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Looking at the Dallas Cowboys’ Alarming Cap Mess

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Proclaiming that the Dallas Cowboys have salary cap issues is no revelation.  But while Jerry Jones’ problems with the cap have been well documented, the Cowboys’ cap mess is more alarming than people realize.

Actions carry consequences in all marks of life.  Although shortsighted front office-men sometimes operate without regard to this principle, the NFL salary cap is not an exception to this rule.

The 2014 league year begins on Tuesday March 11 at 4pm ET.  At this point, all clubs must be under the 2014 salary cap—a figure not yet officially announced but projected to be around $126,300,000.

There are several ways that a team can manipulate their salary cap in order to clear up space in the short term.  But each of these manipulation practices carry big-picture costs. The Cowboys have consistently used these different techniques, which is why their current situation is so alarming.

Jason’s up-to-date estimates have Dallas at $24,614,943 over the 2014 projected cap. And because of the Cowboys’ past moves, the only way that they’ll get under this figure in time for the 2014 league year is by exposing themselves to even greater cap problems in the future.

The Saints and Lions cut loose some of their current players in order to clear up cap space this past week. On Wednesday the Saints saved $16.905 million in 2014 cap space by parting ways with veterans Will Smith, Jabari Greer and S Roman.  The next day the Lions released Nate Burleson & Louis Delmas, saving $11.08 million in the process.

Name

2014 Cap Number

Dead Money

Cap Savings

Tony Romo

$21,773,000

$41,681,000

($19,908,000)

DeMarcus Ware

$16,003,750

$8,571,500

$7,432,250

Brandon Carr

$12,217,000

$16,868,000

($4,651,000)

Jason Witten

$8,412,000

$8,648,000

($236,000)

Miles Austin

$8,249,400

$7,855,600

$393,800

Sean Lee

$7,500,000

$13,500,000

($6,000,000)

Orlando Scandrick

$6,601,250

$10,203,750

($3,602,500)

Doug Free

$6,520,000

$7,000,000

($480,000)

Morris Claiborne

$4,435,773

$9,610,842

($5,175,069)

Kyle Orton

$4,377,500

$3,382,500

$995,000

Mackenzy Bernadeau

$4,074,166

$2,648,334

$1,425,832

Tyron Smith

$3,976,031

$3,976,031

$0

Dez Bryant

$3,898,500

$1,868,500

$2,030,000

Barry Church

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$500,000

But Dallas can’t use this mechanism.  Here’s why:

Think of releasing a player and gaining cap space as an equation.

(Player X 2014 Cap Number)-(Dead Money Associated with Contract of Player X)= 2014 Cap Savings

If you look at every Cowboys player who has a legitimate 2014 cap hit (let’s say $2 million or greater, and I count 14 of these guys), 7 have dead money hits associated with their contract that exceeds their 2014 cap hit (meaning no cap benefit would be derived from cutting one of these guys); 3 others have dead money hits that are less than $500,000 below their 2014 cap hits.

The only player who would be worth cutting outright is DeMarcus Ware (he’d save them $7.4 million in cap space immediately). But of course Ware is Dallas’ best player and a perennial Pro-Bowler.

You can try playing GM with our Salary Cap Calculator and figuring this mess out on your own—it’s an arduous task.

Because of their cap situation, Dallas’ only choice is to continue doing what they have been doing—restructuring contracts.  And don’t get restructuring confused with renegotiating, where a player agrees to actually take a pay cut and earn less money. With a restructure a player’s base salary is converted into bonus money—this lowers a player’s current cap figure and recycles the money into future years.

Or stated otherwise, it lowers a player’s current cap figure and puts that franchise in a bind in future years.

Last offseason the Cowboys reworked the contracts of multiple players.  They added two voidable years to DeMarcus Ware’s contract (a very dangerous practice), and restructured the contracts of Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, Doug Free, Jay Ratliff, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeu and Ryan Cook.

They will have to do the same thing this offseason, except they’ll likely have to rework the deal of QB Tony Romo ($13.5 million 2014 base salary), meaning their future commitment to Romo will be even greater than it already is.

One mechanism that Dallas can use to help itself in the short-term is the June 1st cut, which is explained on our Salary Cap Calculator page and copied below:

“When a player is cut on or after June 1, only the current year’s prorated bonus and guaranteed base salaries (if they exist) count against the current cap year. All other such cap money is accelerated against next year’s cap.

