When NFL observers start to get to work on looking how teams may change for the next season, the first place to reference is to look at the list of pending free agents coming from contracts that are expiring. This is easy because it’s very known as to when that expiration occurs. But what is less easy, but just as important, is figuring out which players are going to become free agents because their contracts are instead terminated.
Therefore, this article is an attempt to add some visibility on which players could be cut in the coming months, using some metrics that include recent work done on determining contract fate. This article is an update from a similar article in August that will additionally use the regular season OTC Valuation metric to add an estimate of performance quality on the field in 2023 to try to forecast a more accurate picture.
It must be stressed that this list is not attempting to be predictive. It is guessed that most of the players on this list will not be cut. Many could see their contract restructured, and a few others might take a pay cut to stay. The hope is that list can provide a guide as to lessening surprise on why certain players may be cut. This list also does not intend to limit possible cuts to these players–some other players, a few of whom could be mentioned below, do not show up due to the history of their contract fate being lower than the threshold described below.
With that, this list is built from the players who:
| Name | Team | Position | Age | APY | 2024 Cash Due | 2024 Guaranteed Salary | Seasons Completed/ Contract Length |
2023 OTC Valuation Above Starter Median | Odds Of Negative Fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | Panthers | QB | 37 | $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($23,895,000) | 52.5% |
| Jarrett Stidham | Broncos | QB | 28 | $5,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | ($23,784,000) | 52.5% |
| Taylor Heinicke | Falcons | QB | 31 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($22,555,000) | 52.5% |
| Tyus Bowser | Ravens | EDGE | 29 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($11,201,000) | 63.6% |
| Matt Judon | Patriots | EDGE | 32 | $11,250,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,695,000) | 60.2% |
| Anthony Nelson | Buccaneers | EDGE | 27 | $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,510,000) | 60.2% |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | Dolphins | EDGE | 31 | $16,350,000 | $15,800,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($9,352,000) | 51.5% |
| Tim Patrick | Broncos | WR | 31 | $10,000,000 | $9,900,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($9,208,000) | 71.6% |
| Russell Gage | Buccaneers | WR | 28 | $8,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($9,208,000) | 76.1% |
| Deonte Harty | Bills | WR | 27 | $4,750,000 | $4,110,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($8,479,000) | 76.1% |
| Joey Bosa | Chargers | EDGE | 29 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($8,455,000) | 53.7% |
| Hunter Renfrow | Raiders | WR | 29 | $15,850,000 | $11,882,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($8,304,000) | 76.1% |
| Mike Williams | Chargers | WR | 30 | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($8,173,000) | 71.6% |
| Charles Omenihu | Chiefs | EDGE | 27 | $8,000,000 | $7,400,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($8,146,000) | 60.2% |
| Zay Jones | Jaguars | WR | 29 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($7,448,000) | 71.6% |
| Nick Chubb | Browns | RB | 29 | $12,200,000 | $12,200,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($7,072,000) | 86.1% |
| Nyheim Hines | Bills | RB | 28 | $4,500,000 | $5,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($7,072,000) | 57.6% |
| Deatrich Wise | Patriots | EDGE | 30 | $5,500,000 | $5,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($6,740,000) | 63.6% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Chiefs | WR | 30 | $10,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($6,552,000) | 71.6% |
| Bryan Mone | Seahawks | IDL | 29 | $5,517,500 | $5,900,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($6,532,000) | 64.4% |
| Dean Lowry | Vikings | IDL | 30 | $4,250,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($6,532,000) | 64.4% |
| Allen Robinson | Steelers | WR | 31 | $7,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($5,237,000) | 76.1% |
| C.J. Uzomah | Jets | TE | 31 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($5,090,000) | 71.1% |
| Robert Woods | Texans | WR | 32 | $7,625,000 | $6,500,000 | $1,500,000 | 1/2 | ($5,034,000) | 76.1% |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | Jaguars | IDL | 29 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,854,000) | 64.4% |
