2016 NFL Free Agency: Wide Receiver Overview

Posted on November 5, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

Last week we looked at the upcoming free agent running backs and this week we will continue our run up to the offseason with a look at who is available at wide receiver. Though we don’t have the top line talent available this year at wide rceiver there are certainly some viable second and third targets with upside. We’ll look at the players projected stats for the year and where the biggest name players may slot into the salary ranges at the position in 2016

Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Jeffery missed 4 games this season and is still on pace for over 1,300 yards this year. He has been a dominant receiver in every sense of the word with over 1,400 yards in 2013 and 1,100 yards in 2014. He’s done it with two quarterbacks (Jay Cutler and Josh McCown) and both with and without help from a secondary target in the offense. He is everything you want in a receiver with great size at 6’4”, good hands, and youth.

Jeffery ranks in our domination index (a measure of how much that player accounts for production at the position) around a 225 on a per game basis, which means he essentially counts for over 50% of the Bears offense at receiver. The only player more important to a team’s receiving core is Julio Jones of the Falcons at a 240. Continue reading 2016 NFL Free Agency: Wide Receiver Overview »

2016 NFL Free Agency: Running Back Overview

Posted on October 27, 2015October 27, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

Nearly halfway through the 2015 season, we are now at the point where we can start looking forward to free agency in 2016 based on this year’s current performances. This week we will take a brief look at the players who may project to be the top unrestricted free agents this season at the running back position and estimate some potential ranges for a new contract in 2016.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers

Martin has come from nowhere to produce big this season for the Buccaneers. Martin is averaging over 90 yards a game and is on pace for over 1,400 yards this year. Martin’s career arc is relatively unique. He exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2012, rushing for 1,454 yards and being a threat in the passing game. He was poor in 2013 before an injury ended his season and landed in the doghouse in 2014 while seemingly dealing with more bumps and bruises. To come back to the 1,400 yard level after that is not that normal. Continue reading 2016 NFL Free Agency: Running Back Overview »

A Look at the 2012 Rookie Options

Posted on April 28, 2015May 4, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

Recently I have been getting some questions on the 2012 rookie option years so I thought it made sense to get a post together on it and update it as the options gets picked up. For those unfamiliar with the rookie option system, every first round pick in the draft signs a four year contract with a team option for a fifth season. The team option must be exercised between the end of the 2014 regular season and May 3, 2015 at 4PM. The value of the option depends upon the position of the player and if the player was drafted in the top 10. Once the option is exercised it is guaranteed for injury. If the player is still on the roster on the first day of the 2016 League Year the option will be fully guaranteed. If the team fails to exercise the option the player will become a free agent in 2016.

Exercised

20 players had their options picked up by their respective teams. The players are Andrew Luck (Colts), Robert Griffin III (Redskins), Matt Kalil (Vikings), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Luke Kuechley (Panthers), Stephon Gilmore (Bills), Dontari Poe (Chiefs), Fletcher Cox (Eagles), Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Michael Brockers (Rams), Quinton Coples (Jets), Dre Kirkpatrick (Bengals), Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Kendall Wright (Titans), Chandler Jones (Patriots), Riley Reiff (Lions), David DeCastro (Steelers), Dont’a Hightower (Patriots), Kevin Zeitler (Bengals) and Harrison Smith (Vikings).

Andrew Luck is considered the best young QB in the NFL so picking up his option was the most likely event of the year.

Washington exercised the option on Robert Griffin despite the injury history. Though they could have franchised him if he had a great season the uncertainty associated with the tag process as well as the potential cost likely led to this. Expect them to cross their fingers that he stays healthy.

I wasn’t sure if the Vikings would use this on Kalil due to the $11 million price tag as I think it makes working out a reasonable long term deal more difficult. Like the RGIII move this is an investment protection.

The Dolphins had tried to sign Tannehill to a contract extension, but with no movement on that front that protected their interest with the 5th year option.

