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When attempting to project the landing spots of 2014’s top free agents a few weeks back, I predicted that the result of the inevitable grievance that Jimmy Graham’s camp will soon file would determine his fate.

The Saints slapped Graham with the nonexclusive franchise tag as a TE.  A TE who plays under this one-year deal would make $7.035 million. Graham, however, wants to be paid the $12.312 million franchise figure assigned to WRs. And according to the wording of the CBA, Graham seems to have a legitimate argument:

“The Nonexclusive Franchise Tender shall be a one year NFL Player Contract…at which the Franchise Player participated in the most plays during the prior League Year.”

ESPN Stats & Information shows Graham lined up in a traditional wide receiver position (in the slot or out wide) 66.8% of the time.

The Saints will likely counter this point by arguing they drafted Graham as a TE, and that the NFL’s evolution into a passing league creates the need for TEs to play as a receiver.

Ultimately, an arbitrator will have the final call, and the arbitrator’s verdict may determine whether or not Graham signs an extension.

If Graham signed the 2014 TE tag today the Saints would be about $1.5 million under the $133 million cap. Coincidentally, the cap space required for the Saints to sign their 2014 rookies is also about $1.5 million, meaning they’d be just on the fringe of the 2014 salary cap if they made no further moves.

But if Graham ends up winning his appeal and receiving the WR tag, the Saints would have to make some roster moves to clear up cap space. They’d surely do this to make room for Graham, but would lose all negotiating leverage in the process.

The CBA stipulates that if a team tags a player twice in a row that player gets a 20% raise from Year 1 to Year 2. A 20% increase from $7.035 million (the TE franchise tag number) is $8.442 million.  This means the Saints could tag Graham both this year and next for a total of $15.477 million.

But a 20% increase from $12.312 million (the WR franchise tag number) is $14.774 million. New Orleans 2015 cap situation—like their 2014 cap situation—is not great. They currently have $114,089,329 tied up in 2015 contracts, so this second scenario would greatly inhibit their ability to sign Graham to a long-term deal now.

A $12.312 million one-year salary would probably incentivize Graham to become a free agent again in 2015. I estimate that Graham is targeting a deal in excess of 5-years/$60 million with greater than half of that guaranteed. His $12.312 million 2014 salary would net him around 30-40% of the guaranteed money he’d receive with a new deal. Unless he suffered a significant injury at the end of this coming season, chances are he’d end up exceeding the amount he’d make if he signed a deal now (at least in terms of guaranteed money) as an UFA in 2015.

While the possibility of incurring a serious injury is risky, it’s a risk Graham may take. Plus, $12.312 million is nice insurance—especially considering he’s made just $3.3 million over his first 4 years.

I also mentioned the unlikely possibility of a team surrendering two first round draft picks to pry Graham away from New Orleans. A few people have inquired about the specifics of these draft picks, and whether a team could trade back in the next two drafts and surrender those picks to New Orleans.

According to the CBA, the draft pick compensation for non-exclusive franchised players is treated the same way as draft pick compensation for restricted free agents:

“…and the Restricted Free Agent’s Prior  Club shall receive from the New Club the Draft Choice Compensation, if any, specified in Section 2 above of this Article. Any Club that does not have available, in the upcom­ing Draft, the selection choice or choices (its own or better choices in the applicable rounds) needed to provide Draft Choice Compensation in the event of a timely First Refusal Exercise Notice may not sign an Offer Sheet in such circumstances.”

“Its own or better choices in the applicable rounds” means the idea of trading down before signing Graham is not allowed.

When dissecting the NFL’s top Tight End’s, there’s Rob Gronkowski & Jimmy Graham—and then there’s everybody else. Gronk and Graham have redefined the TE position, so it’s no surprise that the 6-year/$54 million extension that Gronkowski signed before the 2012 season is being floated around as a baseline for Graham’s new deal.

Rob Gronkowski Contract Specifics

However, Graham is rightfully looking to surpass Gronk’s deal. Here are some of the reasons why:

Timing of deals: Gronkowski signed his extension after his second year in the league; he still had two years remaining on his rookie deal at the time of the extension. If hindsight’s 20/20, it seems Gronk made a phenomenal financial decision, as he’s suffered multiple serious injuries in the past couple of years.

