |
Ryan Matthews | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.4% | — | $4,000,000 |
2016 | $2,000,000 | 82.2% | $1,644,000 | $1,000,000 |
2017 | $4,000,000 | 35.9% | $1,436,000 | — |
Subtotal | $3,080,000 | $5,000,000 | ||
Total | $8,080,000 |
Jerome Felton | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $100,000 | 98.8% | $98,800 | $3,600,000 |
2016 | $1,650,000 | 79.3% | $1,308,450 | — |
2017 | $1,850,000 | 46.6% | $862,100 | — |
2018 | $2,000,000 | 24.8% | $496,000 | — |
Subtotal | $2,765,350 | $3,600,000 | ||
Total | $6,365,350 |
Justin Forsett | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 97.8% | — | $3,000,000 |
2016 | $3,000,000 | 52.3% | $1,569,000 | — |
2017 | $3,000,000 | 26.6% | $798,000 | — |
Subtotal | $2,367,000 | $3,000,000 | ||
Total | $5,367,000 |
Wide Receivers:
Jeremy Maclin | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $250,000 | 100.0% | $250,000 | $12,750,000 |
2016 | $250,000 | 97.8% | $244,500 | $9,750,000 |
2017 | $10,000,000 | 68.3% | $6,830,000 | — |
2018 | $11,000,000 | 40.0% | $4,400,000 | — |
2019 | $11,000,000 | 26.5% | $2,915,000 | — |
Subtotal | $14,639,500 | $22,500,000 | ||
Total | $37,139,500 |
Randall Cobb | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $2,100,000 | 99.6% | $2,091,600 | $13,000,000 |
2016 | $5,900,000 | 93.8% | $5,534,200 | — |
2017 | $9,500,000 | 68.6% | $6,517,000 | — |
2018 | $9,500,000 | 46.1% | $4,379,500 | — |
Subtotal | $18,522,300 | $13,000,000 | ||
Total | $31,522,300 |
Torrey Smith | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,250,000 | 99.5% | $1,243,750 | $8,750,000 |
2016 | $6,000,000 | 91.4% | $5,484,000 | — |
2017 | $8,000,000 | 70.1% | $5,608,000 | — |
2018 | $8,000,000 | 45.5% | $3,640,000 | — |
2019 | $8,000,000 | 31.7% | $2,536,000 | — |
Subtotal | $18,511,750 | $8,750,000 | ||
Total | $27,261,750 |
Dwayne Harris | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $25,000 | 99.9% | $24,975 | $4,975,000 |
2016 | $875,000 | 96.7% | $846,125 | $2,125,000 |
2017 | $3,000,000 | 70.5% | $2,115,000 | — |
2018 | $3,250,000 | 42.4% | $1,378,000 | — |
2019 | $3,250,000 | 28.1% | $913,250 | — |
Subtotal | $5,277,350 | $7,100,000 | ||
Total | $12,377,350 |
Andre Johnson | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 92.9% | — | $7,500,000 |
2016 | $2,500,000 | 37.6% | $940,000 | $2,500,000 |
2017 | $6,000,000 | 9.2% | $552,000 | — |
Subtotal | $1,492,000 | $10,000,000 | ||
Total | $11,492,000 |
Eddie Royal | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.1% | — | $5,500,000 |
2016 | — | 86.9% | — | $4,500,000 |
2017 | $5,000,000 | 24.3% | $1,215,000 | — |
Subtotal | $1,215,000 | $10,000,000 | ||
Total | $11,215,000 |
Brian Hartline | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 95.8% | — | $3,000,000 |
2016 | $3,000,000 | 37.9% | — | — |
Subtotal | $1,137,000 | $3,000,000 | ||
Total | $4,137,000 |
Ted Ginn | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,000,000 | 84.5% | $845,000 | $1,700,000 |
2016 | $1,500,000 | 34.6% | $519,000 | — |
Subtotal | $1,364,000 | $1,700,000 | ||
Total | $3,064,000 |