Kuechley is arguably the best linebacker in the NFL and it was a given his option would be exercised. This is a steep price for an inside linebacker but they will likely address that by working out an extension sooner rather than later.

With the recent increase in salary at the corner spot using the option for Stephon Gilmore was a logical decision.If he has a strong year under Rex Ryan his salary potential will skyrocket.

Poe just missed out on the top 10 which is a big loss in pay. He probably won’t be happy next season, but the Chiefs have plenty of time to address that after the 2015 season is over.

Fletcher Cox developed into one of the best 34 DEs in the NFL, so this made sense for Philadelphia. Cox is rumored to be involved in a possible trade package on draft day. The option year does transfer with the player in the event of a trade. If not traded I would expect an extension sometime in the summer.

Michael Floyd is arguably the best receiver in Arizona so they had no reason to decline his option. His chances for an extension might hinge on how he and the others around him play this season.

Brockers was a player I was on the fence about and I think this is more or less an insurance play by the Rams. There is little downside to picking it up so they protect themselves in the event he plays more and ups his stock for next season. If all things stay constant he likely won’t play next year at this number.

Coples is a hard player to grasp. There are times he looks terrific and times he looks like he doesn’t care. The pass rusher market was way down for player like Coples last season so it is somewhat surprising that the Jets picked this up. It may mean the new staff wants to see him without a contract dangling in front of him as added motivation.

Kirkpatrick is likely to see more time this season and the Bengals cant chance losing a young player at a position where they are getting older.

Ingram has only started 12 games in his three year career and has been injury prone, so this was a bit of more of a surprise. He has flashed when healthy and considering the Chargers have limited long term depth on the team he may have benefitted from the situation. He’ll need to be productive to keep the option at its current value.

Wright has shown an ability to be a very good receiver despite the poor QB play. On a team with such poor offensive talent this was a must to do.

Chandler Jones is a dominant player for the Patriots and should be a fixture for the next five seasons.

Reiff has started 31 games over the last two seasons for Detroit and graded out well per Pro Football Focus. Keeping a young player on the line was a must for Detroit.

DeCastro is a Pro Bowl caliber player and a no-brainer for the Steelers to pick up.

Hightower has developed into one of the better interior linebackers in the NFL so this should have been an easy choice.

The only question that the Bengals likely had with Zeitler was the cost based on position as that can possibly make an extension a touch more difficult, but they had to protect themselves by picking this up.

Smith is one of the best safeties in the NFL. It was obvious that the Vikings would pick this up unless a long term contract has been worked out sooner.

Declined

The following players had their options declined: Morris Claiborne (cowboys), Mark Barron (Rams), Bruce Irvin (Seahawks), Shea McClellin (Bears), Nick Perry (Packers), Whitney Mercilus (Texans), and Doug Martin (Buccaneers). Each player will be a free agent in 2016. Here are some brief thoughts on the players:

While there is much to be said about protecting an investment, it made almost no sense to protect Claiborne. Claiborne looks to be at best a 3^rd or 4^th corner and his injury potential made it too risky to consider a $11M+ option.

The cost for Barron was far too expensive for a third wheel type of player.

Irvin not having his option picked up surprised me. I thought he was solid and there would be no reason to pss on it. This decision was likely made due to the decline in payments being made to linebackers this offseason and knowing they can save money long term by not picking it up. Its the same path I thought the Jets would have gone with Coples, but was surprised Seattle went there with Irvin.

McClellin has been essentially useless for Chicago and there is no need to pick up an additional year.

Perry has only started 15 games for Green Bay and they have looked for other options due to his disappointing play. They won’t sink $7.7 million in him on a one year contract.

I thought Mercilus’ option might have been picked up as Clowney injury protection, but again the cost was likely too high, especially in light of the declining market for mid grade rushers at the position.

Martin has fallen off the face of the earth and there is no reason to pay him more than he would earn as a free agent even if he had a terrific season.

Ineligible

Trent Richardson was traded by the Browns and later released by the Colts, which officially terminated his rookie contract. He is currently signed with the Raiders.

