Trades

Giants And Panthers Working on a Trade for Beason?

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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There were some online rumors of Jon Beason potentially headed to New York, which Jay Glazer of Fox Sports just confirmed:

For the Giants the addition of Beason would put incredible pressure on their salary cap yet again. New York only ha $1.37 million in cap room as of Thursday and that was after restructuring the contract of Chris Snee for the second time in a month. Assuming that this trade would occur next week, and likely hinge on the Giants winning against the Eagles, Beason would come over to the team with a cap charge of $705,882 if the trade is executed next week, so they could fit him on the roster for the time being.

The problem for the Giants lies in the earning of the remainder of his roster bonuses on the season. Each week that he is active he earns $109,375 from the Giants. This money is counted on the cap immediately which means the Giants could be liable for about $1.3 million in additional cap charges by the end of the season. I guess it is possible the Panthers could absorb those charges ahead of time if the package for Beason is strong enough.

Beason’s contract voids at the end of the season so from the Panthers point of view getting anything back from Beason is likely worth the trade. Beason had originally signed a 5 year, $50 million dollar contract that contained a signing bonus of $20 million dollars in 2011. Injuries have seen him only play in 8 games since the injury, with his 9th game coming up this Sunday. Beason had already taken a paycut from the Panthers this season due to his lack of playing time the last two seasons. He will count $8 million in dead money against the 2014 cap for the Panthers if traded.

Edit: Per Glazer the deal is now done pending a physical. since its a week earlier than I assumed the immediate cap charge will be $874,081. The $1.3 million in incentives will remain if the contract is left unchanged.

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Per LaCanfora: Jaguars and Cardinals Prepaid Money Before Trades

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

According to Jason LaCanfora the Jacksonville Jaguars and Arizona Cardinals both pre-paid significant portions of Eugene Monroe’s and Levi Brown’s salaries to facilitate a trade to the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers respectively.

This makes the trades much more reasonable for the capped out Steelers and Ravens, whose trades at full prices for these players made little sense. Based on LaCanfora’s tweets my assumption is that the teams have reduced the base salaries to the mandated CBA minimums which should actually result in larger bonuses being paid by the original teams.

In the case of Brown he will have earned 4 weeks of salary at a rate of $4.75 million and the remaining weeks at a base of $715,000. His effective salary will be $1.76 million, meaning the Cardinals should have paid a bonus of $3.086 million to make the contract whole. Teams can not use any bonus mechanisms during the season to avoid proration treatment of these prepayments, unless they were to void the remaining years of the contract. What that means is that the Cardinals should now carry a dead money charge in 2014 of $6,514,191 for Brown. His final cap charge in 2013 for the Cardinals should be $3,539,044. The Steelers should only be responsible for $546,765 in salary cap charges for 2013, making the cap effect of trading for him almost negligible. The signing of Brown looks to have been a disaster for the Cardinals based on the financials now.

In Monroe’s case he will earn $715,000 for the remaining 13 weeks of the season and will have earned $894,118 prior to the trade. It is likely that the Jaguars paid him $2,359,117 in a bonus, half of which should count in 2013 and half in 2014, unless the 2014 season was void allowing it to all accelerate into 2013. Considering Monroe’s contract was set to void it is possible that the Jaguars could have done this rather than carrying dead money in 2014. At worst they will now carry $2.577 million in dead charges for Monroe in 2014. The Ravens should only be responsible for $546,765 in cap charges.

When the trades are made official and the true cap numbers come in we’ll get the correct figures in for both players rather than the guesswork contained in the post.

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Thoughts on Trading in the NFL

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Apparently the NFL is slowly turning into MLB with all the trade activity of the past few weeks. Trades, with the exception of draft day trading, have always been pretty rare in the NFL. In season trades for starters were almost unheard of due to the difficulties in sometimes fitting new players into a system, but the times are changing.

It began with the big trade of Trent Richardson from the Cleveland Browns to the Indianapolis Colts which was followed up by back to back moves that brought starting Left Tackles to  the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. There are plenty of more rumored trades on the horizon and with weeks to go until the trading deadline maybe some more materialize. So why the seeming increase in trade activity?  Let’s look at some of the reasons.

