The Cleveland Browns front office shocked the football world yesterday when they fired head coach Rob Chudzinski after just one season.  While the Browns were just 4-12 in 2013, Chud probably deserved at least a second season. Anyways, now that he’s gone, I actually must say that I view Cleveland as an enticing landing-spot for whoever ends up taking his place.

The defense—with Joe Haden, Phil Taylor, Ahtyba Rubin, Paul Kruger, Barkevious Mingo, D’Qwell Jackson and (impending free agent) T.J. Ward—is not short on talent.  While the offense  struggled this past season, there were a few bright spots; Joe Thomas has long been the best LT in football, Josh Gordon proved he is a legitimate top-tier WR and Jordan Cameron emerged as a true playmaking TE.

It’s obviously impossible to win in this league without a quarterback, and the combination of Brandon Weeden/Jason Campbell isn’t going to win any coach many games. Cleveland was actually at its best when Brian Hoyer, who showed some positive signs early in the year, was at the helm.  Unfortunately he tore his ACL in a week 5 Thursday night start.

The Browns have the 4^th overall pick this year, which they will almost surely use on their next franchise quarterback.  They also have a massive hole at running back—but did net the Colts’ 2014 first round pick after trading them Trent Richardson early in the year.

Looking at the 2014 Salary Cap estimates that Jason posted yesterday, the Browns will be loaded with plenty of cap space. As I said this past week, I could see Cleveland as potential landing spot for Chris Johnson once he is inevitably released from Tennessee. Cleveland may also use some of this money on upgrading their #2 WR position opposite of Josh Gordon.

As for who the new coach might be?

Browns GM Michael Lombardi is largely connected to Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. In February 2011 while working as a columnist for NFL Network, Lombardi had this to say about then Patriots backup Brian Hoyer: “I think if I was still in the league and needed a quarterback, instead of chasing (Kevin) Kolb, I would chase Brian Hoyer of the Patriots. If teams evaluate New England’s Week 17 game against Miami, they’d see that Hoyer demonstrates the skills needed to be a starter.” (link here).  The Browns then signed Hoyer and pushed him into the starting role once Lombardi arrived in Cleveland as the GM.

Moreover, Lombardi’s son, Mick, an up-and-coming coach, got his start in the league as a scouting assistant with Belichick’s Pats in 2012 (he recently left to join the 49ers staff). While Lombardi’s opinion in Cleveland may matter less than both Owner Jimmy Haslam’s & CEO Joe Banner’s, I would bet that Lombardi is making a strong push to bring in Belichick disciple (and current Patriots OC) Josh McDaniels as the Browns’ next coach.

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Despite a roster rich in talent, the Detroit Lions will miss the playoffs for the thirteenth time in the past fourteen years.  Head Coach Jim Schwartz will likely be fired any day; GM Martin Mayhew is expected to be retained for at least another year.

Since Mayhew took over for Matt Millen in the 2009 offseason, the Lions haven’t had much success.  Detroit’s rare 2011 playoff appearance aside (they lost in the Wild Card round in 2011), the Lions went 4-12 last year and currently sit at 7-8—eliminated from playoff contention ahead of today’s meaningless game at Minnesota. If the Lions miss the playoffs again next season, Mayhew will very likely be fired. And he undoubtedly knows this.

Similar to a player being in a “contract year”, Mayhew is entering his own a make or break 2014.  And this reality will certainly affect the way he does business this offseason—a crucial offseason for Detroit.

Ndamukong Suh’s Pro Bowl selection triggered a $1 million escalator in his contract, setting his 2014 cap figure at a whopping $22.4 million. The reason for this is that Suh has restructured his contract each of the past two years. This past year he accepted a league minimum base salary, while pushing money owed forward into a signing bonus prorated over the remainder of his deal (not an uncommon league practice).

Mayhew also used this restructure method with Calvin Johnson during the past offseason. When Johnson agreed to take a league minimum base salary for 2013 on the 8-year/$150 million contract he signed in March of 2012, it meant his $8.7 million cap hit for this season would increase to over $13 million next season, $20.5 million in 2015 and over $24 million in 2016.