Justin Blackmon has spent most of his career suspended. He should have to honor his missed seasons if he is ever reinstated. Even if he did not have to honor them he would be a restricted free agent making the option far too expensive.

Brandon Weeden was released by Cleveland. He signed a low cost contract with the Cowboys.

AJ Jenkins was traded to Kansas City and later released. He is currently out of the NFL.

David Wilson retired from the NFL due to injuries.

The 2012 Rookie Option Tracker

Pick	Player	Pos	Team	Cost	Exercised
1	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	$16,155,000	YES
2	Robert Griffin III	QB	Redskins	$16,155,000	YES
3	Trent Richardson	RB	NA	$0	NA
4	Matt Kalil	T	Vikings	$11,096,000	YES
5	Justin Blackmon	WR	Jaguars	$0	NA
6	Morris Claiborne	CB	Cowboys	$11,082,000	NO
7	Mark Barron	S	Rams	$8,263,000	NO
8	Ryan Tannehill	QB	Dolphins	$16,155,000	YES
9	Luke Kuechly	LB	Panthers	$11,058,000	YES
10	Stephon Gilmore	CB	Bills	$11,082,000	YES
11	Dontari Poe	DT	Chiefs	$6,146,000	YES
12	Fletcher Cox	DE	Eagles	$7,799,000	YES
13	Michael Floyd	WR	Cardinals	$7,320,000	YES
14	Michael Brockers	DT	Rams	$6,146,000	YES
15	Bruce Irvin	LB	Seahawks	$7,751,000	NO
16	Quinton Coples	LB	Jets	$7,751,000	YES
17	Dre Kirkpatrick	CB	Bengals	$7,507,000	YES
18	Melvin Ingram	LB	Chargers	$7,751,000	YES
19	Shea McClellin	LB	Bears	$7,751,000	NO
20	Kendall Wright	WR	Titans	$7,320,000	YES
21	Chandler Jones	DE	Patriots	$7,799,000	YES
22	Brandon Weeden	QB	NA	$0	NA
23	Riley Reiff	T	Lions	$8,070,000	YES
24	David DeCastro	G	Steelers	$8,070,000	YES
25	Dont’a Hightower	LB	Patriots	$7,751,000	YES
26	Whitney Mercilus	LB	Texans	$7,751,000	NO
27	Kevin Zeitler	G	Bengals	$8,070,000	YES
28	Nick Perry	LB	Packers	$7,751,000	NO
29	Harrison Smith	S	Vikings	$5,278,000	YES
30	AJ Jenkins	WR	NA	$0	NA
31	Doug Martin	RB	Buccaneers	$5,621,000	NO
32	David Wilson	RB	NA	$0	NA

Revis Comes Back to the Jets

Posted on March 11, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

In a scene right out of professional wretling, Darrelle Revis and the Jets have mended fences after a two year split and Revis is “coming home” to wash out the taste of the last two years. According to Manish Mehta its a big deal with $48 million in the first three years and $70 million as the total contract value.

Breakdown of Revis contract: $16M FULLY gtd, $17M fully guaranteed, $15M ($6M fully gtd), $11M, $11M #nyj
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) March 11, 2015

It’s a bit of an odd contract in that the last two years are actually designed to push the value of the contract down from an annual value perspetive, which is often not the case, at least not to this extent. It gives the Jets a sense of a “compromise” on the deal while also being some type of bagaining chip in future negotiations with younger players who would be productive at the back end. Revis can also claim he took less than his worth to come back to the team he loved. At heart this is a 3 year deal for $16 million, the number Revis always craves. In many ways the deal is the contract that Revis wanted, at east on the front end, in 2010 when the relationship between the team and player began to go bad.

Speaking as a Jets fan I think this was a move the team had to make. This isn’t a football move. This is about recapturing a fanbase that was disgusted with the Jets the last two years, primarily in 2014. It is well known that Revis made an attempt to come back last season to the Jets but the Jets wouldnt really even take the call. When things got so bad at the end of the year owner Woody Johnson basically came out and said if he knew Revis would have played for $12 million last season he would have made the move for him. That is going to open the Jets up to tampering charges since Revis was under contract at the time, but coming off the darkest run since 95-96 he had little option.

