2016 Cap Analytics: New England Patriots

Expected Contract OutcomesExpected Contract Value 2.0 utilizes an algorithm based on a player’s contract characteristics, age, position and 2015 performance to forecast probabilities as to the outcomes of contract termination decisions.   The lower the Expected Outcome, the more likely the player’s contract will be terminated in 2016.  A pay cut is treated as a termination.  We have applied ECV 2.0 to all contracts scheduled to count $2 million or more against the 2016 salary cap with the exception of exercised 5th year rookie options.  Expected Savings is the calculated by multiplying the probability a player will be released by the cap savings realized by the team upon such release.

Player Position Expected Outcome Expected Savings
Stephen Gostkowski KP 100.0% ($1,080)
Rob Gronkowski REC 99.2% ($24,250)
Devin McCourty DB 98.7% ($114,738)
Tom Brady QB 90.2% $294,000
Patrick Chung DB 85.9% $111,116
Julian Edelman REC 72.7% $525,248
Rob Ninkovich F7 71.6% $567,200
Nate Solder OL 67.3% $650,512
Danny Amendola REC 61.9% $1,550,579
Jabaal Sheard F7 58.0% $2,022,212
Alan Branch F7 55.8% $1,061,520
Sebastian Vollmer OL 54.8% $1,865,738
Jerod Mayo F7 54.3% $3,196,200
Marcus Cannon OL 51.1% $1,803,925
Brandon LaFell REC 44.4% $1,487,033
Scott Chandler REC 25.4% $1,529,915
Expected Change in Cap Room +$16,525,130


True Cap SpaceRealizable Cap Space depicts the total amount of salary cap space potentially at the team’s disposal in 2016, and True Cap Space makes further adjustments to take into consideration amounts that are accounted for in practical terms.  Most True Cap Space will be used on players currently under contract as a result of the team choosing to not release them.

True Cap Space (2016)
Adjusted Salary Cap $152,263,507
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts ($41,712,099)
Realizable Cap Space $110,551,408
Fully Guaranteed Salary ($15,665,015)
Minimum Salary Cap Holds ($21,150,000)
True Cap Space $73,736,393
League Rank 24th

Commitment Index – Commitment Index identifies the degree to which a team has “mortgaged its future” by measuring its net future salary cap commitments as a percentage of the average net future salary cap commitments of all teams.  A Commitment Index Score of 100% is average, and a negative Commitment Index Score indicates that the team has more current salary cap space than future salary cap commitments.  The Commitment Index Score of every team in the league changes to at least some degree with every transaction executed by any team in the league, so Commitment Index Score is measured as of a specific point in time (in this case, January 11, 2016). 

Commitment Index (2017+)
Prorated Signing Bonus Amounts $38,938,518
Fully Guaranteed Salary $1,127,112
Current Cap Space ($4,293,087)
Net Commitment $35,772,543
Commitment Index Score 207%
League Rank (1st = Most Committed) 9TH