Expected Contract Value Calculations (3/10/2016)

Mark Barron, Damon Harrison, Mitchell Schwartz, Tashaun Gipson, Chris Ivory, Travis Benjamin, DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Lane, Ladarious Green, Bobby Massie, Richard Matthews, Jaye Howard, Brandon Mebane and Haloti Ngata.

Mark Barron
Stated Value: $45,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.3% $10,000,000
2017 $5,000,000 92.5% $4,624,881 $5,000,000
2018 $9,000,000 73.0% $6,572,644
2019 $8,000,000 56.0% $4,481,841
2020 $8,000,000 34.0% $2,718,543
Subtotal $18,397,909 $15,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $33,397,909 (74%)
Damon Harrison
Stated Value: $46,250,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $250,000 99.5% $248,700 $12,750,000
2017 $250,000 95.1% $237,749 $7,250,000
2018 $8,000,000 74.0% $5,922,832
2019 $7,000,000 55.1% $3,857,541
2020 $9,250,000 24.6% $2,276,033
Subtotal $12,542,855 $20,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $32,542,855 (70%)
Mitchell Schwartz
Stated Value: $33,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $240,000 99.5% $238,902 $7,760,000
2017 $600,000 96.7% $580,287 $4,900,000
2018 $6,300,000 78.5% $4,947,996
2019 $6,600,000 56.2% $3,706,431
2020 $6,600,000 32.2% $2,124,690
Subtotal $11,598,306 $12,660,000
Expected Contract Value: $24,258,306 (74%)
Tashaun Gipson
Stated Value: $36,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 99.4% $496,775 $7,000,000
2017 $500,000 96.0% $480,010 $5,000,000
2018 $6,250,000 76.4% $4,777,605
2019 $8,250,000 47.2% $3,897,836
2020 $8,500,000 25.7% $2,180,528
Subtotal $11,832,753 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $23,832,753 (66%)
Chris Ivory
Stated Value: $32,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 98.3% $491,382 $7,000,000
2017 $2,000,000 91.0% $1,820,139 $3,000,000
2018 $6,000,000 65.0% $3,901,415
2019 $6,000,000 31.0% $1,859,673
2020 $7,500,000 8.9% $668,876
Subtotal $8,741,485 $10,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $18,741,485 (59%)
Travis Benjamin
Stated Value: $24,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.7% $7,750,000
2017 95.3% $5,250,000
2018 $5,750,000 55.3% $3,177,157
2019 $5,250,000 37.5% $1,966,995
Subtotal $5,144,151 $13,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $18,144,151 (76%)
DeMarco Murray
Stated Value: $25,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 97.7% $6,000,000
2017 $3,000,000 85.1% $2,766,733 $3,000,000
2018 $3,000,000 48.2% $1,686,668 $3,000,000
2019 $6,750,000 13.1% $885,973
Subtotal $5,339,373 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $17,339,373 (68%)
Jeremy Lane
Stated Value: $23,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 98.7% $7,000,000
2017 $4,000,000 90.3% $3,612,905
2018 $6,000,000 64.4% $3,862,685
2019 $6,000,000 36.1% $2,163,271
Subtotal $9,638,860 $7,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $16,638,860 (72%)
Ladarius Green
Stated Value: $20,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $1,250,000 97.3% $1,216,151 $4,750,000
2017 $5,000,000 75.7% $3,782,976
2018 $4,500,000 59.5% $2,679,032
2019 $4,500,000 36.3% $1,633,645
Subtotal $9,311,804 $4,750,000
Expected Contract Value: $14,061,804 (70%)
Bobby Massie
Stated Value: $18,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $350,000 96.4% $337,508 $6,500,000
2017 $5,500,000 75.3% $4,177,758
2018 $5,600,000 50.4% $2,822,403
Subtotal $7,337,669 $6,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $13,837,669 (77%)
Rishard Matthews
Stated Value: $15,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $2,500,000 90.4% $2,259,372 $2,500,000
2017 $5,000,000 58.7% $2,932,555
2018 $5,000,000 36.8% $1,839,310
Subtotal $7,031,236 $2,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $9,531,236 (64%)
Jaye Howard
Stated Value: $10,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $240,000 96.1% $230,700 $5,760,000
2017 $4,000,000 51.6% $2,064,138
Subtotal $2,294,838 $5,760,000
Expected Contract Value: $8,054,838 (81%)
Brandon Mebane
Stated Value: $13,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 91.4% $5,500,000
2017 $3,500,000 48.4% $1,695,416
2018 $4,500,000 15.1% $679,879
Subtotal $2,375,294 $5,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $7,875,294 (58%)
Haloti Ngata
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $250,000 81.4% $203,457 $6,000,000
2017 $5,750,000 15.9% $911,717
Subtotal $7,115,175
Expected Contract Value: $7,115,175 (59%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.