Because the Jets spent no money the last two seasons and built up a giant salary cap surplus the move really has no negative repercussions financially. They have so much space that adding one player at $16M per year in cap dollars isn’t a major problem, especially with no viable QB on the roster that will be due an extension. By the time they find a QB Revis will either be off the team or making $11 million per year, a much more manageable number.

Revis played his hand perfectly last year, which was something I talked about when he signed with New England. The cornerback market was depressed and Revis came off a lame season in Tampa Bay that saw limited interest. He wisely took what he expected to be a one year contract (though he almost outsmarted himself by continuing to aim for the $16 million metric) to allow Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman reset the cornerback market. The minute you saw Byron Maxwell and Kareem Jackson getting huge money you knew Revis was going to score big if he got to free agency.

We’ll see where things go for the Jets, but their new front office is off to the kind of start that will keep them popular with fans and media of the team. Thats important to surviving the town and making it look like you are making every effort to get better fast. The team has made moves that are reminiscent of the Mike Tannenbaum run in 2008 and 2009 that completely remade the image of the team from the Herman Edwards/Chad Pennington group to the Rex Ryan/Revis group that nearly made the Super Bowl. Nobody can predict the future but it’s at least a start in changing the culture of the team.

Rookie Option Updates

Posted on April 18, 2014May 7, 2014 by Jason Fitzgerald

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We learned last night that the first set of rookie options from the 2011 draft class were starting to be picked up, so I thought it might be useful for us to have a running list of the players who are having their contracts extended by one season. The rookie option year is a new rule in the CBA that allows teams to extend the term of a first round draft choice by one season by exercising an option between the end of the players third season and May 3 of the following League Year.

The cost of the option year is dependent upon where a player was drafted and what position he plays. If the player was drafted in the top 10 picks of the draft his one year contract will equal the transition tender for the NFL in 2013. If the player is selected outside of the top 10 then his one year contract is calculated the same way that the transition tag is calculated except the 3rd through 25th highest salaries are used rather than the top 10 highest. All offensive linemen and all linebackers are each grouped as one position and are not specialized (i.e a tackle is paid same as a center or a inside linebacker is paid same as a 34 outside linebacker).

Once the option is exercised the salary is guaranteed for injury only. So if a player is injured in 2014 and unable to pass his physical the following season his entire option salary is protected. However the player can be released at any time up to the start of the 2015 League Year without penalty if he is healthy enough to play football. If the player is on the roster on the first day of the 2015 League Year (first day of free agency) the salary becomes fully guaranteed for all terminations.

There is nothing that prohibits a team from negotiating another contract with the player following the option pickup. In most cases teams will pick the option up to protect their negotiating rights with the player, which is an indication of how little teams really think of injury guarantees. If the option was fully guaranteed there would be a much different approach taken by teams. If teams do not exercise the option they can still use the Franchise or Transition tag the following season, but in most cases that will be more expensive.

What could be interesting is if teams internally calculate out the Transition tag number in 2015 using the 2010 through 2014 cap figures currently available to see if there is a potential decline in the value next year. Being that the salary cap is now rising that would be near impossible, but if a team like the Cardinals estimated that the cost for a cornerback in 2015 could be $9.5 million they may opt to just use the Transition tag in 2015 on Patrick Peterson rather than locking him up at slightly over $10 million now. This would not be applicable to players selected outside the top 10 and would also eliminate a team from using the tag on another veteran player on the team.

My own opinion on the tag is that, while there is no downside to using it, if you have a player you like but not at the option value it is better to try to work out a reasonable extension without having that factored into the equation. Once you lock a player in at say $6 or $7 million it becomes much harder to work out a long term contract valued at $4 or $5. We have seen that often enough with the Franchise tag impeding progress on a long term deal and that can be a detriment to both sides.