The 2011 CBA plays two major roles in facilitating trades.  The first is the rookie wage scale which applies to Richardson and should play more of a role in future years. I touched on this when looking at the Richardson trade, but essentially the new CBA has eliminated the use of the option bonus and not likely to be earned incentives and escalators from all rookie contracts. While the trade of Richardson was certainly expensive in cap dollars for Cleveland it was a few million less than it would have been in the old CBA. For the acquiring team they only take on reasonable base salaries rather than highly escalated salaries of the old style rookie contracts, giving them reason to  take a chance on what seems to be an underperforming player. I’d expect to see more trades of high draft picks like this in the future.

Perhaps the biggest reason lies in the changing of the spending requirements of the CBA. Under the old CBA team spending was tied to salary cap dollars. Teams were required to spend around 90% of the unadjusted salary cap number. That, in turn, led to less carryover for each NFL team and the utilization of a good chunk of cap space by the time the season began. Trading away a piece that saves you a few million dollars likely meant that you would need to find a way to re-spend those cap dollars to be compliant with the salary cap limits by the end of the season, making you think twice about such a move.

The way that the salary cap is structured for most teams now makes it easier to make these moves. There are no salary cap minimums and the cash minimums are maintained over 4 year periods. You no longer have to sink money into players you do not want in a given year. Now teams can just perform a salary dump while they prepare to rebuild. Huge carryovers give teams added cap space to absorb large accelerated charges with minimal problems and may give teams more room to absorb new players. While the latter was not the case with the Steelers and Ravens, in the future my guess is teams with cap space to spare will be making these trades, and some of those teams would not have existed before 2011.

I tend to think the trades also show the more progressive movements and general youth in the front offices. I certainly think there was a time when the NFL front office looked at everyone not in the NFL as a complete outsider to the NFL system. What they did or suggested would never work because they have never been on a sideline or in a huddle. Much of the league has moved away from that. Many GM’s in the NFL come from financial management backgrounds much moreso than football backgrounds. They have a much different approach to managing contracts and the risk management associated with cap structure than before.

In my years of primarily following the Jets salary cap I used to note how the team was using guaranteed salary in lieu of large signing bonuses to get players under contract. They were not the only  team doing this by any means, but it was a very different approach  than the traditional “give a star a monster bonus” approach that was used for many years. Teams like Tampa Bay have taken it a step further and eliminated signing bonuses entirely. While these contracts can be a problem if the players fail to perform they are all very open ended for trade possibilities. The dead money of the trade in these scenarios is limited giving teams every opportunity to move a player. While it has not happened yet, I would imagine it is something that may happen more in the future. It’s an example of the league moving forward.

We see more openness in the NFL now than ever before. The opinions of those in the media or sitting in the seats maybe has some merit to it. Teams are embracing statistical analysis and “outside the NFL” evaluations and thoughts. That would have been unheard of 15 years ago.  Teams are starting in analytical departments, giving credence to various people who don’t work in the NFL but immerse themselves in a facet of the NFL such as statistics. That type of change also means more outside the box thinking that sees the regularity of trades in the NBA and MLB and begins to think “why not” the NFL.  I mean if you can sign a player off the street in September and get him up to speed why not simply execute a trade?  It’s just a matter of making the financials work and teams are getting more advanced with that every year.

Now for all I know this will be the end of the trades for this season in the NFL, but I think we are beginning to see the  start of a new direction in the NFL, one that is open to trades and constructing contracts to facilitate them.

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Steelers Trade for T Levi Brown

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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One day after the Baltimore Ravens made a trade to attempt to fix their offensive line, the 0-4 Steelers got into the mix trading for Arizona Cardinals starting LT Levi Brown.