But Gronk’s decision to extend his contract when he did (with two years remaining on his rookie contract) meant that his leverage in negotiations was sapped.  If Gronkowski were a free agent after his monstrous 2011 campaign (as Graham is now), he would have received a much bigger deal than he did.

Salary Cap: When Gronk was extended two years ago, the salary cap stood at $120.6 million.  Since then, it has increased by greater than 10% to $133 million (and could go up even more in the next couple of years).

Injury history: While Gronkowski didn’t miss a game in either of his first two seasons, his injury history still may have played a role in his 2012 negotiations.  He was just a few years removed from the back surgery that caused him to miss his junior season at Arizona in 2009 (which was the only reason he fell to New England in the second round of the 2010 draft.)

And although some may also label Graham as “injury-prone”, they’d be better off simply labeling him as “extraordinarily tough.”  Despite a wrist injury in 2012 and a partially torn plantar fascia this past season, he suited up for every game but one over the past two years.

Both Gronkowski and Graham are superb talents who are nearly un-guardable in the red-zone. While Gronk is a superior blocker to Graham, keep in mind that Graham does not come from a football background (he began playing organized football in 2009 after playing four years of basketball for the University of Miami), so this area of his game can still improve (and according to his Pro Football Focus blocking grades, Graham is not a complete liability as a blocker).

It’s unlikely that Graham and the Saints come to an agreement anytime soon, as they reportedly still remain far apart in talks. The Saints placed the franchise tag on Graham as a TE, while Graham’s camp will file a grievance to have him tagged as a WR (the difference in these numbers is an enormous $5.3 million).

But it’s important to note that the Saints placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Graham, which is defined below (click here for a complete overview of the franchise tag).

Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag– This is the most common tag that is applied in the NFL. The value is determined using five prior years of data to determine the percentage of the salary cap that a top 5 player at the position should occupy. This player can still negotiate with other teams but if they sign with another team the team that applied the tag has the option to match the contract or accept two first round draft picks as compensation.

Two first round draft picks plus a market-setting contract is a huge price to pay for any player, especially when that player doesn’t play QB. Picks at the beginning of the first round are of course more valuable than late first round picks, so the possibility of a team snagging away a non-exclusively franchised player is only ever associated with teams who hold late 1^st rounder’s (and by associated, I mean by the media; we’ve never actually seen a team go through with this).

But there are two teams who this could make sense for.  While admittedly unlikely, let’s look at the possibility.

NY Jets— The Jets hold the 18^th pick in the first round this year (for reference on pick values, this is the chart that front office execs use when determining the value of their draft picks for trade purposes.) Once the Jets rid themselves of Santonio Holmes, Mark Sanchez and Antonio Cromartie in the coming days, they’ll have more 2014 cap space than they’ll be able to spend.

In a draft as deep as this year’s, Gang Green will certainly have the opportunity to get a great talent at 18. The Jets might have the worst set of skill-position guys in the league, so it’s likely that they draft a WR or TE at this #18 (the super-athletic Eric Ebron has been associated with the Jets, but my guess is he’ll be gone by the time they pick).

Miami Dolphins— Graham could also be in play for the Dolphins. Miami picks 19^th in this year’s draft and also has a ton of 2014 available cap space. Their need to add play-making receivers is not as vital as the Jets’, but the Dolphins could still surely find a place for Graham.  If Eric Ebron were there at #19, he would definitely be an option for Miami.

This scenario may actually make more sense for Miami—they have a more secure QB situation, meaning they theoretically have a better chance of 2015 success (decreasing the value of the second draft pick they’d have to give up). Graham also has Miami roots from his college days at UM.

First Round TE’s, Last 10 Years

There have been just 10 TE’s drafted in the first round of the past ten draft’s.  Of these first rounder’s, only Vernon Davis jumps off the page from a production perspective. Ebron could end up being a great player, but it is of course far from a guarantee that his skill-set will translate to the pro game.

Jimmy Graham gives you that guarantee, as he’s undoubtedly one of the best offensive weapons in football.