Contrary to popular opinion most of the players who will have the option picked up will earn more in their 5th year and have a higher 5th year cap charge than the rookies that were drafted in the old CBA system. So they will have some leverage to negotiate favorable terms if they are a good player. This is not the case for the top 6 or 7 picks who will earn less and have less leverage than their 2010 counterparts. So the option is not a block to a player friendly extension in almost all cases.

The following chart gives a breakdown of the tag values we do know and the players who are eligible for the option. As more options are picked up I’ll update the table.

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Looking Ahead to The First Rookie Option Years

Posted on December 12, 2013December 12, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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With 2013 rapidly drawing to a close we will soon get our first look at one of the new provisions in the CBA- the 5th Year Option for first rounders drafted in 2011. The 2011 CBA agreement limited all contracts to a period of four years, including those of first round draft picks. In previous CBA’s the standard contract length was five or six seasons for a first round pick. The make up for the difference every player drafted in the first round has an option year in his contract that allows a team to extend the term of the contract from four to five years.

The option itself must be exercised between the end of the 2013 NFL regular season (December 29, 2013) and May 3, 2014. The option year is guaranteed for injury only until the first day of the 2015 League Year at which time it will be guaranteed for skill, injury, and salary cap termination. If the option is not exercised, the player will become a free agent on the first day of the 2015 League Year. It is important to also note that a player can be cut with no cap or cash ramifications before 2015 as long as he is uninjured, so the risk in the option is minimal

Nothing prevents a team from extending a player after the option is exercised, but the large window to use it is likely there to give NFL teams some leverage in negotiations on extensions, which are also not permitted for draft picks until after the completion of their third season. The option year is similar to the Franchise tag in that it provides no long term job security at all so it can be held over a players head. Once signed it also locks in a price for a season that in many cases will be lower than the actual value of the player. This can lead to an extension being signed on May 4 that will either contain less money over a five year period or force the player into a six year contract than if an extension was agreed upon before the option year becomes official.

The Top 10

The price for the option year will depend on where the player is selected in the draft. If selected in the first 10 picks the option year will be equal to the calculated Transition tag for each position in 2014. For the 2011 draft the positions in question are Quarterback, Linebacker, Defensive Tackle, Wide Receiver, Cornerback, and Offensive Line. I can’t give any firm estimates of the number but based on last years numbers I would say a fair guesstimate is as follows:

Position	Rough Estimate
QB	$14,100,000
WR	$9,700,000
OL	$9,800,000
DT	$7,800,000
LB	$9,500,000
CB	$9,400,000

There are only two top 10 picks who I do not think will have their option year picked up or be extended. The first is the Jaguars’ Blaine Gabbert who is the first real bust of the 2011 draft. There is no need to even chance him getting injured and paying him around $14 million. The other would be Jake Locker. Locker is so injury prone that I think the injury guarantee aspect would be a real consideration.

I would think the most obvious extension first candidates would be QB Cam Newton, LB Aldon Smith, and T Tyron Smith. The Panthers and Cowboys could both be in a tight salary cap situation both in 2014 and 2015. They could, in theory, negotiate extensions that provide benefits in both 2014 and 2015 before having the big cap charges kick in during the 2016 season. The 49ers have always extended players early and even with Smith’s off field problems he would be a logical early extension candidate.

LB Von Miller presents an interesting case in that his off field issues may have him close to being suspended for a full season. If that was to occur Miller would actually lose UFA status in 2015 and instead be a lower cost restricted free agent if the option was not picked up. While that may be a consideration I would imagine that he will have the option picked up.

My gut feeling is that Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Marcell Dareus and AJ Green will all have their options exercised and not immediately be extended. Peterson’s camp will likely wait until Richard Sherman signs a new contract which could linger into the summer or regular season. Jones is coming off injury and is not at a strong leverage position and may just opt to play things out for the year. The Bills could be gun shy after the Mario Williams contract plus the cost of a good DT on a tag is going to be a bargain. Green is a tricky one to read. The Bengals have been opening the pocket book lately but seeing how much money Mike Wallace got in free agency makes me think Green has to be looking for $14 million a year. That may be too steep for the Bengals, especially if they decide to go in another QB direction after 2015.