This is a trade that is hard to make sense of from either side. Arizona, who is 2-2 and could easily be 3-1, will be moving their starter in what is essentially a salary dump and I have to imagine an admission that the offense is not getting any worse without him there. The Cardinals must have planned on releasing him next season and this at least saves them the balance of his salary for the year. Arizona will save $3,623,353 in cap and cash space by trading Brown, who they has signed just last year to a contract that contained a $7 million dollar signing bonus. He will count for $4.2 million in dead money against the Cardinals 2014 salary cap.

Pittsburgh will now further compromise their salary cap with the addition of Brown. Brown’s cap number will add $3.6 million to Pittsburgh’s current payroll. As of Tuesday they only had $1.86 million in cap space meaning they will need to create nearly significant cap space to execute the trade. The Steelers have already gone to the restructure route multiple times in the last two years which has left them with a difficult cap situation again in 2014, where they are estimated to already be a few million over the cap with just 40 players under contract. The addition of Brown will add another $6.25 million to the teams payroll in 2014 plus whatever money is pushed from 2013 to 2014 via a restructure.Possible restructure candidates could be Ike Taylor or Troy Polamalu while they could also consider extending Ryan Clark for some cap relief.

If Brown fails the Steelers can cut him next year with no penalties, but at 0-4 its hard to see why the team would choose to waste $3.6 million in cap room on a player that has played poorly in Arizona. Brown had to be aware of the fact that the Cardinals could have cut him next season and made him a free agent so he was not a player who felt added protection based on his contract and wasn’t giving 100% as is sometimes the case. Maybe this proves to be a better system for Brown or acts as a wakeup call but it just seems like too much to invest considering the issues with the teams’ salary cap moving forward and their status in 2013.

View Levi Brown’s Contract and Salary Cap Page

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Thoughts on Browns and Colts Trade Involving Trent Richardson

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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The big news of the day came down when the Cleveland Browns traded RB Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. This is an extremely unique trade for a number of reasons. One is that in season trades for starting quality players is an event that never happens. Secondly a team giving up on a first round pick this quickly is basically a non-existent occurrence which really , for the first time, illustrates the power of the new CBA rookie wage scale.

From the Colts perspective we can come up with a handful of reasons as to why they made this trade. The Colts recently lost their starting running back to injury and admitted that they needed to bring in another player to take over the job, presumably splitting downs with Ahmad Bradshaw. Colts ownership has been committed to a fast franchise rebuilding, post Peyton Manning, and does not want to see their team take a step back from the 2012 surprising playoff campaign.

This is a team that is not shy about trading draft picks and pulled a similar move last season when trading for CB Vontae Davis from the Miami Dolphins. Davis was a former first round pick of the Miami Dolphins that had more or less fallen out of favor with the organization by 2012. The Colts quickly pounced believing that first round talent made available is worth the price, which in Davis’ case was a 2nd round pick. This trade played out in front of everyone on the show Hard Knocks.

This is a similar situation where the Colts were likely blinded by the potential of grabbing a player just one year removed from being the 3rdoverall pick in the draft. Richardson’s rookie season was disappointing with an extremely low yard per carry and in my own evaluation some of the lowest running back generated yards in the NFL. From Indianapolis’ point of view they have to see that as a byproduct of the Browns terrible offensive situation which is far different than that of the Colts.

Financially the move makes sense for the Colts. The Colts had $2.98 million in cap room left to spend and Richardson will only cost the team $1,165,900 in both cash and cap this season. Assuming he replaces a player making $405,000 the net cap charge is just a bit over $808,000. So the cost itself is nothing for the year.

But moreso than that, if you are a team that believes that they are getting back a first round draft pick this becomes a financial bonanza for the team. The Browns have already paid Richardson $13,341,672 in the form of a signing bonus. The Colts only responsibility is $6.6 million in guaranteed salary over the next three years. That is essentially the same guarantee that would be given to the 23rd pick in the 2014 draft. As long as the Colts grade Richardson above that draft slot they are getting a bargain on the price.

From the Browns perspective this is a bit of a stunning move. Besides the incredibly high sunk cost they had in Richardson they will carry a dead money charge for him of $6,670,836 in 2014. It also marks a complete give up on the 2012 draft which was supposed to re-shape the Browns franchise. In that draft they drafted Richardson and QB Brandon Weeden in the first round. Today they benched Weeden and then turned around and traded Richardson.