Remember that although a team may use a June 1 designation to cut a player before June 1, the team cannot get the benefits of the designation until June 1. Before then, the team must carry all guarantees against the current cap year, like a normal cut.”

The Cowboys will likely use this June 1st method with WR Miles Austin, as this will save them $5,500,000 in cap space for the 2014 league year instead of the $393,800 that cutting him outright will save.  However, since the savings won’t actually benefit the Cowboys until June 1st (as explained above), this method won’t help Dallas get under the cap by the 2014 league year. What it will do is provide them with the necessary cap room that they’ll need to sign their 2014 rookie class.  But of course there will be consequences to this action—Dallas will have to deal with the money saved when the 2015 league year rolls around.

Ultimately it’s a vicious cycle—a cycle that was not helped by the steep penalties Commissioner Roger Goodell imposed on the Cowboys for failing to comply during the 2010 uncapped year (if you want to know why teams had to comply with any type of rules in an uncapped year, give Sean Gilbert’s “The $29 Million ‘Tip’” a read.)

America’s Team has won one playoff game since 1996. Based on their current cap situation, this lack of success may not end anytime soon.

 
Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com

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Ndamukong Suh Has A Tremendous Amount of Contract Leverage

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Jay Z proved his worth in the agency industry when he broke the bank for his client Robinson Cano a few months back. He’s now in a great position to do the same on the gridiron with his newest client:  Lions DT Ndamukong Suh. 

The Lions released Wide Receiver Nate Burleson and Safety Louis Delmas earlier today, gaining $11.08 million in cap space in the process. This was an essential move for the Lions. Not only were they over the projected 2014 cap before these releases, but they also intend to sign Suh—who will become a free agent after the 2014 season (his 2015 contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl)—to a long-term extension.

Jay Z and his newly founded Roc Nation Sports have inherited an excellent negotiating position.  Because Suh restructured his contract each of the past two offseasons, his current 2014 cap hit is $22,412,500. But more importantly, because his 2015 contract automatically voids, the Lions will be left with a $9,737,500 dead money hit if Suh decides to leave via 2015 free agency.

So what does this all mean? It means that whoever is negotiating this contract on Suh’s behalf (Darren Heitner of Forbes and Sports Agent Blog noted yesterday that because Jay Z isn’t currently certified as an NFLPA Contract Advisor, either agent Kimberly Ann Miale or reps from CAA will be handling the on-field negotiations) will have a tremendous amount of leverage in the upcoming negotiations.

Suh is already the NFLs highest paid DT from his rookie deal, so the amount of money that his reps will attempt to secure is anybody’s guess. Factor in his monstrous 2014 cap hit and the inevitable dead money that the Lions will have to eat if they let him walk, and this all adds up to Suh setting a new salary precedent for DTs.

As  I’ve mentioned before, Lions GM Martin Mayhew is on thin ice in Detroit. He’ll likely be out as GM if Detroit doesn’t make the playoffs in 2014, so he probably isn’t thinking about the long-term implications of his moves and the cap mess that they might leave behind.

Suh just turned 27 years old last month, and should have multiple years left in his prime. With all the leverage his camp has, be prepared to see Suh receive a massive annual salary (greater than his current $12.94 million per year), as well as a colossal signing bonus (my guess is that it will be around $25 million).

Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com

Is the State of the Browns Really So Bad?

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The perpetually sinking ship that is the Cleveland Browns has hit a new low this offseason. On Monday, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam fired CEO Joe Banner and GM Lombardi, just about a month after Head Coach Rob Chudzinski was relieved of his duties. Lombardi was hired on January 18, 2013, so at least Haslam gave him a full year to turn around the franchise. Chudzinski didn’t even make it 365 days.

The Browns 4-12 record in 2013 marked the sixth straight year that they’ve won 5 games or less, and the franchise has just two playoff appearances since 1989.

Yet things really aren’t so bad; if they can secure a QB this offseason (and they’ll likely target one in the draft), I truly believe they’ll be force to be reckoned with.

The defense is loaded with talent. Joe Haden (2nd team All-Pro) is one of the best CBs in football. Impending UFA Safety TJ Ward was also named 2nd team All-Pro. They signed former Ravens LB Paul Kruger last offseason, have a great young playmaker in LB Jabaal Sheard, and drafted Barkevious Mingo with the 6th overall pick last year (who struggled as a rookie but is undeniably talented).