Jacoby Jones | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $900,000 | 82.0% | $738,000 | $1,600,000 |
2016 | $3,000,000 | 20.7% | $621,000 | — |
Subtotal | $1,359,000 | $1,600,000 | ||
Total | $2,959,000 |
Tight Ends:
Julius Thomas | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $100,000 | 99.6% | $99,600 | $15,000,000 |
2016 | $100,000 | 97.0% | $97,000 | $6,000,000 |
2017 | $7,100,000 | 65.6% | $4,657,600 | — |
2018 | $8,600,000 | 37.9% | $3,259,400 | — |
2019 | $9,100,000 | 26.0% | $2,366,000 | — |
Subtotal | $10,479,600 | $21,000,000 | ||
Total | $31,479,600 |
Lance Kendricks | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 98.9% | — | $5,500,000 |
2016 | $3,250,000 | 86.5% | $2,811,250 | $1,250,000 |
2017 | $4,250,000 | 58.3% | $2,477,750 | — |
2018 | $4,250,000 | 30.9% | $1,313,250 | — |
Subtotal | $6,602,250 | $6,750,000 | ||
Total | $13,352,250 |
Owen Daniels | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,750,000 | 86.0% | $1,505,000 | $3,000,000 |
2016 | $3,500,000 | 38.0% | $1,330,000 | — |
2017 | $4,000,000 | 14.7% | $588,000 | — |
Subtotal | $3,423,000 | $3,000,000 | ||
Total | $6,423,000 |
Lee Smith | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $250,000 | 97.6% | $244,000 | $3,100,000 |
2016 | $2,750,000 | 71.5% | $1,966,250 | — |
2017 | $3,250,000 | 34.1% | $1,108,250 | — |
Subtotal | $3,318,500 | $3,100,000 | ||
Total | $6,418,500 |
Virgil Green | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 98.3% | — | $3,200,000 |
2016 | $2,400,000 | 66.2% | $1,588,800 | — |
2017 | $2,800,000 | 37.2% | $1,041,600 | — |
Subtotal | $2,630,400 | $3,200,000 | ||
Total | $5,830,500 |
Ed Dickson | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $850,000 | 95.9% | $815,150 | $2,000,000 |
2016 | $1,900,000 | 65.7% | $1,248,300 | — |
2017 | $2,050,000 | 34.7% | $711,350 | — |
Subtotal | $2,774,800 | $2,000,000 | ||
Total | $4,774,800 |
Niles Paul | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $250,000 | 98.3% | $245,750 | $2,250,000 |
2016 | $1,500,000 | 73.7% | $1,105,500 | — |
2017 | $2,000,000 | 43.3% | $866,000 | — |
Subtotal | $2,217,250 | $2,250,000 | ||
Total | $4,467,250 |
Offensive Tackles:
Bryan Bulaga | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $2,000,000 | 99.3% | $1,986,000 | $8,000,000 |
2016 | $4,000,000 | 94.4% | $3,776,000 | — |
2017 | $6,250,000 | 74.3% | $4,643,750 | — |
2018 | $6,750,000 | 47.1% | $3,179,250 | — |
2019 | $6,750,000 | 32.0% | $2,160,000 | — |
Subtotal | $15,745,000 | $8,000,000 | ||
Total | $23,745,000 |
Jeremy Parnell | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.5% | — | $8,000,000 |
2016 | — | 94.4% | — | $6,500,000 |
2017 | $6,500,000 | 56.5% | $3,672,500 | — |
2018 | $5,000,000 | 38.1% | $1,905,000 | — |
2019 | $6,000,000 | 16.9% | $1,014,000 | — |
Subtotal | $6,591,500 | $14,500,000 | ||
Total | $21,091,500 |
Derek Newton | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $7,500,000 |
2016 | $2,250,000 | 93.4% | $2,101,500 | $2,500,000 |
2017 | $4,750,000 | 67.9% | $3,225,250 | — |
2018 | $4,750,000 | 44.8% | $2,128,000 | — |
2019 | $4,750,000 | 32.6% | $1,548,500 | — |
