Contract Year Players

Contract Year Series, Kenny Britt

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Kenny Britt #18 WR, Tennessee Titans

Today we are going to analyze another #18 with a much different free agent market outlook.  Kenny Britt was the 30th pick of the 2009 NFL Draft.  His production has been consistently below his immense talent.  For the most part, the Titans are to blame for his inefficient production on the field.  Constant change at the QB position and offensive philosophy has stunted Britt’s play.  Last year, Britt struggled staying healthy with multiple knee injuries that required an off season to heal.  Dowell Loggains has been brought in as OC to create a stable high-powered offense.  The Titans have also bolstered their offensive line by utilizing their first round pick on Chance Warmack and free agent signing of Andy Levitre.

The wide receiver market is paced by Kenny Britt.  There is no question that a big year will put Britt in the Top-5 WR money.  We have to model around Mike Wallace’s 5 years, $60 million contract signed last off season. As long as the knee troubles do not continue, expect the 25 year old Britt to become a very rich man.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $64 million

Contract Year Series, Jeremy Maclin

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Jeremy Maclin #18 WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Here is the “Dark Side” of NFL Contract Year Series players.  Any time the player gets to his contract year, the risk profile of the relationship explodes.  Sometimes the team holds the majority of the risk, but for the most part if a player is allowed to play out their contract, the risk is squarely on his shoulders.  In Maclin’s case, that weight was squarely on his knees and his right knee unfortunately succumbed too the pressure.

The 2014 WR Free Agent market just got really interesting.  Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt just received a huge boost to potentially expediting extensions, while Emmanual Sanders, James Jones, and Golden Tate will be recipients of the value created by Maclin’s injury.  As for Maclin’s value, we must consider that this is the second time he will be having ACL surgery on his right knee.  Adrian Petersen’s amazing season one year removed from ACL surgery  has jaded the followers of the NFL into thinking that returning from this devastating injury is getting easier.  For a person that has gone through the process, I can tell you that what AP did was the exception and not the rule.

Prior to the injury, I would have placed Maclin in the $7.5-$8 million range on the high end.  I would imagine that with a satisfactory rehab process, at the age of 25, he will still command a premium veteran salary.

Estimated New Contract: 2 years, $7 million

Contract Year Series, Tarell Brown

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Tarell Brown #25 CB, San Francisco 49ers

Baffling to me, is a person that does not know the requirements to collect a reward offered by an employer when the contract is signed. This state of bewilderment is directly correlated to the size of the reward. Imagining the state I am in presently after hearing Tarell Brown’s plight, can only be placed in the world of understanding Lindsay Lohan’s decision making process.

I mean, $2 million is an amount that the player should be responsible to understand what the requirements are to obtain. Brown fired his agent and rightfully so, but to blame him entirely is sour grapes. My assumption is that Tarell Brown has the ability to read his contract. These documents are not beyond the ability for a high school graduate to understand. Even if he could not, it is Tarell Brown’s signature at the end of the document, correct? This fact means that Tarell Brown, and Tarell Brown alone, takes responsibility for the contractual agreements set forth in the document.

Either way, the 49ers are in an interesting bind. Brown is a bona fide CB1 in the NFL and will likely be paid as one at the end of this season. If the team just gives Brown the $2 million it sets a terrible precedent of allowing players to not abide by their contract. If the 49ers stay firm on not giving him anything, then they may be perceived as “not being player friendly” which is not good for future business. This is where an immediate, fair market value extension for what is likely the best valued CB in the 2014 Free Agency market makes everything go away. The 49ers will be retaining a solid player at a fair value and they can even “take some flesh” from Brown through slightly higher hurdles in the new contract (to the tune of $2 million). Tarell Brown can get the slap on the wrist that is deserved in this case, but he gets a second chance to get what is rightfully his in the spirit of his existing contract.

Estimated New Contract: 4 years, $24.8 million with $1 million roster bonus for week 1 and a $1 million NLTBE 3 interception incentive

Contract Year Series, Jimmy Graham

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Jimmy Graham #80 TE, New Orleans Saints

To quote the great Winston Churchill, Jimmy Graham is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. He used his 6’7″ 265 lbs frame to secure a scholarship at the University of Miami- playing basketball. It was only after he graduated from college that he decided to play football for Miami while taking graduate classes. Graham parlayed his 17/213/5 season into a 3rd round selection of the New Orleans Saints in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Along with NFL personnel directors, many fantasy football owners are wondering which Jimmy Graham will be on the field in 2013. He followed up a 2011 line of 99/1310/11 with a somewhat disappointing 85/982/9 2012 season. In baseball, there is a well known fact that the second time though the league, the new player has a much harder time repeating his original success. This is especially true for Joker (or Move) Tight Ends in the NFL. This style of TE provides a special piece in the chess game played by coordinators on Sundays. Once a Joker shows the ability to continually beat opposing LB and SS, usually DCs begin using their Slot CB to defend them. So this is where real GMs and fake GMs differ in their valuation process. Even though Graham’s numbers may have declined, he has opened up opportunity for the other Saints receivers.