Either the Jets or Dolphins could offer Graham $12-$13 million annually over 5 years (let’s say $62 million total). They could give Graham a large signing bonus (let’s say $15 million), while also front-loading the deal. This not only would prohibit New Orleans’ ability to match the contract, but it would not harm the Jets or Dolphins franchise for future years.

A potential contract could look like this, with $40 million guaranteed ($15 million signing bonus plus ’14 & ’15 salaries):

The abundance of 2014 cap space that the Jets and Dolphins hold means either would be able to take on Graham’s cap hit salary for the coming season. But of course these teams would have to give up a second first round selection, and it’s it that second pick that might be the deal breaker.

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All it took was one Adam Schefter tweet for DeMaurice Smith and the players to breathe a sigh of relief.  The salary cap has officially been set at $133 million for the 2014 league year—a $10 million increase from 2013.  By 2016 the cap is projected be as high as $150 million.

I’m skeptical of reading into salary cap projections for future years simply because past “expert projections” have been inaccurate.  As recently as a couple of weeks ago industry experts were all but certain that the 2014 salary cap would be $130 million—$3 million less than what it ended up being.

In March 2012, ESPNs John Clayton wrote this article that contained the following:

After having flat caps of $120.375 million in 2011 and $120.6 million in 2012, the NFL management council told clubs Tuesday that the cap won’t increase much in the next three years. In fact, the 2015 cap may go up to only $122 million, according to management council projections.

For whatever reason (probably mostly due to the complex formula that makes up the salary cap), projecting the cap is not something that industry experts have done well in the past.

It’s not a coincidence that teams began using the franchise tag on the same day this announcement regarding an increased salary cap was made. The Saints tagged TE Jimmy Graham, the Jets tagged K Nick Folk, and the Panthers tagged DE Greg Hardy.

But franchising a Kicker is a common practice and the Saints really had no choice but to franchise Graham.  It’s Carolina’s tagging of Hardy that’s by far the most interesting move to me.

By slapping Hardy with the tag, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman is saying two things: that he truly believes the cap will continue to increase, and that there is nothing more important than rushing the passer.

The $13.1 million cost of tagging Hardy comprises the majority of Carolina’s 2014 free agent spending money. And Gettleman made this decision in spite of Charles Johnson, the Defensive End who plays opposite Hardy, carrying a $16,420,000 2014 cap hit that increases to $17,420,000 in 2015.  He did it despite franchise QB Cam Newton entering the final year of his rookie deal and despite the contract of reigning DPOY Luke Kuechly expiring after 2015.

Gettleman also made the decision to tag Hardy knowing that all four starters in Carolina’s secondary—Cornerback’s Captain Munnerlyn & Drayton Florence and Safety’s Quintin Mikell & Mike Mitchell—are current free agents.

Before Gettleman was hired as Panthers GM (in 2013), he spent the 14 years prior as a high-ranking official in the Giants front office. He helped build both the 2007 and 2011 teams that sacked their way to Super Bowl victories behind relentless defensive line play, so he knows how important that aspect of the game is.

But both those Giants teams were more complete than the current Panthers, specifically in terms of offensive talent. The Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer tandem in ’07 and the Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz duo in ’11 were more talented than any of the Panthers’ playmakers, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs compare favorably to a declining Deangelo Williams and a constantly injured Jon Stewart.

I understand how difficult it is to let a player like Hardy walk in free agency.  A “homegrown” talent, the Panthers stole Hardy in the 6^th round of the 2010 draft; he’s since developed into one of the game’s premier pass rushers. But the great front-office-men know how to build for both the present and the future. And sometimes doing so involves making tough decisions.

The Panthers—who had one of the leagues best defenses in 2013—still have plenty of holes to fill.  By committing so much money to Hardy, Gettleman may be setting the franchise up for failure in the coming years.

The start of NFL free agency is just over two weeks away.  On March 11^th, all unrestricted free agents will be able to ink deals with the team of their choice.

But of course a team cannot sign a player unless they have the available salary cap space. So which teams will be the biggest spenders in 2014 free agency?

Note:  Chart assumes Tony Gonzalez will retire (he recently signed a deal to join CBS’s pre-game show).