The Browns side of this shows the power that the new CBA has given teams in regards to rookies and there are a number of reasons that they could take this move on from a financial perspective. The first reason obviously is the wage scale itself. While the charges paid to Richardson and the remaining dead money is high, it is nothing compared to the old draft payscale. The last third round pick of the old system was Gerald McCoy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. McCoy earned $15,792,500 in bonus money as a rookie. In the second year of his contract the Buccaneers paid him a $9,975,000 option bonus. All of this would have been paid well before the trade date. Had the team traded McCoy they would have been left with a dead money charge of $10,980,000 in the year following the trade. The team trading for him would have taken on $15.34 million in cap charges for the three year period. Remember that these are 2010 dollars meaning they would have been much higher in 2012.

The other CBA area that this highlights is the removal of the salary cap floor. In the old CBA teams were required to spend up to a certain level in salary cap dollars. More often this eliminated gigantic carryover dollars from year to year leaving most teams with a similar unadjusted salary cap. The new CBA removed this rule and replaced it with cash spending limits over four year periods. A team like the Browns was able to carry over $14 million dollars in 2012 and maintain a cap payroll of over $20 million in space, which will be rolled over to 2013 to easily absorb the financial impact of the move.  This would have been far more difficult before 2011.

While some may see this as giving up on the season, much depends on the internal grade they are giving to Richardson. Like I mentioned above Richardson was not productive in 2012. His style of running is a throwback to an older generation that could feature players like Jerome Bettis gaining small amounts of yards but pounding the ball into the line multiple times a game. Richardson was slow to the line and never avoided contact. He was closer to a Jamal Lewis in the later years than a real game changer like Adrian Peterson.

You have to value players as assets and if there is a team willing to give you back a first round pick it’s a move you need to make. If it was possible to forget that Richardson was the third overall pick in the draft he would have been considered a replacement level player likely destined for injury due to absorbing more punishment than needed.  The longer you wait on those players the less you will receive in return.

Looking back through some high pick trades/busts would show that lesson. Aaron Curry was selected 4th  overall in 2009 by the Seattle Seahawks.  By the end of the 2010 season the book was written on him and it was well known the staff wanted him gone. The Seahawks received a 7th round pick for Curry just two years removed from the draft and they had to pre-pay a large portion of his salary. Last season the Rams traded former number 2 overall pick Jason Smith to the New York Jets. Again Smith had fallen out of favor with an organization and coaching staff. They had to prepay a large portion of his salary to entice the Jets to make the trade. The Jets gave up Wayne Hunter, a journeyman tackle, for Smith.

With the Browns realizing how bad their offense was it was only a matter of time before new things were tried in 2013. Weeden was step one and Richardson would have been step two at some point. Once that occurs his value plummets barring a turnaround in performance.  Even if he wasn’t benched it becomes two years removed from a draft and teams would hear all offseason about how the Browns don’t want him anymore. You go from earning back a 1st to a 2nd or maybe far worse. Remember that cutting Richardson could never happen because his salary was fully guaranteed with no offsets so they had to find a trade partner to move him.

While this may look like the Browns blowing it up my feeling is they believe that they will get similar performance from a Willis McGahee type player that they would from Richardson. Even if he doesn’t all that happens is the Browns will improve their draft position. The st6rategy here is to amass draft picks and have the ammunition needed to draft a QB even if they fail to be bad enough to pick one themselves. If not they should be in a position to grab good offensive talent, an area where the Browns are woefully short on spending. All the cap room they are creating could allow them to go into free agency and look at players like Jay Cutler and surround him with high draft picks, which may be Plan B at this point.

The other aspect that this trade brings up is the short leash which players should be on under the new CBA. Under the old CBA salary cap charges dictated playing time and the fact that you had to hold onto busts for a long time. That CBA helped players such as David Carr and Mark Sanchez earn lucrative extensions despite mediocre performance. It allowed for players like Joey Harrington to get way more opportunities than the play deserved. Teams are no longer financially bound to these high drafy picks and it plays into the fact that teams should be trying new things when the players fail.