The Tight End market in the NFL is between $6M-$7.5M APY for Top-15 TEs. I would imaging that if Graham’s puts up similar numbers to 2011/12 he will become the highest paid TE in the NFL.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $41 million

Contract Year Series, Geno Atkins

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Geno Atkins #97 DT, Cincinnati Bengals

When discussing NFL Draft steals, a name that is rising up the list, like a rocket, is Cincinnati Bengals Defensive Tackle- Geno Atkins. The knock on Atkins prior to the 2010 Draft was he is simply too small to play as an interior lineman in the NFL. Well the past three years have obliterated the experts’ opinion of him. From a production standpoint, Pro Football Focus has graded Atkins as the highest ranking player on the Bengals defense for each of his first three seasons. With 12.5 sacks, 54 tackles, and 49 QB hurries, his 2012 season ranks with the best players -defense or offense- since PFF began ranking players in 2008.

Let’s analyse Geno Atkins’ market value. The highest paid NFL DT is the 3rd overall pick from the same draft, Tampa Bay Bucanneers’ Gerald McCoy. McCoy has recorded a total of 9.0 sacks and 69 tackles in his entire 3-year career. This stat line has cost the Bucaneers $12.7M APY and considering his Pro Bowl nomination in 2012 they should be happy with his deal. There are two other DT’s that have crossed the $12M APY threshold- Haloti Ngata and Ndamukong Suh. After these three players, there is a large break to the next level between $8M-$8.5M range of Randy Starks, Henry Melton and Vince Wilfork.

McCoy will command at least $12M and possibly upwards of $13.5 if he puts together another big year. Time is actually on the side of the Bengals in this negotiation as Atkins will be hard pressed to repeat his amazing 2012 season. This is also one of the few situations that the franchise tag will be a cost savings as well as a time filler for the Bengals. I looks as though Atkins won’t hit the open market until after the 2014 season.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $67.5 million

Contract Year Series, Matt Ryan

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Matt Ryan #2 QB, Atlanta Falcons

by Paul Carrozzo

On July 9th, Matthew Stafford signed a 5 year $76.5 million contract with the Detroit Lions.  That signing along with the rumors leading up to the signing put Matt Ryan back on the mind. After watching the Baltimore Ravens gamble and lose with Joe Flacco, the question on most fans minds is how soon Matt Ryan’s contract will be extended by the Falcons.  Ryan is in the final year of his rookie contract (6 year $67.5 million) and is in position to really break the bank on his next contract.

We must remember where the Falcon franchise was in 2008 when they drafted Ryan 3rd overall.  The Mike Vick disaster had the club searching for a new face that it could be proud.  Matt Ryan was the man that not only pulled the Falcons out of the depths of public outcry, but it can be argued that the Falcons are now completely distanced from the incident because of Ryan.  How can something as unprecedented as this be valued?  It really is up to the Falcon brass to weigh in, but my assumption is that the Falcons will not go into the season without extending Ryan.

Oddly enough, it is the contract that Vick signed with the Eagles in 2011 that most closely resembles Ryan’s present value.  Add that skill valuation with the goodwill he has created in Atlanta, and it is a recipe for a Top 5 QB contract.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $86 million

Contract Year Series, Jairus Byrd

Posted on by Paul Carrozzo

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Jairus Byrd #31 FS, Buffalo Bills

by Paul Carrozzo

When Barry Bonds was in the midst of his steroid stupor, MLB pitchers strategically began walking him for the opportunity to face the next hitter in the San Francisco Giants lineup.  The logic was simple enough for even the most casual baseball fan to understand.  The risk of pitching to Bonds had exceeded to value of offering the Giants a free base.  It became the equivalent of handing money to the bully as a preemptive strike as to not go through the hassle of him attempting to take it with force.

A very similar function is happening in the NFL but with much less fanfare.  We all remember Deion Sanders, in his prime, taking half the field away from the offense.  Teams decided to just not throw to Deion’s side of the field.  To a lesser extent, (although listening to the New York media you would think an even greater) Darrell Revis has had a similar effect on offensive play calling in recent years.  What the casual fan has not realized is a Free Safety in Buffalo that has built a reputation to stay away from.  Jairus Byrd was the 42nd pick in the 2009 NFL Draft and afforded the Bills the ability to trade their 2008 FS, Ko Simpson, a week before the ’09 season started.  The son of a former 2-time Pro Bowler Gil Byrd, Jairus impacted the league almost immediately.

Even though Byrd had a solid first three seasons, 2012 was by far his best.  Already having a reputation to avoid throwing at him, the QBs in the NFL almost completely shut off the spiget.  According to Pro Football Focus, Jairus Byrd played 1047 snaps for the Bills last year and was thrown at 21 times.  Need to repeat that… twenty one times!  By comparison Eric Weddle (the best market comparison and 2nd highest paid FS in the NFL) was thrown at 34 times allowing 2 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.  Byrd did not allow an interception and picked off 5 passes.  Almost one quarter of the time teams threw at Byrd, he converted the opportunity into a turnover.  No wonder teams have decided to penalty box throwing at him.

Analysis of Byrd’s future contract value starts and ends with Weddle.  Even though Dashon Goldson just signed the highest contract for FS last year, it was a terrible value for the Bucanneers as they will soon find out that he can’t hold a flame to Weddle or Byrd..  As we can see Byrd minimally should be in the ballpark of Weddle’s record breaking 5 year $40mm signed just prior to the 2011 season.  Based upon his consistency and the progressively more respect that he has gained from the league, my argument is that he should exceed that contract.  The Bills decided to use their franchise tag on Byrd this season, which will make him a 27 year old free agent after this season.

Estimated New Contract: 5 years, $43mm