Picks 11-32

Outside of the top 10 we calculate our value based on the average of the number 3 to number 25 salaries at the position. I don’t have a baseline to really work from on this one but I can take a really rough estimate based on the cap values I have estimated at the position and making a downward adjustment for the 5 year average that is used to calculate the real number. The positions in question are Quarterback, Defensive End, Defensive Tackle, Offensive Line, Cornerback, Wide Receiver, and Running Back. Please note again that these will not be the real numbers and are really rough guesses at a figure.

Position	Guesstimate
QB	$10,509,000
WR	$9,000,000
RB	$4,250,000
OL	$8,811,000
DE	$8,428,000
LB	$6,970,000
CB	$7,200,000
DT	$5,500,000

I can not imagine QB Christian Ponder, RB Mark Ingram, WR Jonathan Baldwin, T Derek Sherrod, G Gabe Carimi, G James Carpenter, and G Danny Watkins even getting consideration. They are either ineffective, constantly injured, or a poor fit.

C Mike Pouncey of the Dolphins could be an interesting decision depending on what the real option value is calculated to be. He’s a good player, but his value is going to be based primarily on the Tackle market, which earns significantly more than Centers. The option in his case would likely increase the value of his contract, so I would think they would instead begin extension talks with him as soon as their season is over.

I would imagine that none of the Defensive Tackles (Nick Fairley, Corey Liuget, and Phil Taylor) have done enough to really merit an extension, but the option value should be reasonable enough to use it in all cases to maintain the rights to the player. DT is sometimes a slow to develop position so having an extra year might be a good thing.

T Nate Solder has allowed a lot of sacks this season in New England but he is a durable and good player. I’m not sure if the Patriots would want to commit that much in one year to Solder so I think they would try to extend first on team friendly terms before exercising the option. The Colts should have significant cap space in 2014 and they have overpaid for players so I would think doing an extension with T Anthony Castonzo will occur.

There are multiple good Defensive Ends in this draft. Robert Quinn, JJ Watt, Cam Jordan, and Muhammad Wilkerson are all top line players. Considering the Rams history I’d be very surprised if Quinn was not extended this March. He’s a keeper and they have extended early in the past. Watt should be extended because he is the top player at the position and the Texans would get some good press out of a move as they exit a disastrous season. Their salary cap is tight, which could be a road block, but I think they would get this done before May.

Cam Jordan is a prolific pass rusher who fits in perfect with the Saints defense. I don’t think the Saints can actually afford, with their cap situation, to have him play 2015 on an option year. The problem is that their salary cap is in bad shape in 2014 and can not really get relief by extending him because his cap hit is already so low. Even though Jordan’s value will likely rise I think they have to exercise the option and then extend him in 2015. With significant cap room in 2014 I’d be amazed if the Jets did not lock Wilkerson up long term. Its kind of the exact opposite situation of the Saints.

Adrian Clayborn of the Buccaneers should have his option exercised. He has an injury history and has yet to establish himself in the NFL, but there are enough glimpses to where there is no negative to using the option. Ryan Kerrigan is one of the few decent players on the Redskins defense. The price of the option could be too steep for his position so I would think they will work first on an extension. If one cant be worked out it is probably best to protect their interests. When I first wrote this I actually forgot that Steelers DE Cam Heyward had been moved from a rarely playing player to a near full timer. Thanks to our friend (and Steelers fan) Ian I think its safe to say he will have the option exercised so the team can evaluate further.

That leaves us with two players-Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Prince Amukamara. Neither is really worth the value of the option year but I don’t think either has proven to be worthless either. I’d see both players having their option years picked up but no extension talks occurring until after the 2014 season begins and the teams get more of a look at the players.