Their offensive line boasts two studs—LT Joe Thomas was named 1st team All Pro for the fifth straight year while impending UFA Center Alex Mack received 2nd team All-Pro honors. They have a legitimate #1 WR in Josh Gordon, who was named 1st team All Pro (along with Calvin Johnson) and led the league in receiving yards despite the quarterback-carousel that took place. They also have talented TE Jordan Cameron, who was a pleasant 2013 surprise.

Of course the Browns have holes. Aside from their glaring QB issue, they have no talent at RB and lack a second WR. So what will they do in free agency?

On the surface the Browns have plenty of cap room (over $45 million according to Jason’s Feb 10th update.) However, this number is somewhat misleading as they own the task of resigning their current talent.

They are working on signing Haden to a long-term extension. Haden’s current (rookie) deal carries a $8.9 million cap hit for 2014—not chump change by any means. So while an extension might not increase his 2014 cap hit by all that much (depending on the structure of the deal, of course), the Browns’ front office must still take this is into account when making any free agency decisions.

Cleveland will almost certainly use the franchise tag later this month— either on Ward (the safety position has a projected $8 million cap hit for 2014) or Mack (the projected cap hit for a franchised OL would be greater than $11 million for 2014). Ward and Mack are both young and talented, so the Browns will likely try and bring both guys back regardless of which one is slapped with the franchise tag.

The Browns also have 2 first round selections (4th overall as well as Indianapolis’ 26th overall pick from the Trent Richardson trade).  The implications here are that their Year One Rookie Pool will be high (last year  the 4th and 26th picks alone accounted for over $5 million in cap space during their rookie seasons).

Haslam—who was active in free agency last year and is also paying the 2014 salaries of both Chudzinski and Lombardi—has proved he isn’t afraid to spend money. But based on the Browns’ current state, the $45 million in cap space could actually be a lot less. Here’s a lock at some possible numbers:

-If Haden signs an extension, it won’t be cheap; his 2014 cap hit could conceivably increase by $5 million or more.

-I estimate that retaining both Ward and Mack would cost $15 million in 2014 cap space.

-Cleveland’s Year One Rookie Pool will take up greater than $7 million in cap space.

So in reality, the $45 million in cap space they currently have could very likely be much less if they want to keep their current talent. Also, Josh Gordon is a FA after the 2015 season—the Browns will want to factor him into their future plans.

Last week I mentioned the possibility of Cleveland signing Eric Decker.  While I still believe it’s a possibility, new GM Ray Farmer will have to think long and hard giving any 2014 free agents top dollar.

But of course, all of the talent mentioned above will mean nothing if Cleveland doesn’t get its hands on a serviceable QB.

Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com
 
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Looking at the Salary Cap Implications of Michael Sam’s Announcement

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On Sunday night we learned that Michael Sam is gay. In a perfect world, this would not affect his draft stock. But unfortunately we don’t live in a perfect world.

The job of NFL front-office-men is to win football games; assembling a locker room that meshes well together is an important component of this.  If guys in the locker room have an issue with a gay player, the locker room is more likely to be divided and the team is less likely to succeed.

And it would be naïve to think that no NFL player would take issue with a gay player in the locker room.  In the past year alone we saw Dolphins WR Mike Wallace post an incredibly insensitive, uneducated tweet in regards to NBA-er Jason Collins coming out of the closet; there was also 49ers CB Chris Culliver’s anti-gay remarks at Super Bowl XLVII media day, as well as Panthers WR Steve Smith adamantly insisting that he wasn’t in Kerry Rhodes’ circle this past September when broached on the possibility of the free agent Rhodes—who is rumored to be gay in NFL circles—signing with Carolina.

On top of the inevitable disapproval that Sam will face from some of his peers in the locker room, there is also the media circus that will follow him to whichever team drafts him.

So what will happen with Michael Sam? He was an All-American as well as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, so it would be shocking if he wasn’t drafted. Below I explain the economics that any interested team will take into account.

Michael Sam & the Salary Cap

The implementation of the “Total Rookie Allocation” and “Year One Rookie Allocation” pools in the 2011 CBA has greatly simplified the negotiating process associated with rookie contracts.  In essence, this new rookie wage scale pre-sets the contracts of all incoming rookies.

