Since every team is at least a quarter of the way through the season I wanted to begin looking at each position week by week to see how their on the field performance translates into salary at the position. The valuations are based on a few categories of statistics, player usage, efficiency and participation which is compared with historical data and current market values to come up with a salary estimate for each position. Values are based on a player keeping his current per game numbers over a full 16 game season. Today we will look at the quarterback position and see where each player ranks.The first thing that will probably stand out when looking at the numbers here is how many players have big numbers. The reason for that is because of the recent spending sprees on quarterbacks which basically has moved the entire market to the point where most non rookies are earning over $18 million a season. So in general a starting quarterback is worth a lot of money compared to other positions.
The current top ranked quarterback is Tom Brady, who is having a tremendous season for the Patriots. If he were to keep up his current pace he would more or less blow away any season in recent memory. I have him valued at nearly $26 million, which is well above the current market maximum. Andy Dalton ranks second at just under $23 million based on his five game stretch, which has been terrific. His recent run has certainly quieted the criticism that he hould be replaced because of the lack of upside. Filling out the top 3 is Carson Palmer who looks like he did back in the mid 2000’s when he looked like he was going to be a big superstar.
The name I found most interesting was Blake Bortles, who came in 7th at $20.4 million. The Jaguars are a terrible team, but he has very quietly put together a really good start to his season, a major improvement over his rookie year which was abysmal. Tyrod Taylor of the Bills is playing at a $19.5 million level, which actually makes him the biggest bargain in the NFL when you compare his value to his cap charge. He has struggled more the last two weeks and is now injured so we’ll have to see if the value persists.
Peyton Manning’s stock has dropped tremendously this season. I have him coming in t $11.4 million, which is in between rookie Jameis Winston and journeyman Brian Hoyer. Manning’s numbers, specifically on a per chance basis, are way down and for this season he has been no different than any other stopgap starter.
Of player’s who have not missed games due to injury the worst value is currently Matt Stafford of the Lions. Stafford has a cap charge of $17.7 million but a valuation of just $9.3 million.
2015 QB Salary Valuation, Thru Week 5
|Rank||Name||Team||2015 Value||Actual Cap Charge||Difference|
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.