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Status Update on the Eight Franchised Players

Posted on September 26, 2013September 26, 2013 by Ryan Feder

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It was a big week for a few players playing under the Franchise Tag this season and I figured it was a good time to just check-in and see they are doing so far this season.

The Good:

Michael Johnson – Defensive End – Cincinnati Bengals – Tag $11,175,000

The Cincinnati Bengals defense is playing excellent football and at the heart of that success is Michael Johnson. Johnson tied for 9^th in the league last year with 11.5 sacks and although he has only recorded 1.5 sacks this year, there may not be a defensive end playing better football in the league right now than Johnson. Johnson watched the Bengals pay out serious money in extensions to fellow defensive end Carlos Dunlap ($40 million) and All-Pro Defensive Tackle Geno Atkins ($55 million) this offseason and both haven’t played up to their billing through three games. The Bengals have plenty of cap space but also have to worry about the monster deal coming for All-Pro WR AJ Green and a new deal for Quarterback Andy Dalton (most likely). With so much money already tied up in the defensive line and only so many dollars to go around, they Bengals might not have a choice but to let Johnson walk, especially if he keeps this elite level of play up leading to his free agency.

Branden Albert – Left Tackle – Kansas City Chiefs – Tag $9,828,000

Branden Albert had a tumultuous offseason to say the least. It seems as if he was tagged for the sole purpose of being traded and was floated on the trade block leading up and through draft day while at the same time watching the Chiefs spend the 1^st overall pick on what is believed to be his replacement, offensive tackle Eric Fisher. Interestingly enough, Fisher is struggling mightily three games into his NFL career and Albert has protected new quarterback Alex Smith extremely well. Through three games, Albert has only allowed 4 quarterback hurries and 1 sack despite sustaining a shoulder injury in week 2, which led to his worst performance of the season in week 3. It will be interesting to see if Albert continues his solid play from the first two weeks or if the shoulder injury will hamper him. Either way, I believe this will be the last season for Albert in Kansas City.

Pat McAfee – Punter/Kickoff Specialist – Indianapolis Colts – Tag $2,977,000

There isn’t much to talk about here seeing as I seriously lack any experience evaluating Punter’s performance. But it is worth noting that McAfee has performed near the top third of the league in Punting according to Pro Football Focus, hasn’t showed up on the wrong end of any highlights and is healthy. As we will see later, half the battle in making the good section of this article is staying out of the news and actually being able to suit up on game day.

The “Bad”:

Randy Starks – Defensive Tackle – Miami Dolphins – Tag $8,450,000

Despite a scheme and position change, Randy Starks has continued to be an extremely productive defensive lineman for the Miami Dolphins since joining the team via free agency prior to the 2008 season. Starks thrived as one of the league’s best 3-4 defensive ends from 2008-2011 and now is getting the hang of playing defensive tackle in Kevin Coyle’s 4-3 defense. Unfortunately, there have been some negative reports floating around about Starks during the offseason and now during the season. One of which was a report that Starks believes the Dolphins punished him for missing offseason voluntary workouts and stripped him of his starting role while he was lobbying for a long-term deal. While defensive tackles Paul Soliai and Jared Odrick are listed as starters ahead of Starks, the snap counts were all relatively similar prior to Soliai’s week 2 knee injury. Starks regained his starting role, at least temporarily, after Soliai went down with a knee injury although he didn’t play particularly well in the Dolphins’ win against Atlanta. To further complicate issues, Starks was caught on camera flipping the bird on the sidelines during the Dolphins’ week 1 victory against Cleveland. Reports were the gesture was directed at the coaching staff but Starks claims it was him just joking on the sidelines with his teammates. Who knows what the truth is, but Jeff Ireland and Joe Philbin have been quick to rid themselves of players that cause distractions and the soon to be 30 year-old Starks in the headlines surely isn’t helping his cause to secure a long-term deal with the Dolphins this offseason.