What’s important to note about all of this in Michael Sam’s situation is the differentiation in guaranteed money in accordance to where a player is drafted.

 

 Contract Details of First/Last Selection from Rounds 1-2 (2012-2013)

NAMEPICKLENGTHSINGNING BONUSTOTAL CONTRACT AMOUNTGUARANTEED MONEY
Eric Fischer (2013)1.1 (1st overall)4$14,518,544$22,190,498
$16,678,544
Matt Elam (2013)1.32 (32nd overall)4$3,301,456$6,767,002$5,439,229
John Cyprien (2013)2.1 (33rd overall)4$2,357,528$5,469,104$3,916,124
Christine Michael (2013)2.30 (62nd overall)4$834,132$3,374,432$1,007,132
Andrew Luck (2012)1.1 (1st overall)4$14,518,544$22,107,998$22,107,998
David Wilson (2012)1.32 (32nd overall)4$3,301,456$6,683,979$5,382,979
Brian Quick (2012)2.1 (33rd overall)4$2,357,000$5,386,599$3,822,373
Rueben Randle (2012) 2.31 (61st overall)4$834,132$3,291,930$1,397,132

1st & 2nd Round Selections: The guaranteed money given to both 1st and most 2nd round selections goes beyond just their signing bonuses.  Along with getting large signing bonuses, 1st and 2nd round draft picks get some or all of their total contract amount guaranteed as well.

 Contract Details of First/Last Selection from Rounds 3-7 (2012)

NAMEPICKLENGTHSINGNING BONUSTOTAL CONTRACT AMOUNTGUARANTEED MONEY
Travis Kelce (2013)3.1 (63rd overall)4

$703,304

$3,126,304

$703,304

Zaviar Gooden (2013)3.35 (97th overall)4

$506,016

$2,816,016

$506,016

Matt Barkley (2013)4.1 (98th overall)4

$497,028

$2,737,028

$497,028

Levine Toilolo (2013)4.36 (133rdoverall)4

$300,584

$2,460,584

$300,584

Sanders Commings (2013)5.1 (134th overall)4

$215,512

$2,400,512

$215,512

Ricky Wagner (2013)5.35 (168th overall)4

$144,560

$2,304,560

$144,560

Josh Evans (2013)6.1 (169th overall)4

$128,820

$2,288,820

$128,820

Vince Williams (2013)6.39 (206th overall)4

$78,680

 $2,238,680

$78,680

Mike Catapano (2013)7.1 (207th overall)4

$69,124

$2,254,124

$69,124

Justice Cunningham  (2013) 7.48 (254 overall)4

$45,896

2,205,896

$45,896

 

Even before Michael Sam publicly announced that he was gay, many scouts questioned his ability. At 6’1 or 6’2 and 250-260 lbs, he is likely not big enough to play DE in the NFL and may lack a true position. Though “expert draft projections” in February are often way off, early signs pointed to it being unlikely that Sam would have been a 1st or 2nd rounder even before his announcement. With all the extra-curricular stuff that this announcement carries with it, the scenario where Sam is taken in the 1st or 2nd round  now becomes nearly impossible.

3rd-7th Round Selections: However, when dealing with players drafted in rounds 3-7, only their signing bonuses are guaranteed in just about all cases. (Out of 34 3rd round picks in 2013, just one had more than his signing bonus guaranteed—Marcus Wheaton of PIT).

For example, if Brian Quick–the 1st pick of the 2nd round & 33rd overall selection in the 2012 draft–was cut by St. Louis before he had ever played a down, he would still have been guaranteed to make $3,822,373.  But if Justin Anderson—the 1st pick of the 7th round & 208th overall selection in the 2012 draft—was cut by Indianapolis before having ever played a down, all he would have been guaranteed to make was his $69,000 signing bonus.

And of course whenever there is guaranteed money in a contract, there is also dead money associated with it. So again using Brian Quick as an example, if the Rams had cut him before he ever played a down they would have absorbed a $3,821,690 dead money hit.  If they cut him after he played one season, the dead money hit would have been $2,842,991.

But with a guy drafted in rounds 3-7 (where there is no guaranteed money aside from the signing bonus), the dead money hit is simply the unearned amount of the player’s signing bonus at the time he was released.