Above I have included the Effective Cap Space of all 32 teams.  Since each team will be required to remain under the salary cap when they sign their newly drafted players to contracts, Effective Cap Space= (Current Available Salary Cap Space) – (Cap Space Required to Sign Incoming Rookie Class).

Obviously these numbers are not set in stone.  Not only will a team’s Year One Rookie Pool (the amount of salary cap space that each team will have to spend on their incoming rookies) change via the trading of draft picks and the awarding of compensatory picks, but there is also still time for teams to cut players.

For example, it’s likely that the Jets will cut or restructure the contracts of Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes and Mark Sanchez in the coming weeks. So while the Jets’ Effective Cap Space currently sits at $21.7 million, it is actually a lot more than that—cutting loose these 3 players would free up another $26 million in cap space.

The Jets are the most extreme example; not every team is going to free up cap space like this in the coming weeks (except for Dallas, whose current Effective Cap Space of -$22 million leaves them with no choice). However, there are other teams who can (and will) create cap space by making what they feel are smart football moves.

When dissecting the landing spots of the cream of the 2014 free agent class crop, other factors come into play as well. One major component is a team’s need to prepare for the future.  I’ll use the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks as an example.

Seattle’s current Effective Cap Space is now greater than $10 million with their recent release of Sidney Rice. They can free up 7.5 million more cap dollars by cutting the 32-year-old Chris Clemons, and another $5 million by releasing Zach Miller.  As neither Clemons nor Miller are major contributing pieces in Seattle, it’s possible (even probable) that they’ll be cut or forced to take a pay cut (cutting both would leave Seattle with around $22.5 million in Effective Cap Space.)

In theory, $22.5 million in cap space is more than enough to make a play for a top free agent. Yet the top free agent’s will be looking to strike multi-year deals with major guaranteed money—the type of deals that take up cap space not only in 2014 but in future years as well. Since the contracts of three of the Seahawks’ key contributors—QB Russell Wilson (signed through 2015), CB Richard Sherman (signed through 2014) and S Earl Thomas (signed through 2014)— are all set to expire, Seattle must take this into account when making their 2014 free agency decisions.  So even though Seattle will probably create the necessary cap space to sign some of 2014’s top free agents by making efficient roster moves, it’s unlikely that they’ll use this money on any top-tier free agent.

Lastly, remember that teams can use the franchise tag on any of their unrestricted free agent’s until March 3^rd, meaning no player is officially on the open market until then.

Based on all of these factors, here are my projected destinations for the Top 10 Most Valuable 2014 Free Agents (ranked in descending order of how much money I believe each player would get if the franchise tag were not in play).

1) Jimmy Graham (TE, NO) Graham is the most talented UFA and would surely receive a king’s ransom if he were to hit the open market. But his situation is particularly interesting because of the franchise tag scenario.  If the Saints don’t lock him up by March 3^rd, they’ll slap him with the franchise tag as a TE (projected to be around $7 million).  Graham’s camp (his agent is Jimmy Sexton of CAA) will then file a grievance to be tagged as a WR (which will net him around $12 million).

Prediction= Graham has made just $2.4 million in his first four years in the league, so he’ll want to sign a long-term deal where he’s financially secure for life. However, the Saints’ poor cap situation prevents them from giving him the money he’d make elsewhere. My guess is that if he wins his franchise tag grievance, he’ll take the $12 million for one season (about 6 times more than Graham has made in his first four years). A long-term deal won’t be reached under this scenario, and Graham will become a free agent again next year. But if Graham loses the grievance, the Saints will gain leverage in the talks and a long-term extension will be reached.

2) Brian Orakpo (OLB, WAS) A tremendous talent who’s been derailed by injuries in the past, Orakpo stayed healthy in 2013 and had an excellent year.  The Redskins have plenty of cap space and Dan Synder won’t be afraid to use it all.

Prediction=Regardless of whether or not he’s slapped with the franchise tag, I think Orakpo will ultimately sign a long-term deal to stay in Washington.

3) Greg Hardy (DE, CAR) Unfortunately for Carolina, they failed to resign Hardy to an extension when they had the chance last year.  It’s now probably too late. Franchising him is a possibility, but with Cam Newton in line to get a monster new contract (his deal expires after 2014), the financials simply don’t work out for Carolina.

