2016 Cap Analytics: Denver Broncos

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Player Position Expected Outcome Expected Savings
Chris Harris Jr. DB 99.9% $630
Shane Ray F7 99.8% ($8,950)
Derek Wolfe F7 99.3% ($42,160)
Demaryius Thomas REC 99.1% ($175,720)
Sylvester Williams F7 91.6% $121,297
Aqib Talib DB 88.0% $837,644
TJ Ward DB 68.3% $1,030,250
Darian Stewart DB 65.5% $863,000
Emmanuel Sanders REC 61.4% $2,159,360
Vance Walker F7 51.9% $721,650
Louis Vasquez OL 51.5% $2,669,150
Britton Colquitt KP 48.4% $1,677,975
Virgil Green REC 44.9% $1,046,520
Owen Daniels REC 31.8% $1,706,000
DeMarcus Ware F7 16.7% $8,328,000
Ryan Clady OL 9.2% $8,082,090
Peyton Manning QB 7.2% $17,641,500
Expected Change in Cap Room +$46,658,236


True Cap SpaceRealizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms.  Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)
Adjusted Salary Cap $152,805,354
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts ($22,349,635)
Realizable Cap Space $130,455,719
Fully Guaranteed Salary ($14,901,993)
Minimum Salary Cap Holds ($22,500,000)
True Cap Space $93,053,726
League Rank 15th

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams.  A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments.  The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016). 

Commitment Index (2017+)
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts $23,798,998
Fully Guaranteed Salary $2,263,990
Current Cap Space ($20,413,401)
Net Commitment $5,649,587
Commitment Index Score 33%
League Rank (1st = Most Committed) 22nd