The 30 Worst Signings of 2017

This is the time of year where teams start signing extensions and in about a week the official free agency madness begins and generally everyone is very excited as they sign players, but not all those contracts work out. Normally I do these “worst of” lists during the dead part of the NFL offseason, but […]

2017 Potential Cuts: Linebacker

1. Elvis Dumervil, Ravens Cap Saved: $6 million/Cash Saved: $6 million Two years ago Dumervil had 17 sacks and was an All Pro selection, but his performance has plummeted since making the turn past 30. His sack total dropped to 6 in 2015, his lowest figure since 2008, and finished with just 3 sacks this […]

“What We Talkin’ About”: Process, Quality, and Percentages

This is the final draft of the first chapter of Caponomics: Moneyball Thinking for the NFL. We’re sending it out to publishers this week, but a) I’d love to share it with the Over The Cap audience as I’ve been unable to post much since March as I’ve been in the process of re-writing my first […]

Most Likely One-and-Done Contracts of 2016 Free Agency

Each offseason a number of the multi-year contracts signed by free agents the previous offseason are terminated. These contracts may be terminated for a variety of reasons: disappointing performance, injury, team salary cap situation, etc. These factors are, for the most part, unpredictable. However, we can use Expected Contract Value to identify contracts that are […]