This is more in respect to Weeden than Richardson, but it is a smart football decision to sit him and see if there is anything else on the roster. At the worst you are stuck with a player on a salary that is representative of a backup salary. It is easy to justify putting him on the bench. It’s why is so mind boggling that a team like the Jaguars is so desperate to get something out of Blaine Gabbert. His contract doesn’t force him onto a team anymore yet the Jaguars are treating it like it does.

So while it has been a tough decade to be a Browns fans today’s moves show me an organization that at least “gets it” in regards to rookie management. They understand the new CBA and what it means. Evaluate what you have and if you don’t like it find a trade partner before they realize you are abandoning ship. Cleveland moved on today and that is a great thing for that city.

For the Colts this carries low risk financially but they need Richardson to play like a top level talent to make it worth it,. The team has many holes and I’d be a little worried about the trades of high picks. They have amassed large cap space to spend and Id expect them to be active in free agency again. They were big spenders in 2013, but long term building through free agency is often not the way to build a perennial contender. Richardson is young so the age isnt an issue here but he has to perform better than their draft slot they gave up to make this a good decision from their side rather than an impulse splashy move that grabs headlines and does little to improve the team.

We’ll get the cap figures updated tomorrow to reflect the trade.

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Kirk Cousins and the Cost of Trading for a Backup Legend

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Driving in today I flipped over to Mike and Mike on ESPN and heard them having a discussion about Kirk Cousins the backup QB of the Washington Redskins and how valuable a piece he is to the Redskins. The discussion centered around a comment made by Peter King that insinuated that a team drafting in the upper half of the first round should consider giving up their pick (I believe the number they used was 7) for him. I immediately thought that would make an interesting discussion.

Cousins has clearly fallen into the “backup legend” category where we all get so enamored with the position and the prospect of finding a great talent to start for our team. This time last season Cousins was almost an afterthought. Cousins was drafted with the 7th pick in the 4th round of the 2012 draft. This wasn’t Geno Smith falling from the top half of the 1st to the 2nd round as Cousins was projected to go anywhere from the late 2nd to the early 4th, which is exactly where he went. The scouting on him was pretty consistent: efficient player but will never be more than a game manager.

The draft pick itself was considered questionable at the time because the Redskins had just given up a draft fortune to select Robert Griffin III with the 2nd pick in the draft. To select another QB when you had just parted with so many picks seemed like a poor use of limited assets. Cousins began to create a little buzz in the preseason where he completed nearly 58% of his passes at over 13 YPC, but when Cousins was elevated from 3rd string to 2nd string over Rex Grossman more than just a few were surprised.

Once RGIII got injured Cousins got his regular season opportunity and yet another “backup legend” was born. Cousins first led a comeback against eventual champion Baltimore Ravens and then was terrific in his lone start throwing for 329 yards against the Cleveland Browns. Last night Cousins went 6 of 7 for 52 yards in a preseason game which sparked the discussion about his upside.  How quickly everyone forgets just where the young QB was a year ago as he battled for a backup job.

The best comparison one could probably for Cousins would be the career of Matt Schaub. Schaub was drafted with the 27th pick of the 3rd round in the 2004 NFL draft by the Atlanta Falcons. Schaub was brought in to be a backup to Mike Vick. Vick was a phenomenon at the time. The 1st overall pick in 2001, Vick was the most electric player in the NFL and had a reputation that far exceeded the actual play on the field. There were also questions about his durability making a backup seem like a bigger need than for other teams. Schaub was good in the preseason  and got one start in his Atlanta career where he threw for 298 yards against the Patriots. Schaub became the “backup legend”.