Jairus Byrd – Free Safety – Buffalo Bills – Tag $6,916,000

Muddled in an ugly contract dispute, Jairus Byrd’s 2013 season hasn’t started smoothly to say the least. As one of the leagues’ top safeties he was hoping to cash in big during the offseason but never could get close enough with the Bills to hammer out a deal. Unhappy with his current situation, Byrd didn’t sign his franchise tender until August 20^th and reportedly was asking to be traded. To make matters worse, Byrd reported to the team complaining of sore feet, which was determined to be plantar fasciitis. I can tell you first hand that dealing with plantar fasciitis is extremely painful and frustrating. Citing his foot pain, Byrd has yet to suit up for the Bills this year despite the rest of their secondary also being decimated by injuries. Cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, Ron Brooks, and Leodis McKelvin are dealing with an assortment of injuries of their own. What complicates Byrd’s injury and contract situation further is the discovery that he played through the injury last season. Whether it’s fair or not, it looks as if Byrd was willing to play through the pain last year in search of a big payday and now doesn’t see it as worthwhile to risk playing through it this year. You would have to figure we are going to see Byrd suit up for the Bills soon, but it may very well be the last season he plays for Buffalo unless of course the Bills decide to tag him again, since it would only cost around $8.3 million, and this whole drama plays out again next year.

The Ugly:

Henry Melton – Defensive Tackle – Chicago Bears – Tag $8,450,000

After back-to-back stellar years at the Defensive Tackle position Henry Melton’s shaky 2013 start went from bad to flat out devastating. As we mentioned in previous articles, the Chicago Bears have a number of key players in contract years and franchised Henry Melton was one of them. With the Bears thriving under new head coach Marc Trestman, it’s looking increasingly likely that a higher number of the players would be retained. Unfortunately for Melton, he is going to be a perfect case study of why players value long-term contract security so much and fight so hard to avoid the franchise tag. Melton suffered a torn ACL vs the Steelers this Sunday and not only is he going to miss the rest of the season, his value in free agency this upcoming offseason just took a crippling blow. While it seems to be the trend that players can recover from ACL injuries faster and more efficiently than ever, Melton may have to take a shorter “prove it” deal instead of a more substantial free agency haul that he was looking forward to.

Anthony Spencer – Defensive End – Dallas Cowboys – Tag $10,627,200

In 2012, Spencer and the Cowboys were unable to reach a long-term deal and he ended up playing through the season on the $8,856,000 franchise tag. Not only did he avoid serious injury, Spencer probably played the best football of his career. With Monte Kiffin bringing in his Tampa 2 4-3 defense, Spencer was asked to switch from 3-4 Outside Linebacker to 4-3 Defensive End and the position change ending up being one of the contentious points that prevented the Cowboys and Spencer from seeing eye to eye on his value and reaching a long-term deal yet again this year. The Cowboys and Spencer both seemed content to play the year out on the franchise tag again, but as mentioned above with Henry Melton, it comes with serious risk. Spencer had offseason surgery on his left knee and after missing week 1 was able to play against Kansas City in week 2. It’s unclear what happened during the game, but after missing week 3, news broke that Spencer would have micro-fracture surgery on his left knee and will miss the rest of the season. Spencer is now in the same bucket as Melton and will have to prove to teams he is past his injury if he hopes to cash in next offseason in free agency.

Ryan Clady – Left Tackle – Denver Broncos – Tag $9,828,000****

Of the eight players who were franchise tagged this offseason, Ryan Clady was the sole player who reached a long-term extension with their team. Trusted with protecting the blind-side of early-season MVP Peyton Manning, the Broncos agreed to a 5-year $52.5 million extension. Clady becomes another example of why players fight so hard to avoid the franchise tag and hold out of team activities while they pursue long-term security from the teams. Just two games into his new mega-deal, Clady’s foot suffered a season-ending Lisfranc sprain in a seemingly docile collision. Of the three players now on season-ending IR, Clady is the only one with any multi-year security and doesn’t have to worry about proving his worth and health next offseason in search of a new deal.