Anything after round 2 is fair game. If a team values Sam and they think he’s a steal in round 3, they could take a chance on him with a relatively small financial risk tied to the pick. And if Sam shows well at the combine later this month, this scenario is certainly conceivable.

 
Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com

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Dissecting the Franchise Tag & Potential 2014 Candidates

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It’s been 21 years since the implementation of one of the most unique practices in sports: the franchise tag. Though the intricacies of the franchise tag have changed over time, one thing has remained constant: it adds an element of strategy to offseason negotiations in the NFL.

This past November in an article for CBS Sports, former agent Joel Corry provided an excellent explanation of the two types of franchise tags: exclusive and non-exclusive (below).

Non-exclusive franchise tag: A player must be offered a one-year contract based on the average of the non-exclusive franchise numbers at his position over the last five years and their percentage of the current year’s salary cap or 120 percent of his prior year’s salary (usually salary cap number), whichever is greater. This tag allows the player to negotiate with other NFL teams but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, his team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team.

Exclusive franchise tag: A player will receive a one-year offer from his team that is the greater of the average of the top five salaries at his position once the restricted free-agent signing period has ended (May 2) or 120 percent of his prior year’s salary. A player cannot negotiate with other teams with the exclusive franchise tag.

Corry also provided projections for the 2014 franchise tag amounts:

Screen Shot 2014-02-06 at 1.20.44 PM

In today’s NFL, first round draft picks are commodities that teams rarely part with, so the non-exclusive tag nearly always suffices (a team would have to commit a huge amount of money AND give up two first round picks in order to sign a player that another team slapped the “non-exclusive tag” on.)

I decided to look at the recent history of the franchise tag (offensive and defensive players only):

Franchise Tag History, 2007-2013

YearDefensive Players TaggedOffensive Players TaggedTotal (non K/P) Tagged
2007606
20088412
20097512
2010404
20116612
20127613

Some things to note–over the past 7 years, the number of non-Kicker’s/Punter’s that have been slapped with the franchise tag has ranged from 4-13; the annual average is 9.4.  Also, defensive players are more likely to be tagged than offensive players (65% of the players tagged over this period played on defense).

The Franchise Tag in 2014

Looking at 2014, I’d guess the number of non-K/P’s that end up being franchise tagged will be between 5 and 8. Below are some candidates (ranked in order of most likely to be tagged to least likely to be tagged):

Jimmy Graham (NO)

If the Saints and Graham can’t come to terms on a deal before the March 3rd deadline, Jimmy Graham will be slapped wit the franchise tag. He will not hit the open market—it’s that simple.

TJ Ward (CLE)

Although Ward would greatly prefer signing a long-term deal, the Browns have the leverage in these negotiations.  Based on the 2014 franchise tag projections, thee Browns can sign Ward—who had an excellent 2013—to a one-year-deal for around $8 million. This scenario seems likely, while Ward and the Browns try to hammer out a long-term extension over the summer.

Dennis Pitta (BAL)

The Ravens offense wasn’t close to the same this past year with Pitta on the sideline. The Ravens would theoretically like to lock up Pitta long-term, but I have a feeling that’ll be tough to do for a guy coming off a serious injury (my gut says that Pitta will want more than the Ravens will be willing to ante up.)

With the projected tag amount for a TE at just $6.7 million, the Ravens will almost certainly use that on Pitta if they can’t reach a long-term deal before the March 3rd deadline.

Brent Grimes (MIA)

A free agent last offseason, many teams were not interested in Grimes after he tore his Achilles and missed the final 15 games of the 2012 season. Grimes settled for a 1 year/$5.5 million deal with the Dolphins, hoping to reestablish his open market value.

Grimes certainly proved his worth—he had an excellent year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd overall CB.  But he turns 31 in July, so the Dolphins may be weary of giving him a long-term deal. He’s too talented to let walk, though, so the projected $11.25 million CB tag will likely be applied.

Greg Hardy (CAR)

When a player signs a franchise tender, the amount hits a team’s salary cap immediately. This could cause a problem for the Panthers if they intend to franchise Hardy—they currently have approximately $8.3 in cap space, while the projected 2014 franchise tag amount for a DE is greater than $12 million. So if the Panthers were to slap Hardy with the tag, they’d have to make a move elsewhere by March 11th at 4pm—the start of the new league year in which all teams must be in compliance with the 2014 salary cap.