The price for Schaub was nothing like was being suggested on Mike and Mike. The Texans gave up two second round draft picks to acquire him. Schaub has gone on to have a solid but unspectacular career and has also been dogged by injuries at times. But he has probably been the most successful of the star backups. Other recent names who turned preseason and less than one season samples into starting jobs have been Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel , and AJ Feeley.  None were successful.  Kolb, Cassel, and Feeley were all acquired via trade while Fitzpatrick and Anderson were signed off their samples.

Trading a high first pick for a backup QB is a recipe for disaster. Part of the benefit of the top 15 pick now is the slotted pay scale. It allows teams an opportunity to mold a cap friendly roster around a number of potential superstar young talent. When you trade that draft pick for a “backup legend” it’s not just a draft pick being given up, but often large sums of money. Assuming a team was to trade for Cousins next season they would only have Cousins under his rookie contract for two seasons. If they waited one more season it would only be for one. After that he hits free agency.

When you make that trade commitment a financial one goes along with it. In essence you have traded the new rookie wage scale for the old one. For the group above here are the awarded salaries of the more recent backups to riches stories:

Player

Total

3 Year Cash

Kolb

$63,500,000

$32,000,000

Cassel

$63,000,000

$40,500,000

Fitzpatrick

$59,000,000

$29,800,000

Schaub

$48,000,000

$30,000,000

Anderson

$24,000,000

$24,000,000

Of all the deals Cassel was far and away the worst, which was just a sign of how inept the Chiefs front office was. Cassel has almost no pedigree at all (he was a 7th round pick) and they gave the farm away for him. At least in Fitzpatrick’s case there was no trade involved and the three year money total was smaller.

Of course the other question is whether or not a team would even consider giving up the first round selection for him. This is not the Bears trading for Jay Cutler. Most of the teams that would consider trading for Cousins are those same teams that have a scouting department that gave him a 3rd round or worse grade.  Maybe he has done enough in the preseason and limited game action to up that grade but it’s unlikely without an extensive look that a teams’ scouts would recommend giving him a 1st round grade, let alone a top 10 grade, especially factoring in the cost. Plus there are going to be teams that say Mike Shanahan runs a very QB friendly offense that turned players like Brian Griese and Jake Plummer into adequate players.

While we often all buy into the fantasy aspect of the NFL and the throwing away of draft selections it has been some time since teams decided to throw first round picks at lower regarded talent. I believe the last two big ones were Rob Johnson in 1998 and Trent Green in 2001. Johnson was a 4th round pick with only one start under his belt which led to the Bills trading a 1st and 4th for his services. It is a trade so bad that it is still talked about to this day. Green was a journeyman type QB who was displaced by injury and replaced by Kurt Warner. At the time I think the feeling was that Green was just as good and that the Chiefs were getting a steal for a 1st round pick. Green would have a decent career with the Chiefs, who really have gone overboard with the trading for QB’s dating back to Joe Montana.

Really unless you have the exceptional pedigree teams are not going to throw away a first rounder and all that money on a player.  Here are some of the potential starter  trades since the Green trade to Kansas City.

Name

Draft Round

Games Started

Trade Package
Jay Cutler

1

37

two 1’s, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton
Drew Bledsoe

1

123

1st* round pick
Carson Palmer

1

97

1st* and 2nd*
Donovan McNabb

1

142

2nd and 4th*
Alex Smith

1

75

2nd and 2nd/3rd*
Kevin Kolb

2

7

2nd* and DRC
Matt Schaub

3

2

1st round swap (2 slots) and two 2nds
Charlie Whitehurst

3

0

2nd round swap (20 slots) and 3rd*
AJ Feeley

5

7

2nd round pick
Matt Hasselbeck

6

0

1st round swap (7 slots) and 3rd
Matt Cassel

7

15

2nd (plus Mike Vrabel to KC)
* means actual slot unknown at time of trade

The marketplace really has been the 2nd round for players that do not have that elite pedigree. Of the younger talent, Cutler, who came from a Shanahan system and looked like one of the greatest prospects on the planet, is the only one to garner a fortune in compensation, losing the 11th and 18th pick in the 1st round. Kolb cost a 2nd and a player which is more or less the equivalent to the two 2nd rounders traded for Schaub. Alex Smith could be the same.