| Aaron Jones | Packers | RB | 30 | $11,500,000 | $12,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($4,810,000) | 57.6% |
| John Franklin-Myers | Jets | EDGE | 28 | $13,750,000 | $13,900,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($4,594,000) | 51.5% |
| Shaq Thompson | Panthers | LB | 30 | $6,300,000 | $5,600,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($4,277,000) | 57.5% |
| Avonte Maddox | Eagles | CB | 28 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($4,184,000) | 70.1% |
| Sam Hubbard | Bengals | EDGE | 29 | $10,000,000 | $8,150,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($3,643,000) | 51.5% |
| Davon Godchaux | Patriots | IDL | 30 | $10,400,000 | $8,300,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($3,618,000) | 64.4% |
| Jimmie Ward | Texans | S | 33 | $6,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $2,000,000 | 1/2 | ($3,501,000) | 57.6% |
| Tracy Walker | Lions | S | 29 | $8,333,333 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,483,000) | 75.0% |
| Christian Kirk | Jaguars | WR | 28 | $18,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($3,477,000) | 61.5% |
| Eddie Jackson | Bears | S | 31 | $14,600,000 | $14,150,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($3,378,000) | 74.4% |
| Cameron Heyward | Steelers | IDL | 35 | $16,400,000 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($3,305,000) | 63.6% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | Colts | TE | 31 | $5,850,000 | $5,920,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,256,000) | 71.1% |
| D.J. Jones | Broncos | IDL | 29 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($3,118,000) | 64.4% |
| Younghoe Koo | Falcons | K | 30 | $4,850,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 2/5 | ($3,038,000) | 100.0% |
| Diontae Johnson | Steelers | WR | 28 | $18,355,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,952,000) | 76.1% |
| Carlton Davis | Buccaneers | CB | 28 | $14,833,333 | $14,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,927,000) | 70.1% |
| Taysom Hill | Saints | TE | 34 | $10,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($2,924,000) | 61.9% |
| Tre’Davious White | Bills | CB | 29 | $17,250,000 | $10,400,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($2,830,000) | 57.9% |
| Budda Baker | Cardinals | S | 28 | $14,100,000 | $14,600,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,765,000) | 57.6% |
| Brian Allen | Rams | C | 29 | $5,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($2,601,000) | 58.7% |
| Marcus Maye | Saints | S | 31 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,410,000) | 75.0% |
| Will Dissly | Seahawks | TE | 28 | $8,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($2,339,000) | 71.1% |
| Shaquil Barrett | Buccaneers | EDGE | 32 | $17,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | ($2,183,000) | 63.6% |
| De’Vondre Campbell | Packers | LB | 31 | $10,000,000 | $10,750,000 | $0 | 2/5 | ($2,178,000) | 53.1% |
| John Cominsky | Lions | IDL | 29 | $4,250,000 | $5,000,000 | $500,000 | 1/2 | ($2,077,000) | 64.4% |
| Justin Reid | Chiefs | S | 27 | $10,500,000 | $10,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($1,505,000) | 75.0% |
| Alvin Kamara | Saints | RB | 29 | $15,000,000 | $11,800,000 | $0 | 3/5 | ($1,317,000) | 83.3% |
| Julian Love | Seahawks | S | 26 | $6,000,000 | $5,680,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($924,000) | 57.6% |
| Mason Cole | Steelers | C | 28 | $5,250,000 | $4,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($826,000) | 60.9% |
| Byron Murphy | Vikings | CB | 26 | $8,750,000 | $8,850,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($773,000) | 65.5% |
| Kyzir White | Cardinals | LB | 28 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $1,000,000 | 1/2 | ($751,000) | 57.5% |
| Jonnu Smith | Falcons | TE | 29 | $7,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | ($474,000) | 63.1% |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | TE | 29 | $14,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | ($393,000) | 61.9% |
| Donte Jackson | Panthers | CB | 29 | $11,726,667 | $10,622,500 | $0 | 2/3 | ($333,000) | 70.1% |
| Logan Thomas | Commanders | TE | 33 | $8,021,667 | $6,565,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($298,000) | 71.1% |
| Demarcus Lawrence | Cowboys | EDGE | 32 | $13,333,333 | $10,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | ($161,000) | 71.4% |
| Jonathan Jones | Patriots | CB | 31 | $9,500,000 | $9,000,000 | $4,000,000 | 1/2 | ($25,000) | 65.5% |
| Brandin Cooks | Cowboys | WR | 31 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $0 | 76.1% |
| Patrick Ricard | Ravens | FB | 30 | $3,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $0 | 61.5% |
| David Andrews | Patriots | C | 32 | $4,750,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $114,000 | 63.6% |