Prediction= A Drew Rosenhaus client, I see Hardy following the money and landing in either JAX or OAK (both utilize a 4-3 defense).

4) Eric Decker (WR, DEN) The top free agent WR on the market, Decker should hit it big.

Prediction= I previously predicted that Decker would take his talents to Cleveland. My guess is that he’ll end up as either a Brown or a Jet.

5) Michael Johnson (DE, CIN) Franchise tagged by the Bengals last year, Johnson will hit the open market this year.  He turned just 27 earlier this month, and could collect $10 million annually as a UFA.

Prediction= The Falcons have some cap room to play with, and would clear up $3.5 million more by cutting Osi Umenyiora.  I could definitely see Johnson taking Osi’s place.

6) Jairus Byrd (S, BUF) Also slapped with the franchise tag last year, the Bills are reportedly willing to franchise him again.

Prediction= Whether or not Byrd is franchised, I ultimately see him signing a long-term deal with Buffalo.

7 & 8) T.J. Ward (S, CLE) & Alex Mack (C, CLE) As I’ve stated before, I don’t see the Browns letting either guy walk.

Prediction= Ultimately, I think one will be franchised (more likely Ward), but I see both guys signing long-term deals to stay in Cleveland.

9) Jason Worilds (OLB, PIT) Worilds had his most productive year in his contract year. Pittsburgh would surely like to keep them, but their cap situation won’t allow for it.

Prediction= Philadelphia not only has a legitimate amount of available cap space, but they could create more in the coming days.  LB Demeco Ryans would save them $6,900,000 (with no dead money) if he were released.  The Eagles would save $4,075,000 (also with no dead money) by cutting TE Brent Celek loose, and $3,250,000 with the release of WR Jason Avant. I see Philly using this money to sign Worilds, who’d be a nice fit in their new 3-4 scheme.

10) Dennis Pitta (TE, BAL) Pitta’s situation is similar to TE Jimmy Graham’s in that he’ll also attempt to be designated as a WR for franchise tag purposes. But Baltimore’s cap situation is much better than NO’s (and Pitta is an inferior talent to Graham).

Prediction= Whether or not Pitta is tagged, I think the sides will eventually agree to a long-term deal.

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Sam Bradford’s current contract situation is this offseason’s most intriguing storyline. The way I see it, there are four different ways that this scenario can play out. The Rams can release Bradford, they can sign him to an extension where he does not take a pay cut, they can sign him to an extension where he does agree to a pay cut, or they can sit still and do nothing at all.

Before I get into the pros and cons associated with each scenario for both the Rams and Bradford, let me lay out some of the facts:

-Bradford’s current contract, which he signed before his rookie year, contains no more guaranteed money.

-Bradford is set to make $14,015,000 in 2014 base salary under this current deal. This deal carries a $17,610,000 2014 cap hit, and the Rams would absorb $7,190,000 in dead money if they cut Bradford right now ($3,595,000 X 2= $7,190,000, where $3,595,000 is the prorated bonus amount for both this year and next)

-Bradford is set to make $12,985,000 in 2015 base salary under his current deal. His 2015 cap figure is $16,580,000, and the Rams would absorb $3,595,000 in dead money if they cut Bradford after the 2014 season.

-Based on projections, the Rams are currently $617,233 under the 2014 cap.

-The Rams must remain under the cap by the start of the league year on March 11^th.

-The Rams have both the 2^nd overall pick and 13^th overall pick in 2014 draft.

-The Rams have the 2^nd highest projected Year One Pool (barring any trades, it will cost $9,484,925 in 2014 cap space to sign their 2014 rookie class). However, since the Rams have 9 draft picks and would have to make room for all 9 players if they signed them (meaning cutting players who are currently on their roster), $5,704,925 is the actual amount of cap space required to sign their rookie class.

I wrote the following regarding this situation on December 12, which explains why the Rams are in this position to begin with:

 Sam Bradford was the last #1 pick to truly hit the lottery.  2010s #1 overall selection, his 6-year/$78 million contract included $50 million in guaranteed money.