Subtotal | $9,003,250 | $10,000,000 | ||
Total | $19,003,250 |
King Dunlap | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $500,000 | 98.5% | $492,500 | $8,500,000 |
2016 | $5,000,000 | 77.5% | $3,875,000 | — |
2017 | $6,750,000 | 39.6% | $2,673,000 | — |
2018 | $7,250,000 | 21.3% | $1,544,250 | — |
Subtotal | $8,584,750 | $8,500,000 | ||
Total | $17,084,750 |
Doug Free | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 96.9% | — | $6,000,000 |
2016 | $4,000,000 | 48.4% | $1,936,000 | — |
2017 | $5,000,000 | 18.2% | $910,000 | — |
Subtotal | $2,846,000 | $6,000,000 | ||
Total | $8,846,000 |
Joe Reitz | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,750,000 | 88.9% | $1,555,750 | $1,500,000 |
2016 | $2,250,000 | 54.6% | $1,228,500 | — |
2017 | $2,500,000 | 20.9% | $522,500 | — |
Subtotal | $3,306,750 | $1,500,000 | ||
Total | $4,806,750 |
Michael Oher | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,250,000 | 89.0% | $1,112,500 | $2,500,000 |
2016 | $3,250,000 | 34.6% | $1,124,500 | — |
Subtotal | $2,237,000 | $2,500,000 | ||
Total | $4,737,000 |
Interior Lineman:
Rodney Hudson | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $400,000 | 98.8% | $395,200 | $12,600,000 |
2016 | $7,700,000 | 89.4% | $6,883,800 | — |
2017 | $6,850,000 | 77.9% | $5,336,150 | — |
2018 | $8,350,000 | 53.5% | $4,467,250 | — |
2019 | $8,600,000 | 30.0% | $2,580,000 | — |
Subtotal | $19,662,400 | $12,600,000 | ||
Total | $32,262,400 |
Orlando Franklin | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $10,000,000 |
2016 | — | 97.2% | — | $5,500,000 |
2017 | $6,000,000 | 62.9% | $3,774,000 | — |
2018 | $6,750,000 | 34.4% | $2,322,000 | — |
2019 | $7,250,000 | 21.3% | $1,544,250 | — |
Subtotal | $7,640,250 | $15,500,000 | ||
Total | $23,140,250 |
Clint Boling | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $2,100,000 | 98.2% | $2,062,200 | $5,000,000 |
2016 | $4,250,000 | 84.9% | $3,608,250 | — |
2017 | $4,450,000 | 66.2% | $2,945,900 | — |
2018 | $4,950,000 | 41.9% | $2,074,050 | — |
2019 | $5,250,000 | 30.4% | $1,596,000 | — |
Subtotal | $12,286,400 | $5,000,000 | ||
Total | $17,286,400 |
James Carpenter | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.1% | — | $5,000,000 |
2016 | $4,700,000 | 77.8% | $3,656,600 | — |
2017 | $4,700,000 | 53.5% | $2,514,500 | — |
2018 | $4,700,000 | 37.1% | $1,743,700 | — |
Subtotal | $7,914,800 | $5,000,000 | ||
Total | $12,914,800 |
Specialists:
Brett Kern | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | — | 99.5% | — | $4,000,000 |
2016 | $1,200,000 | 91.2% | $1,094,400 | $1,000,000 |
2017 | $2,800,000 | 51.4% | $1,439,200 | — |
2018 | $3,000,000 | 26.7% | $801,000 | — |
2019 | $3,000,000 | 17.4% | $522,000 | — |
Subtotal | $3,856,600 | $5,000,000 | ||
Total | $8,856,600 |
Matt Prater | ||||
Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
2015 | $1,250,000 | 79.5% | $993,750 | $750,000 |
2016 | $2,500,000 | 35.2% | $880,000 | — |
2017 | $3,700,000 | 12.7% | $469,900 | — |
Subtotal | $2,343,650 | $750,000 | ||
Total | $3,093,650 |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.