So it would be stunning, based on pat history, if any team in the NFL drafting in the top 10 would even consider trading for Cousins at that price. I tend to think that there may be more reservation as well due to the recent series of bust signings on questionable players with the small sample sizes. Over the next two seasons Kolb, Cassel, Fitzpatrick, and Matt Flynn will carry $23,950,000 in dead money for their respective former teams.

Flynn, who had backed up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and flashed in relief, expected to be involved in a bidding war of sorts when the Packers let him hit free agency. Teams were much more cautious with Flynn, a 7th round selection, than they had been with other players. Eventually he signed with Seattle for a base value of $19.5 million over three years. That was still good money, but not Kolb or Cassel money. Flynn of course was traded after just one season when unheralded rookie Russell Wilson outplayed Flynn by a significant margin in training camp and the preseason.

But right now I think many of us are going a little overboard on the expectations for Cousins in the trade market. Players don’t go from being 4th round draft picks to top 10 commodities based on a start and some preseason games. Maybe if he had close to a full season of work someone with a late 1st round pick might make a move, but the market is really a 2nd rounder and that’s assuming teams have not grown cold to the prospect of trading for someone else’s bench player rather than just  drafting one themselves. The financial commitment can be so large when you trade for a QB and is there really that much that separates Kevin Kolb from Blaine Gabbert?  Gabbert is certainly cheaper. Neither has been very good.  Gabbert had and probably has more upside.

I would think applying the Schaub test is really the right way to look at Cousins. Schaub has been the QB on two teams that made the playoffs and has twice gone to the Pro Bowl. He has started 79 games in 6 years and won 44 of them. Just a year after signing an extension many fans can’t wait to get rid of him because they feel the flaws, more or less the lack of physical tools that helped push him to the late 3rd round in the first place,  will keep them from winning a championship. In hindsight would you have been happy giving up the 7th pick in the NFL draft and somewhere around $60 million dollars for Schaub?  Probably not.

Now none of this is to say that Cousins can’t be better than Schaub. For all I know Cousins may be the next Tom Brady, who the Patriots wisely chose to stick with over Bledsoe in 2001. But as a teams’ GM or cap manager you have to weigh the risks associated with such a trade. You are losing four low cost seasons of a tremendous upside draft pick and replacing it with a high financial commitment for a player just a few years ago you felt did not have the tools to warrant a 2nd or 3rd round selection.  To pull that top 10 pick the player needs to be proven which means at least two years of significant meaningful game experience. Otherwise the 2nd round maximum is as far as a team should ever be willing to go.

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Buccaneers trade for Bears OT Gabe Carimi

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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According to Adam Schefter the Chicago Bears have traded disgruntled OT Gabe Carimi to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 6th round draft pick.

The trade illustrates the changing landscape of the NFL caused by the new CBA slotting system. Carimi, selected 29th overall in the 2011 draft, only spent two seasons with Chicago prior to the trade. The Bears will only absorb $907,918 in dead money in each of the next two seasons for making the trade while the Buccaneers will pick up $1 ,016,458 in salary in 2013 and $1,337,187 in salary in 2014. The Buccaneers will also own Carimi’s rights in 2015 if they choose to pick up a 5th year option that will be equal to the average salary of the 3rd and 25th highest offensive linemen in the NFL next season. In contrast the 29th pick in the 2010 NFL draft, Kyle Wilson of the Jets, would have cost the Jets $1,097,400 in dead cap charge in the year of the trade and $2,194,800 the year thereafter had they traded him, making the cost somewhat prohibitive to the team that drafted him.

Carimi’s contract calls for offseason bonuses in 2014 worth $692,187 and none of his salary is guaranteed in 2014 so this is likely a 1 year audition for the Buccaneers. Carimi’s salary in 2013 is fully guaranteed so as long as he reports to the team. If Carimi continues to be unhappy and fails to report the Buccaneers will now be able to recover bonus money paid to Carimi by the Bears, so all things considered this is a low risk trade for the team.

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