When all is said and done, I think the Panthers will tag Hardy.  I don’t think there’s enough time for them to come to terms on a long-term deal between now and March 3rd, and he’s too valuable to the Panthers for them to let hit him the open market. Panthers GM Dave Gettleman won two Super Bowl’s as a high-ranking member of the Giants’ front office, so he’s aware of the importance of having a dominant pass rush.

One option for Gettleman could be to restructure the deal of DE Charles Johnson for the second consecutive year (possibly even adding some guaranteed money). Johnson, who turns 28 in July, is under contract for 3 more years with respective cap hits of $16.4 mil, $17.4 mil and $12.4 mil for 2014, 2015 and 2016. Like Hardy, Johnson also had a tremendous 2013.  Johnson was willing to restructure his deal last offseason, so there’s certainly a chance he’d be open to something again.

Vontae Davis (IND)

Davis is an interesting case.  The Dolphins shipped him to the Colts for a 2nd round draft pick last offseason after a down 2012, and the soon-to-be 26 year went on to have an excellent 2013 in Indianapolis (he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd overall corner this past year).

Although Davis might not be worth an $11.25 million salary for one year, the Colts have the cap space to be able to take this hit. The issue here is that while Davis won’t fetch $11.25 annually on the open market, the Colts risk losing Davis if they allow him to become an unrestricted free agent, as he’ll undoubtedly have multiple suitors on the open market.

If the Colts goal is to lock Davis up long-term, placing the franchise tag on him shifts the leverage of negotiations in Davis’ favor, as he’ll likely have no problem signing a 1-year deal at greater than $11 million while becoming a free agent again in 2015. But if they aren’t ready to commit to Davis long-term, franchising him ensures that he’ll be around in 2014–a year in which the Colts should certainly be contenders.

 
Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com
 

Breaking Down the 2014 WR Free Agent Market

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On Monday Jason posted a list of the updated available salary cap space for all 32 teams. Though these numbers are not set in stone, they certainly provide a great benchmark as the offseason is now officially underway.

I wanted to take an early look at the WR free agent class for 2014. Just like any other position, it’s rare that the league’s most talented guys will be on this list. The logic behind this is simple—when a team has a Calvin Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald, they make sure to lock him up before somebody else can. You can expect the Bengals to lock AJ Green in to an extension before his contract is up in 2014, and ditto for the Falcons and Julio Jones.

Looking at free agent WRs from the past two offseasons, Vincent Jackson is the one exception to this rule. A top 10 or 15 talent at the WR position, his situation was unique as he sat out much of the 2011 season because of a contract dispute.

2013 WR FA Class

2013 salary cap:$123 million; 2013 WR franchise tag amount:$10.5 million; 2013 WRs who received franchise tag:None

Dwayne Bowe= 5 years/$56 million/ $20 million guaranteed

Mike Wallace= 5 years/$60 million/$27 million guaranteed

Greg Jennings=5 years/$45 million/$17.8 million guaranteed

Danny Amendola=5 years/$28.5 million/$10 million guaranteed

Brian Hartline=5 years/$31 million/$12.5 million guaranteed

Wes Welker=2 years/$12 million

Victor Cruz (RFA)= 5 years/$43 million/$15.6 million guaranteed

The importance of guaranteed money and the way a contract is structured cannot be understated.  While Mike Wallace’s 5 year/$60 million deal topped last year’s free agent WR class in both total contract money and annual amount, he has a $15 million guaranteed base salary for 2014.  This means his 2014 cap hit will amount to $17.25 million; it also means the dead money amount associated with his deal will drastically decrease from 2014 to 2015. Unless Wallace improves on his 2013 season, the Dolphins will likely release him after 2014.

Greg Jennings is another example of a guy who will likely be cut after 2014 due to the structure of his contract. His cap hit is $11 million per season from 2015-2017, while the Vikings would absorb just $6 million in dead money if they cut him loose after 2014.

On the other hand, Dwayne Bowe’s base salaries are more evenly dispersed. So while his 2013 numbers in the Chiefs’ West Coast offense were not worth his contract amount, Bowe is more likely to earn the full amount of the deal he signed than both Wallace and Jennings.

