This is the final draft of the first chapter of Caponomics: Moneyball Thinking for the NFL. We’re sending it out to publishers this week, but a) I’d love to share it with the Over The Cap audience as I’ve been unable to post much since March as I’ve been in the process of re-writing my first […]
I thought it might be fun during the draft to put up our contract estimates for each player but to also show where they should rank by contract annual value. While we all expect a lot from our draft picks and anyone who is not a star is generally considered a bust, in reality we […]
I’ve already explained how much sense the Chris Hogan move made from the Patriots perspective as he’s the perfect kind of undervalued player with potential that the Patriots have always been able to find under Bill Belichick. But yesterday, March 15th, was an absolutely quintessential Patriots day as they traded defensive end Chandler Jones to […]
I ran across this great video of Wayne Chrebet today and it sparked this thought that I’ll talk about here, but be elaborating on further in an article that I’m writing that will also be one of the final chapters of Caponomics. Belichick has his own formula for his dynasty and that article/chapter will be […]
Expected Contract Outcomes – Expected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions. The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016. A pay cut is treated as […]
This is another lesson in not judging a contract until you know all the figures. I had retweeted someone who said that the Bradford deal for $18 million per year over two years shows how desperate teams are for a quarterback and how much that has overinflated the market. Of course, in a way, he […]
The following table displays the likelihood of each player with a salary cap number of $2 million or more remaining under contract for 2016, as calculated by Expected Contract Value 2.0. Pay cuts and retirements are considered releases for purposes of Expected Contract Value. Players subject to 5th year team options of rookie contracts are not […]