| Justin Simmons | Broncos | S | 31 | $15,250,000 | $14,500,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $431,000 | 74.4% |
| Tyler Conklin | Jets | TE | 29 | $6,750,000 | $6,750,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $504,000 | 71.1% |
| Austin Corbett | Panthers | RG | 29 | $8,750,000 | $6,250,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $526,000 | 81.0% |
| Nate Herbig | Steelers | RG | 26 | $4,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $587,000 | 70.3% |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | WR | 29 | $15,000,000 | $13,500,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $730,000 | 61.5% |
| Mark Glowinski | Giants | RG | 32 | $6,100,000 | $5,700,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $746,000 | 81.0% |
| Jerome Baker | Dolphins | LB | 28 | $12,500,000 | $11,133,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $802,000 | 78.1% |
| Ted Karras | Bengals | C | 31 | $6,000,000 | $6,400,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $833,000 | 60.9% |
| Marcus Epps | Raiders | S | 28 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $2,585,000 | 1/2 | $852,000 | 57.6% |
| James Conner | Cardinals | RB | 29 | $7,000,000 | $5,490,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $940,000 | 86.1% |
| Arik Armstead | 49ers | IDL | 31 | $17,000,000 | $18,260,000 | $0 | 4/5 | $1,146,000 | 60.7% |
| Quandre Diggs | Seahawks | S | 31 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,146,000 | 75.0% |
| Josh Sweat | Eagles | EDGE | 27 | $13,333,333 | $16,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,198,000 | 71.4% |
| Mitch Morse | Bills | C | 32 | $9,750,000 | $8,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,296,000 | 58.7% |
| Harrison Phillips | Vikings | IDL | 28 | $6,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,351,000 | 64.4% |
| Darius Slayton | Giants | WR | 27 | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,466,000 | 76.1% |
| Kevin Byard | Eagles | S | 31 | $12,550,000 | $14,100,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,516,000 | 57.6% |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | Jaguars | S | 30 | $8,750,000 | $9,000,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $1,611,000 | 74.4% |
| Joe Mixon | Bengals | RB | 28 | $5,750,000 | $5,750,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,772,000 | 57.6% |
| Xavier Woods | Panthers | S | 29 | $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $1,794,000 | 75.0% |
| Jordan Poyer | Bills | S | 33 | $6,250,000 | $5,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,831,000 | 57.6% |
| David Bakhtiari | Packers | LT | 33 | $23,000,000 | $21,500,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $1,893,000 | 66.7% |
| Dre Greenlaw | 49ers | LB | 27 | $8,200,000 | $8,700,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,994,000 | 57.5% |
| David Long Jr. | Dolphins | LB | 28 | $5,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $1,997,000 | 57.5% |
| Cody Whitehair | Bears | LG | 32 | $10,250,000 | $10,250,000 | $0 | 4/5 | $2,000,000 | 87.5% |
| Eric Kendricks | Chargers | LB | 32 | $6,625,000 | $6,500,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,107,000 | 57.5% |
| Dallas Goedert | Eagles | TE | 29 | $14,250,000 | $14,250,000 | $6,000,000 | 2/4 | $2,179,000 | 61.9% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Titans | WR | 32 | $13,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $2,264,000 | 76.1% |
| David Njoku | Browns | TE | 28 | $13,687,500 | $14,500,000 | $3,000,000 | 2/4 | $2,328,000 | 61.9% |
| Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | WR | 32 | $17,300,000 | $17,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $2,673,000 | 61.5% |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | TE | 35 | $14,312,500 | $13,000,000 | $0 | 2/4 | $3,243,000 | 61.9% |
| B.J. Hill | Bengals | IDL | 29 | $10,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,264,000 | 64.4% |
| Jarran Reed | Seahawks | IDL | 32 | $4,500,000 | $4,470,000 | $0 | 1/2 | $3,808,000 | 64.4% |
| Laken Tomlinson | Jets | LG | 32 | $13,333,333 | $13,000,000 | $0 | 2/3 | $3,921,000 | 60.9% |
| Keenan Allen | Chargers | WR | 32 | $20,025,000 | $23,100,000 | $0 | 3/4 | $4,644,000 | 79.5% |
One aggravating factor that will show up on this list in several places are players who did not meet starter median performance due to significant injury. On the one hand, many of those players will be seen as victims of bad luck, and will be given the benefit of the doubt to bounce back in 2024. On the other hand, teams may view the injuries on some of these other players to be a sign of decline, and thus may see that as a reason to exit from those contracts. Common sense needs to be applied as to which players in this aggravating category fall into which side of each subcategory.