The present situation in Pittsburgh perfectly exemplifies how making short-sighted decisions, such as constantly restructuring the deals of your highest paid players, can eventually come back to bite you. The short-term relief these decisions provide is often not worth the risk when looking at the franchises best long-term interests. While Suh and Johnson’s 2013 restructures allowed Mayhew the flexibility to lock Matthew Stafford into a long-term extension as well as sign free agent Reggie Bush, they came with a future cost.

When assessing the pros and cons of all personnel decisions, it is supposed to be the job of a GM to look at both the short-term and the long-term. Yet often times, in such a cutthroat industry, the person making these personnel decisions isn’t thinking about the franchises long-term interests. With the NFLs “win or you’re gone” mentality, front office men know that if they fail in the short-term, they won’t be around to bear the consequences of their poor decisions.

The fact of the matter is there are very few coaches or GMs in the NFL who are blessed with job security. Kevin Colbert, the man behind the current salary cap mess in Pittsburgh, is not on the hot seat just yet; that’s what two Super Bowl’s and eight playoff appearances in a 13-year tenure will do for you. The job of Giants GM Jerry Reese, who’s won two Super Bowl’s in just seven years on the job, is ostensibly safe for now as well, even though the Giants have missed the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. But even in the cases of these two men—whose multiple championships symbolize as much success as anyone in today’s NFL—they surely will begin to feel pressure sooner rather than later.

When Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum was fired last offseason, he left the Jets cap situation in disarray.  One notable move that Tannenbaum made in the year prior to his discharge was extending Mark Sanchez in March 2012 (note: this was after the Jets failed in their attempts to get Peyton Manning).  Did Tannenbaum truly think Sanchez—a guy who had just suffered through three up and down years as a pro—was the future of the Jets franchise? Or did he fear the clock on his term might have been running out?

As the guaranteed portion of Sanchez’s rookie contract was already up after the 2012 season, Sanchez’s contract stipulated an $11.5 million cap hit in 2012 and a $7.5 million cap hit in 2013—a team-friendly deal for a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL. By extending Sanchez, Tannenbaum freed up almost $4 million in cap space for the 2012 offseason.  But at the same time, he guaranteed both the 2012 and 2013 salaries (worth over $20 million) of Sanchez.

The move was worth it for Tannenbaum; the freed up cap space was extra spending money that he got to use during the 2012 offseason. As for the “risk” that Sanchez (a guy that he drafted) would turn out to be a starting caliber quarterback—well that’s no longer Tannebaum’s problem. New Jets GM John Idzik is the one cleaning up the Sanchez mess now. Had Tannenbaum decided not to extend Sanchez, he almost surely still would have been fired after Sanchez and the Jets’ disastrous 2012 season.  The only difference is he would have had $4 million less to spend on 2012 roster talent.

As it stands currently, the combined 2014 cap hits for Suh, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford is over $51 million. That will undoubtedly change; $51 million is approximately 40% of the projected $126 million 2014 salary cap—far too much for just three players to consume.

With Stafford, Johnson, Suh, Nick Fairley, Reggie Bush and Ziggy Ansah, the Lions have a very talented nucleus of players. However, they do have holes—chiefly in their secondary—and Mayhew will have to get creative in order to fill these holes.

Expect the contract’s of some key Lions to be extended and/or restructured again this offseason. And if things don’t work out for the Lions in 2014, expect there to be a new GM in Detroit after this season.

The new GMs main order of business? It may just be to clean up the mess that Mayhew left behind.

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The Seahawks shut out the Giants 23-0 at the Meadowlands this past Sunday, which means that if Seattle is going to play another game away from home this season it will almost certainly be back in the Meadowlands—at MetLife Stadium in February for Super Bowl XLVIII.

The Seahawks haven’t technically clinched home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs—they need to win one of their last two games to secure the NFCs #1 seed.  But with both these games at their home CenturyLink Field (vs. ARI & vs. STL), where they haven’t lost since 2011, the odds are heavily in their favor.

Russell Wilson was prepping for a start in the Rose Bowl when the Seahawks last lost at home, and his unique development since being selected in the 3^rd round of last year’s draft is the most obvious reason for the Seahawks’ recent success. But a defensive player—another Seahawks draft day ‘sleeper’—may be playing just as big of a role in Seattle’s emergence.