2012 WR FA Class

2012 salary cap:$120.6 million; 2012 WR franchise tag:$9.5 million; 2012 WRs who received franchise tag: Bowe, Welker, DeSean Jackson

Vincent Jackson=5 years/$55.5 million/$26 million guaranteed

Pierre Garcon=5 years/$42.5 million/$13.1 million guaranteed

Marques Colston=5 years/$46 million/$17.7 million guaranteed

Reggie Wayne=3 years/$17.5 million/$7.5 million guaranteed

DeSean Jackson (after receiving franchise tag) =5 years/$48.8 million/$15 million guaranteed

The slight increase in the salary cap from 2012 to 2013 may have played a role in last year’s free agent WRs receiving more money on the open market. There was more talent in the 2012 free agent class of WRs, yet Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe both earned bigger deals than anybody in the 2012 class.

As I look at the 2014 WR UFAs, this list of the top 50 WR contracts provides a benchmark as to how WRs are valued in today’s game.  But as I said before, many of the top guys on this list never hit the open market.

2014 WR FA Class

2014 projected franchise tag amount for a WR is $11.5 million; franchise tags must be applied by March 3rd.

I don’t envision any UFA WR being slapped with the projected $11.5 million franchise tag, so all of the players listed should hit the open market. Here are some early predictions for the top 2014 free agent WRs (ranked in order of future value):

Eric Decker

His two-year-average with Peyton Manning at the helm: 86 receptions, 1176 yards and 12 TDs. His 2-year average before Peyton arrived: 25 receptions, 359 yards, 4.5 TD.

Is Decker a product of Peyton Manning or an elite NFL wideout?  The answer probably lies somewhere in between. The above numbers are a bit skewed, as Decker played only 140 snaps in his rookie year (2010) and scored 8 TDs with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball in 2011.

I recently heard Decker described as “a #2 WR that will be paid like a #1”—a statement I agree with. He’ll almost certainly be the highest paid FA WR in 2014. Working in his favor is his agent–the talented Todd France.  France negotiated Ray Rice’s 5 year/$35 million extension before the 2012 season—a deal that looks like a win for Rice after his down 2013. Look for France to get Decker top dollar in 2014, surpassing Mike Wallace’s deal in the process.

Contact Prediction: Free agents are often weary about playing in Cleveland, but I think the Browns will offer Decker the most money to play beside Josh Gordon. Browns for 5 years/$62 million ($25-$30 million guaranteed).

Jeremy Maclin

The Eagles’ 2009 first rounder caught an awful break when he tore his ACL on the first day of training camp, forcing him to miss the entire 2013 season as he entered his contract year.  If this injury didn’t occur, the Eagles would likely be in the process of locking Maclin up long-term right now.

Contact Prediction: I see Maclin resigning with Chip Kelly and the Eagles on a 1-year deal.  This makes sense for both team and player—the Eagles will probably be weary of Maclin’s health, while Maclin will likely want to reestablish his value and hit it big in 2015 free agency. Eagles for 1 year/$ 5 million

Hakeem Nicks

The oft-injured Nicks could not have had a worse contract year, failing to reach the endzone. But he is just 2 years removed from his 76 catch-1,192 yard-7 TD campaign where he helped carry the Giants to a Super Bowl victory (Nicks averaged 7-110-1 in the Giants’ four playoff wins).

Nicks turned 26 years old last month. While it’s conceivable he could also accept a 1-year pact to reestablish his value, it’s likely one team will take a chance and pay up.

Contact Prediction: I could see him going to Detroit, who lacks a legitimate threat opposite Calvin Johnson. Though their cap situation is a mess right now, Lions GM Martin Mayhew is in win-now modeLions for 3 years/$30 million ($13 million guaranteed).

Julian Edelman

Edelman is the biggest wild card at the WR position on the open market. Finally getting a chance to play a legitimate number of snaps, Edelman caught 121 balls for 1,221 yards and 7 TD (including the Pats’ two playoff games). Less than 6 feet tall, the fact that Edelman plays many of his snaps in the slot decreases his value.  However, his talent in the return game gives his value a boost.

The Pats aren’t flushed with cap space, and based on the history of how New England operates in the offseason it’s likely that Edelman ends up elsewhere.

Contact Prediction: A recent rumor listed Houston as a potential landing spot (Bill O’Brien was the former Patriots OC). Texans for 5 years/$25 million ($12 million guaranteed)

Anquan Boldin

Even at 33, Boldin proved his worth in San Francisco (85-1179-7 line). Entering his 12th season, you’d think Boldin would want to play for a contender in a situation that suits his skill set.