Unfortunately for the NFL Draft’s subsequent top selections, the 2011 CBA included the implementation of rookie wage scale. Both the owners and veteran players had been fed up with unproven rookies making such absurd amounts of money.

Four years into Sam Bradford’s career (his 2013 campaign ended when he tore his ACL in November), and he’s one of many poster children for why a rookie wage scale makes sense.  Although injuries, poor offensive-line play and a lack of talented skill position players have all played their role, Bradford remains unproven.

Bradford is still young, has already pocketed over $50 million, and would ostensibly be most concerned with being a starting quarterback. The Rams, who have been bad for a long time (they have not had a winning record since 2003!), have a decent amount of talent stockpiled—the result of picking so high in the draft for such a long time. If Bradford suddenly began performing like the #1 overall pick that he is, the Rams would be true contenders.

So how will St. Louis handle the Bradford situation this offseason? Let’s look at the pros and cons for each side under the four different scenarios:

1) Releasing Bradford

Positives for the Rams: St. Louis would free up $10,420,000 in cap space right away by releasing him—money that could be used in free agency.

Negatives for the Rams: The Rams would not have a QB, and would almost certainly have to draft one with the #2 overall pick in May. St. Louis would also have to eat $7,190,000 in dead money under this scenario.

Positives for Bradford: In a league where solid QB play is a true commodity, Bradford would not be out of work long. Teams that would plausibly be interested in Bradford are MIN, TB, ARI, NYJ, CLE, TEN, JAX, HOU and OAK. If the medical reports on his torn ACL continue to be positive, it’s likely that Bradford would have the upper hand on the starting QB job with whatever team he signed with.  He’d also secure some guaranteed money under this scenario.

Negatives for Bradford: Bradford would lose out on his $14,015,000 2014 base salary. Though he would catch on elsewhere, this would mean taking a 2014 pay cut.

2) Extending Bradford (no pay cut)

Positives for the Rams: The Rams would clear up cap space immediately, again meaning they’d be able to become players in free agency.

Negatives for the Rams: This scenario means the Rams would be committing to Bradford as their QB of the future at a huge cost. This could greatly handicap the franchise in the future.

Positives for Bradford: Bradford would not only be the starting QB in the short-term, but he’d be making a ton of (guaranteed) money to assume this role.

Negatives for Bradford: If Bradford were extended without having to take a pay cut, there’d really be no negatives for him.  Unless he suddenly turned into Aaron Rodgers, Bradford would win big under this scenario.

3) Extending Bradford (Bradford agrees to pay cut)

Positives for the Rams: The Rams could use both their 1^st round picks on accumulating even more talent around Bradford. They’d also clear up cap space in the short term.

Negatives for the Rams: While this scenario could end up working out, it’s far from a sure thing, and St. Louis would still be guaranteeing Bradford future money (an approach that has not worked out well for them in the past). This is somewhat similar to what the Jets did with Mark Sanchez two offseasons ago (though Sanchez didn’t take a pay cut).

Positives for Bradford: Even if Bradford agreed to a pay cut, an extension means that he’d still receive guaranteed money—something he does not have under his current deal. And it’s still possible that he’d make more money (while taking a pay cut to remain in St. Louis) than he would on the open market—a scenario in which he’d have to learn a new system.

Negatives for Bradford: Bradford would make less money than he is currently slated to make. There’d also be the possibility (albeit, a slight one) that he’d outperform this new deal, and end up being underpaid down the line (this would all depend on the terms of the pay cut).

4) Do Nothing:

Positives for the Rams: In contrast to either extension scenario, the lack of any more guaranteed money in Bradford’s contract means the Rams would only be committing to Bradford for 2014 (as a vested veteran with 4 league years, his entire 2014 salary would be guaranteed if he is on the roster Week 1).

Negatives for the Rams: It means the Rams would be paying a huge sum of money in 2014 to an unproven QB (his 2014 cap hit would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger).

Positives for Bradford: The Rams’ cost would be Bradford’s fortune; Bradford would make a huge amount of money for 2014.

Negatives for Bradford: If Bradford failed to produce, his large 2015 base salary means the Rams would cut him and his NFL career would be on thin ice. He’d find a suitor in 2015 free agency, but a poor 2014 campaign would dry out his market.