A year before Seattle drafted Wilson, they selected CB Richard Sherman in the 5^th round (154^th overall) of the 2011 draft.  In 2012, just his second season, Sherman had 8 INTs, 3 FFs, 1 TD and was Pro Football Focus’ second ranked CB. Never one to keep quiet about his abilities, Sherman inferred he was on Darrelle Revis’ level after the 2012 season, and a much-publicized Sherman-Revis Twitter War ensued.

Though Revis sat out most of 2012 with a torn ACL, he has long been the measuring stick for NFL CBs, considered the leagues best. But take a closer look and the numbers show that Sherman is just as good, if not better:

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Coverage Snaps per Target=A Pro Football Focus created statistic; the amount of times a cornerback is the primary man in coverage relative to how many times his receiver is targeted.

Coverage Snaps per Reception= A Pro Football Focus created statistic; the amount of times a cornerback is the primary man in coverage relative to how many receptions he allows.

Compare the last two full healthy seasons of each player, and their numbers are jarringly similar.  This year, Sherman and Revis rank 1^st and 2^nd respectively among NFL CBs in PFFs Coverage Snaps per Target statistic (explained above), meaning there are no CBs that QBs are more afraid of.  And although Revis has allowed substantially less yards thus far this year (199, to be exact), one could argue these numbers are a bit skewed; Sherman was charged with giving up a week 5 73-yard-touchdown to TY Hilton that was more a product of a miscommunication with Safety Earl Thomas than actually getting beat in coverage.

One would have a much more difficult time arguing against Sherman’s playmaking ability, though.  In spite of being targeted so sparingly, Sherman was tied for second in the NFL with 8 INTs last year, while also forcing 3 fumbles.  After securing his 6^th INT of the year this past Sunday, he is now tied for first in that category in 2013—with of course none bigger than the interception he returned 58-yards for a touchdown with under 3 minutes to play in week 4 at Houston to tie the game at 20. Seattle went on to win that game 23-20 in Overtime.

As a 5^th rounder, Sherman is only making a base salary of $555,000 this year. That rises to $645, 000 next year—the last year of his contract. However, the new CBA stipulates that a player & team can renegotiate a player’s rookie deal after his third year.  And considering the year Sherman is having, it would seemingly make sense for both sides to rip up this rookie deal and hit the negotiating table.

Back in September, Jason visited this topic and had the following to say about the cornerback marketplace:

The Marketplace

There may be no more difficult market to balance right now than the cornerback market. To say it crashed would be the understatement of the year. Players that many thought could be potentially franchised were signing $4 and $5 million dollar per year contracts. It stands to be seen whether or not this was people like myself simply overvaluing a group of players or if the new spread offenses are convincing teams that overspending on one player is not as important as balance in the secondary.  Sherman’s new contract will likely put that in perspective.

At the top of the market is Revis at $16 million a season.  Not only is Revis’ contract an outlier but for Revis to get that money, which he was desperate to get as it was extremely important to he and his agents to be the highest paid defensive player, he gave up all guaranteed money. Considering he is coming off an ACL injury that is a very risky move for a player.

If the high end market still exists Sherman will probably work from the contracts given to Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Cortland Finnegan who would be the young player comparables. Also in that upper echelon pay group is Champ Bailey who is significantly older and has more of his money tied in incentives, but because of age I don’t consider Bailey to be a consideration.

In addition I think an important contract to look at is the contract Revis had leading into 2013 with the New York Jets. That contract was specifically designed to be a somewhat “fair market” value contract when an outlier existed. In that case it was Asomugha earning over $16 million a year from the Raiders.

 

While I certainly see where Jason is coming from, I view Sherman as one of the NFLs most unique players. Sherman is a Stanford graduate who is supremely confident in his abilities. I believe he understands the business side of the game and that he’ll likely only have one chance to sign a massive on-field deal.  Because of this, I don’t think that the “existence of a high end market” is going to matter. Sherman will create his own market place—he is going to reach for a contract in the new Revis range in terms of annual value, with substantially more in guaranteed money.

Remember, the NFL is now a passing league. Revis proved how valuable he was to the Jets during their back-to-back AFC Championship runs, as the ability to ‘shut down’ half the field can not be understated. If the Seahawks don’t offer Sherman what he feels he’s worth, he won’t hesitate to hit the open market once eligible. And if Sherman does hit the open market, there will be a team that bites and pays Sherman what he feels he’s worth.