Contact Prediction: San Francisco’s roster is as talented as any in football and Boldin had a nice rapport with Colin Kaepernick. My guess is that he stays in the Bay area on a 2-year deal. 49ers for 2 years/$12 million

Golden Tate

Some front office execs will  be turned off by the 5’10 Tate, who lacks supreme size and speed for the WR position.

Others will see him as a precise route-runner with big-play ability.

Tate said yesterday that he’d be willing to take slightly less to stay in Seattle. But with Percy Harvin returning to full health and the Seahawks needing to lock up Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Russell Wilson in the near future, Tate’s time in Seattle is almost certainly done. He should receive a deal in the same range as Julian Edelman’s.

Contact Prediction: The Jets—who will have nothing at the WR position after they let Santonio Holmes walk—are a possible destination. Gang Green has over $20 million in projected cap space and a bunch of talent on defense, so signing a WR should be a priority. Jets for 5 years/$25 million ($12 million guaranteed)

James Jones

With Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin and plenty of holes to fill on defense, it’d surprise me if Green Bay made much of an attempt to resign the soon-to-be 30-year-old.

Jones signed a 3-year deal worth almost $10 million after the Packers 2010 Super Bowl run, as the market for Jones’ services was dry. Now 3 years older, Jone’ will have even less suitors, and he’ll surely get less than that this time around.

Contact Prediction: As I just mentioned, the Jets have next to nothing at the WR position, so they could conceivably bring in more than one wideout. Jets for 2 years/$6 million

Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com
 
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‘Come At The King, You Best Not Miss’

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“He’s a sheer competitor, phenomenal athlete, and I think those of us mortals who don’t have those abilities, sometimes it’s hard to discern the difference between that natural confidence born by that ability, and what some would label as arrogance or conceit.”

Believe it or not, the above quote isn’t about Richard Sherman—it’s former Ravens Head Coach Brian Billick putting his psychologist hat on, attempting to explain the rash personality of Randy Moss.

But it certainly applies to Sherman as well.  Because like Moss, Richard Sherman is a pure competitor with unique physical gifts. And just as Moss played (when he wanted to) with a mammoth chip permanently imprinted on his shoulder, forever remembering each team that passed him up in the 1998 draft, Richard Sherman does the same.  He doesn’t ever forget that he fell to the 5th round in the 2011 Draft, and he doesn’t ever forget the reasons why.

If you think Sherman is arrogant, unsportsmanlike, that he hasn’t a filter, that he takes the term ‘self-promotion’ to a whole ‘nother level in today’s social media era where self-promotion has become second nature to so many—well I guess I can’t really blame you.

And if you choose to believe that he’s just supremely confident—a Stanford graduate from Compton, a student of the game with a calculated method to his trash-talking—that’s fine too.

But if you think he’s anything other than the best cornerback in football, than you simply haven’t watched him play enough. I wrote this back on December 19th, dissecting his season and career thus far. Three years younger and one knee surgery fewer, Sherman compares favorably to Darrelle Revis.

After Sherman belittled Michael Crabtree on national TV last night, Crabtree took to Twitter to defend himself:

If you re-watch the tape, I must admit that Crabtree’s partially right. You don’t really see Richard Sherman batting down passes or flying around the field making tackles. Truth is, you don’t really see much of Richard Sherman at all, which is the same way it’s been all year (his 9.5 coverage snaps per target ratio— a Pro Football Focus created statistic that charts the amount of times a cornerback is the primary man in coverage relative to how many times his receiver is targeted—means Sherman was 2013’s least targeted cornerback).

For the first 59:30 of yesterday’s NFC Championship game, San Francisco wisely stayed out of Sherman’s way. The 49ers officially ran 57 offensive plays yesterday, and during the first 56 of those plays San Francisco only looked Richard Sherman’s way once.

But with the game on the line, Colin Kaepernick decided to take his second shot at Sherman.   He threw a fade route to Crabtree, his most-trusted receiver, who was one-on-one with Sherman—a decision that will surely haunt him and the rest of the 49ers faithful forever.

Like Sherman stated moments later in his instant-classic interview with Erin Andrews, he’s the best cornerback in football. So if you’re going to attack him, you better be perfect.

If not, plan to pay the price.  Cause Richard Sherman is the best—King of the Cornerback’s.

And if you come at the King, you best not miss.

 

Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com