But for the players that were able to contribute an expected number of snaps in 2023, their contributions may come under more scrutiny by their teams when 2024 is taken into account.
Here are the number of players each team has on this list:
While it’s useful to see the quantity of contracts each team has to work with in this regard as a measure of how many players they may need to address contracts with, this is also incomplete without knowing how much they are budgeted to pay these players for 2024. What also may inform decisions is how much effective cap space teams have to operate with for next season.
Therefore, the graph below is a scatterplot of teams with the amount of non-guaranteed salary they have on the books toward these 100 players for 2024 versus their 2024 effective cap space. The green lines represent the median in both metrics.
The teams in the upper left quadrant have plenty of cash to burn in 2024 if they so choose, and also have low money tied up in players that did not meet starter median performance according to OTC’s valuation metric. Some of these teams might make skill based cuts, but may also not have a burning need to do so.
The teams in or near the lower left quadrant do not have much cap wiggle room but also have very few contracts that are in serious question. As would be expected, most of these teams have made the playoffs, and several of those within are also very serious Super Bowl contenders. Regardless of how their season ends, most of these teams would be expected to go all in on their rosters for 2024. Some fringe exceptions include the Giants, who did not do well in 2023 but also have much locked up in guaranteed salaries in players like Daniel Jones, or the Saints who nominally have not guaranteed many salaries but will do so once their annual restructures take place.
No team is dominantly placed in the top right quadrant, which would indicate teams that have plenty to spend but could also stand to turn over a few high expenditure spots on their roster. Instead, what is notable is the cluster of teams on the right side, and mostly on the lower right, indicating teams that have tighter cap situations, but could remedy that quickly with renegotiations of contracts–either negatively via cutting players or demanding pay cuts from them, or in a mildly positive manner by restructuring their salaries. It is this cluster where the lion’s share of action might take place.
The Chargers break the graph in this regard by having over $70 million in such salary at play, but it is barely so due to Keenan Allen barely making this list as the 100th player with over $20 million in cash due in 2024. Despite turning 32 this year, Allen’s performance has been solid enough that a restructure seems more likely than being cut. Practically, Allen’s place on this list should likely be taken by Corey Linsley, who is likely to retire, but doesn’t show up due to otherwise low negative contract fate odds that can’t be foreseen in this manner.
But there are several other players alongside Allen for the team to consider: his fellow wide receiver in Mike Williams, both starting edge rushers in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa (with Tuli Tuipulotu waiting in the wings behind them) and linebacker Eric Kendricks. Yet this graph would be more extreme in bounds had the Chargers not already cut Sebastian Joseph-Day a few weeks ago. With a complete overhaul at general manager and head coach coming for the Chargers, it could also portend similar overhaul on the roster.
Meanwhile, among other teams in this cluster on the right side:
With the deadline for unrestricted free agent signings counting toward the compensatory formula having passed…
In this week's OTC Podcast: NFL draft trades A quick look at new wide receiver…
With the final outcomes in for this years option eligible rookies I thought it would…
We had a little discussion over the last few days about discounting of future draft…
With the 2024 NFL Draft in the books we now have a final estimate for…
With the second round of the 2024 draft in the books I wanted to go…
